从安徽气候变化看2003年洪涝和高温的必然性   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

田红  刘勇  何金海 《气象》2004,30(6):24-27

利用近 50年温度和降水资料研究了安徽夏季气候变化特征 ,解释了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝、高温等极端气候事件出现的必然性。研究结果表明 :(1 )近 50年来安徽夏季温度呈下降趋势 ,降水则呈增加趋势 ,两者变化是相协调的。目前夏季温度处于较低的气候基本态 ,降水处于高基本态。 (2 )无论是温度还是降水 ,其变率都在 2 0世纪80年代中后期开始上升 ,目前均处于高气候变率时期。降水的“两高”(高基本态和高气候变率 )结合决定了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝出现的必然性 ;温度的较低基本态决定了“凉夏”背景 ,但由于基本态的回升和变率的加大 ,仍会出现像 2 0 0 3年夏季的若干高温天气。 (3)最大熵谱估计表明 ,安徽夏季降水变化的主周期为 2 5年 ,反映了降水的准两年振荡特征  相似文献   

地球系统科学与成矿学研究   总被引：24，自引：6，他引：24  

翟裕生 《地学前缘》2004,11(1):1-10

在简述地球系统科学的基础上 ,文中提出了由地球系统科学引发的成矿学研究 3个观点 :(1 )成矿系统是一个特色的地质系统 ;(2 )成矿系统与其它系统的关联 ;(3)地质突发事件具有灾害和资源的两重性。针对地球系统科学要求和矿床学学科发展进程 ,提出了 5个亟待加强的研究领域或课题 :(1 )深部过程、浅表环境与成矿系统 ;(2 )重大事件与成矿 ;(3)生命活动与成矿 ;(4 )物理成矿作用和(5 )海洋成矿作用。在结语中 ,作者强调要从地球系统的大背景来研究成矿环境、成矿过程和成矿动力学 ,也即将传统的矿床成因研究提高到地球系统科学的层次 ,为矿床学的发展提供新的广阔的理论基础。  相似文献   

Effects of temperature and humidity upon the transport of sedimentary particles by wind   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Cheryl McKenna Neuman 《Sedimentology》2004,51(1):1-17

Wind tunnel simulations of aeolian transport carried out over a range in mean temperature between 32 °C and ?9 °C suggest that cold airflows support higher mass transport rates (Q) than very warm air. The magnitude of this increase is larger than expected, so that analytical and semi‐empirical models underestimate Q. Extrapolation of the results suggests that, at ?40 °C, as for example in the dry valleys of Antarctica in winter, Q may be as much as 70% higher than for the equivalent wind speed in hot deserts at air temperatures of 40 °C. Temperature‐dependent changes in air density and turbulence contribute to this result. The decreased tension of water adsorbed onto particle surfaces at low temperatures is postulated to reduce interparticle cohesion and, thus, to increase the elasticity of particle impacts on cold beds. Definition of the roles that temperature and humidity play in aeolian transport is relevant to studies of palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and extraterrestrial (or planetary) geology. Investigation of present‐day, cold climate features and of climate change effects also requires knowledge of these fundamental relations.  相似文献   

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005     

U. S. De  Medha Khole  M. M. Dandekar 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(2):487-497

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.  相似文献   

On the Mechanism of the Locking of the El Nio Event Onset Phase to Boreal Spring     

严邦良 《大气科学进展》2005,(5)

1. Introduction The observed facts show that the ENSO cycle has obvious phase-locking and oscillates irregularly (An and Wang, 2001; Kaplan et al., 1998). Based on Zibiak and Cane's (1987) model (hereafter, the Z-C model) and simple, coupled ocean-atmosph…  相似文献   

Small inflation sources producing seismic and infrasonic pulses during the 2000 eruptions of Miyake-jima, Japan     

Tomokazu Kobayashi  Yoshiaki Ida 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2005,240(2):291-301

During the 2000 activity of Miyake-jima volcano, Japan, we detected long period seismic signals with initial pulse widths of 1-2 s, accompanied by infrasonic pulses with almost the same pulse widths. The seismic signals were observed from 13 July 2000, a day before the second summit eruption. The occurrences of the seismic signals were intermittent with a gradual increase in their magnitudes and numbers building toward a significant explosive eruption on 18 August. After the eruption, the seismic and infrasonic events ceased. The results of a waveform inversion show that the initial motions were excited by an isotropic inflation source beneath the south edge of the caldera at a depth of 1.4 km. On the other hand, the sources of the infrasonic pulses were located in the summit caldera area. The times at which the infrasonic pulses were emitted at the surface were delayed by about 3 s from the origin times of the seismic events. It is suggested that small isotropic inflations excited seismic waves in the crust and simultaneously caused acoustic waves that traveled in the conduit and produced infrasonic pulses at the crater bottom. Considering the observed time differences and gas temperatures emitted from the vent, the conduit should have been filled with vapor mixed with SO₂ gas and volcanic ash. The change of the time differences between the seismic and infrasonic signals suggests that the seismic source became shallower within half a day before the August 18 explosive eruption. We interpret the source process as a fragmentation process of magma in which gas bubbles burst and quickly released part of the pressure that had been sustained by the tensional strength of magma.  相似文献   

