Models of natural and human dynamics in forest landscapes: Cross-site and cross-cultural synthesis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Miguel F. Acevedo  J. Baird Callicott  Donald Lyons  Judith Rosales  Magdiel Ablan  Giorgio Tonella  Emilio Vilanova 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):846-866

We synthesize the study of coupled natural and human systems across sites and cultures through a process of simplification and abstraction based on multiple dimensions of human-nature connectedness: satisfaction of basic needs, psycho-cultural connectedness and regulation of use of natural resources. We thus provide both a place-based and general understanding of value-driven anthropogenic environmental change and response. Two questions guide this research: what are the crucial stakeholder values that drive land use decisions and thus land cover change? And how can knowledge of these values be used to make decisions and policies that sustain both the human and natural systems in a place? To explore these questions we build simulation models of four study sites, two in the State of Texas, United States, and two in Venezuela. All include protected areas, though they differ in the specifics of vegetation and land use. In the Texas sites, relatively affluent individuals are legally converting forests to residential, commercial, and industrial uses, while in Venezuela landless settlers are extra-legally converting forests for purposes of subsistence agriculture. Contemporary modeling techniques now facilitate simulations of stakeholder and ecosystem dynamics revealing emergent patterns. Such coupled human and natural systems are currently recognized as a form of biocomplexity. Our modeling framework is flexible enough to allow adaptation to each of the study sites, capturing the essential features of the respective natural and anthropogenic land use changes and stakeholder reactions. The interactions between human stakeholders are simulated using multi-agent models that act on forest landscape models, and receive feedback of the effects of these actions on ecological habitats and hydrological response. The multi-agent models employ a formal logic-based method for the Venezuelan sites and a decision analysis approach using multi-attribute utility functions for the Texas sites, differing more in style and emphasis than in substance. Our natural-systems models are generic and can be tailored according to site-specific conditions. Similar models of tree growth and patch transitions are used for all the study sites and the differing responses to environmental variables are specified for each local species and terrain conditions.  相似文献   

Tidal inundation mapping under enhanced land subsidence in Semarang,Central Java Indonesia   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Muh Aris Marfai  Lorenz King 《Natural Hazards》2008,44(1):93-109

Tidal inundation by high tide under enhanced land subsidence is a damaging phenomenon and a major threat to the Semarang urban area in Indonesia. It impacts on economic activities, as well as the cost of an emergency program and causes interruption of pubic services, danger of infectious diseases and injury to human lives. This study examines a spatial analysis tool on the GIS-raster system for the tidal inundation mapping based on the subsidence-benchmark data and modified detail digital elevation model. Neighborhood operation and iteration model as a spatial analysis tool have been applied in order to calculate the encroachment of the tidal inundation on the coastal area. The resulting map shows that the tidal flood spreads to the lowland area and causes the inundation of coastal settlement, infrastructure, as well as productive agricultural land, i.e., the fish-pond area. The monitoring of the vulnerable area due to the tidal inundation under the scenario of extended land subsidence plays an important role in long-term coastal zone management in Semarang.  相似文献   

The state of land subsidence and prediction approaches due to groundwater withdrawal in China   总被引：13，自引：6，他引：7  

Ye-Shuang Xu  Shui-Long Shen  Zheng-Yin Cai  Guo-Yun Zhou 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(1):123-135

This article gives a general introduction to land subsidence with the prediction approaches due to withdrawal of groundwater in three subsided/subsiding regions in China: the deltaic plain of Yangtse River (YRDP), North China Plain (NCP), and Fenwei Plain (FP). On YRDP, Shanghai is the typical subsided/subsiding city; on NCP Tianjin is the typical subsided/subsiding city, and on FP Taiyuan is the typical subsided/subsiding city. The subsided area with subsidence over 200 mm on YRDP is about 10,000 km² and the maximum subsided value reached 2.9 m at Shanghai; on NCP the subsided area reached 60,000 km² with the maximum subsidence of 3.9 m at Tianjing; on FP the subsided area is relatively smaller than that on the other two plains and is about 1,135 km² with maximum subsidence of 3.7 m at Taiyuan city. In order to protect the civil and industrial facilities, it is necessary to predict the future development of land subsidence based on present state. Many researchers proposed several approaches to predict the land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal according to different geological conditions and groundwater withdrawal practice. This article classifies these approaches into five categories: (i) statistical methods; (ii) 1D numerical method; (iii) quasi-3D seepage model; (iv) 3D seepage model; (v) fully coupled 3D model. In China, the former four categories are presently employed in the prediction practice and their merits and demerits are discussed. According to the prediction practice, 3D seepage model is the best method presently.  相似文献   

