温度客观预报自动化业务系统   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

朱正心  周述学 《气象》1997,23(3):34-37

介绍了一以Ｔ６３数值预报产品为因子，用卡尔曼滤波方法作４８小时最高，最低温度客观预报方法及其自动化业务系统，能补充目前地市台温度预报主要依靠主观预报的不足，对温度有一定的预报能力。  相似文献   

人类活动中温室气体的排放对气温影响综述   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

骆高远  肖建成 《热带地理》1997,17(4):378-384

本文广泛参阅了国内外科学家的研究成果，综合论述分析了几种主要温室气体的源、汇及其浓度变化特征，研究分析了其增暖潜力，温室效应的强度和对人类社会各方面的影响，提出人类为保护自身的生存环境，必须严格控制温室气体的排放量。  相似文献   

席状岩浆房中的岩浆冷却及动力稳定性   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

张正阶  宋谢炎 《岩石学报》1996,12(1):1-16

关于岩浆房中岩浆的结晶分异方式一直存在着争议，其基本矛盾在于对岩浆冷却历史及热不稳定性可能引起的对流形式的理解各不相同。本文在充分考虑席状岩浆房的基本物理特征的基础上，建立了稳定岩浆体系的动态冷却模型，并以攀枝花层状岩体为例，计算了相应的温度场、密度场及粘度场。同时，提出了一种基于能量守恒的、对热不稳定性进行分析的新方法。计算了热不稳定性可能引起的对流强度、对流区域及对流时间，并深入讨论了在一定的热不稳定状态下，不同的岩浆屈服强度对对流特征参量的影响。结果表明，在该岩体的整个固化过程中，如果曾发生过自发对流，其对流也是极微弱而短暂的，不会影响中下部岩浆房中岩浆的固化和结晶。这一结论与对该岩体的实际观察相符。  相似文献   

Optimizing a layered and laterally constrained 2D inversion of resistivity data using Broyden's update and 1D derivatives     

Anders V. Christiansen  Esben Auken   《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2004,56(4):247

Dense profile-oriented resistivity data allows for 2D and 3D inversions. However, huge amounts of data make it practically impossible to do full 2D or 3D inversions on a routine basis. Therefore, a number of approximations have been suggested over the years to speed up computations. We suggest using a combination of Broyden's update on the Jacobian matrix with derivatives calculated using a 1D formulation on a parameterized 2D model of locally 1D layered models. The approximations bring down the effective number of 2D forward responses to a minimum, which again gives us the ability to invert very large sections. Broyden's update is not as useful with a parameterized problem as is the case with a smooth minimum structure problem that has been the usual application. 1D derivatives, however, seem to be very effective when initiating a full 2D solution with Broyden's update. We compare the different methods using two different kinds of data on two synthetic models and on two field examples. The most effective and reliable optimization combines 1D derivatives with a full 2D solution and Broyden's update. When using Broyden's update the Jacobian matrix needs to be reset every once in a while. We do this whenever the difference in data residual from the previous iteration is less than 5%. This combined inversion method reduces the computation time approximately a factor of 3 without losing model resolution.  相似文献   

沈阳近百年的温度变化特征及其环流形势分析   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

周小珊  李辑  杨森  周广胜 《气象科学》2004,24(4):424-431

沈阳地处全球温度变化的敏感带，在近百年的温度观测记录中，沈阳的温度变化呈逐渐上升之势，近百年增高约1．7℃，这种上升趋势在冬季远比夏季明显。沈阳的年平均温度变化有一个12a的周期，各周期温度基本呈阶梯状上升，20世纪末的周期冬季平均温度比世纪初的周期升温2．8℃左右。从近50a的极端温度的变化趋势来看，极端最低温度明显升高，而极端最高温度并没有上升，变化趋势甚至略下降，以致冬、夏两季温差缩小。从沈阳的最低平均温度和最高平均温度变化来看，两者均随时间逐渐升高，说明沈阳市的增温不仅是最低温度升高造成的，最高温度的增温作用亦十分重要。从冬季环流形势分析来看，东亚大槽及其后弱脊和地面蒙古高压在上世纪80年代、90年代明显减弱，使得冷空气向南侵袭的径向气流减弱，是导致位于冷空气通道中的沈阳冬季增温明显的原因之一。  相似文献   

近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征   总被引：403，自引：14，他引：403  

任国玉  郭军  徐铭志  初子莹  张莉  邹旭凯  李庆祥  刘小宁 《气象学报》2005,63(6):942-956

采用国家基准气候站和基本气象站的地面资料,系统地分析了中国大陆地区1951年以来近地表主要气候要素演化的时间和空间特征。结果表明,中国近50 a来年平均地表气温变暖幅度约为1.1℃,增温速率接近0.22℃/(10 a),比全球或半球同期平均增温速率明显偏高。地表气温增暖主要发生在最近的20余年,其季节和空间特征与前人分析结论基本一致。降水量变化趋势对所取时间段和区域范围敏感。1951年以来全国平均降水量变化趋势不明显,但1956年以来略有增加。降水变化的空间特征明显而相对稳定,东北北部、包括长江中下游的东南部地区和西部广大地区降水增加,而华北地区以及东北东南部和西北东部地区降水明显减少。分析还发现,近50a来全国平均的日照时数、平均风速、水面蒸发等气候要素均呈显著下降趋势,但积雪地带的最大积雪深度却有所增加。中国日照时间和水面蒸发量变化的空间特征很相似,减少最明显的地区均发生在华北和华东,新疆次之。影响中国年代以上尺度气候变化的因子错综复杂,人类活动引起的大气中温室气体浓度增高可能在一定程度上影响了中国近50 a来的气候,但考虑到尚存的不确定性,目前仍不能给出明确结论。中国东部大部分地区日照时间和水面蒸发量减少可能均起源于人为排放的气溶胶影响,平均风速减弱也有利于水面蒸发量下降,而在西部地区云量和降水量的变化可能更重要。  相似文献   

