A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)     

Milan Stojković  Jasna Plavšić  Stevan Prohaska  Dragutin Pavlović  Jovan Despotović 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(3):387-400

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.  相似文献   

Impacts of droughts on low flows and water quality near power stations     

Gianbattista Bussi  Paul G. Whitehead 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(6):898-913

ABSTRACT

Power plants often use river waters for cooling purposes and can be sensitive to droughts and low flows. Water quality is also a concern, due to algal blooms and sediment loads that might clog filters. We assessed the impacts of droughts on river flow and water quality from the point of view of power plant operation. The INCA (INtegrated CAtchment) water quality model was coupled with a climate model to create a dataset of flow and water quality time series, using the River Trent (UK) as a case study. The result hints to a significant decrease in flows and an increase in phosphorus concentrations, potentially enhancing algal production. Power plants should expect more stress in the future based on the results of this study, due to reduced cooling water availability and decreasing upstream water quality. This issue might have serious consequences also on the whole national power network.  相似文献   

Comparing performance indicators to characterize the water supply to the demands of the Guadiana River basin (Spain)     

Carla Palop-Donat  Javier Paredes-Arquiola  Abel Solera  Joaquín Andreu 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(7):1060-1074

ABSTRACT

Water indicators and indices are useful tools to assess river basin performance, that is, to measure whether the basin operates satisfactorily under a wide range of possible future demands and hydrological conditions. Spanish regulations assess the performance of water demands by using reliability indicators (RIs), established by law in 2008. This article raises the possibility of updating RIs by comparing them with sustainability indicators (SIs). SIs are widely used for the assessment of river basin performance and several policy scenarios. We applied a water allocation model to the Guadiana River basin in Spain to compare indicators under three scenarios. The study was framed within the science of socio-hydrology, combining the physical environment of a water system with its influence on social aspects. SIs gave better results than RIs when comparing future scenarios. We also propose the introduction of a vulnerability indicator into Spanish regulations.  相似文献   

Application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) at different temporal scales to reduce the uncertainty level in modelled river flows     

Ragab Ragab  Alexandra Kaelin  Muhammad Afzal  Ioanna Panagea 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(11):1856-1871

ABSTRACT

In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows.  相似文献   

1967—2016年黄河上游河曲地区降水变化特征研究     

杨春华  燕振宁  周丹  保广裕 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2020,14(2):43-49

利用1967~2016年黄河上游河曲地区的5个气象站观测气象站的逐日地面降水和气温资料,利用气候变化趋势分析、距平、Mann-kendall 时间序列突变及趋势检验方法分析了该地区气温变化特征、不同类型各等级降水量及降水日数的气候特征。结果表明：(1)近50年黄河上游河曲地区年均气温以0.459℃/10a趋势显著上升,上升速度低于全国其它地区,且在2002年气温发生突变后升温加剧；(2)年降水量和降水日数呈减少趋势,主要是由夏季小雨量和小雨日数的减少引起；(3)在2002年气温突增后,强降水对总降水量贡献率增加,且年降水量和降水日数波动幅度也明显增大,这可能预示该地区洪涝灾害的风险在增加。降水日数的贡献率增加,增加明显的是中雨日数和小雨日数,分别增加了1.1%和1.7%。  相似文献   

第二松花江流域夏季降水年际增量预测模型研究     

姜忠宝  王秀娟  陈长胜  李尚锋 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2020,14(5):115-121

利用1980—2016年第二松花江流域（SSR）夏季（6—8月）平均降水量资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均环流场资料、NOAA的月平均海温场资料，采用年际增量预测方法，通过分析与SSR夏季降水年际增量相关的环流及海温，确定了超前12个月内的6个预测因子，包括：11月东亚200hPa纬向风、12月西藏高原-2指数、12月赤道中东太平洋200hPa纬向风、2月印度洋海温、10月西太平洋暖池海温、4月东亚100hPa经向风。在此基础上利用这 6个预测因子，利用1980—2010资料建立SSR夏季降水年际增量的统计预测模型，最后根据年际增量给出SSR夏季降水的预测结果。经检验，1981—2010年，SSR夏季降水年际增量的预测拟合系数是0.83，SSR夏季降水预测结果拟合系数为0.67，SSR夏季降水预测结果相对均方根误差为15%，均通过了显著性检验；对2011—2016年进行试报实验，该模型也很好的预测出降水的年际增量变化趋势，除2014年以外，SSR夏季降水预测结果相对均方根误差绝对值都控制在23%以内，2016年仅为-9.9%。因此，通过预测降水的年际增量，进而再预测降水的方法，具有一定的预测技巧，可作为有效方法投入实际业务应用。  相似文献   

The Evaporation Effect on the Isotopes in the Yellow River Water     

SU Xiaosi  LIN Xueyu  LIAO Zisheng 《东北亚地学研究》2001,(2)

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＥｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌｉｓｏｔｏｐｅｔｒａｃｉｎｇｉｓｏｎｅｏｆｔｈｅｍｏｓｔｌｙａｄｏｐｔｅｄａｄｖａｎｃｅｄｔｅｃｈｎｉｑｕｅｓｉｎｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｆｈｙｄｒｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌｃｙｃｌｅ (ＣｌａｒｋａｎｄＦｒｉｔｚ,1 997;Ｆ  相似文献   

A preliminary study on sediment flux in the Changjiang Delta during the postglacial period   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

李保华  李从先  沈焕庭 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2003,46(7):743-752

During the last 7000 years since the Changjiang Delta was formed, how much sediment brought by the Changjiang River remained in the modern Changjiang Delta? And how much sediment was delivered into the sea and adjacent coasts? These are very important que…  相似文献   

东昆仑阿拉克湖地区第四纪水系演化过程及其趋势   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

向树元  王国灿  林启祥  吴燕玲  张智勇 《地质科技情报》2003,22(4):16-20

根据第四系沉积物的沉积时代、沉积类型及盆山耦合与迁移规律,将东昆仑阿拉克湖地区第四纪水系变迁划分了4个阶段：早更新世小型内陆盆地无序水系阶段;中更新世冰川水系与东流水系阶段;晚更新世柴达木盆地内陆水系向南溯源侵蚀阶段;全新世黄河外泄水系形成与发展阶段。根据研究区及相邻地区黄河水系和柴达木盆地内陆水系的溯源侵蚀发展历史及趋势分析,认为研究区未来水系发展趋势不一定是加鲁河袭夺鄂陵湖、扎陵湖两湖及黄河水系,而可能是黄河加快下蚀作用和溯源侵蚀,鄂陵湖和扎陵湖将逐渐消失成为河流,黄河水系最终将袭夺柴达木内陆盆地水系。  相似文献   

CLOBAL CHARM OF THE CHANGJIANG RIVER DELTA     

CHEN Shu-peng  ZHOU Cheng-hu  CHEN Qiu-xiao 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,(4)

1SPLENDOROFHISTORICALCULTURE InChina,theChangjiang(Yangtze)RiverDelta①gen-erallymeansanadvancedproductivityandculture,whichaffectsdeeplynotonlythewholeChinabutal-sotheAsian-Pacificregion,evenEuropeandAfrica. 1.1CradlefortheCommunicationandPropagationofCivilization ThedevelopmentcourseoftheChangjiangRiverDelta'scultureisdevious,buttheNeolithicHemuduCultureexcavatedinYuyaoCityofZhejiangProvinceindicatestheadvancedpaddyriceculture;MajiabangCulture5000aB.P.andEastBridgeRuin…  相似文献