Estimating the sensitivity of mean annual runoff to climate change using selected hydrological models     

Roger N. Jones  Francis H.S. Chiew  Walter C. Boughton  Lu Zhang 《Advances in water resources》2006

Hydrological model sensitivity to climate change can be defined as the response of a particular hydrological model to a known quantum of climate change. This paper estimates the hydrological sensitivity, measured as the percentage change in mean annual runoff, of two lumped parameter rainfall-runoff models, SIMHYD and AWBM and an empirical model, Zhang01, to changes in rainfall and potential evaporation. These changes are estimated for 22 Australian catchments covering a range of climates, from cool temperate to tropical and moist to arid. The results show that the models display different sensitivities to both rainfall and potential evaporation changes. The SIMHYD, AWBM and Zhang01 models show mean sensitivities of 2.4%, 2.5% and 2.1% change in mean annual flow for every 1% change in mean annual rainfall, respectively. All rainfall sensitivities have a lower limit of 1.8% and show upper limits of 4.1%, 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively. The results for potential evaporation change are −0.5%, −0.8% and −1.0% for every 1% increase in mean annual potential evaporation, respectively, with changes rainfall being approximately 3–5 times more sensitive than changes in potential evaporation for each 1% change in climate. Despite these differences, the results show similar correlations for several catchment characteristics. The most significant relationship is between percent change in annual rainfall and potential evaporation to the catchment runoff coefficient. The sensitivity of both A and B factors decreases with an increasing runoff coefficient, as does the uncertainty in this relationship. The results suggest that a first-order relationship can be used to give a rough estimate of changes in runoff using estimates of change in rainfall and potential evaporation representing small to modest changes in climate. Further work will develop these methods further, by investigating other regions and changes on the subannual scale.  相似文献   

Analysis and modeling of spatial correlation structure in small-scale rainfall in Central Oklahoma   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Grzegorz J. Ciach  Witold F. Krajewski 《Advances in water resources》2006

Spatial correlation structure in small-scale rainfall is analyzed based on a dense cluster of raingauges in Central Oklahoma. This cluster, called the EVAC PicoNet, consists of 53 gauges installed in 25 measurement stations covering an area of about 3 km by 3 km. Two raingauges are placed in 24 stations and five in the central station. Three aspects of the estimated spatial correlation functions are discussed: dependence on time-scale ranging from 1 min to 24 h, inter-storm variability, and dependence on rainfall intensity. The results show a regular dependence of the correlogram parameters on the averaging time-scale, large differences of the correlograms in the individual storms, and the dominance of storms with high spatial variability on the average large sample characteristics. The authors also demonstrate and discuss the ambiguities in correlation estimates conditioned on rainfall intensities. The findings of this study have implications for raingauge network design, rainfall modeling, and conclusive evaluation of radar and satellite estimates of rainfall.  相似文献   

Namaqualand's climate: Recent historical changes and future scenarios   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

N.C. MacKellar  B.C. Hewitson  M.A. Tadross 《Journal of Arid Environments》2007,70(4):604

A brief outline of some issues concerning global climate change research is presented before discussing local-scale changes in Namaqaland's rainfall. Using a gridded data set derived through interpolation of station records, trends in observed rainfall for the period 1950–1999 are discussed. To assess what changes may occur during the 21st century, the downscaled results of six different General Circulation Model projections are presented. The historical trends show some clear spatial patterns, which depict regions of wetting in the central coastal belt and the north-eastern part of the domain, and extensive drying along the escarpment. Reasonably good agreement is shown by the different downscaled projections. These suggest increased late summer convective precipitation in the north-east, but extensive drying along the coast in early and mid winter consistent with the poleward retreat of rain-bearing mid-latitude cyclones.  相似文献   

Variations of Precipitation Structure and Microwave Tbs During the Evolution of a Hailstorm from TRMM Observations     

HE Wenying  CHEN Hongbin 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2007,21(2):153-167

