World oil: Hotelling depletion or accelerating use?     

Duane Chapman 《Natural Resources Research》1993,2(4):331-339

In theoretical Hotelling-type models of resource depletion, oil use declines monotonically over time to depletion. However, world oil use has been increasing for several years. Can theory and reality be reconciled? The answer is affirmative, if theory is modified to accommodate outward-shifting demand functions that are rising in response to growth in world population and income. Under this assumption, a Hotelling depletion model projects a 50-year period of increasing world oil use before the decline to exhaustion. This holds for both competitive and monopolistic regimes. Hotelling theory has been criticized by Adelman and others, in part because of the unreality of the theoretical projections. By combining the modified Hotelling theory with U.S. Geological Survey resource estimates, the numerical projections seem congruent with Adelman's near-term expectations. Finally, a backstop technology, such as renewable biomass ethanol, introduces a new dimension. Assuming a $2-per-gallon cost for the ethanol, the modified Hotelling theory projects accelerating use of conventional oil until depletion or substitution. Consequently, it does not seem unreasonable to believe that a finite, limited resource of conventional oil is consistent with growing use for several decades. A projected exhaustion in 100 years is consisten with increasing use for 50 years.  相似文献   

地下水水动力弥散问题中弥散度的单孔确定方法研究     

王运国  毕春玲 《吉林地质》1991,10(2):50-60

本文提出了利用单孔进行弥散实验,确定地下水含水层弥散度的新方法,给出了数学模型、求解过程及方法。提出了用计算机自动处理求得最佳参数的直线回归法与非线性迭代法相结合的方法。不但进行了理论上的详细推导,而且通过实例进行了验证,结果很好。本文提出的方法原理通俗易懂,计算过程简单,易于实行,成本低,具有重要实际意义。  相似文献   

大气中微量气体的红外吸收          下载免费PDF全文

王松皋  张广顺 《应用气象学报》1995,6(1):70-75

文章介绍了测定大气中微量气体CO2与CH4透过率的试验。所用的主要设备是FTIR分光计及可变光程吸收池。文中叙述了主要实验结果与数据处理方法，同时用FASCODE-2程序计算了对应实验条件下CO2与CH4的透过率，并与实验结果作了比较。  相似文献   

中酸性火成岩岩石化学计算若干问题的讨论及解决方案   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

叶瑛 《岩石学报》1987,3(3)

对于中酸性火成岩,CIPW标准矿物与岩石实际矿物成分之间的差别是明显的。为了缩小这一差別,作者讨论了和岩石化学计算有关的若干问题,在此基研上提出了适用于中酸性火成岩的岩石化学计算方案。计算实例表明,本文方案能够弥补CIPW标准矿物分子法的某些不足。  相似文献   

Estimation of the Oil Reserves Requirement to Meet a Given Production Level—Mathematical Modeling     

Feygin  M. V.  Ryzhik  V. M. 《Natural Resources Research》2001,10(1):51-58

  相似文献   

盐湖卤水密度的计算及应用          下载免费PDF全文

李亚红  宋彭生  高世扬  夏树屏 《盐湖研究》2000,8(4):44-49

分析了各种卤水密度的计算方法及应用范围。实测和收集了大量数据来验证、对比各种计算方法的准确性 ,结论认为各种卤水密度计算方法计算值均接近实测值 ,具有不同程度的应用和参考价值。同时提出了应用卤水密度组合公式来进行生产管理、工艺设计计算的可行性、方便性、可操作性  相似文献   

基于GPU的S63标准电子海图数据解密算法     

钟云海  郑海  周红进 《测绘软科学研究》2014,(2):54-58

S63标准采用Blowfish算法对原始海图数据加密后发行,数据的解密成为电子海图系统数据转换和更新中一个耗时的过程。为提高数据处理的速度,针对Blowfish分组密码算法的特点,提出一种利用图形处理器（GPU）的海图并行解密算法,并采用数据传输和处理的同步技术进行了优化。测试表明,采用GPU的并行解密算法是纯CPU串行处理的9.8倍。该算法不仅可大大加快海图数据转换和更新过程,对地理信息系统海量数据处理也有一定的借鉴价值。  相似文献   

