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41.
A limnogeological reconnaissance study was carried out on Lake Iznik, located in the southeast of the Marmara region of Turkey, involving a seismic survey and collection of short sediment cores. This lake is located on the middle branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), a transform plate boundary between the Eurasian and Anatolian Plates. It is, therefore, tectonically active and offers an opportunity to investigate the interplay of sedimentary and seismo-tectonic processes, as well as climate change and human impact in the region. Short cores of the three sub-basins, maximum length of 35.5 cm, recovered non-laminated, blackish clays and silts with varying amounts of biogenic and minerogenic (allochthonous, autochthonous) material, which documented almost the last 80 years of deposition and environmental history. High sedimentation rates in the deeper core sections are accompanied by changes in land use (conversion of woodland to farmland) in the northern areas of Lake Iznik, which caused the deposition of more weathered material (high K/Na ratios) and higher contents of Mn in the lake. A tendency towards eutrophic conditions within the last 20 years is indicated by high nutrient content (N, TOC, P), decreasing C/N-ratios, and characteristic diatom and cladoceran associations. Also increased pollution is revealed by higher Pb, Cu, and Zn contents and increased supply of human and animal faeces (high coprostanol content) during the last two decades. But simultaneous lower sedimentation rates towards the core tops complicate the reconstruction of recent and past eutrophication and pollution states of Lake Iznik. This requires an extension of the pilot study and deeper sediment cores, to recover non-anthropogenic influenced sediment levels.  相似文献   
42.
This paper presents the results of ground vibration measurements carried out in Hisarcik Boron open pit mine located on the west side of central Anatolia near Kütahya province in Turkey. Within the scope of this study to predict peak particle velocity (PPV) level for this site, ground vibration components were measured for 304 shots during bench blasting. In blasting operations, ANFO (blasting agent), gelatin dynamite (priming), and delay electric detonators (firing) were used as explosives. Parameters of scaled distance (charge quantity per delay and the distance between the source and the station) were recorded carefully and the ground vibration components were measured for all blast events using two different types of vibration monitors (one White Mini-Seis and one Instantel Minimate Plus Model). The absolute distances between shot points and monitor stations were determined using GPS. The equation of square root scaled distance extensively used in the literature was taken into consideration for the prediction of PPV. Then, the data pairs of scaled distance and particle velocity obtained from the 565 event records were analyzed statistically. At the end of statistical evaluation of the data pairs, an empirical relation which gives 50% prediction line with a reasonable correlation coefficient was established between PPV and scaled distance.  相似文献   
43.
一次“高影响天气”的弱降雪过程的数值研究   总被引:11,自引:2,他引:11       下载免费PDF全文
该文对2001年12月7日下午北京的一次弱降雪天气过程进行了诊断分析和数值模拟研究。诊断结果表明:北京地区由于受500 hPa小槽东移及850 hPa东移小高压后部带来的来自东海和南海的偏南暖湿气流共同影响,造成降雪。数值模拟结果显示:MM5模式对这次降雪过程具有较好的模拟能力,不仅模拟出了北京地区的降雪量,而且对这次过程大尺度背景场的演变、触发机制和水汽源有很好的表述。利用诊断分析和数值模拟结果,对这次弱降雪过程引起交通大阻塞的可能因素进行了探讨,说明建立城市预警系统的迫切性。  相似文献   
44.
Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ecosystem services under such environmental change. They cannot answer important policy-relevant questions such as 'Which are the main regions or sectors that are most vulnerable to global change?’ 'How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare?’ 'Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector?’This paper describes a new approach to vulnerability assessment developed by the Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM) project. Different ecosystem models, covering biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, and carbon sequestration are fed with the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Each model gives insights into specific ecosystems, as in traditional impact assessments. Moreover, by integrating the results in a vulnerability assessment, the policy-relevant questions listed above can also be addressed. A statistically derived European environmental stratification forms a key element in the vulnerability assessment. By linking it to other quantitative environmental stratifications, comparisons can be made using data from different assessments and spatial scales.  相似文献   
45.
近十年来我国气候变暖影响研究的若干进展   总被引:51,自引:12,他引:51       下载免费PDF全文
近年来,我国政府和科技界十分关注气候王馥棠变暖对我国经济发展可能影响的评估, 开展了许多重大项目和课题的研究。该文仅就气候变暖对我国自然植被、农业、森林、水资源、能源利用和区域海平面上升等领域影响评估研究的若干有意义的初步结果简要归纳和评述如下:取自不同GCM模型的未来气候变化情景下的影响评估模拟表明,我国的特征性自然植被类型将会发生明显的变化。同当前气候(1951~1980年)下的模拟分布相比,到2050年我国几乎所有地方的农业种植制度均将发生较大变化;气候变暖将导致复种指数增加和种植方式多样化,但降水与蒸散之间可能出现的负平衡和土壤水分胁迫的增加以及生育期的可能缩短,最终将导致我国主要作物的产量下降。气候变暖对我国水资源最明显的影响将会发生在黄淮海流域,这个区域的水资源供需短缺将大大提高。同时,气候变暖将改变我国室内取暖和降温的能源需求关系:北方冬季取暖的能源消耗将减少, 而南方夏季降温的能源消耗将会增加。海平面的上升将使我国三个主要沿海低洼脆弱区,即珠江三角洲、长江三角洲和黄河三角洲,面临部分遭受海水淹没的威胁。  相似文献   
46.
