A Conceptual Framework for Enhancing the Utility of Rainfall Hazard Forecasts for Agriculture in Marginal Environments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Muhammad?T.?UsmanEmail author  Emma?Archer  Peter?Johnston  Mark?Tadross 《Natural Hazards》2005,34(1):111-129

Semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas (especially in the tropics) are characterized by high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. Agriculture, which employs the bulk of the rapidly increasing populations, is largely rain-fed, low-input based and highly resource dependent. Recent spates of drought have, therefore, exacerbated the now-too-familiar specter of famine and starvation in these areas with glaring examples being the recurring episodes in sub-Saharan Africa since the great Sahel drought of 1969–1973. A great need for accurate and timely hazard forecast products in aid of agriculture thus exists.Several schemes are currently employed by various agencies around the globe in this direction. There does remain, however, a gap between product provision and user expectations. This paper examines this gap suggesting a five-point framework within which it can be addressed as an action agenda for the climate science community. The paper posits that changes are possible to existing methodologies (related to three of these points), which, within the context of current science, can greatly enhance the utility of forecast products for agriculture in marginal areas. The remaining two points have, however, been identified as requiring additional applied research and necessary pointers for addressing these issues are provided. First is the need for appropriate impact-related indicators for intra-seasonal and interannual rainfall variability that are easy to compute, amenable to forecasting and follow closely the experiences of farmers in marginal areas. The second is a consideration of appropriate forecast information formatting and communication medium that guarantee effective feedback between forecast producers and users. Specific examples of the status quo and of work currently underway are cited from southern Africa – a region currently attracting international attention as a result of recent droughts and the threat of famine.  相似文献   

Development of a system of indicators for sustainable port management   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Peris-Mora E  Diez Orejas JM  Subirats A  Ibáñez S  Alvarez P 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(12):1649-1660

The 1998 project ECOPORT, “Towards A Sustainable Transport Network”, developed by the Valencia Port Authority (VPA), established the bases for implementing an Environmental Management System (EMS) in industrial harbours. The use of data and information shall always be required to develop an efficient EMS. The objective of the present research (INDAPORT) study is to propose a system of sustainable environmental management indicators to be used by any port authorities. All activities performed within a port area are analysed for any potential environmental impacts and risks.

An environmental analysis of port activities has been carried out with the objective of designing the indicators system. Twenty-one corresponding activities have been identified for large industrial ports. Subsequently, the same methodology developed to date will be later applied to other Spanish and European ports. The study has been developed by using an original system and a methodology, which simultaneously use stage diagrams and systemic models (material and energy flow charts). Multi-criteria analysis techniques were used to evaluate potential impacts (identification of factors and evaluation of impacts).  相似文献   

区域水资源压力指数与水资源安全评价指标体系   总被引：81，自引：2，他引：79  

贾绍凤  张军岩  张士锋 《地理科学进展》2002,21(6):538-545

本文讨论和分析水资源安全的含义、水资源压力指数和水资源安全评价指标,建立水资源安全评价指标体系。水资源安全指"以可承受的价格获取足够安全的水"。国际上常用人均水资源量和水资源开发利用程度两个指标反映人类对水及水相关生态的压力。但由于水资源安全是很综合的概念,包含很丰富的内涵,单用一两个水资源压力指标难以反映其内容,因此有必要建立水资源安全评价指标体系。  相似文献   

土地利用可持续性的度量-一种显示过程的综合方法   总被引：44，自引：3，他引：41  

蔡运龙  李军 《地理学报》2003,58(2):305-313

土地利用可持续性的度量指标应该具有时间序列性、空间敏感性、客观性和综合性,能显示趋势性和可预测性,有参照值或阈值,能表达逆转性和可控性,能正确地进行数据转化,能方便地采集和使用数据。迄今所见的指标体系,在方法上皆可归纳为枚举法和综合法。枚举法的困难是：指标体系很难穷尽所有的影响因素,又不能准确判断每一因素的影响程度,也难以有完备的数据序列。综合法避免了枚举法的困难,但目前还没有完整的时间序列,因而只能评价现状而不是过程。本文提出一种针对变化过程进行评价的指标体系,采用系统综合指标,即生产力、稳定性、恢复力、公平性、自立性、协调性,来定量地评价土地利用的可持续性,并应用于山东省莱西市案例研究。  相似文献   

A soft hydrological monitoring approach for comparing runoff on a network of small poorly gauged catchments     

