Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to channel erosion uncertainty during extreme flooding          下载免费PDF全文

Jefferson S. Wong  Jim E. Freer  Paul D. Bates  David A. Sear  Elisabeth M. Stephens 《水文研究》2015,29(2):261-279

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilize the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry and channel long‐profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D–2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD‐FP) of the ~1 : 2000 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of simulated scenarios of channel erosional changes were constructed on the basis of a simple velocity‐based model of critical entrainment. A Monte‐Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of this channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected an approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion that enveloped observed erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long‐profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude of event modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead, morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel‐bed rivers such as the one used in this research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Integrating isolated and riparian wetland modules in the PHYSITEL/HYDROTEL modelling platform: model performance and diagnosis          下载免费PDF全文

Maxime Fossey  Alain N. Rousseau  Fatima Bensalma  Stéphane Savary  Alain Royer 《水文研究》2015,29(22):4683-4702

Mathematical modelling is a well‐accepted framework to evaluate the effects of wetlands on stream flow and watershed hydrology in general. Although the integration of wetland modules into a distributed hydrological model represents a cost‐effective way to make this assessment, the added value brought by landscape‐specific modules to a model's ability to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics remains unclear. The objectives of this paper were the following: (i) to present the adaptation of PHYSITEL (a geographic information system) to parameterize isolated and riparian wetlands; (ii) to describe the integration of specific isolated wetland and riparian wetland modules into HYDROTEL, a distributed hydrological model; and (iii) to evaluate the performance of the updated modelling platform with respect to the capacity of replicating various hydrograph characteristics. To achieve this, two sets of simulations were performed (with and without wetland modules), and the added value was assessed at three river segments of the Becancour River watershed, Quebec, Canada, using six general goodness‐of‐fit indicators and 14 water flow criteria. A sensitivity analysis of the wetland module parameters was performed to characterize their impact on stream flows of the modelled watershed. Results of this study indicate the following: (i) integration of specific wetland modules can slightly increase the capacity of HYDROTEL to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics; and (ii) the updated modelling platform allows for the explicit assessment of the impact of wetlands (e.g. typology and location) on watershed hydrology. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Groundwater mixing between different aquifer types in a complex structural setting discerned by elemental and stable isotope geochemistry          下载免费PDF全文

Dorina Murgulet  Marlon Cook  Valeriu Murgulet 《水文研究》2016,30(3):410-423

Karst aquifers are well known for their intricate stratigraphy and geologic structures, which make groundwater characterization challenging because flowpaths and recharge sources are complex and difficult to evaluate. Geochemical data, collected from ten closely spaced production wells constructed in two karst aquifers (Bangor Limestone (Mb) and Tuscumbia Limestone/Fort Payne Chert (Mftp)) in Trussville, north‐central Alabama, illustrate two distinctive groundwater end‐members: (1) higher major ion, dissolved inorganic carbon, conductivity, alkalinity concentrations, heavier δ¹³C ratios (max: −10.2 ± 0.2‰ Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite (PDB)) and lower residence times (mean: 19.5 ± 2 years, n = 2) of groundwater in the Mb aquifer and (2) lower constituent concentrations, lighter δ¹³C ratios (min: −13.4 ± 0.2‰ PDB) and longer residence times of groundwater (mean: 23.6 ± 2 years, n = 4) in the Mftp aquifer. Summer and fall data and the binary mixing model show aquifer inter‐flow mixing along solution fractures and confirms the distinctive groundwater geochemistry of the two aquifers. Lowering of static water levels over the summer (drawdown from 2 to 5.2 m) leads to more reducing groundwater conditions (lower Eh values) and slightly enriched δ¹⁸O and δD ratios during the fall [δ¹⁸O: −4.8 ± 0.1 to −5.4 ± 0.1‰ Vienna Standard Mean Oceanic Water (VSMOW), n = 9; δD: −25.4 ± 1 to −27.4 ± 1‰ VSMOW, n = 9] when compared with summer season samples (δ¹⁸O: −5.1 ± 0.1 to −5.7 ± 0.1‰ VSMOW, n = 11; δD: −25.0 ± 1 to −30.6 ± 1‰ VSMOW, n = 11). GIS analyses confirm the localized origin of recharge to the investigated aquifers. The combination of GIS, field parameters and geochemistry analyses can be successfully used to identify recharge sources, evaluate groundwater flow and transport pathways and to improve understanding of how groundwater withdrawals impact the sustainability and susceptibility to contamination of karst aquifers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of soil parameters in unsaturated zone modelling and the relation between effective,laboratory and in situ estimates     

