一种利用贝叶斯最小判别准则估计未来地震危险的新方法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

金学申  邵辉成 《中国地震》1998,14(3):88-93

提出了一种基于最大似然和贝叶斯最小判别准则的新预测方法,它的长处在于对样本数无特殊要求,所以,对低地震活动地区,此模型也能得到与时间有关的稳定的未来强震危险估计。最后,以华北地区为例,说明了本方法的可行性。  相似文献   

Shallow landslides in deeply weathered slates of the Sierra de Collcerola (Catalonian Coastal Range, Spain)     

Domenico Calcaterra  Jos A. Gili  Roberto Iovinelli 《Engineering Geology》1998,50(3-4):283-298

Stability conditions in an area located NW of Barcelona (Spain) are discussed. Here, several mass movements were observed, mainly affecting weathered Paleozoic slates. Many of these failures involved slopes cut along recent infrastructures: debris flows, wedge and plane failures, generally surficial, occurred more frequently. After a detailed geological and geomorphologic survey, geomechanic characterization was carried out, according to RMR and SMR classifications. This rating gave a prediction of slope behaviour, in fairly good agreement with the real observed one.

Stability numerical analysis was carried out for the main cut slopes, based upon the Limit Equilibrium Method. First of all, the deterministic factor of safety was computed using the mean values of parameters. After that, a simulation technique based upon the Monte Carlo Method was applied in order to obtain factor of safety distributions. The probability of failure was estimated as P(F<1).

Finally, results from deterministic and probabilistic approaches were compared. The effectiveness of different possible remedial measures was highlighted by means of a sensitivity analysis, which showed that the more important parameters in the study area are the geometrical ones (height, slope and failure plane angles). The final technical solutions adopted are briefly outlined.  相似文献   

逆斜率法及其讨论     

吴耀华 《上海国土资源》1998,(1):29-34,45

经对上海地区51根试桩资料分析表明,同实测值比较,计算值误差一般不超过30％,误差与未次加载的ΔSn/ΔPn比值似有一定的相关性,当比值大于2,误差一般不超过20％,同时对没有达到终至加载条件的试桩也可采用此法估算。  相似文献   

位移时空综合分析法及其在边坡工程中的应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

尚彦军  唐纯华 《工程地质学报》1998,6(3):238-243

以往对监测位移数据分析方法主要是位移-时间关系分析。但监测数据包含了大量对工程设计和施工都很有用的信息,其中不乏位移-空间方面的信息;另一方面,从工程设计和施工角度看,除需要位移-时间信息外,还需要位移-空间信息。位移时空综合分析法的提出旨在综合位移-时间和位移-空间等两方面的信息,为工程设计和施工服务。该方法依表现形式不同又分为竖线法和曲面法两种。本文将通过五强溪船闸边坡工程实例,来进一步说明位移时空综合分析法的原理及其应用。  相似文献   

The generation and redistribution of overland flow on a massive oxic soil in a eucalypt woodland within the semi-arid tropics of North Australia     

Mike Bonell  John Williams 《水文研究》1986,1(1):31-46

There is a dearth of knowledge on the runoff processes of eucalypt woodland communities in the semi-arid tropics of Australia. The work was undertaken on a 100 m transect of a 0·8 degree hillslope typical of the ‘smooth plainlands’ of central-north Queensland. This paper introduces a new experimental design for measuring overland flow in such areas by way of a cascade system of unbounded runoff plots which allow the inputs and outputs between troughs to be calculated. Most storms generate overland flow. Time to overland flow ranges between 1 and 18 min where rain intensities are above 10mm hr⁻¹ and when the average detention storage of 3·6 mm is exceeded. The bare soil surfaces within the scattered grass understory control the runoff generation process through the temporal variability of field saturated hydraulic conductivity. The study demonstrated that overland flow is mainly redistributed over the freely-draining oxic soil. Some areas export more overland flow than they gain from upslope (runoff), others gain more overland flow than they export (runon). Over the study period only 2 per cent of total rain is transferred out of this 100 m transect as overland flow due to the short duration of storms, the relatively high soil permeability, and the low slope angle. The remainder adds to the large soil water store or deep drainage. The variability of runoff–runon over these ‘smooth plainlands’ highlights how results from bounded plots would be misleading in such areas.  相似文献   

