华南前汛期广东暴雨分区动力特征及特大暴雨分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

王坚红  徐碧裕  刘刚  徐安高 《气象与环境学报》2014,30(6):43-51

依据2009－2013 年华南地区72 测站逐日降水资料,利用 REOF方法、合成分析等方法,分析华南前汛期（4-6 月）暴雨时空特征。结果表明：暴雨降水量占总降水量34.6%,年暴雨日数170天以上。REOF方法分析获得华南前汛期5个暴雨模态区, 其中广东两模态区中心荷载强于其余3个区,降雨更多,雨强更大。合成分析显示,广东北部暴雨区受西风带系统影响为主, 暴雨中尺度系统为气旋及变形场锋生。沿海暴雨区受副热带系统控制为主,中尺度系统主要为低空急流,输送气旋式切变和旋转涡度,及低空速度辐合, 并提供自海上来的充沛水汽,造成沿海区暴雨远强于北部区。 近5 a前汛期广东24 h累积降雨量大于200mm的大暴雨有14次,均发生在沿海暴雨模态区。两区暴雨机制分别为西风带中尺度低值系统锋生降水,和副热带系统暖区登陆地形作用降水。海温SST方面沿海暴雨区环境较北部暴雨区具有更大平均水汽潜热量,含更充沛水汽。而感热场反映沿海暴雨区从下垫面吸收更多热能量,更有利于不稳定暴雨过程维持与加强。对2010 年6 月9 -12 日广东沿海上川岛持续性特大暴雨分析显示,东北阻塞高压强盛与副热带高压西伸北进势均力敌配置,水汽通道和水汽通量散度輻合异常强盛, 湿位涡湿正压项和湿斜压项均构成有利于垂直涡度增长环境, 这些因子维持了特大暴雨过程。  相似文献   

GPS遥感大气可降水量在大连地区3次降水过程中的应用     

程航  程相坤  朱晶  李鸿强  刘晓初 《气象与环境学报》2014,30(5):38-48

利用大连市气象局地基GPS/MET观测网大气可降水量（PWV）数据,分析2011年大连瓦房店、庄河和长海地区降水天气过程PWV的变化特征及其与降水量和降水强度的关系,在此基础上通过分析物理量场和天气系统,探讨大尺度水汽输送、辐合与PWV变化的关系及GPS在暴雨天气中的应用。结果表明：PWV的增长方式受当地天气系统的支配和制约,对一次明显的降水过程,从开始至结束PWV的变化与降水量有明显的相关性。当有水汽由南向北输送时,PWV在降水开始前逐渐增长,当地面及高空有大范围的水汽辐合且高空比湿值大于10 g·kg^-1时,PWV显著增长（降水开始前4-5 h）,主要降水时段与PWV峰值相对应,同时PWV的增幅大小与降水强度有明显的关系。  相似文献   

IUPA: a tool for the evaluation of the general usefulness of practices for adaptation to climate change and variability   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

P. Debels  C. Szlafsztein  P. Aldunce  C. Neri  Y. Carvajal  M. Quintero-Angel  A. Celis  A. Bezanilla  D. Martínez 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(2):211-233

A prototype multi-purpose index is proposed for use in the evaluation of practices for adaptation to climate variability and change. The Index of Usefulness of Practices for Adaptation (IUPA) allows the user to assign weights and scores to a set of user-defined evaluation criteria. Individual criterion scores are aggregated into a final index value. Both the final value and the individual parameter scores provide useful information for improved decision making in the context of climate change. An innovative aspect of IUPA is that guidance is given to the user through the inclusion of recommendations on evaluation criteria and criterion-specific weight factors. These have been defined by a panel of experts from the Latin-American and Caribbean Region (LAC). Application of the index is demonstrated for an existing adaptation practice from the Coquimbo Region, Chile. The IUPA tool is recommended for use in the evaluation of adaptation practices in their design, implementation and post-implementation phase. It is practical for a quick first assessment or when limited financial resources are available, making the tool especially useful for practitioners in the developing world. The index is flexible both from the perspective of its construction and use. Additional expert opinions can easily be included in the future versions of the tool.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal pattern of precipitation and drought in Gansu Province, Northwest China   总被引：8，自引：3，他引：5  

Luxin Zhai  Qi Feng 《Natural Hazards》2009,49(1):1-24

Drought is one of the most harmful natural hazards in Gansu Province in Northwest China. The changes of precipitation affect the severity of drought. In order to recognize the trend of precipitation and understand the effect of rainfall change on water resources management and drought severity, Mann–Kendall test was used. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated to reconstruct the drought at different time scales and analyze the frequency of drought occurrence in the recent 50 years. The results show that the SPI is applicable in Gansu Province. The number of severe droughts differs among regions: it is more obvious as a 3-month drought in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin than in the Inland River Basin, and other droughts at 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales have the same effect in the three regions. Mann–Kendall test results show that there is an upward trend in the summer periods and a downward trend in the autumn-winter-spring intervals ranging from 10.5 mm/10 years to −37.4 mm/10 years, which affect the local water resources management, droughts mitigation, and agriculture decision making. This situation poses challenges for future study.  相似文献   

2003年淮河流域致洪暴雨过程的环流背景及其前兆信号   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  

程华琼  陈菊英 《地球物理学进展》2004,19(2):465-473

分析研究了2003年夏季淮河流域致洪暴雨过程的时空分布特征及其前期和同期欧亚地区环流背景的逐日变化特征,重点分析了致洪暴雨过程发生前后乌山地区阻塞高压强度指数(UBHII)逐日变化特征及其对淮河流域致洪暴雨过程的影响．结果表明：2003年淮河流域持续性强暴雨过程均发生在鸟山阻塞高压强高峰后的减弱期,即在淮河流域发生持续性强暴雨过程之前乌山阻塞高压就发生了突变;同时发现西太平洋副热带高压加强并登陆后的,其北界的位置变化对淮河流域致洪暴雨过程的发生和持续也有十分重要的作用．因此,乌拉尔山阻塞高压异常加强后的突然减弱和西太平洋副热带高压的加强并西进登陆,是淮河流域地区发生持续性暴雨过程的两个重要前兆．  相似文献   

