International and national climate policies for aviation: a review     

Jörgen Larsson  Anna Elofsson  Thomas Sterner  Jonas Åkerman 《Climate Policy》2019,19(6):787-799

Aviation constitutes about 2.5% of all energy-related CO₂ emissions and in addition there are non-CO₂ effects. In 2016, the ICAO decided to implement a Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and in 2017 the EU decided on faster emission reductions in its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which since 2012 includes the aviation sector. The effects of these policies on the expected development of air travel emissions from 2017 to 2030 have been analyzed. For the sample country Sweden, the analysis shows that when emissions reductions in other sectors are attributed to the aviation sector as a result of the EU ETS and CORSIA, carbon emissions are expected to reduce by ?0.8% per year (however if non-CO₂ emissions are included in the analysis, then emissions will increase). This is much less than what is needed to achieve the 2°C target. Our analysis of potential national aviation policy instruments shows that there are legally feasible options that could mitigate emissions in addition to the EU ETS and CORSIA. Distance-based air passenger taxes are common among EU Member States and through increased ticket prices these taxes can reduce demand for air travel and thus reduce emissions. Tax on jet fuel is an option for domestic aviation and for international aviation if bilateral agreements are concluded. A quota obligation for biofuels is a third option.

Key policy insights

• Existing international climate policies for aviation will not deliver any major emission reductions.

• Policymakers who want to significantly push the aviation sector to contribute to meeting the 2°C target need to work towards putting in place tougher international policy instruments in the long term, and simultaneously implement temporary national policy instruments in the near-term.

• Distance-based air passenger taxes, carbon taxes on jet fuel and quota obligations for biofuels are available national policy options; if they are gradually increased, and harmonized with other countries, they can help to significantly reduce emissions.

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Targeting carbon dioxide removal in the European Union     

Oliver Geden  Glen P. Peters  Vivian Scott 《Climate Policy》2019,19(4):487-494

In principle, many climate policymakers have accepted that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement’s mitigation targets, but they have avoided proposing by whom CDR might be delivered. Given its role in international climate policy, the European Union (EU) might be expected to lead the way. But among EU climate policymakers so far there is little talk on CDR, let alone action. Here we assess how best to ‘target’ CDR to motivate EU policymakers exploring which CDR target strategy may work best to start dealing with CDR on a meaningful scale. A comprehensive CDR approach would focus on delivering the CDR volumes required from the EU by 2100, approximately at least 50 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO₂, according to global model simulations aiming to keep warming below 2°C. A limited CDR approach would focus on an intermediate target to deliver the CDR needed to reach ‘net zero emissions’ (i.e. the gross negative emissions needed to offset residual positive emissions that are too expensive or even impossible to mitigate). We argue that a comprehensive CDR approach may be too intimidating for EU policymakers. A limited CDR approach that only addresses the necessary steps to reach the (intermediate) target of ‘net zero emissions’ is arguably more achievable, since it is a better match to the existing policy paradigm and would allow for a pragmatic phase-in of CDR while avoiding outright resistance by environmental NGOs and the broader public.

Key policy insights

• Making CDR an integral part of EU climate policy has the potential to significantly reshape the policy landscape.

• Burden sharing considerations would probably play a major role, with comprehensive CDR prolonging the disparity and tensions between progressives and laggards.

• Introducing limited CDR in the context of ‘net zero’ pathways would retain a visible primary focus on decarbonization but acknowledge the need for a significant enhancement of removals via ‘natural’ and/or ‘engineered’ sinks.

• A decarbonization approach that intends to lead to a low level of ‘residual emissions’ (to be tackled by a pragmatic phase-in of CDR) should be the priority of EU climate policy.

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美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球温室气体排放的影响     

苏鑫  滕飞 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(1):74-83

现有研究表明美国退出《巴黎协定》将会在2025年导致其国内排放增加约1.2 Gt CO₂-eq,然而美国退出《巴黎协定》对全球气候治理的影响不仅限于此,还包括资金效应、政治效应,以及惯性效应等对全球排放的间接和长期影响。本文通过构建体现不同效应的全球温室气体排放情景,分析了美国退出《巴黎协定》后对全球温室气体排放可能造成的不同影响。结果表明,美国退出《巴黎协定》的自身效应、资金效应、对伞形国家的政治效应和对发展中国家的政治效应,将分别导致全球2030年的年温室气体净排放量(扣除碳汇吸收量后的温室气体排放量)上升2.0、1.0、1.0和1.9 Gt CO₂-eq,并导致全球2015—2100年的累计排放量分别上升246.9、145.3、102.0和270.2 Gt CO₂-eq。为防止美国退出《巴黎协定》的不利影响进一步扩大,中国应积极引领全球气候治理制度的建设与发展,与各国紧密合作全面平衡地推进《巴黎协定》的落实和实施。  相似文献   

