概率密度匹配方法在我国近海海面10m风速预报中的应用     

胡海川  赵伟  董林 《热带气象学报》2021,37(1):91-101

海面风速对航运及海上生产作业影响重大,但数值模式对于海面的风速预报仍存在较大误差.为降低数值模式海面10 m风速预报的系统性误差,提高海上大风预报准确率,基于2017-2019年中国气象局地面气象观测资料对ECMWF确定性模式的10 m风场预报结果进行检验评估,并采用概率密度匹配方法对模式误差进行订正.分析结果表明,概...  相似文献   

递减平均法与一元线性回归法对ECMWF温度预报订正能力对比     

王丹  王建鹏  白庆梅  高红燕 《气象》2019,45(9):1310-1321

基于ECMWF细网格模式的定时最高(低)气温预报产品,针对2017年陕西99个国家级气象站的日最高(低)气温预报,检验和比较了递减平均法和一元线性回归法两种方法对气温预报误差的订正效果。结果表明,两种方法都显著地提高了日最高(低)气温的预报准确率,随着预报时效的延长,订正能力逐渐减弱。技巧评分与模式对气温的预报能力有显著的负相关关系,秦岭及其以南地区的日最高气温预报和秦岭以北地区的日最低气温预报的准确率偏低,其技巧评分一般超过40%,极大值超过70%。两种方法都有效降低了系统误差,较小误差范围的站次增多,较大误差范围的站次减少,对日最高气温在预报绝对误差≤2℃误差范围的订正能力较为突出,对日最低气温在预报绝对误差≥3℃误差范围的订正更有优势。一元线性回归法对日最高气温预报的订正能力略优于递减平均法,对日最低气温预报的订正能力不及递减平均法,利用这两种方法对气温预报进行混合订正的效果更佳。  相似文献   

0.2 m高分辨率双侧向测井仪器仿真设计     

童茂松  张加举  丁柱 《世界地质》2020,39(1):141-149

为满足油田薄层及薄互层开发的需求,采用数值模拟与电路仿真联合的交互式仪器仿真设计方法,开发了高分辨率数字聚焦双侧向测井仪器。通过仪器仿真,形成了纵向分辨率为0.2 m、深浅侧向探测深度分别为1.09 m、0.38 m的双侧向测井电极系,并得到了不同地层条件下测量信号的幅度以及视电阻率测量误差。现场应用效果表明,所设计的双侧向测井仪器的纵向分辨率与探测深度达到了理论指标,曲线重复性满足质量要求。仪器仿真方法有效地沟通了理论设计与仪器实现,不仅有助于0.2 m高分辨率双侧向测井仪器开发,同样也适用于电极型测井仪器设计。  相似文献   

Quota discarding and distributive justice: The case of the under-10 m fishing fleet in Sussex,England     

Tim Gray  R.C. Korda  Selina Stead  Estelle Jones 《Marine Policy》2011

Marine fish discarding has become a contentious environmental issue, but little attention has been paid to the moral grievances that sometimes underlie discarding practices. This article explores such a moral grievance through a case study of the under-10 m fishery in Sussex, England, where discarding of cod (Gadus morhua) has become a highly charged issue, skippers blaming it on unjust quota allocations. The moral claim to a greater quota allocation is analysed using two conceptions of distributive justice, entitlement and desert. The conclusion reached is that the under-10 m fleet’s entitlement arguments for a higher quota are weaker than their desert arguments, but that entitlement arguments weigh more heavily than desert arguments with government when it allocates quota.  相似文献   

A Local Least-Squares Modification of Stokes’ Formula     

L.E. Sjöberg 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2005,49(1):23-30

The combination of Stokes formula and an Earth Gravity Model (EGM) for geoid determination has become a standard procedure. However, the way of modifying Stokes formula vary from author to author, and numerous methods of modification exist. Most methods are deterministic, with the primary goal of reducing the truncation bias committed by limiting the area of Stokes integration around the computation point, but there are also some stochastic methods with the explicit goal to reduce the global mean square error of the geoid height estimator stemming from the truncation bias as well as the random errors of the EGM and the gravity data. The latter estimators are thus, at least from a theoretical point of view, optimal in a global mean sense, but in a local sense they may be far from optimality.Here we take advantage of the error variance-covariance matrices of the EGM and the terrestrial gravity data to derive the modification parameters of Stokes kernel in a local least-squares sense. The solution is given for the unbiased type of modification of Stokes formula of Sjöberg (1991).  相似文献   

福建省漳平大坑煤矿区产盂井田深部煤炭资源潜力分析     

林晨 《中国煤田地质》2005,17(Z1):1-3

在重新分析了大坑煤矿区产盂井田历次勘查资料后,认为以往的地质报告存在地层划分、煤层对比、构造连接缺乏依据等方面的问题.而钻孔孔斜大,穿层效果差,对大坑组的成煤环境分析不正确等,是造成对该井田煤炭资源赋存状况认识不可信的主要原因.文章认为,产盂井田深部仍具有一定的煤炭资源潜力,值得进一步勘查和开发利用.  相似文献   