Comment on 'On sensitivity kernels for 'wave-equation' transmission tomography' by de Hoop and van der Hilst     

F. A. Dahlen  Guust Nolet 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,163(3):949-951

  相似文献   

Application of Distributed Temperature Sensing for coupled mapping of sedimentation processes and spatio‐temporal variability of groundwater discharge in soft‐bedded streams          下载免费PDF全文

Eva Sebok  Carlos Duque  Peter Engesgaard  Eva Boegh 《水文研究》2015,29(15):3408-3422

The delineation of groundwater discharge areas based on Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) data of the streambed can be difficult in soft‐bedded streams where sedimentation and scouring processes constantly change the position of the fibre optic cable relative to the streambed. Deposition‐induced temperature anomalies resemble the signal of groundwater discharge while scouring will cause the cable to float in the water column and measure stream water temperatures. DTS applied in a looped layout with nine fibre optic cable rows in a 70 × 5 m section of a soft‐bedded stream made it possible to detect variability in streambed temperatures between October 2011 and January 2012. Detailed monthly streambed elevation surveys were carried out to monitor the position of the fibre optic cable relative to the streambed and to quantify the effect of sedimentation processes on streambed temperatures. Based on the simultaneous interpretation of streambed temperature and elevation data, a method is proposed to delineate potential high‐groundwater discharge areas and identify deposition‐induced temperature anomalies in soft‐bedded streams. Potential high‐discharge sites were detected using as metrics the daily minimum, maximum and mean streambed temperatures as well as the daily amplitude and standard deviation of temperatures. The identified potential high‐discharge areas were mostly located near the channel banks, also showing temporal variability because of the scouring and redistribution of streambed sediments, leading to the relocation of pool‐riffle sequences. This study also shows that sediment deposits of 0.1 m thickness already resulted in an increase in daily minimum streambed temperatures and decrease in daily amplitude and standard deviation. Scouring sites showed lower daily minimum streambed temperatures and higher daily amplitude and standard deviation compared with areas without sedimentation and scouring. As a limitation of the approach, groundwater discharge occurring at depositional and scouring areas cannot be identified by the metrics applied. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

中国东部夏季暴雨的年代际跃变及其大尺度环流背景   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

陈栋  陈际龙  黄荣辉  刘永 《大气科学》2016,40(3):581-590

本文利用1960~2011年中国东部地面测站的逐日降水资料和JRA-55再分析资料探讨了夏季暴雨分布的年代际跃变及其相关联的大尺度环流异常特征。基于暴雨频数和占比(夏季暴雨占比是指5~8月暴雨降水量对总降水量的贡献百分比)的分析结果表明:中国东部夏季暴雨分布在20世纪70年代末和90年代初经历两次反相的经向"三极子"跃变。中国东部夏季暴雨的年代际演变过程可分为三个时段:1960~1979年为华南和华北暴雨偏多、江淮流域暴雨偏少的经向"三极子"分布;1980~1991年为南方和华北暴雨偏少、江淮流域暴雨偏多的经向三极子"分布;1992~2011年为南方暴雨显著偏多、华北暴雨持续偏少,逐渐形成经向"偶极子"分布,并导致近十多年我国夏季"南涝北旱"的整体格局。1970年代末(1990年代初)跃变相关联的大尺度环流异常配置:东亚夏季风的减弱(增强),西太平洋副高的增强西伸但南撤(北抬),南亚高压的减弱南缩(增强东扩),以及蒙古高原中低层的气旋式(反气旋式)环流异常。与此同时,低层局地环流也发生调整:华北和黄淮地区以及华南和江南地区均为反气旋式(气旋式)环流异常,而江淮流域和四川盆地受控于风场切变式辐合(辐散)异常;涡度场发生相应变化,南北方大部分地区的负(正)涡度异常不(有)利于低涡的发展,而江淮流域和四川盆地的正(负)涡度异常有(不)利于低涡的发展,进而引发江南和华南暴雨减少(增加)、江淮流域和四川盆地暴雨增加(减少)、黄淮和华北暴雨减少(增加)的经向"三极子"跃变。  相似文献   

Study of high temperature targets identification and temperature retrieval experimental model in SWIR remote sensing based Landsat8     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2016

For surface features in short-wave infrared (SWIR, 1.3–3.0 μm) in remote sensing imagery, pixel values depict the total energy including reflection and emission. For surface features at normal temperature in SWIR band, emission energy can be ignored. While for surface features at high temperature in SWIR band, emission energy is equal to or even higher than the reflection energy. So remote sensing imagery of SWIR band can be used to separate emission and reflection energy as well as to realize temperature retrieval of high temperature targets. In this study, the seventh band (SWIR band) of Landsat8 OLI remote sensing imagery is used to perform the theoretical model research for temperature retrieval of high temperature targets. In the meantime, it is also used with the corresponding observation experiment of synchronization satellite to check the theoretical model. The result shows that the radiant flux density for mixed pixels with high temperature targets is higher than adjacent pixels without high temperature targets. Thus, the high temperature pixels can be identified in SWIR band. The retrieval results of temperature and fractional area for high temperature targets are consistent with reality. In the study, the result illustrates that it is effective to identify high temperature targets in remote sensing imagery of SWIR band and the model is appropriate for temperature retrieval use.  相似文献