区域人口迁移时空溢出效应与动力机制分析     

赵心怡  蒲英霞 《地球信息科学学报》2018,20(6):817-826

区域人口迁移流的规模不仅取决于迁出地与目的地的“双边”要素,也与前期迁移流和周边迁移流息息相关。传统重力模型揭示了区域人口迁移过程的“推-拉”机制,但受制于对时空维度的忽视,无法有效表达迁移流之间的时空依赖关系,因而难以度量区域要素变化对迁移流产生的时空溢出效应。本文引入多种形式的时空依赖结构,构建迁移流时空重力模型,并采用贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛（MCMC）方法进行估计。在此基础上,结合时空效应框架量化区域要素对迁移流的影响,定量分析人口迁移过程的时空溢出效应与动力机制。本文以1985-2015年中国省际人口迁移为例,通过与非空间的动态重力模型估计结果比较,初步表明时间依赖、空间依赖以及时空扩散依赖在区域人口迁移过程中不容忽视;时空维度上,区域要素变化在初期对迁移网络的溢出效应超过对该区域迁移流的直接影响;逐渐衰减的时空溢出效应维持了区域人口迁移规模发展的相对稳定,与动态重力模型估计结果形成了鲜明对比。区域人口规模、人均GDP水平及其时空溢出效应共同驱动中国省际人口迁移系统的发展。耦合时空维度依赖关系的时空重力模型能更好地理解区域人口迁移过程的演化特征,为促进区域人口均衡发展提供科学的决策依据。  相似文献   

1990—2015年中国县市尺度人口收缩的演变特征及影响因素   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘振  戚伟  齐宏纲  刘盛和 《地理研究》2020,39(7):1565-1579

近年来,区域人口收缩问题在全球范围内引起了广泛关注,并且在中国也日益明显。利用1990年、2000年和2010年人口普查数据以及2015年1%人口抽样调查数据,本文在县市尺度上分析了1990—2000年、2000—2010年和2010—2015年三个时期人口收缩区的空间特征及演化趋势,并定量探讨了其形成与演变的影响因素,主要发现如下：① 人口收缩现象在县市尺度非常明显,三个时期人口收缩区占比均超过20%;② 2000—2010年人口收缩区以大面积扩张为主要特征,东北地区、川黔渝地区、长江中游地区最为明显,而东部地区则主要集中在江苏北部和福建西部等局部范围;③ 2010—2015年人口收缩转缓慢增长成为主要特征,仅东北地区、河南等人口收缩区仍有所扩张;④ 人均GDP和非农就业占比等经济发展水平因素对人口收缩区的形成影响显著,而经济发展速度因素则与人口收缩的演变密切相关;⑤ 除经济因素外,人口自然增长因素对人口收缩区形成及演变的影响均非常显著,且其作用呈增强趋势。  相似文献   

东海海域典型赤潮水体反射光谱模拟研究     

何烁  楼绣林  史爱琴  厉冬玲  王隽  张华国 《海洋与湖沼》2019,50(3):525-531

东海原甲藻(Prorocentrum donghaiense Lu)是我国东海海域的典型赤潮藻种,其在水体中通常呈垂直非均匀分布,并存在季节性和日内的垂直迁移现象。本文通过量化垂直迁移过程中东海原甲藻的分布状态,利用Hydrolight软件数值模拟各状态下的水体反射光谱,研究其光谱特征和变化规律。利用叶绿素浓度高斯垂向模型表征东海原甲藻在水体中的垂直分布,结合东海近岸海域二类水体的生物光学模型,模拟得到垂直迁移过程中东海原甲藻赤潮水体的反射光谱。对比分析叶绿素浓度垂向分布参数(背景叶绿素浓度、甲藻主体水层厚度、水体总生物量和叶绿素浓度峰值深度)对水体反射光谱的影响。研究结果表明,在东海原甲藻从次表层向表层垂直向上迁移过程中,水体反射光谱数值在蓝绿波段(400—570nm)减小,在黄红波段(570—720nm)增大,特别是在叶绿素荧光效应波段(680nm)处的变化尤为明显。  相似文献   

