关于地震预报科学思路,方法论及难点的思考   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

陈立德 《地震研究》1992,15(2):186-192

中国地震预报的科学思路为整体观指导下的异常群体阶段性追踪预报模式。在方法论方面强调了宏观唯象方法的重要性,认为利用地震学、地球物理、地壳形变和地球化学等资料,采用统计识别的方法来寻找地震前兆、进行三要素预报是解决孕震过程这类复杂系统的较好方法。同时指出,地震成因、震源孕育物理力学过程、前兆成因机制、临震阶段起主宰作用的变量等是地震预报的难关所在。临震阶段潮汐力、气压、降水等这些平时视为干扰因素的变化,可能成为发震的触发调制因素。从而增加了前兆的复杂性,在排除干扰时应特别注意。  相似文献   

Chrysophyte stomatocyst taxonomy — classification of snowflakes?     

Heikki Simola 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1991,6(3):257-260

The utility of classifying chrysophyte stomatocysts by their characteristic honeycomb and ridge patterns is questioned, because a strikingly similar expanding pattern appears on the surface of ionized polymer gels during osmotical swelling as a result of simple physical forces. The rapid accumulation of silicate into a spherical cyst inside a chrysophyte cell appears to be as a physical process sufficiently similar to result in an analogous pattern in microscopic scale. Chrysophyte stomatocysts that possess honeycomb or ridge patterns could be regarded as frozen moments of the pattern evolution during the silicate gel phase. As a consequence, such structures should have little taxonomical value.  相似文献   

1786年康定地震形变特征的初步研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

龙德雄  邓天岗 《地震研究》1990,(1)

本文对鲜水河断裂带南东段,康定断裂地震的形变带进行了分析。认为,地震形变带主要由发育于地形斜坡上的线性坡中槽或垄岗组成。形变带具分段特点,单条长850—1500米,呈右阶“斜列式”展布,中段(极震区)一带为现状型。其中的破裂面具正断兼扭动特点。空间特征上,坡中槽一侧的交替上升变化是依次、轮换出现的,它是地震断层运动屈曲作用(Fault buckling)导致地表变形的反映。这种形变现象与该带北西段(炉霍段)走滑型地震的形变带相比有明显的差异,也表明鲜水河断裂带北西、南东两段的地震破裂方式是不尽相同的,它为同一走滑带不同地段运动特征的差异提供了证据。  相似文献   

弹性波的三维有限元模拟   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

邓玉琼  张之立 《地球物理学报》1990,33(1):44-53

本文讨论了弹性波瞬态传播问题的三维有限元计算方法及当前存在的实际困难.针对要求计算机内存大和计算时间长的问题,采取了改进措施.由于采用了集中质量矩阵和修正的中心差分时间积分显格式相结合的方法,可以使计算机内存和计算时间大为减少;由于采用结点定位法,最适合用于目前发展的并行计算机系统,可使计算速度大大增快;还采用了有效激发震源法,有效激发区是随时间步进的增加而逐步增大,这不仅能节省计算时间,而且使波场的传播过程一目了然,本文计算了由两种介质组成的三维楔形问题,得到若干典型剖面的瞬时波场图及随时间变化的合成地震图.  相似文献   

城乡一体化渐进式开发及发展模式研究--以成都市为例     

张果  任平  何景熙 《云南地理环境研究》2006,18(4):58-61

城乡一体化成为当前研究的热点问题之一。成都市从2003年开始，在全市范围内开展城乡一体化试点，准确把握城乡一体化的发展模式，是顺利推进城乡一体化发展的重要一环。根据成都市城乡一体化发展的特点，采用回归方法预测了城市化发展水平，并借鉴国际城市和国内沿海城市的发展经验，提出成都市城乡一体化应采取的总体思路和发展模式，结合成都市城市化水平预测结果，提出其分阶段、分步骤实施的时间阶段。  相似文献   

松嫩平原西部沼泽湿地景观格局动态变化研究   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7  

王丹丹  王志强  陈铭  张树清 《干旱区地理》2006,29(1):94-100

湿地退化及其所带来的负面影响使人们认识到湿地生态系统生态功能的重要性.因此,作为功能研究基础的景观格局及其动态变化的研究显得尤为重要.在遥感和地理信息系统技术支持下,运用土地利用变化指数和景观格局指数模型,对处于生态脆弱区的松嫩平原西部沼泽湿地景观格局及动态变化进行了定量研究,结果表明:松嫩平原西部沼泽景观格局发生了显著变化.松嫩平原西部现有沼泽湿地面积4 488.13 km2,近50年来减少了62.54%;2000年斑块密度为1954年的1.67倍,且最大斑块面积和最大斑块周长均减小,说明沼泽景观破碎化严重;松嫩平原西部沼泽湿地分布质心发生偏移,近50年,向西北方向偏移了19.4 km,主轴方向顺时针旋转了9.23o,表明了沼泽湿地景观具有破碎化和萎缩的趋势,并且呈现出不平衡性:湿地的萎缩程度偏重于研究区的东南部;得出松嫩平原西部沼泽湿地减少及生态环境恶化主要是由该区生态环境原生脆弱性和人类不合理的开发利用方式导致的.通过景观格局变化的研究为沼泽湿地格局优化和生物保护提供参考.  相似文献   

Microfabrics of calcite ultramylonites as records of coaxial and non-coaxial deformation kinematics: Examples from the Rocher de l'Yret shear zone (Western Alps)     

