新疆地震预报研究     

朱令人 《内陆地震》1993,7(2):90-105

新疆的地震预报是1970年开始的。二十多年来在“边观测、边研究、边预报”、“多路探索、多兵种联合作战”、“走综合预报之路”的方针指导下取得了长足的进展。建设了43个地震台站,投入189套仪器,建成了遍布全疆的地震无线通讯网,开展了历史地震调查和地震烈度区划工作,建立健全了地震会商预报制度,进行了多方面的地震预报研究。实际地震预报统计分析表明,扣除自然发震概率之后,趋势预报的成功率约0.3,短临预报的成功率约0.1。在前兆台网控制范围内取得了一些震例,说明地震确实是有前兆的,但又是非常复杂的。地震预报作为科学难题还有漫长的路要走。作者简要地讨论了地震观测的间接性和地震异常的离散性、难以区别的地震异常和地壳变动异常、建立在复杂现象基础上的地震前兆以及地震的混沌性对地震预报的影响等科学问题。  相似文献   

辽宁地区主要断裂活动性和地震危险性评估     

曹凤娟  贾丽华  李梦莹  王松阳 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2021,51(1):286-295

基于辽宁地区主要活动断裂的几何特征和空间展布，对1980年以来辽宁地区M_L≥2.0地震的累计频次和1900年以来M_s≥5.0地震的年发生率的空间分布及其与活动断裂构造背景关系进行研究，获得了基于地震学的辽宁省内主要断裂和构造区（带）的活动性与地震危险性的初步评估结果。辽宁地区主要断裂活动性较高的有海城河断裂、金州断裂九寨—盖州北段、朝阳—北票断裂等；辽宁地区未来3年发生M_s≥5.0地震危险性较高的断裂依次有海城河断裂、金州断裂、熊岳—庄河断裂、鸭绿江断裂及赤峰—开原断裂与柳河断裂交汇处等。在判定区域地震危险性和城市地震风险时，除了依据前兆异常的空间分布，还应充分考虑区内主要构造（断裂）的活动性与地震危险性。  相似文献   

A Step Towards Evaluation of the Seismic Response Reduction Factor in Multistorey Reinforced Concrete Frames   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Barakat  Samar a.  Husein Malkawi  Abdallah I.  Al-Shatnawi  Anis S. 《Natural Hazards》1997,16(1):65-80

A seismic nonlinear time-history analysis was made for four-, six-, and eight-storey reinforced concrete buildings. These buildings were made as three-dimensional space frame structures with shear walls in both orthogonal directions. They have five bays with 4.8 m spacing each in the horizontal direction, and three bays with 4.2 m spacing each in the transversal direction. The frames were designed according to the Jordanian Seismic Code of practice for Seismic Zones 4, 3, 2, and 1 as proposed for Jordan by several authors. Time-history analysis was made using the El Centro (N-S) earthquake record of May 1940 as an actual earthquake excitation. The response reduction factor (R) that primarily consists of two factors that are the ductility reduction (Rµ) and the overstrength (), is obtained. It has been seen that the seismic zoning has a slight effect on the ductility reduction factor for different buildings, since it ranges from Zone 4 to Zone 1 as 2.37 to 2.52, 1.72 to 1.78, and 1.14 to 1.18 for four-, six-, and eight-storey buildings, respectively. Moreover, it is observed that, for different buildings and different seismic zones, the ductility reduction factor (Rµ) is slightly different from the system ductility factor (µ) especially for higher values of µ (i.e., Rµ µ). The response reduction factor, called overstrength (), was evaluated. The overstrength factor was found to vary with seismic zones (Z) , number of stories, and design gravity loads. However, the dependency on seismic zones was the strongest. The average overstrength of these buildings in Zones 4 and 1 was 2.61 and 6.94, respectively. The overstrength increased as the number of storeys decreased: overstrength of a four-storey building was higher than an eight-storey building by 36% in Zone 4, and 39% in Zone 1. Furthermore, buildings of the three heights had an average overstrength 165.9% higher in Zone 1 than in Zone 4. These observations have a significant implications for the seismic design codes which currently do not take into account the variation of the response reduction factor, R (i.e., ductility reduction factor times overstrength).  相似文献   

地震前兆含义,科学问题与研究途径的研讨   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

张肇诚  王贵宣 《地震》1997,17(4):429-439

地震前兆的研究已经取得了很大的进展,地震前兆的复杂性引起了广泛的关注,对地震预报、有关科学问题和探索途径的研究现状及其前景有各种评价。文章认为由于一些科学问题没有解决,尽管对中缅边境１９９５年７月连７．３级地震作出了成功预报,经验性预报有一定的局限性,文中讨论了广义地震前兆和狭义地震前兆,广义地震前兆包含二类前兆：场兆和源兆;而狭义前兆仅指后者。大陆震例前兆的系统研究证实了广义地震前兆的存在,然而  相似文献   