J. Mertens  H. Madsen  M. Kristensen  D. Jacques  J. Feyen 《水文研究》2005,19(8):1611-1633

Simulation of soil moisture content requires effective soil hydraulic parameters that are valid at the modelling scale. This study investigates how these parameters can be estimated by inverse modelling using soil moisture measurements at 25 locations at three different depths (at the surface, at 30 and 60 cm depth) on an 80 by 20 m hillslope. The study presents two global sensitivity analyses to investigate the sensitivity in simulated soil moisture content of the different hydraulic parameters used in a one‐dimensional unsaturated zone model based on Richards' equation. For estimation of the effective parameters the shuffled complex evolution algorithm is applied. These estimated parameters are compared to their measured laboratory and in situ equivalents. Soil hydraulic functions were estimated in the laboratory on 100 cm³ undisturbed soil cores collected at 115 locations situated in two horizons in three profile pits along the hillslope. Furthermore, in situ field saturated hydraulic conductivity was estimated at 120 locations using single‐ring pressure infiltrometer measurements. The sensitivity analysis of 13 soil physical parameters (saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s), saturated moisture content (θ_s), residual moisture content (θ_r), inverse of the air‐entry value (α), van Genuchten shape parameter (n), Averjanov shape parameter (N) for both horizons, and depth (d) from surface to B horizon) in a two‐layer single column model showed that the parameter N is the least sensitive parameter. K_s of both horizons, θ_s of the A horizon and d were found to be the most sensitive parameters. Distributions over all locations of the effective parameters and the distributions of the estimated soil physical parameters from the undisturbed soil samples and the single‐ring pressure infiltrometer estimates were found significantly different at a 5% level for all parameters except for α of the A horizon and K_s and θ_s of the B horizon. Different reasons are discussed to explain these large differences. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

莱州湾沿岸寿光、莱州和龙口地下水的稳定同位素与地球化学   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

杨巧凤  王瑞久  徐素宁  李文鹏  王志一  梅军军  丁志磊  杨培杰 《地质学报》2016,90(4):801-817

依据地下水咸化机理:蒸发、溶解和混合,海水入侵是地下淡水与较之更咸的海水的混合,海水和淡水的混合包括水分子的混合和溶解盐分的混合。只有溶剂水分子和溶质溶解盐分都发生了相同比例的混合,才能确定二种水体发生了混合。地下淡水变咸并不能都归因于海水入侵,也有可能源于蒸发或溶解。鉴定是否存在海水入侵可运用惰性示踪剂和反应示踪剂来共同识别。惰性示踪剂包括δD、δ~(18)O、Cl~-和Br~-,反应示踪剂包括主要化学成分和微量元素。本研究对莱州湾沿岸寿光、莱州和龙口的地下水进行了化学成分形成过程的对比研究。莱州采集样品6件,龙口10件,寿光9件。莱州和龙口的碎屑沉积物以硅酸盐矿物为主,而寿光的沉积物来源于南部鲁中南山地的碳酸盐岩。根据莱州采样点地理条件和样品的稳定同位素δD-δ~(18)O分布域确定了当地降雨入渗的多年平均值,进而明确龙口样品也源于就地降雨入渗补给,根据高程效应和当地水文情况确定寿光样品补给来自南部山区的降水,经河道排入洼地后入渗地下。Cl~--δ~(18)O关系表明盐分都来源于淡水溶解的蒸发盐,而非与海水混合。Br~-/Cl~-比值证实了蒸发盐溶解,还存在人为污染物和海侵沉积物中有机质分解的影响。从三线图可看出龙口样品经历了离子交换反应。主要成分和微量元素(HCO_3~-,H_2SiO_3,F~-,Li~+,Sr~(2+)和Ba~(2+))的含量与样品所处含水层的矿物组成有关,反映出水岩作用。所有样品都没有淡水和海水混合的现象。惰性示踪剂分析提供了区域地下水补给的框架,明确了大气水源因溶解蒸发盐而咸化,排除了淡水和海水混合的可能性。用反应示踪剂中主要化学成分和微量元素来分析水中化学成分的形成过程,在和海洋盐分输入对比基础上,二者偏差值主要源自水-岩相互作用结果,包括溶解、沉淀、离子交换等,以及局部样品的污染物输入。所以沿海地带研究地下水咸化,先要解决溶剂的混合问题,在此基础上辅以水文地球化学分析,利用水化学的多种示踪剂,主要解决溶质混合以及盐分来源问题。  相似文献   

基于灵敏度分析的海洋油气资源BP神经网络预测模型的优化   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

赵健  刘展 《海洋科学》2016,40(5):103-108

作者针对BP神经网络结构设计中存在的问题,提出利用灵敏度分析方法对BP神经网络预测模型进行优化。通过BP算法与参数灵敏度分析的结合,寻找网络输入属性与输出属性之间的影响因子;在保证精度的前提下优选网络输入属性,简化网络结构,以增强网络的泛化能力,减少人为主观因素对网络设计的影响。最后以海洋油气资源预测为例,结合实测资料建立BP神经网络预测模型并进行了优化及预测精度评价,表明优化后的模型既能有效提高油气资源预测结果的稳定性,又不损失预测精度。  相似文献   