Three-dimensional simulations of a starburst wind     

Jackie L. Cooper  Geoffrey V. Bicknell  Ralph S. Sutherland  Joss Bland-Hawthorn 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2007,311(1-3):99-103

In order to better understand the formation of a starburst-driven wind, we have performed a series of three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations in an inhomogeneous interstellar medium. We present the results of these simulations, which provide new insights into the formation of the optical filaments and the origin of the soft X-ray emission.  相似文献   

Seismic amplifications from offshore to shore     

《Applied Ocean Research》2015

The objective of this study is to determine numerical estimations of seismic amplifications of waves traveling from offshore to shore considering the effect of sea floor configurations. According to the Boundary Element Method, boundary elements were used to irradiate waves and density force can be determined for each element. From this hypothesis, Huygens’ Principle is implemented since diffracted waves are constructed at the boundary from which they are radiated and this is equivalent to Somigliana's theorem. Application of boundary conditions leads to determine a system of integral equations of Fredholm type of second kind, which is solved by the Gaussian method. Various numerical models were analyzed, a first one was used to validate the proposed formulation and some other models were used to show various ideal sea floor configurations to estimate seismic amplifications. Once the formulation was validated, basic slope configurations were studied for estimating spectra of seismic amplifications for various sea floor materials. In general terms, compressional waves (P-waves) can produce seismic amplifications of the incident wave in the order of 2–5. On the other hand, distortional waves (S-waves) can produce amplifications up to 5.5 times the incident wave. A relevant finding is that the highest seismic amplifications due to an offshore earthquake are always located near the shore-line and not offshore despite the seafloor configuration.  相似文献   

Multi-resolution adaptive modeling of groundwater flow and transport problems     

H. Gotovac  R. Andricevic  B. Gotovac 《Advances in water resources》2007

Many groundwater flow and transport problems, especially those with sharp fronts, narrow transition zones, layers and fingers, require extensive computational resources. In this paper, we present a novel multi-resolution adaptive Fup approach to solve the above mentioned problems. Our numerical procedure is the Adaptive Fup Collocation Method (AFCM), based on Fup basis functions and designed through a method of lines (MOL). Fup basis functions are localized and infinitely differentiable functions with compact support and are related to more standard choices such as splines or wavelets. This method enables the adaptive multi-resolution approach to solve problems with different spatial and temporal scales with a desired level of accuracy using the entire family of Fup basis functions. In addition, the utilized collocation algorithm enables the mesh free approach with consistent velocity approximation and flux continuity due to properties of the Fup basis functions. The introduced numerical procedure was tested and verified by a few characteristic groundwater flow and transport problems, the Buckley–Leverett multiphase flow problem, the 1-D vertical density driven problem and the standard 2-D seawater intrusion benchmark–Henry problem. The results demonstrate that the method is robust and efficient particularly when describing sharp fronts and narrow transition zones changing in space and time.  相似文献   

可控源音频大地电磁法深部找矿实验效果   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

张国鸿  李仁和 《物探与化探》2010,34(1):66-70

为了考查电磁法在探测深部金属矿及地质构造方面的实际效果,用可控源音频大地电磁法分别在埋深为500 m和1 100 m的两个已知隐伏铁、铜矿体上进行了实验工作。实验结果表明地电异常显示了矿体、断层以及岩层接触带的分布。在矿体埋藏深度小于500 m、矿层较厚时,地电异常十分明显;若矿体埋藏深度大于1 000 m,地电异常主要反应了控矿、容矿构造。  相似文献   

悬链线法在水平定向钻轨迹设计中的应用探究     

杨先亢  兰海涛  遆仲森  马保松 《岩土钻凿工程》2010,(1):47-50

铝孔轨迹设计是非开挖水平定向钻施工中一项重要内容。其最优化设计在国内已较成熟,但多数优化设计未从力学方面进行优化设计。针对这一情况,引入悬链线法来优化水平定向钻轨迹设计。通过悬链线法的计算可知,优化后的轨迹不仅有利于降低钻杆回转阻力和扭矩消耗,提高机械钻速,增长管道使用年限,同时与传统设计方法相比较,其计算出的轨迹长度也比传统圆弧轨迹长度略短,表明了悬链线法在水平定向钻轨迹设计上具有一定的优势。  相似文献