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE OPHIOLITIC MELANGE IN THE YALU TSANGPU GRAND CANYON AREA   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Geng Quanru  Pan Guitang  Liu Yuping  Zheng Lailing  Liu Chaoji WT  ”BX 《地学前缘》2000,(Z1)

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE OPHIOLITIC MELANGE IN THE YALU TSANGPU GRAND CANYON AREA  相似文献   

溢油物理化学性质灰色模式的研究     

徐恒振  马永安  尚龙生  周传光  李洪  姚子伟  张国光  孙育红  吴之庆  杨庆霄 《海洋学报》2000,22(6):55-62

应用灰色系统理论对海面溢油物理化学性质(蒸发率、溶解率、表面张力、黏度和密度)在风化过程中的变化进行研究,建立了溢油物理化学性质在风化过程中的预测模式GM(1,1)和GM(0,m).结果表明,在风化过程中,溢油物理化学性质的GM(1,1)和GM(0,m)模式预测精度令人满意,皆符合统计学检验的要求;在风化过程中,溢油物理化学性质所具有的灰色相关性可用GM(0,m)模式的灰色辨识参数来表征;在风化过程中,溢油的蒸发率和溶解率可分别用表面张力、黏度和密度作为预报因子。  相似文献   

2002年春季吕宋海峡海流观测及其谱分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

袁耀初  王惠群  楼如云  陈洪  王康墡 《海洋学报》2005,27(4):1-9

基于2002年春季航次在吕宋海峡海域锚碇测流站(20°49'57"N,120°48'12"E)200,500与800m锚碇测流水层观测流,进行的海流特征分析与最大熵方法谱分析,得到以下主要结果.(1)在200m处,观测期间海流平均速度为(47.4cm/s,346°),最大观测海流速度V_max和最大日平均海流速度V_d,max分别为(103.8cm/s,10°)和(71.6cm/s,339°);在500m处,观测期间平均流速为(20.3cm/s,350°),最大观测海流速度V_max和最大日平均海流速度V_d,max分别为(74.1cm/s,17°)和(39.1cm/s,317°).这些都表明黑潮在吕宋海峡锚碇测流站200和500m处向西北方向入侵南海.(2)在800m处,观测期间平均流速为(1.2cm/s,35°),最大观测海流速度V_max和最大日平均海流速度V_d,max分别为(10.8cm/s,76°)和(4.7cm/s,46°).这些都表明,它们的流向皆为东北向.比较在每层实测流的结果,表明在800m层海流状况与200和500m层海流状况是不相同的,流速随深度变深明显减弱,流向向右偏转.(3)在观测期间200,500和800m处,日平均流速在4月皆比3月时要强.(4)在200～800m潮流随深度变深有所变化,除了在500m处f<0情况全日潮峰值高于半日潮峰值以及对于半日潮以逆时针方向为主以外,其余情况在200～800m水层半日潮峰值都要高于全日潮的峰值,并且皆以顺时针方向旋转为主.(5)在200～800m水层都存在15d以上或14d左右的周期振动,例如在逆时针方向分量谱(f>0)在200,500m处存在19d左右的周期振动;在800m处存在14d左右的周期振动(f<0).(6)在200～800m处都存在4～6d周期天气过程的振动和2～3d周期振动.还都存在34.5h左右惯性振动周期,它的振动方向为顺时针方向.(7)通过交叉谱的计算,揭示:1)200与500m层两组流速时间序列对于半日潮周期、全日潮周期、15d以上的周期振动、2～3d的周期振动等都有很好的相关性,且对15d以上的长周期振动几乎是同步的;2)500与800m层两组流速时间序列对于4～6d天气过程的周期振动与2～3d的周期振动等都有很好的相关性,但它们之间有相位差,有滞后或提前现象.  相似文献   

Comparison of Two Sample Preparation Methods for X‐Ray Fluorescence Spectrometry in the Determination of Ni and Cr     

Surendra P. Verma  Rosalinda González‐Ramírez  Rodolfo Rodríguez‐Ríos 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2011,35(2):183-192

Pressed powder pellets and fused beads or glass disks are routinely used in X‐ray fluorescence spectrometry for the determination of major and trace elements, respectively, in geological materials. In order to evaluate the performance of these two sample preparation methods, we determined Ni and Cr concentrations of fourteen RMs from Japan, France and South Africa, and eighty‐five igneous and three sedimentary rock samples from Mexico in both powder pellets and glass beads. We also computed new values of statistical parameters for RMs from an outlier‐based multiple‐test method and compared them with the literature mean and confidence limit values. The results showed that the multiple‐test method provided more reliable central tendency and dispersion parameters for RMs than those obtained previously from the two or three standard deviation method, or from robust methods. The powder pellet and fused bead sample preparation methods provided consistent results for Ni and Cr at concentration levels > 50 μg g^?1 in this application; for lower concentration levels, however, these methods showed somewhat greater differences. For quantitative comparisons, both ordinary and weighted least‐squares linear regression models were used to show that the two sample preparation methods provided generally unbiased results.  相似文献