Implementing quality control on a random number stream to improve a stochastic weather generator     

Charles R. Meyer  Chris S. Renschler  Roel C. Vining 《水文研究》2008,22(8):1069-1079

For decades, stochastic modellers have used computerized random number generators to produce random numeric sequences fitting a specified statistical distribution. Unfortunately, none of the random number generators we tested satisfactorily produced the target distribution. The result is generated distributions whose mean even diverges from the mean used to generate them, regardless of the length of run. Non‐uniform distributions from short sequences of random numbers are a major problem in stochastic climate generation, because truly uniform distributions are required to produce the intended climate parameter distributions. In order to ensure generation of a representative climate with the stochastic weather generator CLIGEN within a 30‐year run, we tested the climate output resulting from various random number generators. The resulting distributions of climate parameters showed significant departures from the target distributions in all cases. We traced this failure back to the uniform random number generators themselves. This paper proposes a quality control approach to select only those numbers that conform to the expected distribution being retained for subsequent use. The approach is based on goodness‐of‐fit analysis applied to the random numbers generated. Normally distributed deviates are further tested with confidence interval tests on their means and standard deviations. The positive effect of the new approach on the climate characteristics generated and the subsequent deterministic process‐based hydrology and soil erosion modelling are illustrated for four climatologically diverse sites. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Observations and model estimates of diurnal water temperature dynamics in mosquito breeding sites in western Kenya     

K. P. Paaijmans  A. F. G. Jacobs  W. Takken  B. G. Heusinkveld  A. K. Githeko  M. Dicke  A. A. M. Holtslag 《水文研究》2008,22(24):4789-4801

Water temperature is an important determinant of the growth and development of malaria mosquito immatures. To gain a better understanding of the daily temperature dynamics of malaria mosquito breeding sites and of the relationships between meteorological variables and water temperature, three clear water pools (diameter × depth: 0·16 × 0·04, 0·32 × 0·16 and 0·96 × 0·32 m) were created in Kenya. Continuous water temperature measurements at various depths were combined with weather data collections from a meteorological station. The water pools were homothermic, but the top water layer differed by up to about 2 °C in temperature, depending on weather conditions. Although the daily mean temperature of all water pools was similar (27·4–28·1 °C), the average recorded difference between the daily minimum and maximum temperature was 14·4 °C in the smallest versus 7·1 °C in the largest water pool. Average water temperature corresponded well with various meteorological variables. The temperature of each water pool was continuously higher than the air temperature. A model was developed that predicts the diurnal water temperature dynamics accurately, based on the estimated energy budget components of these water pools. The air–water interface appeared the most important boundary for energy exchange processes and on average 82–89% of the total energy was gained and lost at this boundary. Besides energy loss to longwave radiation, loss due to evaporation was high; the average estimated daily evaporation ranged from 4·2 mm in the smallest to 3·7 mm in the largest water pool. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of a dam break for an actual river terrain environment     

C. B. Liao  M. S. Wu  S. J. Liang 《水文研究》2007,21(4):447-460

A two‐dimensional (2D) finite‐difference shallow water model based on a second‐order hybrid type of total variation diminishing (TVD) approximate solver with a MUSCL limiter function was developed to model flooding and inundation problems where the evolution of the drying and wetting interface is numerically challenging. Both a minimum positive depth (MPD) scheme and a non‐MPD scheme were employed to handle the advancement of drying and wetting fronts. We used several model problems to verify the model, including a dam break in a slope channel, a dam break flooding over a triangular obstacle, an idealized circular dam‐break, and a tide flow over a mound. Computed results agreed well with the experiment data and other numerical results available. The model was then applied to simulate the dam breaking and flooding of Hsindien Creek, Taiwan, with the detailed river basin topography. Computed flooding scenarios show reasonable flow characteristics. Though the average speed of flooding is 6–7 m s^?1, which corresponds to the subcritical flow condition (Fr < 1), the local maximum speed of flooding is 14·12 m s^?1, which corresponds to the supercritical flow condition (Fr ≈ 1·31). It is necessary to conduct some kind of comparison of the numerical results with measurements/experiments in further studies. Nevertheless, the model exhibits its capability to capture the essential features of dam‐break flows with drying and wetting fronts. It also exhibits the potential to provide the basis for computationally efficient flood routing and warning information. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Flood seasonality‐based regionalization methods: a data‐based comparison     

