Simulation of Orissa Super Cyclone (1999) using PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model     

U. C. Mohanty  M. Mandal  S. Raman 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(2):373-390

In this study a non-hydrostatic version of Penn State University (PSU) -- NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model is used to simulate thesuper cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. The model isintegrated up to 123 h for producing 5-day forecast of the storm. Several importantfields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and rainfall are compared with theverification analysis/observation to examine the performance of the model. The modelsimulated track of the cyclone is compared with the best-fit track obtained from IndiaMeteorological Department (IMD) and the track obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The model is found to perform reasonably well in simulating the track and in particular, the intensity of the storm.  相似文献   

Age and significance of core complex formation in a very curved orogen: Evidence from fission track studies in the South Carpathians (Romania)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

B. Fügenschuh  S.M. Schmid 《Tectonophysics》2005,404(1-2):33-53

Twenty-four new zircon and apatite fission track ages from the Getic and Danubian nappes in the South Carpathians are discussed in the light of a compilation of published fission track data. A total of 101 fission track ages indicates that the Getic nappes are generally characterized by Cretaceous zircon and apatite fission track ages, indicating cooling to near-surface temperatures of these units immediately following Late Cretaceous orogeny.The age distribution of the Danubian nappes, presently outcropping in the Danubian window below the Getic nappes, depends on the position with respect to the Cerna-Jiu fault. Eocene and Oligocene zircon and apatite central ages from the part of the Danubian core complex situated southeast of this fault monitor mid-Tertiary tectonic exhumation in the footwall of the Getic detachment, while zircon fission track data from northwest of this fault indicate that slow cooling started during the Latest Cretaceous. The change from extension (Getic detachment) to strike-slip dominated tectonics along the curved Cerna-Jiu fault allowed for further exhumation on the concave side of this strike-slip fault, while exhumation ceased on the convex side. The available fission track data consistently indicate that the change to fast cooling associated with tectonic denudation by core complex formation did not occur before Late Eocene times, i.e. long after the cessation of Late Cretaceous thrusting.Core complex formation in the Danubian window is related to a larger-scale scenario that is characterized by the NNW-directed translation, followed by a 90° clockwise rotation of the Tisza-Dacia “block” due to roll-back of the Carpathian embayment. This led to a complex pattern of strain partitioning within the Tisza-Dacia “block” adjacent to the western tip of the rigid Moesian platform. Our results suggest that the invasion of these southernmost parts of Tisza-Dacia started before the Late Eocene, i.e. significantly before the onset of Miocene-age rollback and associated extension in the Pannonian basin.  相似文献   

新疆阿尔泰造山带构造作用的锆石裂变径迹分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

袁万明  董金泉  保增宽  安银昌 《地球学报》2005,26(Z1):239-243

在新疆阿尔泰造山带所获得的19个锆石裂变径迹年龄变化于155-243Ma之间，明显地分为2组，分别对应于2个构造活动期，早期为155-189Ma，晚期为189-243Ma。这与磷灰石裂变径迹年龄反映的62-100Ma和100-160Ma两个构造期完全一致。早期和晚期构造活动期持续的时间分别为54-60Ma和34-38Ma，而这两个构造期之间的间隔时间，则从早到晚由83-89Ma变为89-93Ma。同时，锆石裂变径迹年龄与距特斯巴汗断裂和巴寨断裂的距离有关，反映这两条断裂带对区域构造演化的控制作用。  相似文献   

Monte-Carlo模拟与经验路径模型预测台风极值风速的对比   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

郭云霞  侯一筠  齐鹏 《海洋学报》2020,42(7):64-77

台风是我国东南沿海区域每年发生的严重自然灾害之一。本文分别采用传统的Monte-Carlo模拟方法以及较为先进的经验路径模拟方法预测中国东南沿海区域台风的极值风速(10 m高度处10 min平均值)，并对两种方法的预测结果进行了对比。本文将东南海岸线向内陆扩展约200 km的区域划分为0.25°×0.25°的网格，以每个网格点作为研究点。首先采用Monte-Carlo模拟方法产生每个研究点1 000年间的虚拟台风事件。然后采用经验路径模型方法构建了西北太平洋1 000年的热带气旋事件集，采用模拟圆方法从中提取对各个研究站点有影响的台风事件。接着采用Yan Meng风场模型计算每个研究点台风的最大风速，构成极值风速序列。最后采用极值分布模型预测每个研究点不同重现期的极值风速，并对两种不同方法预测的结果进行了对比。研究发现在研究区域的内陆侧经验路径方法预测的风速略高于Monte-Carlo模拟方法预测的结果，而在海岸沿线一带经验路径方法预测的结果略低，这主要是由两种方法构造的虚拟台风的中心压强存在差异以及模型本身的不确定性造成的。本文的研究结果可以为防灾减灾系统提供有益的参考。  相似文献   