Ghislain Trullenque  Karsten Kunze  Renee Heilbronner  Holger Stünitz  Stefan M. Schmid 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(1-2):69-97

Microfabrics were analysed in calcite mylonites from the rim of the Pelvoux massif (Western Alps, France). WNW-directed emplacement of the internal Penninic units onto the Dauphinois domain produced intense deformation of an Eocene-age nummulitic limestone under lower anchizone metamorphic conditions (slightly below 300 °C). Two types of microfabrics developed primarily by dislocation creep accompanied by dynamic recrystallisation in the absence of twinning. Coaxial kinematics are inferred for samples exhibiting grain shape fabrics and textures with orthorhombic symmetry. Their texture (crystallographic preferred orientation, CPO) is characterised by two c-axis maxima, symmetrically oriented at 15° from the normal to the macroscopic foliation. Non-coaxial deformation is evident in samples with monoclinic shape fabrics and textures characterised by a single oblique c-axis maximum tilted with the sense of shear by about 15°. From the analysis of suitably oriented slip systems for the main texture components under given kinematics it is inferred that the orthorhombic textures, which developed in coaxial kinematics, favour activity of <10–11> and <02–21> slip along the f and r planes, respectively, with minor contributions of basal-<a> slip. In contrast, the monoclinic textures, which developed during simple shear, are most suited for duplex <a> slip along the basal plane. The transition between the dominating slip systems for the orthorhombic and monoclinic microfabrics is interpreted to be due to the effects of dynamic recrystallisation upon texture development. Since oblique c-axis maxima documented in the literature are most often rotated not with but against the shear sense, calcite textures alone should not be used as unequivocal shear sense indicators, but need to be complemented by microstructural criteria such as shape preferred orientations, grain size estimates and amount of twinning.  相似文献   

Quantitative study of landscape patterns in homogenous carbonate rock distributed regions in Guizhou     

Qiu TAN Shijie WANG Yangbing LI 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):174-175

With the utilization of GIS software, research is conducted on （a） the characteristics of cells, fragmentation, and patch fractal of landscape based on homogenous carbonate rocks in Guizhou; （b） causes of the formation of these characteristics. It has been found that under the influence of lithology, the landscape of the study region as a whole shows consistency, yet embodies distinct diversity inside. The consistency is embodied in the following aspects： （a） the preponderant landscape consists of bushes and small woods; （b） secondary landscape is characteristic of forests and grounds covered with grass; （c） of all the patches making up the study area small patches are in the majority, with positive-skewed distribution of patches-as a result, steep peaks are characteristic of the charts showing the distribution of patches. The factor of scale is not taken into account in the study of patches. The shapes of patches tend to be regular with strong disturbances from human activities, and consequently, the values of fractal dimensions of landscape types tend to get smaller. The fragmentation of patches is more apparent in landscape under influence of human activities than the one without these disturbances. Compared with regions characteristic of homogenous dolomite, the characteristics of homogenous limestone areas are described as follows： （a） low utilization rate of water resource; （b） uneven distribution of diversified landscape; （c） weak resistance against disturbances from human activities; （d） the continuous degradation, ever-increasing fragmentation, intensification of spatial heterogeneity, and the deteriorating stability of landscape.  相似文献   

Porphyroblast rotation during crenulation cleavage development: an example from the aureole of the Mooselookmeguntic pluton, Maine, USA   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. E. JOHNSON  M. E. DUPEE  C. V. GUIDOTTI 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2006,24(1):55-73

In the low‐pressure, high‐temperature metamorphic rocks of western Maine, USA, staurolite porphyroblasts grew at c. 400 Ma, very late during the regional orogenesis. These porphyroblasts, which preserve straight inclusion trails with small thin‐section‐scale variation in pitch, were subsequently involved in the strain and metamorphic aureole of the c. 370 Ma Mooselookmeguntic pluton. The aureole shows a progressive fabric intensity gradient from effectively zero emplacement‐related deformation at the outer edge of the aureole ～2900 m (map distance) from the pluton margin to the development of a pervasive emplacement‐related foliation adjacent to the pluton. The development of this pervasive foliation spanned all stages of crenulation cleavage development, which are preserved at different distances from the pluton. The spread of inclusion‐trail pitches in the staurolite porphyroblasts, as measured in two‐dimensional (2‐D) thin sections, increases nonlinearly from ～16° to 75° with increasing strain in the aureole. These data provide clear evidence for rotation of the staurolite porphyroblasts relative to one another and to the developing crenulation cleavage. The data spread is qualitatively modelled for both pure and simple shear, and both solutions match the data reasonably well. The spread of inclusion‐trail orientations (40–75°) in the moderately to highly strained rocks is similar to the spread reported in several previous studies. We consider it likely that the sample‐scale spread in these previous studies is also the result of porphyroblast rotation relative to one another. However, the average inclusion‐trail orientation for a single sample may, in at least some instances, reflect the original orientation of the overgrown foliation.  相似文献   

PDC钻头切削齿破岩载荷规律的分析     

许爱 《探矿工程》2006,33(7):59-61

对PDC钻头冠部形状及不同的布齿密度和切削齿在不同的磨损状态下对PDC钻头切削齿受力的影响进行了分析；用相邻的3个切削齿之间的关系(不同的切削齿与切削齿之间的径向距离和切削齿之间的高度差)来分析PDC钻头冠部形状和切削齿布齿密度对切削齿受力的影响，以及将切削齿的磨损状态简化成与切削齿在钻头上装配方向垂直的平面来分析切削齿磨损状态对切削齿受力的影响。  相似文献