Background concentrations of elements in surface soils and their changes as affected by agriculture use in the desert-oasis ecotone in the middle of Heihe River Basin,North-west China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yong-zhong Su  Rong Yang 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2008

The concentrations of twenty four chemical elements in the surface layer of natural desert soils and the cultivated farmland soils were measured at a desert-oasis ecotone in the middle of Heihe river basin, north-west China. Background values were estimated for (a) major elements (Si 335.3 g kg^− 1, Al 49.4 g kg^− 1, Fe 19.1 g kg^− 1, Ca 29.4 g kg^− 1, Mg 8.9 g kg^− 1, K 20.1 g kg^− 1, Na 17.5 g kg^− 1 and P 0.338 g kg^− 1), (b) heavy metals and non-metals (Cr 55.8 mg kg^− 1, Mn 404.8 mg kg^− 1, Ni 17.7 mg kg^− 1, Cu 5.1 mg kg^− 1, Zn 33.7 mg kg^− 1, Pb 15.5 mg kg^− 1 and As 5.2 mg kg^− 1) and (c) other trace elements (Ti 2.0 mg kg^− 1, V 55.3 mg kg^− 1, Co 5.7 mg kg^− 1, Rb 82.4 mg kg^− 1, Sr 232.9 mg kg^− 1, Y 14.7 mg kg^− 1, Zr 194.9 mg kg^− 1, Nb 7.8 mg kg^− 1 and Ba 720.6 mg kg^− 1). After natural desert soil was cultivated for agricultural use, significant changes in element concentrations occurred under tillage, irrigation and fertilisation management. Compared to natural soil, the for the levels of Si, K, Na, Sr, Zr and Ba decreased, and no changes were observed for Rb, while the values of the other 17 elements increase in agricultural soil from 1.2 to 3.5 times. However, their absolute concentrations are still low, suggesting that the arable soil in this region remains comparatively a clean soil. The increased silt, clay and organic carbon content, under long-term irrigation, enriched the fine-grained materials, and application of fertilisers and manure contributed to the accumulation of most elements in arable soil. The accumulation of elements in agricultural soil increased with increasing cultivation years and extent of soil development.  相似文献   

Pervasive wetland flooding in the glacial drift prairie of North Dakota (USA)     

Paul E. Todhunter  Bradley C. Rundquist 《Natural Hazards》2008,46(1):73-88

This article describes a unique flood hazard, produced by the dramatic expansion of wetlands in Nelson County, located within the North American Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. There has been an unprecedented increase in the number, average size, and permanence of prairie wetlands, and a significant increase in the size of a closed lake (Stump Lake) due to a decade-long wet spell that began in 1993 following a prolonged drying trend. Base-line land cover information from the 1992 USGS National Land Cover Characterization dataset, and a Landsat TM scene acquired 9 July 2001 are used to assess the growth of the closed lake and wetland pond surface areas, and to analyze the type and area of various land cover classes inundated between 1992 and 2001. The open water profile in Nelson County changed from one marked by relatively comparable coverage of closed lake and wetland pond areas in 1992, to one in which wetland open water accounted for the vast majority of total open water in 2001. The bulk of the wetland pond area expansion occurred by displacing existing wetland vegetation and agricultural cropland. Producers responded to the flood hazard by filing Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) claims and enrolling cropland in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), a federal land retirement program. Land taken out of agricultural production has had an enormous impact upon the agricultural sector that forms the economic base of the rural economy. In 2001 the land taken out of production due to CRP enrollment and preventive planting claims represented nearly 42% of Nelson County’s 205.2 K ha base agricultural land. The patterns obtained from this detailed study of Nelson County are likely to be the representative of the more publicized flood disaster occurring within the Devils Lake Basin of North Dakota.  相似文献   