The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km2 caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps.  相似文献   
47.
In the Négron River catchment area (162 km2), surface‐sediment stores are composed of periglacial calcareous ‘grèze’ (5 × 106 t) and loess (21 × 106 t), and Holocene alluvium (12·6 × 106 t), peat (0·6 × 106 t) and colluvium (18·5 × 106 t). Seventy‐five per cent of the Holocene sediments is stored along the thalwegs. Present net sediment yield, calculated from solid discharge at the Négron outlet, is low (0·6 t km?2 a?1) due to the dominance of carbonate rocks in the catchment. Mean sediment yield during the Holocene period is 7·0 t km?2 a?1 from alluvium stores and 7·6 t km?2 a?1 from colluvium stores. Thus, the gross sediment yield during the Holocene period is about 18·7 t km?2 a?1 and the sediment delivery ratio 3 per cent. The yield considerably varies from one sub‐basin to another (3·9 to 24·5 t km?2 a?1) according to lithology: about 25 per cent and 50 per cent of initial stores of periglacial grèze and loess respectively were reworked during the Holocene period. Sediment yield has increased by a factor of 6 in the last 1000 years, due to the development of agriculture. The very high rate of sediment storage on the slope during that period (88 per cent of the yield) can be accounted for by the formation of cultivation steps (‘rideaux’). It is predicted that the current destruction of these steps will result in a sediment wave reaching the valley floors in the coming decades. Subboreal and Subatlantic sediments and pollen assemblages in the Taligny marsh, where one‐third of the alluvium is stored, show the predominant influence of human activity during these periods in the Négron catchment. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
48.
灌淤土壤可溶性盐分空间变异性与棉花生长关系研究   总被引:8,自引:3,他引:8  
运用地统计学方法,在灌淤土壤上进行了棉田土壤可溶性盐分的空间变异规律与棉花生长关系系统研究。传统统计学分析表明土壤盐分测试数据基本符合正态分布;在一定取样间距下,土壤可溶性盐分的田间合理取样数目为27。半方差分析显示:土壤可溶性盐分具中等的水平变异性,但随着聚样深度的增加未表现出明显的垂直变异特性;随着棉花的生长发育,土壤可溶性盐分呈现出逐渐减弱的时间变异规律,采用直线或曲线拟合方程估计了可溶性盐分的半方差图及其参数,并绘制了其相应的等值线图。土壤可溶性盐分与棉花产量之间的相关分析表明:可溶性盐分含量与棉花产量之间呈显著负相关关系,且花铃期的相关性较播前显著。研究结果为提高田间试验有效性以及盐渍化土壤改良提供了科学依据与基础资料。  相似文献   
49.
The post-glacial history of Lake Pieni-Kuuppalanlampi, western Lake Ladoga region, was studied by means of stratigraphic pollen and diatom analyses. Diatoms were analysed to track the isolation history of the basin and the limnological effects of the early land-use phases indicated by pollen analysis. Chrysophycean stomatocysts and Isoëtes spores were also employed in the limnological reconstructions. Sediment dating was provided by six conventional radiocarbon dates.The lower part of the 370-cm long sediment sequence represents early Holocene, large lake conditions: the (freshwater) Yoldia and Ancylus stages of the Baltic basin, with a short-term lagoonal or isolation phase at the end of Yoldia. The basin was isolated due to Ancylus lake regression at 9785 cal B.P. For the small-lake sequence (0–250 cm) we used diatom inferences (WA-method) for hindcasting water chemistry. The post-isolation limnology of Pieni-Kuuppalanlampi reflects the development of vegetation on its small hill-top catchment. In its early development, the lake was mesotrophic, but became more acidic (pH about 6) and oligotrophic after the decline of temperate hardwood trees and the spread of spruce to the area after around 5000 B.P. The lake ecosystem appears to have reacted sensitively to agricultural land-use in the catchment from AD 400–800 onwards: inferred total phosphorus levels and pH both rise during these periods.  相似文献   
50.
Soil erosion assessment and prediction play critical roles in addressing problems associated with erosion control or soil conservation. The past dynamics of soil erosion can provide valuable information for us to understand the relations of soil erosion to environmental change and anthropogenic activity. The present paper has compared Holocene climatic changes in northwestern China with those in southern Norway, and investigated the past dynamics of erosion activity during the Holocene. Modern soil erosion on the Loess Plateau is a combination of the intensive natural erosion and human-induced erosion, the latter being four times greater than the former. Because of global warming and increasing human activities, climate on the Loess Plateau is becoming dryer and more unstable, causing an enhanced erosion problem and water scarcity. In the arctic-alpine region of southern Norway, however, the global warming and regional wetting caused expansion of the largest European ice cap. This has accentuated the erosion in that region, with a higher frequency of avalanches and debris flows.  相似文献   
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