基于碳、氮稳定同位素分析中华绒螯蟹(Eriocheir sinensis)幼蟹溯河洄游期食物来源变化     

崔莹  吴旭干  赵峰  李嘉尧  连一霖  王福强 《海洋与湖沼》2019,50(4):822-829

中华绒螯蟹(Eriocheirsinensis)是我国重要的渔业捕捞和水产养殖对象,但野生中华绒螯蟹溯河洄游过程中的摄食生态尚不明确。本论文以长江野生中华绒螯蟹为研究对象,沿其洄游路线设置3个采样区域,采集不同发育时期的幼体及其潜在的食物来源等样品。通过对比分析幼体及食源样品的碳、氮稳定同位素特征,对中华绒螯蟹溯河洄游期的食物组成及变化进行探讨。结果发现,从大眼幼体到幼蟹,碳稳定同位素(δ~(13)C)呈现逐渐变轻的趋势,氮稳定同位素(δ~(15)N)呈现逐渐变重的趋势。表明中华绒螯蟹从大眼幼体到幼蟹的发育过程中,随着幼体不断向上游江段回溯,食物中陆源物质的比例逐渐增大,食物来源由浮游性食物向底栖性食物转变,且营养级逐渐增高。综合分析证明,在生境多样化、食物来源复杂的河流生态系统中,δ~(13)C值呈现的是食物来源的区域性和特异性,可以识别中华绒螯蟹洄游过程中的食源变化。δ~(15)N值虽受到区域氮源以及生物地球化学过程的影响,仍能体现幼体发育过程中营养级的差异。  相似文献   

北半球夏季中高纬海洋声散射层分布研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄二辉  杨燕明  文洪涛  周鸿涛 《海洋学报》2019,41(7):52-64

利用第八次北极调查走航ADCP后向散射强度数据,结合太阳高度、海冰密集度和实测水体环境参数数据,统计分析了中高纬海洋声散射层的时空变化特征。结果表明,纬度越高,声散射层在海表滞留时间越短,即使在极昼期间及全海冰覆盖海域,虽然其迁移幅度和后向散射强度减弱,但仍受太阳高度变化影响,且二者具有较强的时序相关性;在北极中央海域,不仅声散射层迁移活动较弱,且出现无明显散射层的情况,可能是因为该海域浮游动物和鱼类聚集度相对较低且迁移活动微弱,超出了本文所用ADCP的探测精度范围;从鄂霍次克海至白令海西南海域,往返ADCP数据均显示有两个后向散射强度上高下低,但垂直迁移时间同步的声散射层,且二者间距随纬度增加而逐渐减小并合为一体,这可能是由不同生活习性的海洋生物造成的。  相似文献   

地震资料中柱状流体运移通道形态参数及其地质意义     

张伯达  雷振宇  郑文义  李政坤  蔡达仰  张金锋  苏明  杨睿 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2019,39(3):171-181

深部流体在向上运移的过程中,能够形成垂直-近似垂直的柱状通道,如气烟囱构造、流体逸散管道等。利用高分辨率地震资料,能够直观地对这些柱状地球物理异常进行精细的描述与刻画,从而统计其形态参数。综合不同海域的研究成果,本次研究系统总结归纳了柱状流体运移通道的8个重要参数,分别是发育层位、终止层位、平面形状、直径、高度和宽高比、反射偏移、椭圆率、拟合椭圆方位角。形态参数分别与通道群在平面上的展布方位、特殊的海底异常地貌(如海底麻坑、丘状体等)、深部构造发育与分布(如底辟、断层等)等进行耦合关联,能够进一步揭示柱状流体运移通道的地质含义。可将形态参数分为:(1)从形态学上对柱状通道进行直接分类的参数;(2)指示柱状通道形成诱发因素或形成过程的参数;(3)划分柱状通道幕式流体活动及期次的参数;(4)定义柱状通道中流体活动时间区间的参数;(5)间接反映柱状通道中流体通量相对大小的参数。实际研究过程中,单一形态参数难以准确反映出复杂地质背景下柱状通道的真实地质含义,多参数组合、相互对比验证,能够更好地对柱状流体通道的地质含义做出综合分析。  相似文献   

Lateral stability of central Australian longitudinal dunes     

J. A. Bourne  H. Wopfner 《The Australian geographer》2019,50(2):155-167

Some authors consider that linear dunes migrate laterally on a grand scale, much as rivers move across floodplains. Others have concluded that lateral movement is limited in time and space. During the phase of dune initiation, small ribbons of sand formed in the lee of obstacles merge and coalesce to form recognisable linear dunes. Repeat observations demonstrate that mature sand ridges change position laterally a few metres either way within close limits defined by sand spillages on the slip or avalanche slopes that change orientation in response to changing sand-moving wind directions. This essay considers evidence by which to differentiate these two points of view. Supporting evidence for limited migration take the form of dunes resting on plinths of older alluvial substrates, some capped by gibber and that stand higher than adjacent interdune corridors. Such exposures show that the sand ridges have not migrated laterally during the last several tens of thousands of years. Migration is inhibited by clay cores, calcareous (calcrete) horizons, and the development of vegetated flanks. For these reasons, it is proposed that lateral migration be defined as a change of dune plan position that is greater than the maximum extent of sand deposition that develops in response to changes in the direction of sand-moving winds.  相似文献   