温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线检验与减排路径的冲击动态——基于黑龙江省统计核算数据   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张滨  吕洁华 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(1):84-94

基于2001-2015年黑龙江省温室气体排放统计核算数据,对地区GDP与温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线关系检验呈现倒U型,预期2019年达到理论拐点;通过偏最小二乘回归模型得到4个减排路径的年平均减排效果顺序依次为单位GDP化石能源消费量减少、经济结构调整、人均GDP增长、贸易结构变化;减排路径对应脉冲响应函数的动态冲击效果分别为波动性增排、收敛性减排、发散性减排、转变的排放作用;推动黑龙江省温室气体减排的路径顺序为控制化石能源消费量、优化经济结构、发展低碳经济、调整贸易结构。  相似文献   

复合体系有机气体氧化生成二次有机气溶胶研究进展          下载免费PDF全文

陈晓文  李坤  李建龙  杜林 《大气科学学报》2023,46(5):641-654

生物源与人为源有机气体氧化形成的二次有机气溶胶(SOA)对气候变化和人类健康具有重要影响。SOA的产生与其前体物研究已取得了一些进展,但由于有机气体之间存在复合相互作用以及SOA形成机制复杂,目前对不同有机气体混合体系中SOA的形成认知还比较匮乏。因此,深入了解有机气体多源、复杂的相互作用,摸清有机气体的大气氧化机制、SOA的形成及影响等对深入理解真实大气有机气体化学演变具有指导意义。本文旨在了解复合体系有机气体氧化生成SOA的相关研究进展。一方面总结了复合体系有机气体产生SOA质量浓度、产率、成分、挥发性、光学性质等的变化,侧重于实验室复合体系有机气体氧化对SOA形成的多重影响以及SOA组成元素、分子构成的变化特征,并总结了目前实验室基于模型对复合体系SOA生成的模拟研究和拟合情况;另一方面探究了环境因素,如相对湿度(RH)、温度(T)以及无机气体,如氮氧化物(NO_x)、二氧化硫(SO₂)、氨气(NH₃)等对复合体系有机气体形成SOA的影响。  相似文献   

中国居民食物消费碳排放时空演变趋势及其驱动机制分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

曹志宏  郝晋珉  邢红萍 《地理科学进展》2020,39(1):91-99

食物生产是影响温室效应气体排放的重要方面,由于食物类型不同其碳排强度存在较大的差异,因此当前中国居民食物消费快速演替必然会对生态碳环境产生重要影响。论文利用洛伦兹曲线和基尼系数,研究1997—2016年中国城乡居民食物消费在生产过程中碳排放时空演变及其主要驱动因子。主要结论如下：① 在数量上,中国居民食物消费碳排放总量和人均量整体都呈现逐渐的增长刚性,但仍属于低碳消费模式;② 在结构上,各类型食物碳排放演变呈现显著的分异态势,整体上动物性食物碳排放增长速度快于植物性食物碳排放减少速度;③ 在城乡差异上,城镇和乡村居民食物消费碳排放在数量、结构和趋势上表现出显著的城乡二元属性,但近年城乡差异表现出减缓趋势;④ 在空间上,各地食物消费碳排放呈现较显著的民族性、地域性、集聚性和中心“塌陷”的特征,碳排放密度高值主要分布在直辖市和沿海经济相对发达地区;⑤ 在驱动力上,结构演替是全国居民食物消费碳排放总量整体变化的主要驱动因素,而人口数量是各地地域空间差异分布的主要驱动因子。  相似文献   

温室气体的卫星遥感—进展与趋势     

刘毅  王婧  车轲  蔡兆男  杨东旭  吴林 《遥感学报》2021,25(1):53-64

二氧化碳和甲烷减排是控制全球增温最核心的手段,传统的人为碳排放计算主要依赖于在线监测和清单算法,2019年第49届1PCC全会明确了利用大气观测通过"自上而下"通量计算对排放清单进行支撑和验证,因此了解大气遥感碳监测发展趋势以及同化反演技术方法成为了中国应对国际气候变化事务亟待探明的重要问题.根据卫星遥感技术发展进程和...  相似文献   

Major contribution to carbon neutrality by China’s geosciences and geological technologies     

Yao Wang  Chi-hui Guo  Shu-rong Zhuang  Xi-jie Chen  Li-qiong Jia  Ze-yu Chen  Zi-long Xia  Zhen Wu 《China Geology》2021,4(2):329-352