Armand Crabit  François Colin  Roger Moussa 《水文研究》2011,25(18):2785-2800

Catchments in many parts of the world are either ungauged or poorly gauged, and the dominant processes governing their streamflow response are still poorly understood. The analysis of runoff coefficients provides essential insight into catchment response, particularly if both range of catchments and a range of events are compared. This paper investigates how well the hydrological runoff of 11 small, poorly gauged catchments with ephemeral streams (0·1‐0·6 km²) can be compared using estimated runoff with the associated uncertainty. Data of rainfall and water depth at a catchment's outlet were recorded using automatic logging equipment during 2008‐2009. The hydrological regime is intermittent and the annual precipitation ranged between 569 and 727 mm. Discharge was estimated using Manning's equation and channel cross‐section measurements. Innovative work has been performed under controlled experimental conditions to estimate Manning's coefficient values for the different cover types observed in studied streams: non‐aquatic vegetations (giant reed, bramble and thistle), grass and coarse granular deposits. The results show that estimates derived using roughness coefficients differ from those previously established for larger streams with aquatic vegetation. Catchment runoff was compared at both the event and the annual scale. The results indicate significant variability between the catchment's responses. This variability allows for classification in spite of all the uncertainty associated with runoff estimation. This study highlights the potential of using a network of poorly gauged catch ments. From almost no catchment understanding the proposed methodology allows to compare poorly gauged catchments and highlights similarity/dissimilarity between catchment responses. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Using land cover changes and demographic data to improve hydrological modeling in the Sahel          下载免费PDF全文

Jean Emmanuel Paturel  Gil Mahé  Pierre Diello  Bruno Barbier  Alain Dezetter  Claudine Dieulin  Harouna Karambiri  Hamma Yacouba  Amadou Maiga 《水文研究》2017,31(4):811-824

At the beginning of the drought in the Sahel in the 1970s and 1980s, rainfall decreased markedly, but runoff coefficients and in some cases, absolute runoff increased. This situation was due to the conversion of the land cover from natural vegetation with a low annual runoff coefficient, to cropland and bare soils, whose runoff coefficients are higher. Unless they are adapted, hydrological conceptual models, such as GR2M, are unable to reproduce this increase in runoff. Despite the varying environmental and climatic conditions of the West African Sahel, we show that it is possible to increase the performance of the GR2M model simulations by elaborating a time‐varying soil water holding capacity and to incorporate this value in the annual maximum amount of water to be stored in reservoir A of the model. We looked for interactions between climate, rural society, and the environment. These interactions drive land‐cover changes in the Sahel, which in turn drive the distribution of rainfall between infiltration, evaporation, and runoff and hence the water resources, which are vital in this region. We elaborated several time series of key indicators linked to these interactions. We then integrated these changes in the runoff conditions of the GR2M model through the maximum value of the reservoir capacity. We calculated annual values of water holding capacity using the annual values of four classes of land cover, natural vegetation, cultivated area, bare soil, and surface water. We then used the hydrological model with and without this time‐varying soil value of A and compared the performances of the model under the two scenarios. Whatever the calibration period used, the Nash–Sutcliffe index was always greater in the case of the time‐varying A time series.  相似文献   

矿山环境保护与治理控制指标研究——以徐州市为例     

王玉军  欧名豪  黄敬军  等 《江苏地质》2015,39(2):329-333

矿山开采对环境的影响和破坏日趋严重,矿山环境保护和治理迫在眉睫。在分析徐州矿山环境保护与治理现状的基础上,有针对性地合理选取规划的控制指标,采取定量分析或定性分析方法,提出采煤塌陷地土地复垦率、露采矿山环境治理率、地质灾害隐患治理率、矿井水综合利用率、煤矸石综合利用率和"绿色矿山"创建率6项主要控制指标,使徐州矿山环境保护与治理规划更具可操作性。  相似文献   

基于卡方变换的中分辨率遥感影像土地覆盖变化对象识别方法     

杨晓彤  刘慧平  高啸峰 《地理与地理信息科学》2014,30(5)

该文旨在探讨中分辨率遥感影像的土地覆盖变化对象识别方法。首先基于植被-不透水层-土壤(VIS)模型,参考OIF指数的信息量进行对象特征指标选取,基于过分割和欠分割指数确定最优分割尺度,对两期SPOT影像进行多时相分割,然后利用卡方变换方法自动选择阈值,进行植被、不透水层、土壤和水体4种土地覆盖类型之间的变化对象识别。精度评价表明,随着对象特征指标包含信息量的不断增加,检测结果的总精度不断提高,其中对影像所有特征指标进行主成分分析并选择前3个主成分作为特征指标组合对土地覆盖变化对象进行识别的总精度最高,为93.9%,Kappa系数为0.824,证明了该方法的有效性。  相似文献   

基于PSR模型的珊瑚礁生态系统健康评价指标体系的构建与应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

纪雅宁  牛文涛  黄丁勇  黄嵩林  王初升 《台湾海峡》2014,(3):343-347

运用压力-状态-响应（pressure-state-response,PSR）模型,采用生态系统健康理论评价珊瑚礁生态状况.借鉴国内外现有生态系统评价方法,结合珊瑚礁生态系统的特点,建立适合我国国情的珊瑚礁生态系统评价方法和模式,并对我国典型海域珊瑚礁生态健康状况进行评价,以期为我国典型珊瑚礁生态系统健康状况提供基础资料.评价结果显示东山、涠洲岛、海南东部珊瑚礁生态健康状况为健康,徐闻和西沙海域珊瑚礁生态健康状况为亚健康,评价结果与我国相关生态监控区调查结果基本一致.  相似文献   

Comment to the article by R. Hannesson “Norway's experience with ITQs”     

《Marine Policy》2014

  相似文献