基于Neuman井流理论确定玄武岩潜水含水层渗透系数的应用——以吉林靖宇煤矿为例          下载免费PDF全文

段乃金  陈刚  候海巅  徐建 《山东国土资源》2016,32(10)

全面分析研究区玄武岩潜水含水层水文地质条件的基础上,对稳定流和非稳定理论确定潜水含水层渗透系数的优缺点进行了对比,认为非稳定井流公式确定玄武岩潜水含水层渗透系数是合理的。Aquifer Test软件基于Neuman井流理论配线法求参原理,运用计算机完成了自动求参,避免了人工配线的不足。该文根据吉林靖宇煤矿研究区玄武岩潜水含水层非稳定流抽水试验,分别用Aquifer Test软件和稳定井流公式进行了求参,并对比分析得出:玄武岩含水层弹性释水作用影响时间较长,利用Neuman潜水井流公式求参可靠,且更逼近现实;用Aquifer Test软件实现了自动求参,具有操作简单规范、可比性好的优点。  相似文献   

6600 years of earthquake record in the Julian Alps (Lake Bohinj,Slovenia)     

《Sedimentology》2018,65(5):1777-1799

Sequences of lake sediments often form long and continuous records that may be sensitive recorders of seismic shaking. A multi‐proxy analysis of Lake Bohinj sediments associated with a well‐constrained chronology was conducted to reconstruct Holocene seismic activity in the Julian Alps (Slovenia). A seismic reflection survey and sedimentological analyses identified 29 homogenite‐type deposits related to mass‐wasting deposits. The most recent homogenites can be linked to historical regional earthquakes (i.e. 1348 ad , 1511 ad and 1690 ad ) with strong epicentral intensity [greater than ‘damaging’ (VIII ) on the Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik scale]. The correlation between the historical earthquake data set and the homogenites identified in a core isolated from local stream inputs, allows interpretation of all similar deposits as earthquake related. This work extends the earthquake chronicle of the last 6600 years in this area with a total of 29 events recorded. The early Holocene sedimentary record is disturbed by a seismic event (6617 ± 94 cal yr bp ) that reworked previously deposited sediment and led to a thick sediment deposit identified in the seismic survey. The period between 3500 cal yr bp and 2000 cal yr bp is characterized by a major destabilization in the watershed by human activities that led to increases in erosion and sedimentation rates. This change increased the lake's sensitivity to recording an earthquake (earthquake‐sensitivity threshold index) with the occurrence of 72 turbidite‐type deposits over this period. The high turbidite frequency identified could be the consequence of this change in lake earthquake sensitivity and thus these turbidites could be triggered by earthquake shaking, as other origins are discarded. This study illustrates why it is not acceptable to propose a return period for seismic activity recorded in lake sediment if the sedimentation rate varies significantly.  相似文献   

Visual MODFLOW在煤矿建设地下水环境影响评价中的应用 ——以甘肃省灵台县安家庄煤矿为例          下载免费PDF全文

张峰  尹政  何剑波  张玲 《甘肃地质》2018,(1):70-78

结合甘肃省灵台县安家庄煤矿地下水环境影响评价实例,建立了评价区水文地质概念模型,并基于Visual MODFLOW对评价区地下水进行了数值模拟计算和验证;预报了设计开采条件下研究区不同含水层的地下水水位。预报结果表明:矿坑排水使得煤层所在含水层出现疏干现象,并且疏干范围随着开采范围的增加而不断扩大;在煤矿开采作用下,随着模拟时间的延续,煤系层上覆白垩系洛河组—宜君组含水层地下水位降落漏斗的范围及地下水位下降幅度不断增大,但降落漏斗的范围基本上不超过采空区范围;煤矿开采对白垩系环河组含水层无影响,至矿区开采期结束,未引起含水层水位下降;对上部孔隙、裂隙潜水含水层也无影响,至矿区开采期结束未引起含水层水位下降。  相似文献   

IPCC AR6报告解读：地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度     

张华  王菲  赵树云  谢冰 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(6):691-698

文中对IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组（WGI）报告的第七章关于地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度中的重要内容进行了凝练,并简要总结该方面的最新研究成果和结论。评估显示,自工业革命以来,人类活动造成的有效辐射强迫（ERF）为2.72 [1.96~3.48] W/m²,其中,均匀混合温室气体的贡献为3.32 [3.03~3.61] W/m²,气溶胶的贡献为-1.1 [-1.7~-0.4] W/m²。净的气候反馈参数为-1.16 [-1.81~-0.51] W/(m²∙℃),云仍然是气候反馈整体不确定性的最大来源。平衡态气候敏感度（ECS）和瞬态气候响应（TCR）可用于评估全球平均地表气温对强迫的响应,是衡量全球气候响应的有效手段。ECS和TCR的最佳估计分别为3.0 [2.0~5.0]℃和1.8 [1.2~2.4]℃。  相似文献