地震短临综合预报方法的研究     

李文英  平建军 《华北地震科学》1995,13(3):36-43

本文在《中国震例》资料基础上,详细分析了华北地区１７次中强以上地震前的短临异常,得到华北地区中强以上地震短临异常的三个综合特征,在归纳出短临异常综合特征的基础上,提出了两个判定孕震过程、前兆异常由中期向短期过渡的定量的综合标志。据中期异常的追踪分析和短临异常综合分析相结合的原则,定义并计算了综合预报指标Ｓ值,以此值作为是否发生中强以上地震的判据。本文的重点是在分析短临异常综合特征的基础上,结合实用  相似文献   

合肥遥测台网地震速报系统     

刘东旺  黎捷 《地震地磁观测与研究》1995,16(6):27-34

论述了适用于遥测地震台网大震速报的一套计算机处理系统,系统设计以《全国遥测台网观测技术规范》和《近震分析》理论为依据,实现了数据输入,震相选择,数据处理,地震定位,震级计算,结果输出及贮存等多项功能,达到了快速确定地震三要素,提高速报速度和精度之目的,是一个较完善的,实用的速报系统。  相似文献   

Possible creep-related tilt precursors obtained in the Central Apennines (Italy) and in the Southern Caucasus (Georgia)     

F. Bella  P. F. Biagi  M. Caputo  G. Della Monica  A. Ermini  P. V. Manjgaladze  V. Sgrigna  D. O. Zilpimiani 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(2):277-300

Daily averaged tilt component data from two sites of the Central Apennines (Italy) and of the Southern Caucasus (Georgia), respectively, revealed intermediate-term tilts as possible precursors to earthquakes (M=3.0÷4.7) which occurred in the above-mentioned seismic areas within a distance of 50 km from the sites. A good temporal correlation as well as a fair spatial correspondence between these residual tilts (with amplitude and duration of some microradians and months, respectively) and main shocks were pointed out, by removing both secular trends and seasonal thermoelastic effects from the raw tilts. An attempt was made to justify the above-mentioned results, based on the assumption that the observed intermediate-term preseismic tilts are the manifestation of aseismic creep episodes of comparable duration in the fault materials of thrust faults close to the tilt sites. The mechanism refers to a strain field slowly propagating from the preparation focal area to the tilt site, through crustal blocks separated by weak transition zones. This propagation is thought to be the cause of the local aseismic fault slip recorded by the tiltmeters. Previously, both discrete structures and strain propagation effects were revealed in the Central Apennines and are thought also to exist in the Southern Caucasus. As in the past, the rheological properties of fault materials are revealed as viscoelastic ones. In fact, creep equations obtained by applying several viscoelastic models on our data, proved to fit quite well some of the observed tilt precursors, producing viscosity and rigidity values very similar to those reported in literature.Professor Petr Viktorovich Manjgaladze died during the writing of this paper  相似文献   

中国南北带地壳上地幔三维面波速度结构和各向异性   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

陈立华  庄真 《地球物理学报》1992,35(5):574-583

本文用长周期763地震仪面波群速度资料反演了中国南北带及邻区的三维速度结构.其中采集238条瑞利波和358条勒夫波混合频散曲线,使用均等显示滤波方法,并以4°×4°为一格将我国境内分为147格.用随机逆反演方法得到了研究区16格的纯路径频散.面波速度结构及演结果表明:1.莫霍界面深度一般在40-50km之间,最深达65km.总趋势是从东到西加深,且在南北带西侧南北两端向中部明显加深,东侧变化小.2.地幔顶部普遍出现很厚的低速层,上界面一般埋深60-80km.上地幔顶盖厚度一般为20-60km,速度为4.30-4.50km/s.3.研究区普遍存在各向异性,而且勒夫波和瑞利波速度的差值(V_SV-V_SH)的绝对值随深度有增大的特点,在南北带南部和西北部V_SV-V_SH各向异性现象更为明显.  相似文献   

关于地震预报科学思路,方法论及难点的思考   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

陈立德 《地震研究》1992,15(2):186-192

中国地震预报的科学思路为整体观指导下的异常群体阶段性追踪预报模式。在方法论方面强调了宏观唯象方法的重要性,认为利用地震学、地球物理、地壳形变和地球化学等资料,采用统计识别的方法来寻找地震前兆、进行三要素预报是解决孕震过程这类复杂系统的较好方法。同时指出,地震成因、震源孕育物理力学过程、前兆成因机制、临震阶段起主宰作用的变量等是地震预报的难关所在。临震阶段潮汐力、气压、降水等这些平时视为干扰因素的变化,可能成为发震的触发调制因素。从而增加了前兆的复杂性,在排除干扰时应特别注意。  相似文献   

“煤特征指数”与矿井瓦斯危险类型的关系     

张世平 《煤田地质与勘探》1992,20(6):36-39

矿井瓦斯危险程度与煤层中瓦斯赋存状况及其泄出方式有关,并取决于多种地质条件和采掘工艺。其中,煤特征条件特别重要。本文分析了湖南省的5种矿井瓦斯危险类型以及相应的煤特征条件,提出了“煤特征指数(I_c)”这一概念。I_c是一项评价矿井瓦斯危险程度的综合指标。研究表明,矿井瓦斯危险愈严重,则其I_c值愈高。应用该项成果预测了16对矿井的瓦斯危险类型,取得了满意的效果。  相似文献