THE U.S. MILITARY AS GEOGRAPHICAL AGENT: THE CASE OF COLD WAR ALASKA*     

LAUREL J. HUMMEL 《Geographical review》2005,95(1):47-72

ABSTRACT. Alaska was strategically key to the U.S. defense plan during the cold war (1946–1989). As such, it was the scene of an enormous and sustained military investment, the effect of which was amplified by Alaska's undiversified economy, sparse development, small resident population, and marginalized political status at the beginning of the era. The strong military presence affected Alaskan demographics, economic development, and infrastructure and figured prominently in the admission of Alaska to the union in 1959. The high profile and long‐term presence of the U.S. military had such a dramatic affect on the course of Alaska that the result was tantamount to a “militarized landscape.”  相似文献   

Chemical Profiles across a Jurassic Stratiform Manganese Deposit at Katsuyama in the Mino Terrane of Central Japan: Implications for Depositional Environment, Diagenetic Metal Redistribution and Paleoceanography     

Kosei Komuro  Koji Wakita 《Resource Geology》2005,55(4):321-336

Abstract. Inorganic chemical compositions are determined for a series of rocks crossing an Early Jurassic stratiform manganese ore deposit in a chert‐dominant sequence at Katsuyama, in the Mino Terrane of central Japan. The lithology in the vicinity of the manganese ore bed is classified into lower bedded chert, black shale, massive chert, manganese ore and upper bedded chert, in ascending order. The rocks surrounding the manganese deposit are anomalously high in certain elements: Pb (max. 29 ppm), Ni (1140) and Co (336) in the lower bedded chert, Mo (438), As (149), Tl (29) and U (12) in the black shales, V (210) and Cr (87) in the massive chert, and MnO and W (24) in the manganese ore. The aluminum‐normalized profiles reveal a distinct zonation of redox‐sensitive elements: Pb‐Zn, Ni‐Co‐Cu(‐Zn) and U‐Cr in the lower bedded chert, Mo‐As‐Tl in the black shale, V(‐Cr) in the massive chert, and Mn‐Fe‐Ba‐W in the manganese ore, in ascending order. The lower and upper bedded cherts and manganese ore generally exhibit flat rare earth element patterns with positive Ce anomalies, whereas the uppermost part of the lower bedded chert, the black shale and massive chert have flat patterns with weak or nonexistent negative Ce anomalies and weak positive Eu anomalies. The strong enrichment in Ni, Co, W, Tl and As detected in the Katsuyama section is not recognized in other sediments, including those of anoxic deposition origin, but is identified in modern ferromanganese nodules, suggesting that metal enrichment in the Katsuyama section is essentially due to the formation of ferromanganese nodules rather than to deposition in an anoxic environment. The observed elemental zonation is well explained by equilibrium calculations, reflecting early diagenetic formation and associated gradual reduction with depth. The concentration profiles in combination with litho‐ and biostratigraphical features suggest that formation of these bedded manganese deposits was triggered by an influx of warm, saline and oxic water into a stagnant deep ocean floor basin in Panthalassa at the end of the middle Early Jurassic. Paleoceanographic environmental controls thus appear to be important factors in the formation and preservation of this type of stratiform manganese deposit.  相似文献   

Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept          下载免费PDF全文

James O. Knighton  M. Todd Walter 《水文研究》2016,30(21):3788-3803

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Fingerprinting the 8.2 ka event climate response in a coupled climate model     

Ane P. Wiersma  Didier M. Roche  Hans Renssen 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(1):118-127

Using results from coupled climate model simulations of the 8.2 ka climate event that produced a cold period over Greenland in agreement with the reconstructed cooling from ice cores, we investigate the typical pattern of climate anomalies (fingerprint) to provide a framework for the interpretation of global proxy data for the 8.2 ka climate event. For this purpose we developed an analysis method that isolates the forced temperature response and provides information on spatial variations in magnitude, timing and duration that characterise the detectable climate event in proxy archives. Our analysis shows that delays in the temperature response to the freshwater forcing are present, mostly in the order of decades (30 a over central Greenland). The North Atlantic Ocean initially cools in response to the freshwater perturbation, followed in certain parts by a warm response. This delay, occurring more than 200 a after the freshwater pulse, hints at an overshoot in the recovery from the freshwater perturbation. The South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean show a warm response reflecting the bipolar seesaw effect. The duration of the simulated event varies for different areas, and the highest probability of recording the event in proxy archives is in the North Atlantic Ocean area north of 40° N. Our results may facilitate the interpretation of proxy archives recording the 8.2 ka event, as they show that timing and duration cannot be assumed to correspond with the timing and duration of the event as recorded in Greenland ice cores. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献