In the context of global climate change, geosciences provide an important geological solution to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality, China’s geosciences and geological technologies can play an important role in solving the problem of carbon neutrality. This paper discusses the main problems, opportunities, and challenges that can be solved by the participation of geosciences in carbon neutrality, as well as China’s response to them. The main scientific problems involved and the geological work carried out mainly fall into three categories: (1) Carbon emission reduction technology (natural gas hydrate, geothermal, hot dry rock, nuclear energy, hydropower, wind energy, solar energy, hydrogen energy); (2) carbon sequestration technology (carbon capture and storage, underground space utilization); (3) key minerals needed to support carbon neutralization (raw materials for energy transformation, carbon reduction technology). Therefore, geosciences and geological technologies are needed: First, actively participate in the development of green energy such as natural gas, geothermal energy, hydropower, hot dry rock, and key energy minerals, and develop exploration and exploitation technologies such as geothermal energy and natural gas; the second is to do a good job in geological support for new energy site selection, carry out an in-depth study on geotechnical feasibility and mitigation measures, and form the basis of relevant economic decisions to reduce costs and prevent geological disasters; the third is to develop and coordinate relevant departments of geosciences, organize and carry out strategic research on natural resources, carry out theoretical system research on global climate change and other issues under the guidance of earth system science theory, and coordinate frontier scientific information and advanced technological tools of various disciplines. The goal of carbon neutrality provides new opportunities and challenges for geosciences research. In the future, it is necessary to provide theoretical and technical support from various aspects, enhance the ability of climate adaptation, and support the realization of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.  相似文献   

集聚空间组织型式对中国地市尺度工业SO2排放的影响     

胡志强  苗长虹  袁丰 《地理学报》2019,74(10):2045-2061

集聚外部性是集聚影响工业污染排放的重要机制,不同的集聚空间组织型式具有不同的污染排放行为和减排效果。以中国285个地市工业SO₂排放为例,依据集聚经济理论,将集聚空间组织型式细分为集聚密度、企业地理临近度、专业化、多样性、相关多样性、非相关多样性等不同类型,在系统分析工业SO₂排放与集聚空间格局的基础上,通过构建计量经济模型,考察了不同集聚空间组织型式对工业SO₂排放强度的影响。结果表明：① 工业SO₂排放强度与工业集聚密度在空间上具有非对称性,污染排放强度西高东低,工业集聚密度、企业地理临近、多样性、相关和非相关多样性为东中高西部低;② 工业集聚对工业SO₂排放强度的影响存在空间溢出效应,相邻地区集聚密度、多样性和相关多样性水平的上升有利于本区域工业污染排放强度的下降,但专业化水平的上升则会提升本区域的工业污染排放强度;③ 提高集聚密度、引导企业集中布局有利于工业SO₂排放强度下降,多样且关联的产业组织结构有利于污染减排,而专业化和非关联产业的集中会提高污染排放强度;④ 集聚型式对工业SO₂排放强度的影响存在区域和城市规模上的异质性,集聚密度、企业地理临近、多样性和相关多样性对中西部污染减排的作用比东部明显,专业化和非相关多样性不利于东中部地区的污染减排;城区人口规模20万以下的小城市提高集聚密度、减少多样性特别是非相关多样性更有利于污染减排;城区人口规模20~50万的小城市和50~100万的中等城市,提高企业的地理接近度和多样性水平特别是相关多样性水平,有利于其降低污染排放强度;城区人口规模在100万以上的大城市,提高集聚密度和产业多样性水平在一定程度上有利于其污染减排,但其减排效果因拥挤效应而明显下降;⑤ 进一步降低工业SO₂排放强度,需要走集聚化道路,坚持提高集聚密度,因地制宜引导企业集中布局,着力提高产业在关联基础上的多样性水平,加强区域间联防联控,重视区域间的产业联系与环保合作。  相似文献   

2019年10月12日广西玉林北流MS 5.2地震深部孕震环境     

赵慈平  胡久常  周艺颖  郭明瑞 《地震地磁观测与研究》2021,42(2):116-118

地震是地壳或岩石圈构造变形的一种方式,施加于边界断层及其活动块体内的力决定了它们的变形方式(伸展、挤压、走滑),而变形(或地震)的空间分布受岩石圈流变学控制,尤其是受断层和其间块体强度以及这些块体与岩石圈耦合作用的控制( Thatcher,2009).而火山岩浆作为低粘度熔体,其活动通常也会产生地震,地震类型和大小与岩...  相似文献