黄土高原半干旱区非均一下垫面粗糙度分析   总被引：10，自引：6，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

张文煜  张宇  陆晓静  郭振海  王晓妍 《高原气象》2009,28(4):763-768

利用2007年4月17日-2008年4月16日兰州大学半干旱气候与环境观测站边界层气象塔的风速、 风向、 温度、 气压、 湿度等观测资料, 采用经典的廓线法和风速、 风向标准差法, 分别计算了中性大气层结下观测站下垫面粗糙度长度, 并得到了具有黄土高原地理特征的地表粗糙度及其时空变化特征。计算结果表明, 季节变化对粗糙度的影响幅度可达0.159 m, 空间非均一性对粗糙度的影响幅度可达0.155 m。测站附近粗糙度春季为0.017 m, 夏季为0.062 m, 秋季为0.065 m, 冬季为0.018 m。测站西北方向上游粗糙度春季为0.17 m, 夏季为0.22 m, 秋季为0.34 m, 冬季为0.05 m。测站东南方向上游粗糙度春季为0.11 m, 夏季为0.17 m, 秋季为0.19 m, 冬季为0.05 m。该站下垫面粗糙度计算宜选用风速为6±1.5 m·s-1, 风向变化30°范围内的数据。  相似文献   

基于单站短弧段光学观测的低轨卫星轨道预报算法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

潘晓刚  周海银  王炯琦  娇媛媛 《天文学报》2009,50(4)

基于单站短弧段的目标跟踪预报技术是保证高精度光电经纬仪在非常规环境下正常跟踪捕获目标的重要途径.构建了基于非线性滤波器的跟踪预报算法,能够在正常情况下为闭环跟踪提供引导数据,同时构建了基于非线性变换的目标预报算法,可以在无有效观测数据情况下为经纬仪提供轨迹引导,保证目标不丢失.证明了非线性滤波在单站短弧段跟踪预报算法中比常规扩展卡尔曼滤波(Extended Kalman Filter,EKF)更有效.计算表明,本文设计的非线性滤波器可以作为光学跟踪设备的引导算法,引导精度同经纬仪的随机测量精度等量级,在设备系统误差达到50"时,预报60 s的精度可达到20",仍然满足跟踪设备的视场要求.  相似文献   

High-pressure decomposition of MCr2O4 spinels (M=Mg, Mn, Zn) by ab initio methods     

M. Catti  F. Freyria Fava  C. Zicovich  R. Dovesi 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1999,26(5):389-395

The high-pressure equation of state of the normal spinels MgCr₂O₄ (picrochromite), MnCr₂O₄ and ZnCr₂O₄, and their reaction of decomposition into Cr₂O₃ (eskolaite) and MO (rocksalt-type) component oxides, were investigated by periodic unrestricted Hartree-Fock calculations. All-electron basis sets, and an a posteriori correction for the electron correlation energy, based on Density-Functional-Theory, were employed. Interpolation of results by the P-V Murnaghan equation of state yielded the equilibrium volume and energy, and the bulk modulus and its pressure derivative, for each of the seven phases (three spinels, three rocksalt oxides and eskolaite) considered. The simulated behaviour of interatomic distances vs pressure shows similar compressibilities of M-O bonds in both octahedral and tetrahedral coordinations. Binding energies and formation enthalpies of spinels from oxides are also computed and compared to available experimental data. The predicted decomposition pressures of Mg, Mn and Zn chromium spinels are 19, 23 and 34 GPa, respectively. The greater stability of ZnCr₂O₄ is related to Zn²⁺ being better suited to tetrahedral coordination than the other M²⁺ cations. Such results are strongly supported by the excellent agreement previously obtained between simulated (11 GPa) and experimental (13 GPa) pressures of the decomposition of MgAl₂O₄ spinel into corundum and periclase. Received: 9 February 1998 / Accepted: 12 October 1998  相似文献