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181.
Long-term prediction of intermediate depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean region based on a time-predictable model 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
B. C. Papazachos 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(3):211-218
Repeat times of strong intermediate depth (60 km h 180 km) earthquakes have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data for six seismogenic sources in the Benioff zone of the southern Aegean area. For four of these sources, at least two interevent times (three mainshocks) are available for each source. By using the repeat times for these four sources, the following relation has been determined: logT
t = 0.20M
min + 0.19M
p +a, whereT
t is the repeat time (in years),M
min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest earthquake considered,M
p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock and a parameter which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.91 was determined for this relation, which indicates that the time predictable model holds to a satisfactory degree for the strong mainshocks of intermediate focal depth in the southern Aegean.By assuming that the ratioT/T
t, whereT is the observed andT
t the calculated repeat time, follows a lognormal distribution, the conditional probabilities for the occurrence of strong (M
s 6.5) and very strong (M
s 7.5) earthquakes during the period 1991–2001 in these four seismogenic sources have been calculated. These probabilities are very high (P > 0.9) for the strong and high (P > 0.5) for the very strong intermediate depth earthquakes which occur in the three sources of the shallower (h < 100 km) part of the Benioff zone where coupling occurs between the front parts of the Mediterranean lithosphere (downgoing) and the Aegean lithosphere. 相似文献
182.
基于辽宁地区主要活动断裂的几何特征和空间展布,对1980年以来辽宁地区ML≥2.0地震的累计频次和1900年以来Ms≥5.0地震的年发生率的空间分布及其与活动断裂构造背景关系进行研究,获得了基于地震学的辽宁省内主要断裂和构造区(带)的活动性与地震危险性的初步评估结果。辽宁地区主要断裂活动性较高的有海城河断裂、金州断裂九寨—盖州北段、朝阳—北票断裂等;辽宁地区未来3年发生Ms≥5.0地震危险性较高的断裂依次有海城河断裂、金州断裂、熊岳—庄河断裂、鸭绿江断裂及赤峰—开原断裂与柳河断裂交汇处等。在判定区域地震危险性和城市地震风险时,除了依据前兆异常的空间分布,还应充分考虑区内主要构造(断裂)的活动性与地震危险性。 相似文献
183.
丰台—野鸡坨断裂为唐山地区主要断裂之一,西侧为鸦鸿桥凹陷,东侧为唐山凸起,断裂两侧第四系厚度之差巨大。本文依据该断层两侧钻孔对其第四纪以来活动性进行初步的探讨。通过对丰台—野鸡坨断裂上下两盘PZK14和PZK20孔磁性地层学研究,并结合钻孔岩石地层,及浅部光释光和14C测年结果,建立第四纪地层格架。结果表明:两孔底部“泥包砾”为新近纪沉积;PZK14孔下更新统底界埋深为387 m,中更新统底界埋深为114 m,上更新统底界埋深为71 m,全新统底界埋深为6 m;PZK20孔下更新统底界埋深为155 m,中更新统底界埋深为73 m,上更新统底界为36 m,无全新世地层。丰台—野鸡坨断裂活动在早更新世时表现为逐渐增强的特点,活动速率由早期的5.4 cm/ka增加到13.9 cm/ka。中更新世断裂活动基本处于停滞状态,活动速率为1.0 cm/ka。晚更新世以后,断裂重新活动,且更加剧烈,活动速率达到了54.5 cm/ka。 相似文献
184.
肯尼亚Anza盆地东南部地处东非裂谷系,发育了巨厚的中—新生界沉积盖层。然而,该区域勘探程度较低,制约了对其构造体系的认识及油气勘探潜力的评价。文章基于研究区的重力异常数据,针对其构造特征的认识进行了数据处理及解释。研究结果表明,受中非剪切带右旋剪切应力的影响,研究区发育规模较大的北西向基底断裂和规模较小的北东向盖层断裂,且北东向断裂切断北西向断裂;基底深度差异大,总体呈"两凹夹一隆"的特征,凹陷区沉积了巨厚的中—新生界盖层;受北西向拉张断裂和沿构造软弱带发育的北东向断裂的控制,研究区划分为东部凹陷、中部凸起、南部隆起和西部凹陷4个构造单元,呈现"东西分带、南北分块"的构造格局。 相似文献
185.
北京云蒙山地区花岗岩穹隆及伸展构造的探讨 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
北京云蒙山花岗岩为一中生代侵入的花岗岩穹隆,花岗岩穹隆的叶理普遍发育,叶理轨迹基本平行于穹隆的外部边界,并显示出从核部到边部逐渐增强,东南侧明显强于西北侧的特点。变形构造研究显示,花岗岩穹隆的边部及围岩中普遍存在不同层次及不同运动方向的伸展构造。东南侧以具河防口-水峪伸展型韧性剪切带为特征,剪切运动标志显示为从NW-SE的正剪切运动,有限应变分析估算其剪切位移量在10km以上,剪切带上部被河防口正 相似文献
186.