Deep-Sea Sediment Compression Curves: Some Controlling Factors,Spurious Overconsolidation,Predictions, and Geophysical Reproduction     

Sinclair Buchan  Denzil Taylor Smith 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2013,31(1):65-81

Oedometer tests have been carried out on 70 undisturbed surficial clays (at approximately 250 mm below the mudline), mostly collected by free-fall corers from sites widely scattered throughout the deep-sea North Atlantic. Acoustic measurements were also made, initially on contiguous samples and ultimately on the same sample using a geophysically instrumented oedometer which also collected electrical resistivity data. Apart from those quiescent areas below the carbonate compensation depth, such as north of the West Indies where very fine clays exist, most of the samples are silty clays whose geotechnical-geophysical properties are dependent on the type of clay minerals present (and their ability to take in moisture), the sand-size fraction, and the quantity of carbonate present. Thus the pure clays have high compressibilities which decrease on the addition of coarse particles, while the converse is true for the acoustic parameters, these increasing with the sand fraction. Using the notion of the intrinsic compression line for all samples, and comparison to it of the measured compression curves, it is clear that, contrary to some previously held ideas, most deep-sea clays are normally consolidated; the addition of carbonate has the effect of creating an open, stronger sediment skeleton. Interestingly, where information is available, the variation with depth of a sample's acoustic velocity follows the void ratio pressure relationship of the compression curve. This allows the construction of an in-situ sediment compression curve using the in-situ geophysical observations.  相似文献   

不同气候情景下华北平原蒸发与径流时空变化分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

莫兴国  孟德娟  刘苏峡  林忠辉  夏军 《气候变化研究进展》2012,8(6):409-416

基于中国气象局国家气候中心生成的IPCC第四次评估报告中23种气候模式的情景集成数据,采用Schreiber公式和Thornthwaite方法计算实际蒸发和径流,分析了2001-2060年SRES A1B、A2和 B1这3种情景下,华北平原气温、降水、蒸发与径流的时空变化。结果表明：未来华北平原气温呈升高趋势,且冬半年升温幅度大于夏半年;降水亦呈增加趋势,而冬半年降水增加幅度小于夏半年;与此相应,华北平原蒸发和年径流呈增加趋势,增幅和空间差异随时间推移而增大,到2041-2060年蒸发将上升7.1%～9.4%,径流将增加8.7%～10.7%。  相似文献   

地质灾害易发性区划的系统概念模型研究     

杨建成 《东北地震研究》2012,28(2):34-38

从系统的角度考察地质灾害,可以将其看成一个地质系统。据水桶理论,系统的功能水平取决于系统中最脆弱的部分,地质灾害体的致灾也符合此规律。从此种观点出发,笔者构建了一个易于理解、易于操作、可量化的地质灾害概念模型,并对此模型进行了适用性说明和评价。  相似文献   

Trends of urban air pollution in Zhengzhou City in 1996–2008     

Xile Du  Changhe Lu  Hairong Wang  Jianhua Ma 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2012,22(4):402-413

Urban air pollution is a commonly concerned environmental problem in the world.Identification of air quality trend using long-term monitoring data is helpful to understand the effectiveness of pollution control strategies.This study,using data from six monitoring stations in Zhengzhou City,analyzed the changing trend in concentrations of SO 2,NO x /NO 2 and TSP/PM 10 in 1996-2008,based on non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator,and evaluated the comprehensive air pollution level using Multi-Pollutant Index(MPI).It was found that the concentration of each pollutant exceeded obviously the World Health Organization(WHO) guideline value,but the changing trend varied:SO 2 and NO 2 were significantly increased mainly due to an increase in coal consumption and vehicle number,while NO x,TSP and PM 10 decreased.The air pollution was serious,and differed markedly among the three functional regions:it is the most severe in the Industrial and Residential Area(IRA),followed by the Transportation Hub and Business District(THBD),and then the High-tech,Cultural and Educational Area(HCEA).Different from NO 2 concentration that had a similar change trend/rate among the function regions,the change rate of PM 10 concentration differed spatially,decreased much more obviously in THBD than other two regions.For the whole city,the comprehensive air pollution level declined gradually,illustrating that the air quality in Zhengzhou was improved in the last decade.  相似文献   

新疆草地气候生产潜力变化特征及对气候响应的预测研究     

张锐  刘普幸  张克新 《中国沙漠》2012,32(1):181-187

基于新疆地区52个气象站点1959-2008年逐月气温、降水资料,利用Miami模型和Thornthwaite Memorial模型、线性趋势线、ArcGIS反距离权重插值等方法,对新疆草地生产潜力的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明,近50 a来,新疆草地温度、降水、蒸散生产潜力均表现为显著增加,且四季和生长季各生产潜力也呈线性增加,夏季和生长季增幅最大,其次,草地生产潜力以及增幅均表现为北疆高于南疆,基本为由南向北递增,并和多年平均降水量变化一致。其中,水分条件是影响新疆草地生产潜力的主导因素。根据二元一次线性回归方程计算得出,年平均气温每升高/降低1 ℃,草地的年气候生产力增加/减少17.309 kg·hm-2·a-1,年降水量每增加/减少1 mm,草地的年气候生产力增加/减少24.392 kg·hm-2·a-1。  相似文献