基于主成分分析和贝叶斯正则化方法的神经网络年最大洪峰流量预测模型探讨     

李红霞  许士国  范垂仁 《水文》2006,26(6):30-32

针时水文预测建模中输入因子过多而导致神经网络结构规模过大,泛化能力差的问题,利用主成分分析和贝叶斯正则化方法对神经网络进行改进,优化网络结构,从而提高泛化能力。以洮儿河流域镇西站年最大洪峰流量预测为例,研究结果表明,改进的神经网络预测方法与传统的神经网络方法相比,泛化能力有显著提高,而且网络的收敛也比较稳定,实际预测中效果良好。  相似文献   

人工神经网络在色彩变换中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

徐艳芳  刘文耀  武兵  黄敏 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2006,31(9):799-802

给出了一种针对数字彩色硬拷贝的输出设备，建立了由CIE色度值到设备控制值色彩变换的神经网络方法。基于蒙版方程的颜色传递机理，由色度密度变量实现色彩变换。结果表明，该色彩变换对各种色调均有较明显的校正作用，且保持了高饱和色的饱和度。  相似文献   

粗糙神经网络在森林火灾预警中的应用     

余亮  边馥苓 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2006,31(8):720-723

利用神经网络和粗糙集处理不确定性问题的优势，提出一种粗糙集结合神经网络进行森林火灾预测模型。通过与传统预测模型相比较，证明了该方法的有效性。  相似文献   

多模式温度集成预报   总被引：19，自引：6，他引：19       下载免费PDF全文

赵声蓉 《应用气象学报》2006,17(1):52-58

基于中国国家气象中心T213模式、德国气象局业务模式和日本气象厅业务模式2 m高温度预报, 利用神经网络方法中的BP网络建立了我国600多个站的温度集成预报系统, 该预报系统的预报时效为72 h, 间隔为3 h。通过对2004年1—5月的预报结果检验, 表明:集成的温度预报结果明显优于3个模式单独的预报结果, 72 h内预报的平均绝对误差在3 ℃以内, 并且不存在明显的系统误差, 预报达到了一定的精度, 可以为预报员提供定时、定点精细的客观温度预报参考。分区的检验结果表明:不同区域预报误差存在差别, 新疆和西藏误差比较大, 而长江流域和华南地区误差很小, 并且不同区域系统误差的情况也不相同。从总体情况看, 预报误差还存在日变化, 一般来讲, 夜间的预报误差小于白天。  相似文献   

Remotely sensed estimation of forest canopy density: A comparison of the performance of four methods     

Chudamani Joshi  Jan De Leeuw  Andrew K. Skidmore  Iris C. van Duren  Henk van Oosten 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2006

In recent years, a number of alternative methods have been proposed to predict forest canopy density from remotely sensed data. To date, however, it remains difficult to decide which method to use, since their relative performance has never been evaluated. In this study the performance of: (1) an artificial neural network, (2) a multiple linear regression, (3) the forest canopy density mapper and (4) a maximum likelihood classification method was compared for prediction of forest canopy density using a Landsat ETM+ image. Comparison of confusion matrices revealed that the regression model performed significantly worse than the three other methods. These results were based on a z-test for comparison of weighted kappa statistics, which is an appropriate statistic for analysis of ranked categories. About 89% of the variance of the observed canopy density was explained by the artificial neural networks, which outperformed the other three methods in this respect. Moreover, the artificial neural networks gave an unbiased prediction, while other methods systematically under or over predicted forest canopy density. The choice of biased method could have a high impact on canopy density inventories.  相似文献   

基于BP神经网络的GPS导航算法     

高为广赵文军  李洪力孙岩峰 《测绘科学与工程》2006,26(2):47-50

GPS导航解算中常用最小二乘算法。随着高动态用户需求精度的不断提高，且由于线性化忽略高次项，初始值精度低以及差分后剩余或放大误差的存在。导航解精度很难满足高动态用户的需求。为此，本文基于BP神经网络的非线性逼近性能。给出了基于BP神经网络的GPS导航算法。实测数据计算结果表明该算法能够真实地反映载体运动轨迹，其导航解的精度和可靠性有明显的提高。  相似文献   

Integration of transfer function model and back propagation neural network for forecasting storm sewer flow in Taipei metropolis     

Chih-Chiang Lu  Chu-Hui Chen  Tian-Chyi J. Yeh  Cheng-Mau Wu  I-Fang Yau 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(1-2):6-22

Typhoons and storms have often brought heavy rainfalls and induced floods that have frequently caused severe damage and loss of life in Taiwan. Our ability to predict sewer discharge and forecast floods in advance during storm seasons plays an important role in flood warning and flood hazard mitigation. In this paper, we develop an integrated model (TFMBPN) for forecasting sewer discharge that combines two traditional models: a transfer function model and a back propagation neural network. We evaluated the integrated model and the two traditional models by applying them to a sewer system of Taipei metropolis during three past typhoon events (NARI, SINLAKU, and NAKR). The performances of the models were evaluated by using predictions of a total of 6 h of sewer flow stages, and six different evaluation indices of the predictions. Finally, an overall performance index was determined to assess the overall performance of each model. Based on these evaluation indices, our analysis shows that TFMBNP yields accurate results that surpass the two traditional models. Thus, TFMBNP appears to be a promising tool for flood forecasting for the Taipei metropolis sewer system. For publication in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Analysis.  相似文献   

ANN技术在岩溶地下水可开采量评价中的应用——以山西晋祠泉域为例     

殷丹  苏小四  李砚阁  冯玉明 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2006,(Z1)

以晋祠泉域为例,分析该泉域水文地质特征。应用神经网络技术(ANN)建立泉域内县代表性的难老泉岩溶地下水位与各种补排项之间定量数学模型,对该泉域地下水可开采量进行了评价。研究结果表明,所建立的岩溶地下水位多因素神经网络模型具有较好的拟合精度,仿真程度较高,所得到的地下水可采资源量评价结果与该地区地下水开发利用实际情况较为一致。同时,还计算了不同降雨条件下地下水的可开采量,使其对地下水的开采规划更具有指导意义。  相似文献   

DOWNSCALING FORECAST OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OVER GUANGXI BASED ON BP NEURAL NETWORK MODEL     

何慧  金龙  覃志年  袁丽军 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2007,13(1):97-100

Variables fields such as enstrophy, meridional-wind and zonal-wind variables are derived from monthly 500 hPa geopotential height anomalous fields. In this work, we select original predictors from monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields and their variables in June of 1958 - 2001, and determine comprehensive predictors by conducting empirical orthogonal function (EOF) respectively with the original predictors. A downscaling forecast model based on the back propagation (BP) neural network is built by use of the comprehensive predictors to predict the monthly precipitation in June over Guangxi with the monthly dynamic extended range forecast products. For comparison, we also build another BP neural network model with the same predictands by using the former comprehensive predictors selected from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields in May to December of 1957 - 2000 and January to April of 1958 - 2001. The two models are tested and results show that the precision of superposition of the downscaling model is better than that of the one based on former comprehensive predictors, but the prediction accuracy of the downscaling model depends on the output of monthly dynamic extended range forecast.  相似文献   

GPS测量在巴郎沟水电站施工控制网中的应用     

胡万兵  何廷贵 《测绘信息与工程》2007,32(3):36-37

介绍了巴郎沟水电站GPS施工控制网的布设、基线处理及平差方法,分析了GPS施工控制网精度及基线粗差,实现了在隐蔽地区较高精度GPS施工测量的应用.  相似文献