西太平洋暖池1990s中期的年代际扩张对夏季登陆中国台风的影响     

杨宇星  郑建 《海洋与湖沼》2018,49(1):1-8

应用美国联合预警中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC)的台风最佳路径资料、美国国家海洋大气局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA)的扩展海表面温度资料以及美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)和美国国家大气科学研究中心(National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCAR)的大气环流场资料,研究了20世纪90年代西太平洋暖池(简称暖池)年代际扩张对西北太平洋台风和登陆中国沿岸台风的影响。研究发现,相比于暖池扩张前期(1965—1992),后期(1993—2013)台风生成在西北太平洋中部区域(10°—20°N,135°—145°E)显著减弱,在10°—20°N,145°—160°E区域和南海北部区域则表现出增多的特点。台风移动路径变异特征呈现为移动进入南海和登陆中国东部沿岸的西行和西北行路径减少,登陆日本的转向型路径增多,同时登陆我国海南岛和东南部沿岸的台风增多。进一步探查这种影响的可能原因发现,与暖池扩张密切相关的太平洋年代际变化引起的纬向环流的变异是西北太平洋中部台风生成减少的主要原因;而南海北部台风生成增多则归因于南海区域局地环流特征的变异。同时,南海北部台风生成增多是登陆我国海南岛和东南沿岸台风增多的主要决定因素。  相似文献   

Rainfall–runoff responses on Arctic hillslopes underlain by continuous permafrost,North Slope,Alaska, USA          下载免费PDF全文

Caitlin R. Rushlow  Sarah E. Godsey 《水文研究》2017,31(23):4092-4106

The Arctic hydrologic cycle is intensifying, as evidenced by increased rates of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and riverine discharge. However, the controls on water fluxes from terrestrial to aquatic systems in upland Arctic landscapes are poorly understood. Upland landscapes account for one third of the Arctic land surface and are often drained by zero‐order geomorphic flowpath features called water tracks. Previous work in the region attributed rapid runoff response at larger stream orders to water tracks, but models suggest water tracks are hydrologically disconnected from the surrounding hillslope. To better understand the role of water tracks in upland landscapes, we investigated the surface and subsurface hydrologic responses of 6 water tracks and their hillslope watersheds to natural patterns of rainfall, soil thaw, and drainage. Between storms, both water track discharge and the water table in the hillslope watersheds exhibited diel fluctuations that, when lagged by 5 hr, were temporally correlated with peak evapotranspiration rate. Water track soils remained saturated for more of the summer season than soils in their surrounding hillslope watersheds. When rainfall occurred, the subsurface response was nearly instantaneous, but the water tracks took significantly longer than the hillslopes to respond to rainfall, and longer than the responses previously observed in nearby larger order Arctic streams. There was also evidence for antecedent soil water storage conditions controlling the magnitude of runoff response. Based on these observations, we used a broken stick model to test the hypothesis that runoff production in response to individual storms was primarily controlled by rainfall amount and antecedent water storage conditions near the water track outlet. We found that the relative importance of the two factors varied by site, and that water tracks with similar watershed geometries and at similar landscape positions had similar rainfall–runoff model relationships. Thus, the response of terrestrial water fluxes in the upland Arctic to climate change depends on the non‐linear interactions between rainfall patterns and subsurface water storage capacity on hillslopes. Predicting these interactions across the landscape remains an important challenge.  相似文献   

Geochemical and isotopic characterization of trace fossil infillings: New insights on tracemaker activity after the K/Pg impact event     

《Cretaceous Research》2016

Geochemical and isotopic analyses of the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary deposits were conducted at the Caravaca section (External Subbetic, southeast of Spain) in order to evaluate the recovery of the macrobenthic tracemaker community and the bioturbational disturbance. Samples from the infilling material of several lower Danian dark-colored trace fossils (Chondrites, Planolites, Thalassinoides and Zoophycos) located in the uppermost 8-cm of the light upper Maastrichtian strata, as well as samples from the host sedimentary rock of these trace fossils, were analyzed and compared with data from the lower Danian deposits. The values of element ratios indicative of extraterrestrial contamination (Cr/Al, Co/Al and Ni/Al) are higher in the infilling trace fossil material than in the upper Maastrichtian and lower Danian deposits, which suggests a contribution of the ejecta layer. Regarding the isotope composition, the δ¹³C values are lower in the infilling material than in the Maastrichtian host sedimentary rocks surrounding the traces, while the δ¹⁸O are higher in the infilling material. The geochemical and isotopic compositions of the infilling material evidence the unconsolidated character of the sediment, including the red boundary layer. Softground conditions confirm a relatively rapid recovery by the macrobenthic tracemaker community, starting a few millimeters above the K/Pg boundary layer. The mixture of the infilling material of the trace fossils moreover reveals a significant macrobenthic tracemaker activity affecting K–Pg boundary transition sediments that may have significantly altered original signatures.  相似文献   