A Step Towards Evaluation of the Seismic Response Reduction Factor in Multistorey Reinforced Concrete Frames 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A seismic nonlinear time-history analysis was made for four-, six-, and eight-storey reinforced concrete buildings. These buildings were made as three-dimensional space frame structures with shear walls in both orthogonal directions. They have five bays with 4.8 m spacing each in the horizontal direction, and three bays with 4.2 m spacing each in the transversal direction. The frames were designed according to the Jordanian Seismic Code of practice for Seismic Zones 4, 3, 2, and 1 as proposed for Jordan by several authors. Time-history analysis was made using the El Centro (N-S) earthquake record of May 1940 as an actual earthquake excitation. The response reduction factor (R) that primarily consists of two factors that are the ductility reduction (Rµ) and the overstrength (), is obtained. It has been seen that the seismic zoning has a slight effect on the ductility reduction factor for different buildings, since it ranges from Zone 4 to Zone 1 as 2.37 to 2.52, 1.72 to 1.78, and 1.14 to 1.18 for four-, six-, and eight-storey buildings, respectively. Moreover, it is observed that, for different buildings and different seismic zones, the ductility reduction factor (Rµ) is slightly different from the system ductility factor (µ) especially for higher values of µ (i.e., Rµ µ). The response reduction factor, called overstrength (), was evaluated. The overstrength factor was found to vary with seismic zones (Z) , number of stories, and design gravity loads. However, the dependency on seismic zones was the strongest. The average overstrength of these buildings in Zones 4 and 1 was 2.61 and 6.94, respectively. The overstrength increased as the number of storeys decreased: overstrength of a four-storey building was higher than an eight-storey building by 36% in Zone 4, and 39% in Zone 1. Furthermore, buildings of the three heights had an average overstrength 165.9% higher in Zone 1 than in Zone 4. These observations have a significant implications for the seismic design codes which currently do not take into account the variation of the response reduction factor, R (i.e., ductility reduction factor times overstrength). 相似文献
187.
豫西后造山阶段存在变质核杂岩吗? 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
不少学者用变质核杂岩模式解释豫西造山阶段基底隆起和与之相伴的盆岭构造的构造格局。介一本区基底隆起的形态、机制、时限和地壳剥露层次均没有变质核杂岩特征与基底隆起相伴的断陷人舅地也不同于变质核杂岩模式中的半地堑。 相似文献
188.
洛弗拉等人(1989)把Dodson(1973)建立的单一扩散域模式扩展成矿物扩散域不连续分布的模式,即多重扩散域模式,与之对应具有某一封闭温度范围,因此利用单个K-长石矿物样品可以揭示更长时间段上的冷却过程。对云南哀牢山-红河剪切带的K-长石样品(FA-2-1)进行40Ar/39Ar同位素分析,利用多重扩散域模式,揭示在距今约20~19Ma问该带存在一快速冷却过程,这与西藏南部曲水地区快速抬升的时间是一致的 相似文献
189.
许康生 《地震地磁观测与研究》1992,13(2):15-19
地震泼由多种频率成份组成,在其传播过程中。由于地球介质的滤波作用,随着传播距离的增大。高频成份逐渐被衰减。周期越大的成份传播越远。因此,在地震观测上,不同频带的地震仪用于观测不同震中距范围的地震,使仪器较好地响应,就我国台网而言,短周期仪用于地方震、近震的监测,中长周期仪和长周期仪用于远震,极远震的监测,其中长周期仪偏重于记录极远震。但作者在实际分析工作中注意到,短周期仪的记录应用于远震,极远震的分析,显示出独特的作用,充分挖掘和利用短仪资料,将会更加丰富远震、极远震的震相资料。本文以高台地震台的资料为依据,从震中距和震级角度,与中长仪和长仪作比较,对短仪记录远震、极远震的震相及特征作了统计分析与初步探讨,并对新疆地区“影区”地震S波的记录、日本地区地震_PPcP等震相的出现提出了现象的存在,给出了相应的观测结果,以待步一步研究。 相似文献
190.
We theoretically study the scattering ofP, SV andSH waves by a zonal distribution of cracks, which simulates a fault fracture zone. An investigation is conducted how the geometrical properties of the crack distribution and the frictional characteristics of the crack surface are reflected in the attenuation and dispersion of incident waves, as well as in the amplitudes of the transmitted and reflected waves from the zone. If the crack distribution within the fault zone changes temporally during the preparation process of the expected earthquake, it will be important for earthquake prediction to monitor it, utilizing the scattering-induced wave phenomena.We consider the two-dimensional problem. Aligned cracks with the same length are assumed to be randomly distributed in a zone with a finite width, on which elastic waves are assumed to be incident. The distribution of cracks is assumed to be homogeneous and sparse. The crack surface is assumed to be stress-free, or to undergo viscous friction; the latter case simulates fluid-filled cracks. The opening displacement of the crack is assumed to be negligibly small. The idea of the mean wave formalism is employed in the analysis, and Foldy's approximation is assumed.When the crack surface is stress-free, it is commonly observed for every wave mode (P, SV andSH) that the attenuation coefficientQ
–1 peaks aroundka1, the phase velocity is almost independent ofk in the rangeka<1 and it increases monotonically withk in the rangeka>1, wherek is the intrinsicS wavenumber anda is the half length of the crack. The effect of the friction is to shift the peak ofQ
–1 and the corner of the phase velocity curve to the low wavenumber range. The high wavenumber asymptote ofQ
–1 is proportional tok
–1 independently of model parameters and the wave modes. If the seismological observation thatQ
–1 ofS waves has a peak at around 0.5 Hz in the earth's crust is combined with our results, the upper limit of crack size within the crust is estimated about 4 km. The information regarding the transmitted and reflected waves, such as the high wavenumber limit of the amplitude of the transmitted wave etc., allows estimation of the strength of the friction. 相似文献