The buckling of plastic oblate hemi-ellipsoidal dome shells under external hydrostatic pressure     

C. T. F. Ross  P. Youster  R. Sadler 《Ocean Engineering》2001,28(7):584

The paper presents a theoretical and an experimental investigation into the buckling of seven oblate hemi-ellipsoidal dome shells under external hydrostatic pressure. Four of the shells were made in glass reinforced plastic and three were made from a thermosetting plastic called solid urethane plastic. All the vessels were tested to destruction. The theoretical study was made with the aid of a non-linear finite element solution, where both geometrical and material non-linearity were allowed for. Good agreement was found between experiment and theory for all the vessels. The very oblate domes failed axisymmetrically. Theoretical convergence was good for the more oblate domes but it was not as good as for the less oblate domes. This may have been because the less oblate domes did not fail in a classical axisymmetric manner as was expected. This work is of much importance in ocean engineering.  相似文献   

A sub-pixel analysis of urbanization effect on land surface temperature and its interplay with impervious surface and vegetation coverage in Indianapolis,United States     

Qihao Weng  Dengsheng Lu 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2008

This study developed an analytical procedure based upon a spectral unmixing model for characterizing and quantifying urban landscape changes in Indianapolis, Indiana, the United States, and for examining the environmental impact of such changes on land surface temperatures (LST). Three dates of Landsat TM/ETM+ images, acquired in 1991, 1995, and 2000, respectively, were utilized to document the historical morphological changes in impervious surface and vegetation coverage and to analyze the relationship between these changes and those occurred in LST. Three fraction endmembers, i.e., impervious surface, green vegetation, and shade, were derived with an unconstrained least-squares solution. A hybrid classification procedure, which combined maximum-likelihood and decision-tree algorithms, was developed to classify the fraction images into land use and land cover classes. Correlation analyses were conducted to investigate the changing relationships of LST with impervious surface and vegetation coverage. Results indicate that multi-temporal fraction images were effective for quantifying the dynamics of urban morphology and for deriving a reliable measurement of environmental variables such as vegetation abundance and impervious surface coverage. Urbanization created an evolved inverse relationship between impervious and vegetation coverage, and brought about new LST patterns because of LST's correlations with both impervious and vegetation coverage. Further researches should be directed to refine spectral mixture modeling by stratification, and by the use of multiple endmembers and hyperspectral imagery.  相似文献   

苏锡常地区地面沉降风险评价管理模型研究初探          下载免费PDF全文

于军  武健强 《江苏地质》2008,32(2):113-117

平原区超采地下水引发的地面沉降地质灾害已成为影响这些地区经济可持续发展的重要制约因素,如何从收益、成本、风险三个方面为决策者提供制定地面沉降相关防治措施的综合支持,实现灾害防治从被动应对向主动防御转变,是地面沉降防治研究领域的新课题。在综合考虑苏锡常地区技术、经济、人类活动等因素基础上,从地面沉降总体风险和地区差异水平出发,提出构建地面沉降风险评价模型及决策支持系统的初步研究思路和方法,为实现地面沉降防治的科学化决策管理进行了探索。  相似文献   

国土资源数据分析及其整合与集成   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

文斌  张文广  张学峰  陈辉 《国土资源信息化》2008,(5):3-6,11

本文详细分析了国土资源数据特点、综合数据来源、产生方式和使用方法等方面,对数据进行了分类,比较了不同的数据格式。在此基础上,阐述了国土资源数据的集成框架,讨论了数据整合和集成的方法和流程,提出了数据整合与集成的三种框架问题。  相似文献   

城镇土地潜力调查评价技术研究与实现     

张博  田党生  戴冠中  武泽江  蒋树魁 《国土资源信息化》2008,(5):12-15

本研究在西安市城镇地籍调查成果和变更调查成果的基础上,利用地籍信息数据库、地价数据库,采用GPS技术、GIS技术和数据库技术,进行了土地利用潜力评价技术研究。该技术结合了近年来西安市土地信息化管理的科技成果,不仅实现了土地利用潜力评价功能,而且建立了评价指标体系和评价模型,利用潜力评价信息系统结合地籍数据库资料,算了西安市土地利用的潜力,为西安市城市土地挖潜指出了方向和目标。  相似文献