Low-temperature constraints on the Alpine thermal evolution of the Western Carpathian basement rock complexes     

《Journal of Structural Geology》2016

The Cretaceous to Palaeogene Alpine exhumation of previously buried Variscan basements is recorded in the southern portion of the Western Carpathians in the Gemeric and Veporic units. The Meso-Cenozoic collisional processes resulted in basement exhumation of the Tatric Unit from Palaeogene to Neogene times. According to zircon and apatite fission track data, the Gemeric Unit, an uppermost thick-skinned thrust sheet, cooled from depth levels of ∼10 up to 2.5 km (temperature interval of ∼250–60 °C) about 88–64 Ma ago, after the collapse of overlying Meliata-Turňa-Silica Mesozoic accretionary prism. The middle and lower thick-skinned thrust sheets, Veporic and Tatric units, cooled from the depths of ∼10 up to 2.5 km ∼110–40 Ma ago. The process was controlled by unroofing of footwall from beneath the Gemeric Unit. About 50–20 Ma ago, the internal zone of Tatric Unit gradually exhumed to depth of <2 km and some parts of the unit appeared at the surface level. However, the external zone of Tatric Unit was buried beneath the Eocene to Lower Miocene sedimentary successions and exhumed to the subsurface level at ∼21–8 Ma ago, as a result of oblique collision of the Western Carpathians with the European Platform.  相似文献   

Taenidium at the lower Barremian El Hoyo dinosaur tracksite (Teruel,Spain): Assessing palaeoenvironmental conditions for the invertebrate community     

《Cretaceous Research》2016

An analysis of lower Barremian invertebrate trace fossils at the El Hoyo dinosaur tracksite (Teruel, Spain) was conducted in order to interpret the macrobenthic tracemaker community and the palaeoenvironmental conditions during bioturbation. Abundant bioturbation structures are characterized by meniscate, cylindrical, straight to sinuous, unbranched epichnia, showing the absence of lining, mantle and longitudinal striations. These structures are included in the ichnogenus Taenidium. Burrow width, distance between menisci, type of their fill, and general shape, allow for identification of the ichnospecies Taenidium serpentinum and T. barretti. Dominance to near exclusiveness of Taenidium in the invertebrate trace fossil assemblage suggests assignation to the Scoyenia ichnofacies. This agrees with the presence of vertebrate tracks. Accordingly, a transitional zone between terrestrial and nonmarine aquatic environments, i.e., floodplain areas adjacent to rivers and affected by low energy conditions, could correspond to the El Hoyo site. The pervasive ichnofabric of Taenidium reveals an opportunistic behaviour of the tracemaker, bioturbating rapidly after deposition; bioturbation took place in moist to wet substrates—softgrounds—in shallow tiers, during favourable yet episodic conditions. The opportunistic strategy might owe to a rapid accumulation of nutrients buried within the sediment during alluvial discharges. After bioturbation, minor erosions during fluvial discharges or subaerial exposure may have caused differences in the preservation of the Taenidium.  相似文献   

Exhumation history of the Peake and Denison Inliers: insights from low-temperature thermochronology     

J. W. Hall  S. Glorie  A. S. Collins  A. Reid  N. Evans  B. McInnes 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2016,63(7):805-820

Multi-method thermochronology applied to the Peake and Denison Inliers (northern South Australia) reveals multiple low-temperature thermal events. Apatite fission track (AFT) data suggest two main time periods of basement cooling and/or reheating into AFT closure temperatures (～60–120°C); at ca 470–440 Ma and ca 340–300 Ma. We interpret the Ordovician pulse of rapid basement cooling as a result of post-orogenic cooling after the Delamerian Orogeny, followed by deformation related to the start of the Alice Springs Orogeny and orocline formation relating to the Benambran Orogeny. This is supported by a titanite U/Pb age of 479 ± 7 Ma. Our thermal history models indicate that subsequent denudation and sedimentary burial during the Devonian brought the basement rocks back to zircon U–Th–Sm/He (ZHe) closure temperatures (～200–150°C). This period was followed by a renewal of rapid cooling during the Carboniferous, likely as the result of the final pulses of the Alice Springs Orogeny, which exhumed the inlier to ambient surface temperatures. This thermal event is supported by the presence of the Mount Margaret erosion surface, which indicates that the inlier was exposed at the surface during the early Permian. During the Late Triassic–Early Jurassic, the inlier was subjected to minor reheating to AFT closure temperatures; however, the exact timing cannot be deduced from our dataset. Cretaceous apatite U–Th–Sm/He (AHe) ages coupled with the presence of contemporaneous coarse-grained terrigenous rocks suggest a temporally thermal perturbation related with shallow burial during this time, before late Cretaceous exhumation cooled the inliers back to ambient surface temperatures.  相似文献