A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Stable isotopes of precipitation and spring waters reveal an altitude effect in the Anti‐Lebanon Mountains,Syria          下载免费PDF全文

Paul Koeniger  Mathias Toll  Thomas Himmelsbach 《水文研究》2016,30(16):2851-2860

  相似文献   

A novel approach for estimating karst groundwater recharge in mountainous regions and its application in Switzerland          下载免费PDF全文

Arnauld Malard  Michael Sinreich  Pierre‐Yves Jeannin 《水文研究》2016,30(13):2153-2166

A pragmatic and simple approach for estimating the groundwater recharge of karst aquifers in mountainous regions by extrapolation of the hydrological regimes of gauged and well‐documented systems is presented. Specific discharge rates are derived using annual precipitation and spring measurements by taking into account catchment size and elevation, which are assumed to be the dominant factors. Reference sites with high data reliability are used for calibration and regional extrapolation. This is performed with normalized values employing spatial precipitation deviations and correlation with the elevation of the catchment areas. A tiered step procedure provides minimum and maximum normalized gradients for the relationship between recharge quantity and elevation for karst regions. The normalized recharge can therefore be obtained and extrapolated for any location using the spatial precipitation variability to provide an estimate of annual groundwater recharge. The approach was applied to Switzerland (approximately 7500 km² of karst terrain situated between 200 and over 4000 m a.s.l.) using annual precipitation data from meteorological stations for the years 2000 to 2011. Results show that the average recharge rates of different Swiss karst domains range from 20 to 46 L/km²s, which corresponds to an infiltration ratio between 0.6 and 0.9 of total precipitation. Despite uncertainties inherent in the approach, these results provide a benchmark for renewable karst groundwater resources in Switzerland of about 8.4 km³/year. The approach can be applied to any other mountainous karst region, that is, where a clear relationship between elevation, precipitation and recharge can be assumed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Groundwater mixing between different aquifer types in a complex structural setting discerned by elemental and stable isotope geochemistry          下载免费PDF全文

Dorina Murgulet  Marlon Cook  Valeriu Murgulet 《水文研究》2016,30(3):410-423

Karst aquifers are well known for their intricate stratigraphy and geologic structures, which make groundwater characterization challenging because flowpaths and recharge sources are complex and difficult to evaluate. Geochemical data, collected from ten closely spaced production wells constructed in two karst aquifers (Bangor Limestone (Mb) and Tuscumbia Limestone/Fort Payne Chert (Mftp)) in Trussville, north‐central Alabama, illustrate two distinctive groundwater end‐members: (1) higher major ion, dissolved inorganic carbon, conductivity, alkalinity concentrations, heavier δ¹³C ratios (max: −10.2 ± 0.2‰ Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite (PDB)) and lower residence times (mean: 19.5 ± 2 years, n = 2) of groundwater in the Mb aquifer and (2) lower constituent concentrations, lighter δ¹³C ratios (min: −13.4 ± 0.2‰ PDB) and longer residence times of groundwater (mean: 23.6 ± 2 years, n = 4) in the Mftp aquifer. Summer and fall data and the binary mixing model show aquifer inter‐flow mixing along solution fractures and confirms the distinctive groundwater geochemistry of the two aquifers. Lowering of static water levels over the summer (drawdown from 2 to 5.2 m) leads to more reducing groundwater conditions (lower Eh values) and slightly enriched δ¹⁸O and δD ratios during the fall [δ¹⁸O: −4.8 ± 0.1 to −5.4 ± 0.1‰ Vienna Standard Mean Oceanic Water (VSMOW), n = 9; δD: −25.4 ± 1 to −27.4 ± 1‰ VSMOW, n = 9] when compared with summer season samples (δ¹⁸O: −5.1 ± 0.1 to −5.7 ± 0.1‰ VSMOW, n = 11; δD: −25.0 ± 1 to −30.6 ± 1‰ VSMOW, n = 11). GIS analyses confirm the localized origin of recharge to the investigated aquifers. The combination of GIS, field parameters and geochemistry analyses can be successfully used to identify recharge sources, evaluate groundwater flow and transport pathways and to improve understanding of how groundwater withdrawals impact the sustainability and susceptibility to contamination of karst aquifers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydraulic modeling of flood pulses in the Middle Bussento Karst System (MBSKS), UNESCO Cilento Global Geopark,southern Italy          下载免费PDF全文

Vittorio Bovolin  Albina Cuomo  Domenico Guida 《水文研究》2017,31(3):639-653

Karst systems provide water for domestic and industrial uses and for generating hydropower, but they can also create fluvial hazards, such as upstream back‐flooding and downstream karst flash‐flood events. However, these hazards are difficult to foresee due to the complex recharge‐discharge processes as well as the lack of information on the inside of the system, which has often not been completely surveyed by speleologists or explored by boreholes. To overcome these difficulties, hydro‐chemical data from the monitoring system in the Middle Bussento Karst System (MBSKS), one of the first Experimental Karst Systems in southern Italy, were recorded and previously discussed. Based on shared background in flood karst hydraulic modeling, this paper describes the conceptual premises and rationale of a general‐purpose hydraulic model that is suitable both for the MBSKS and for other Mediterranean, multi‐recharge, mature, conduit‐dominated karst systems. To test the reliability of the model, simulations of time–space behavior and response are performed using natural and artificial flood pulses “as tracers”, considering a “pulse” as a significant variation in water quantity and/or quality. The results of the model explain the interactions between allogenic, autogenic, and anthropogenic recharges from differentiated sources and phreatic conduit systems. These results also clarify the overall response of karst springs at typical time scales of flood pulses. Table acronym name  相似文献   

