Reliability level III method in design of square pillar resting on weak floor stratum     

W. M. Pytel 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》1990,8(2):149-162

Summary Current methods of design of pillars resting on weak floor strata involve only a deterministic, conventional safety factor calculation, based on material parameters treated as the mean values taken from observations. In a case where high parameters variability occurs, these methods may lead to fatal design errors resulting in excessive pillar settlement and roof falls. Therefore, to include the influence of parameters quality, the new approach based on reliability level III method was developed. Consideration was given to the identification of the system parameters importance, and to density function for the safety factor treated as a random variable. Design procedure involving floor probability of failure was illustrated by numerical examples.  相似文献   

Seismic recognition of local inhomogeneities     

J. Batllo  F. Goltsman  D. Kalinin  J. Pous 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1990,132(4):639-652

A simple method to contour local inhomogeneities using seismic data is proposed. It formalizes an approximate inversion method which is based on the interpretation of local inhomogeneities as making the differences between an actual seismic data set and a previous reference model. It uses the optimal statistical criteria of parameter estimation and recognition and the ray representation of the waves spreading. Any combination of direct, reflected and/or other types of waves may be used as the database. Inhomogeneities, having a size two times above the wavelength of the seismic waves, can be resolved. Laboratory experiments, using ultrasonic waves and analysis of data from field experiments, confirmed the theoretical results. The method can be used to search for ore bodies, kimberlite cubes, oiltraps, etc.  相似文献   

Entropy estimation of hydrological extremes     

N. C. Lind  H. P. Hong 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1991,5(1):77-87

The method of Relative Entropy with Fractile constraints (REF method) is explained and applied to model extreme compound hydrological phenomena, such as extreme sea levels under storm conditions. Also presented is a simple method of Tail Entropy Approximation (TEA), which amounts to a correction of traditional statistical estimates for extreme observations.Distribution assumptions are necessary but downplayed in the REF method, relegating the prior distribution to the role of an extrapolation function. The estimates are objective in an information-theoretical sense. They also satisfy a strict requirement of self-consistency that is generally not satisfied by standard statistical methods: invariance under monotonic transformations of the random variable.Historical records of storm surge levels in the Netherlands and annual maximum tidal heights for Sheerness, UK, are used as examples. Comparison is made with distributions obtained using other methods.It is concluded that the tail entropy approximation provides simple, objective estimates of extremes in the tail beyond the range of observations.  相似文献   

THE RESPONSE OF SUMMER DRYNESS/WETNESS PROBABILITY IN NORTH CHINA TO GLOBAL WARMING   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Huang Jiayou 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1994,8(1):41-50

Using the data of summer(June—August)precipitation during the period of 1951—1990 in 14 stations over NorthChina,the wetness probability(WP)series based on gamma distribution has been built.Main temporal and spatial char-acteristics for the series of WP in the stations are extracted by using empirical orthogonal functions(EOFs).The spatialpatterns show that the dryness/wetness variations in the stations in the area are consistent with each other and its maincharacteristics can be represented by the WP series in Beijing.Having analysed the WP series of 120 years(1870—1989)in Beijing,the results show that the dry tendency has a re-sponse to the global warming.The variation of the dryness/wetness in the stations is associated with the temperaturevariation in the Northern Hemisphere.Their relation is negative.The degree of the reliance is associated with the centuryvariation of the temperature.  相似文献   

则木河与小江断裂交汇区地震危险性的概率预测     

程万正 《四川地震》1994,(4):8-12

本文针对则木河与小江断裂交汇区的强震趋势问题，给出了地震危险性的分析方法，结果及问题讨论。  相似文献   

一次较成功的中期地震概率预测实例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄德瑜  庄昆元 《中国地震》1994,10(1):72-78

１９８８年底依据地震活动性资料，运用ＭＹＣＩＮ不精确推理方法，提出了１９８９年及稍长时间的中国大陆中期地震趋势预测概率图，这是一次较成功的中期地震概率预测实例。  相似文献   

1989年大同—阳高地震前后的地震危险性分析及概率预测     

秦长源 《山西地震》1994,(4):45-47

通过对山西境内地震序列的分析计算，得出一个适合山西地区地震活动的概率模型。并以此模型对１９８９年前后的地震活动进行了计算，给出１９８９年以来山西地震频繁活动的理论依据，对今后的地震活动进行了预测。  相似文献   

宁夏及青海地震活动性统计指标及未来地震趋势的综合概率预报     

许文俊 《高原地震》1995,(2)

本文叙述了地震活动的综合概率预报方法，并对宁夏及青海地区（３５°００’－４１°００’Ｎ，１００°００’－１０７°４０’Ｅ）１９７０年以来的地震活动资料进行了统计计算，对１９９２年－１９９３年该区地震活动进行了综合预报效能检验。并据此对该区１９９４年－１９９５年的地震趋势做了估计。  相似文献   

中国大陆原地复发强震的基本特征及其预测   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：7  

罗灼礼  闻学泽 《地震》1995,(1):1-11

在印度板块与欧亚块相碰撞形成的喜马拉雅弧板块边界力作用下，中国大陆有自己独特的现代构造运动和地震活动基本格架。格架是两组近似于对数螺线的现代构造滑移线，即最大剪切应力和剪切应变集中释放的区，带。在这种格架控制下，强震和大震在原地或基本在原地重复发生是中国大陆地震活动的重要特征。本文还提出了ｉ－ｆ－ｊ复发轮回模式和估计当前轮回强震复发时间的概率分布以及计算未来强震复发概率分式。为中，长期预测原地复发  相似文献   

临汾地震安全性评价的极值理论方法     

彭美煊 《高原地震》1995,(1)

本文根据极值理论建立了烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的平均重现期公式，根据最大熵原理建立了未来Ｔ年烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的概率和烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的平均重现期之间的关系式。利用１０２２─１９９３年的地震资料，计算了临汾（３６．１０°Ｎ，１１１．５０°Ｅ）周围４级以上地震在临汾造成的烈度，绘制了未来１００年临汾的烈度超越概率曲线（地震危险性曲线）。结果表明，计算场地烈度的极值理论方法可作为地震危险性分析的综合概率法的补充和验证。  相似文献