In this paper, a hailstorm occurring on 9 May 1999 in Huanghuai region was studied by using the combined data from the precipitation radar (PR), microwave image (TMI), and visible infrared scanner (VIRS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. According to the 3-orbit observations of 5-h duration from the TRMM satellite, the variation characteristics of the precipitation structures as well as cloud top temperature and microwave signals of the precipitating cloud were comprehensively analyzed during the evolution of hailstorm. The results show that the precipitation is obviously converted from early hail cloud with strong convection into the later storm cloud with weak convection. For hail cloud, there exists some strong convective cells, and the heavy solid precipitation is shown at the middle-top levels so that the contribution of rainfall amount above the freezing-layer to the column precipitation amount is rather larger than that within the melting-layer. However, for storm cloud, the convective cells are surrounded by the large area of stratiform precipitation, and the precipitation thickness gradually decreases, and the rainfall above the freezing-layer obviously reduces and the contribution of rainfall amount within the melting-layer rapidly increases. Therefore, the larger ratio of rainfall amount above the freezing layer to column precipitation amount is, the more convective the cloud is; reversely, the larger proportion of rainfall below the melting layer is, the more stable the stratiform cloud is. The different changing trends of microwave signals at different precipitation stages show that it is better to consider the structures and stages of precipitating cloud to choose the optimal microwave channels to retrieve surface rainfall.  相似文献   

Spinel-facies mantle xenoliths from Cerro Redondo, Argentine Patagonia: Petrographic, geochemical, and isotopic evidence of interaction between xenoliths and host basalt   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. Schilling  R.V. Conceio  G. Mallmann  E. Koester  K. Kawashita  F. Herv  D. Morata  A. Motoki 《Lithos》2005,82(3-4):485-502

Cerro Redondo is an ancient cinder cone now almost completely eroded, sited over a sill that corresponds to a sub-volcanic magma chamber, in Santa Cruz province, Patagonia, Argentina. It is composed of Pliocene-Pleistocene alkaline basalt containing spinel-facies lherzolite and harzburgite mantle xenoliths. Core compositions of pyroxenes indicate temperatures of 823 °C to 1043 °C and pressures of 12.4 kb to 21.4 kb. Based on P–T estimates, petrographic, geochemical, and isotopic characteristics, we propose that Cerro Redondo xenoliths come from a thick homogeneous mantle column (36 km to 63 km depth), and present different degrees of basalt infiltration. A simple mixing model based on Sr isotopes was used to quantify the host basalt infiltration, and contamination values of 0.0%, 0.2%, 3%, and 12% were obtained for samples X-F, X-D, X-C, and X-B, respectively. For unknown reasons, samples X-G and X-E suffered selective isotopic and trace element modification, respectively, associated with 1% of basalt infiltration. Sample X-F best represents the sub-continental lithospheric mantle column, conserving primary equilibrium textures with sharp grain boundaries, and having TiO₂, CaO, Na₂O, K₂O, and P₂O₅ contents lower than average spinel lherzolite, flat chondrite-normalized REE pattern, and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios of 0.70519 and 0.51297, respectively. This sample records a decoupling of the Sr–Nd system where Sr ratios increase at constant Nd ratios, possibly caused by chromatographic processes. Its ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios are 17.987, 15.556, and 37.959, respectively. As the interaction with the host basalt increases, xenoliths show a gradual increase of disequilibrium textures such as reaction rims and exsolution lamellae in orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene, and increase of TiO₂, CaO, Al₂O₃, Na₂O, K₂O, P₂O₅, LREE, and incompatible element concentrations. The Sr–Nd system shows an unusual positive trend from the unmodified sample X-F toward the host basalt isotope composition with ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios of 0.70447 and 0.51279, respectively, while ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios tend to increase toward those of the host basalt (18.424, 15.648, and 38.728, respectively) as the xenolith–basalt interaction increases. The basalt–xenolith reaction probably started during the transport of the xenoliths to the surface, and continued during the residence of xenoliths in the sub-volcanic magma chamber of Cerro Redondo.  相似文献   

Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA   总被引：13，自引：6，他引：13  

Rex L. Baum  Jeffery A. Coe  Jonathan W. Godt  Edwin L. Harp  Mark E. Reid  William Z. Savage  William H. Schulz  Dianne L. Brien  Alan F. Chleborad  Jonathan P. McKenna  John A. Michael 《Landslides》2005,2(4):266-279

Landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in Seattle and the Puget Sound area of Washington State, USA. Shallow earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common type of landslide in the area; many transform into debris flows and cause significant property damage or disrupt transportation. Large rotational and translational slides, though less common, also cause serious property damage. The hundreds of landslides that occurred during the winters of 1995–96 and 1996–97 stimulated renewed interest by Puget Sound communities in identifying landslide-prone areas and taking actions to reduce future landslide losses. Informal partnerships between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the City of Seattle, and private consultants are focusing on the problem of identifying and mapping areas of landslide hazard as well as characterizing temporal aspects of the hazard. We have developed GIS-based methods to map the probability of landslide occurrence as well as empirical rainfall thresholds and physically based methods to forecast times of landslide occurrence. Our methods for mapping landslide hazard zones began with field studies and physically based models to assess relative slope stability, including the effects of material properties, seasonal groundwater levels, and rainfall infiltration. We have analyzed the correlation between historic landslide occurrence and relative slope stability to map the degree of landslide hazard. The City of Seattle is using results of the USGS studies in storm preparedness planning for emergency access and response, planning for development or redevelopment of hillsides, and municipal facility planning and prioritization. Methods we have developed could be applied elsewhere to suit local needs and available data.  相似文献   

Kaolinitic meniscus bridges as an indicator of early diagenesis in Nubian sandstones, Sinai, Egypt – discussion     

J. MARCELO KETZER  L. FERNANDO DE ROS  NORBERTO DANI 《Sedimentology》2005,52(1):213-217

  相似文献   

0414号台风“云娜”多普勒雷达探测   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

朱龙彪郑铮  何彩芬 《应用气象学报》2005,16(4):500-508

通过宁波新一代天气雷达对0414号台风“云娜”的多普勒雷达探测资料及其所提供的产品进行个例分析, 得出了一些初步的结果:该雷达对“云娜”的中心位置探测与舟山、温州雷达以及中央气象台综合定位基本一致; 通过大陈站、石浦站出现的极大风速与温州、宁波两部多普勒雷达测得的最大径向速度比较, 发现其独特的径向速度产品能较好地显示台风的极大风速情况; 探测到的反射率因子强度与雨强有较好的对应关系, 并就此讨论了Z-I关系。文章还对总降水量产品和实况雨量进行比较, 发现反演值只有实况过程雨量的50%左右。  相似文献   

表土结皮发育过程及其侵蚀响应研究进展   总被引：12，自引：2，他引：12  

程琴娟  蔡强国  李家永 《地理科学进展》2005,24(4):114-122

表土结皮是降雨后某些土壤表面普遍存在的现象，它是在降雨与土壤的相互作用下发育的；本文在综览大量文献的基础上，得出表土结皮研究还存在着很多有待深入的领域。一方面，由于影响降雨、土壤的因子复杂多变，因此表土结皮本身的形成过程很复杂，研究者的结论也有所不同。另一方面，表土结皮作为一种特殊的下垫面，影响坡面侵蚀的各子过程，但是影响机理还不清楚。表土结皮对坡面侵蚀过程的影响研究已经取得了一些定性方面的进展，但为了完善坡面侵蚀物理模型和达到准确的预报预测，定量研究还有待进一步深入和细化。  相似文献   

人工快渗污水处理系统水力负荷周期的设计   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

何江涛 《地学前缘》2005,12(Z1):49-54

人工快渗(CRI系统)源自快速渗滤污水土地处理系统(RI系统),并沿用了其中的干湿交替工作方式,因此, 水力负荷周期同样也成为CRI系统的重要设计参数,也是系统设计的一大难点。目前CRI系统水力负荷周期的设计,不仅需要根据已有的经验,而且还要通过一段调试运行才能确定,设计过程中缺乏理论依据和设计原则。为此,笔者研究了CRI与RI系统两者之间的差异,充分考虑水力负荷周期调整对CRI系统运行的各方面影响,分别从防止NH4 N穿透和保证系统NH4 N充分硝化两个角度,提出了水力负荷周期中淹水时间和落干时间确定新方法,并通过松岗试验实例进行了初步验证,为今后CRI系统水力负荷周期的设计提供了有效的理论依据和设计原则。  相似文献