华北地区地震序列参数的分布特征          下载免费PDF全文

毕金孟  蒋长胜 《地球物理学报》2019,62(11):4300-4312

为系统地考察华北地区地震序列参数的分布特征,以期构建适合区域地震活动特征的短期概率预测模型和评估地震危险性,本文利用当前较为前沿的ETAS模型和R-J模型,采用连续滑动、多时段拟合的方式,对华北地区1970年以来的16个地震序列进行了参数拟合,并对参数的整体情况、参数之间的关系、参数与大地热流之间的关系等特征进行了分析研究.研究结果表明,主震发生后的早期阶段,地震序列参数变化相对较为剧烈,误差也较大;两种地震预测模型的序列参数呈现出一种优势分布特征,主要参数的平均值分别为α_ETAS=1.7404±0.3420,p_ETAS=0.9769±0.1396,a_OML=-1.6638±0.5284,b_OML=0.8312±0.1658,p_OML=0.9053±0.1527,这与国际上其他区域的研究具有很强的一致性;大多数情况下,ETAS模型参数p_ETAS高于R-J模型参数p_OML,平均偏高0.0716;序列参数α_ETAS与大地热流值整体上呈现一种负相关关系,激发次级余震的能力与大地热流具有一定的相关性.地震序列参数的分布特征以及与大地热流之间的关系对地震序列类型的判断,及基于地震序列参数构建定量化的短期概率预测模型,均有重要的应用价值.  相似文献   

Long‐range terrestrial laser scanning for geomorphological change detection in alpine terrain – handling uncertainties          下载免费PDF全文

Christine Fey  Volker Wichmann 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(5):789-802

Long‐range terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) is an emerging method for the monitoring of alpine slopes in the vicinity of infrastructure. Nevertheless, deformation monitoring of alpine natural terrain is difficult and becomes even more challenging with larger scan distances. In this study we present approaches for the handling of spatially variable measurement uncertainties in the context of geomorphological change detection using multi‐temporal data sets. A robust distance measurement is developed, which deals with surface roughness and areas of lower point densities. The level of detection (LOD), i.e. the threshold distinguishing between real surface change and data noise, is based on a confidence interval considering the spatial variability of TLS errors caused by large laser footprints, low incidence angles and surface roughness. Spatially variable positional uncertainties are modelled for each point according to its range and the object geometry hit. The local point cloud roughness is estimated in the distance calculation process from the variance of least‐squares fitted planes. Distance calculation and LOD assessment are applied in two study areas in the Eastern Alps (Austria) using multi‐temporal laser scanning data sets of slopes surrounding reservoir lakes. At Finstertal, two TLS point clouds of high alpine terrain and scanned from ranges between 300 and 1800 m are compared. At Gepatsch, the comparison is done between an airborne laser scanning (ALS) and a TLS point cloud of a vegetated mountain slope scanned from ranges between 600 and 3600 m. Although these data sets feature different conditions regarding the scan setup and the surface conditions, the presented approach makes it possible to reliably analyse the geomorphological activity. This includes the automatic detection of rock glacier movement, rockfall and debris slides, even in areas where a difference in vegetation cover could be observed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献