桂林毛村不同植被类型土壤微生物数量与碳酸酐酶活性比较     

黄芬  黄艳梅  杨利超  白冰  曹建华 《地质论评》2016,62(1):94-102

以非岩溶区林地为对比,分析了桂林毛村岩溶区4种不同植被类型土壤微生物数量及碳酸酐酶(CA)活性的季度动态变化规律,发现以下主要结果:1随着植被的正向演替,岩溶区弃耕地、草地、灌丛及林地微生物数量及CA活性逐渐升高,微生物总数从64.07×10~4cfu/g上升到178.23×10~4cfu/g,CA活性从0.77 U/g上升到1.82 U/g,岩溶区林地大于非岩溶区林地。2在岩溶区不同植被类型,微生物组成均表现为细菌最多(平均值95.14%),放线菌次之(平均值2.79%),真菌数量最少(平均值1.75%)。而在非岩溶区表现为细菌最多(平均值90.95%),真菌次之(平均值5.32%),放线菌最少(平均值3.73%)。3微生物数量季节动态整体表现为春季至夏季逐渐上升,至秋季达到最高,冬季下降,微生物总数的增长依赖于细菌的倍数增长,真菌和放线菌影响较小。CA活性整体表现为夏季和冬季低于春季和秋季,秋季达到最大值。4 CA活性与细菌及微生物总数呈极显著的正相关,表明土壤CA主要来源于细菌的分泌。  相似文献   

基于GRNN模型的岩溶地区城市水生态足迹分析与预测   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

杨振华  苏维词  赵卫权  谢砫军  李艳丽 《中国岩溶》2016,35(1):36-42

为揭示岩溶地区城市生态足迹的驱动因子与机制,评估和预测水资源可持续利用程度,根据岩溶地区水文地质特征及其与水生态足迹的相关性,分析了贵阳市2002-2014年水生态足迹的变化特征,并利用GRNN模型对其进行了时间序列预测。结果表明,贵阳市水生态足迹由2002年的12.79万hm2上升至2014年的15.74万hm2,整体呈波动上升趋势,其中,水量生态足迹变化特征主要由工业用水量决定,水质生态足迹变化特征主要由氨氮排放量决定。水生态承载力波动变化明显,且小于水生态足迹需水量,导致水资源可持续利用系数介于0.31~0.63之间。对贵阳市2015-2019年水生态足迹进行GRNN预测,表明水生态足迹呈现先升后降得趋势,水生态承载力变幅在4.315~8.038万hm2之间,但水生态足迹与承载力的缺口大,水资源可持续利用系数偏低。因此,在水生态承载力有限的贵阳市,降低水生态足迹才是实现水资源可持续利用的关键。  相似文献   

采空区输气管道弹性变形分析     

魏威 《矿产与地质》2016,(5):833-836

近年来输气管道工程的大规模建设,其不可避免地要通过一些煤矿采空沉陷区和地质构造复杂区域。煤矿采空沉陷区的地表移动变形必然会使上覆的输气管道发生变形、甚至破坏,因此,分析与预测煤矿采空区地埋输气管道的安全性具有重要意义。本文以西气东输一线为例,依据弹性理论分析计算,当管道下伏分别为土体和岩体时,输气管道破坏时的岩土体垮塌宽度,并统计在垮塌影响范围一定的条件下,岩土体垮塌宽度与管道变形及最小曲率半径之间的规律。结果表明,管道的弯曲变形与垮塌宽度之间呈递增关系。  相似文献   

长兴岛碳酸盐岩裂隙岩溶水特征分析     

陈冶  程微  宋波  宋建伟  程静  孙丽萍 《化工矿产地质》2016,(2):79-84

长兴岛碳酸盐岩区占整个岛的44%,受降雨、岩性、构造等条件的影响,岩溶较发育,地下水资源较丰富,且水质较好,适宜作为饮用水水源。在收集大量基础地质资料,并结合现场调查、钻探、抽水试验成果,分析了从上至下5层岩溶带的发育特征、赋水性规律及补、径、排条件。同时考虑供水水文地质条件,进行了天然资源和开采资源概算,及成井条件、水质的分析评价。  相似文献   

高水压顶管隧道管节修复装置的设计与应用          下载免费PDF全文

常喜平  贺建群  王乐  李贻浩 《探矿工程》2016,43(6):56-59

富春江顶管工程为例,介绍了一种可快速拆卸的用于深埋顶管隧道对管节局部破损进行修复的装置。装置结构简单、紧凑,易于在圆形截面的隧道中进行快速拼装。该装置最高耐水压力0.8 MPa,可对地下水位以下30~80 m顶管隧道中出现沿轴线长＜0.4 m环状破损的管节进行注浆修复。这种设计能够有效解决深埋顶管隧道小面积局部破损、小范围漏水涌砂等问题,为深埋顶管等方法构筑的圆形隧道提供应急修复保障。  相似文献