Ali Sarhadi  Reza Modarres 《水文研究》2011,25(23):3613-3624

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Extreme storms in Malmö, Sweden     

Lars Bengtsson  Stefan Milloti 《水文研究》2010,24(24):3462-3475

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Evolution of scouring process downstream of grade‐control structures under steady and unsteady flows     

Jau‐Yau Lu  Jian‐Hao Hong  Kai‐Po Chang  Tai‐Fang Lu 《水文研究》2013,27(19):2699-2709

For many incised channels, one of the most common strategies is to install some hard structures, such as grade‐control structures (GCSs), in the riverbed to resist further incision. In this study, a series of experiments, including both steady and unsteady flow conditions, were conducted to investigate the scouring process downstream of a GCS. Three distinct phases, including the initial, developing and equilibrium phases, during the evolution of scour holes were identified. In addition, a semi‐empirical method was proposed to predict the equilibrium scour‐hole profile for the scour countermeasure design. In general, the comparisons between the experimental and simulated results are reasonably consistent. As the studies on temporal variation of the scour depth at GCSs caused by floods are limited, the effect of flood hydrograph shapes on the scour downstream of GCSs without upstream sediment supply was also investigated experimentally in this study. Based on the dimensional analysis and the concept of superposition, a methodology is proposed to simulate the time evolution of the maximum scour depth downstream of a GCS for steady flows. Moreover, the proposed scheme predicts reasonably well the temporal variations of the maximum scour depth for unsteady flows with both single and multiple peak. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Relations between load and settlement of circular foundations on or in a dense sand expressed by a function of diameter and depth     

Hiroaki Nagaoka  Masahiro Yamazaki  Naoto Kubota  Takashi Okamoto 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2005,29(6):551-576

When load acts on a circular foundation on or in a dense sand, average contact pressure on the lower surface of the foundation is q and settlement of the foundation is s. Diameter and depth of the foundation are B and D_f. When the sand, B and D_f are given, we can know the relation between q and s/B by, e.g. a loading test, i.e. the relation is determined by B and D_f for the sand. Using the results of numerical analyses, we express a relation between q and s/B up to s=0.1B by functions of a single variable which is a linear combination of B and D_f. Consequently when two foundations have different B's and different D_f's but have the same value of the variable, the relations are the same. Then we examine whether the functions can express the results of eleven tests of model foundations of wide range of B and/or D_f. In all the tests, the relations are expressed with sufficient accuracy. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A local control system for the test masses of the Virgo gravitational wave detector     

《Astroparticle Physics》2004,20(6):617-628

The mirrors of interferometric detectors of gravitational waves (GW) are suspended in order to be isolated from external disturbances. A local control system able to keep them correctly aligned and to damp the angular modes of the suspension is necessary. In this paper we present the solution adopted for Virgo based on a CCD camera sensor and on digital controls. With this solution the mirrors are kept aligned at the level of less than 1 μrad rms, enough to lock the interferometer and start the automatic alignment system.  相似文献   

洛阳市供水前景预测及对策探讨     

王绍先  程孝生 《河南国土资源》1994,(3)

洛阳市地下水资源量丰质优，远期供水前景较为乐观。然而，由地下水开采引起的环境水文地质问题仍属客观存在。本文在供水前景预测的基础上，提出了五项对策，对城市远期供水规划具借鉴意义。  相似文献   

山东沾化凹陷孤岛油田馆上段浅水湖泊沉积   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

王蛟 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2007,37(3):500-505

综合研究钻井、古生物和测井资料,认为孤岛油田新近系馆陶组上段馆1 2砂层组沉积时期发育浅水湖泊而非单一的河流相沉积。浅水湖泊湖盆地形平坦,湖面广阔,水体极浅;湖区受气候影响,湖平面频繁振荡式升降变化;沉积物多表现为氧化、还原环境交替的红灰相间的细粒沉积物;湖泊沉积构造发育,生物富集,水进→水退沉积旋回性明显。通过取心井的观察描述和分析化验,识别出水道砂坝、砂坪、混合坪、泥坪和沼泽5种沉积微相类型,建立了孤岛油田馆1 2砂层组浅水湖泊沉积模式。  相似文献