A new look at population change and regional development in Aotearoa New Zealand     

Lars Brabyn  Natalie O. Jackson 《New Zealand geographer》2019,75(3):116-129

In New Zealand, population change is interlinked with regional development. Places growing in population attract regional investment, while regional investment—or lack thereof—can change migration patterns. However, to determine the appropriate response to population change for a community, it is important to understand that population change involves much more than “just” migration. Specifically, it involves interactions between the three components of population change: natural change (births minus deaths), net migration (international and internal) and population ageing (changing cohort size). For example, migration can be negative, but growth can be positive due to underlying natural increase or growth in cohort size. Responses need to differ, depending on these drivers. The goal of this article is to provide new insights into these interactions using data for 275 cities, towns and rural centres (hereafter “urban places”) in New Zealand for the period 1976 to 2013. The results show that natural change has been consistently positive for most urban places up to the present, although projections indicate that in the future this component will become negative across much of the country. At the same time, net migration shows considerable spatial variation, not only in terms of volume, but also direction (negative or positive), which differs markedly by age. A net gain of people of retirement age can offset a net loss of young adults to deliver overall growth, and vice‐versa, but the two have very different implications for longer term growth. An analysis of the drivers of net migration using GIS and machine learning techniques provides an indication of the importance of economic conditions (land‐use and access to markets), lifestyle, access to essential services (hospitals and education) and their interaction with age in regional change. The results show that population age is the best predictor of migration. Younger people are moving to cities for tertiary education and work and older people near or in retirement are moving to smaller lifestyle towns but also want to be close to amenities such as hospitals and international airports. The research also shows that natural lifestyle characteristics (landscape and climate), in combination with age are just as important as economic conditions for understanding migration. Regional development, such as infrastructure that helps business (ports and services) is important for the working age population but not necessarily the retirement age group. When regional development, age/life‐cycle stage and lifestyle come together, such as in Queenstown and Tauranga, net migration gain is high.  相似文献   

Contemporary Refugee‐Border Dynamics and the Legacies of the 1919 Paris Peace Conference     

Karen Culcasi  Emily Skop  Cynthia Gorman 《Geographical review》2019,109(4):469-486

While the geopolitical legacies of the World War I peace negotiations are widely recognized, this article examines the often overlooked connection between the WWI Paris Peace Conference's spatial and geopolitical logics and contemporary refugee‐border dynamics. We argue that the spatial and geopolitical logics that framed the WWI Paris Peace Conference—the creation of new states, the propagation of the Western ideal of bounded sovereign states, the nationalist goals of self‐determination and homogeneous ethnic nations, and the establishment of a system of international governance—continue to impact refugee‐border dynamics and “crises” today. The categories, ideals, and practices of the international refugee regime that emerged over the last one‐hundred years stem in great part from these logics. In this paper, we urge critical contemplation about how these foundations—including the establishment of the post of High Commissioner for Refugees in 1921, the resultant Nansen Passports, the post‐WWI minority treaties, and lastly the 1933 Convention Relating to the International Status of Refugees—connect to contemporary human (im)mobility and border violence. We also introduce the articles in this special issue and highlight key themes and future directions for research in critical migration studies.  相似文献   

Integrated 3D forward stratigraphic and petroleum system modeling of the Levant Basin,Eastern Mediterranean     

Jessica Barabasch  Mathieu Ducros  Nicolas Hawie  Samer Bou Daher  Fadi Henri Nader  Ralf Littke 《Basin Research》2019,31(2):228-252

The Eastern Mediterranean Levant Basin is a proven hydrocarbon province with recent major gas discoveries. To date, no exploration wells targeted its northern part, in particular the Lebanese offshore. The present study assesses the tectono‐stratigraphic evolution and related petroleum systems of the northern Levant Basin via an integrated approach that combines stratigraphic forward modeling and petroleum systems/basin modeling based on the previous published work. Stratigraphic modeling results provide a best‐fit realisation of the basin‐scale sedimentary filling, from the post‐rift Upper Jurassic until the Pliocene. Simulation results suggest dominant eastern marginal and Arabian Plate sources for Cenozoic siliciclastic sediments and a significant contribution from the southern Nilotic source mostly from Lower Oligocene to Lower Miocene. Basin modeling results suggest the presence of a working thermogenic petroleum system with mature source rocks localised in the deeper offshore. The generated hydrocarbons migrated through the deep basin within Jurassic and Cretaceous permeable layers towards the Latakia Ridge in the north and the Levant margin and offshore topographic highs. Furthermore, the basin model indicates a possibly significant influence of salt deposition during Messinian salinity crisis on formation fluids. Ultimately, the proposed integrated workflow provides a powerful tool for the assessment of petroleum systems in underexplored areas.  相似文献