Statistical identification of orographic effects in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall          下载免费PDF全文

Pierluigi Furcolo  Anna Pelosi  Fabio Rossi 《水文研究》2016,30(9):1342-1353

Regional models of extreme rainfall must address the spatial variability induced by orographic obstacles. However, the proper detection of orographic effects often depends on the availability of a well‐designed rain gauge network. The aim of this study is to investigate a new method for identifying and characterizing the effects of orography on the spatial structure of extreme rainfall at the regional scale, including where rainfall data are lacking or fail to describe rainfall features thoroughly. We analyse the annual maxima of daily rainfall data in the Campania region, an orographically complex region in Southern Italy, and introduce a statistical procedure to identify spatial outliers in a low order statistic (namely the mean). The locations of these outliers are then compared with a pattern of orographic objects that has been a priori identified through the application of an automatic geomorphological procedure. The results show a direct and clear link between a particular set of orographic objects and a local increase in the spatial variability of extreme rainfall. This analysis allowed us to objectively identify areas where orography produces enhanced variability in extreme rainfall. It has direct implications for rain gauge network design criteria and has led to promising developments in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept          下载免费PDF全文

James O. Knighton  M. Todd Walter 《水文研究》2016,30(21):3788-3803

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The use of the exponent K(q) function to delimit homogeneous regions in regional frequency analysis of extreme annual daily rainfall          下载免费PDF全文

A. P. García‐Marín  J. Estévez  C. Sangüesa‐Pool  R. Pizarro‐Tapia  J. L. Ayuso‐Muñoz  F. J. Jimenez‐Hornero 《水文研究》2015,29(1):139-151

The regional frequency analysis of extreme annual rainfall data is a useful methodology in hydrology to obtain certain quantile values when no long data series are available. The most crucial step in the analysis is the grouping of sites into homogeneous regions. This work presents a new grouping criterion based on some multifractal properties of rainfall data. For this purpose, a regional frequency analysis of extreme annual rainfall data from the Maule Region (Chile) has been performed. Daily rainfall data series of 53 available stations have been studied, and their empirical moments scaling exponent functions K(q) have been obtained. Two characteristics parameters of the K(q) functions (γ_max and K(0)) have been used to group the stations into three homogeneous regions. Only five sites have not been possible to include into any homogenous regions, being the local frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall the most appropriate method to be used at these locations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Three dimensional numerical simulation of residential building on shrink–swell soils in response to climatic conditions          下载免费PDF全文

Xiong Zhang  Jean‐Louis Briaud 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2015,39(13):1369-1409

Shrink–swell soils can cause distresses in buildings, and every year, the economic loss associated with this problem is huge. This paper presents a comprehensive system for simulating the soil–foundation–building system and its response to daily weather conditions. Weather data include rainfall, solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, all of which are readily available from a local weather station or the Internet. These data are used to determine simulation flux boundary conditions. Different methods are proposed to simulate different boundary conditions: bare soil, trees, and vegetation. A coupled hydro‐mechanical stress analysis is used to simulate the volume change of shrink–swell soils due to both mechanical stress and water content variations. Coupled hydro‐mechanical stress‐jointed elements are used to simulate the interaction between the soil and the slab, and general shell elements are used to simulate structural behavior. All the models are combined into one finite element program to predict the entire system's behavior. This paper first described the theory for the simulations. A site in Arlington, Texas, is then selected to demonstrate the application of the proposed system. Simulation results are shown, and a comparison between measured and predicted movements for four footings in Arlington, Texas, over a 2‐year period is presented. Finally, a three‐dimensional simulation is made for a virtual residential building on shrink–swell soils to identify the influence of various factors. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan          下载免费PDF全文

Meng‐Jung Tsai  Robert J. Abrahart  Nick J. Mount  Fi‐John Chang 《水文研究》2014,28(3):1055-1070

Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A new magnitude category disaggregation approach for temporal high‐resolution rainfall intensities          下载免费PDF全文

Muhammad Rehan Anis  Michael Rode 《水文研究》2015,29(6):1119-1128

Simulation of quick runoff components such as surface runoff and associated soil erosion requires temporal high‐resolution rainfall intensities. However, these data are often not available because such measurements are costly and time consuming. Current rainfall disaggregation methods have shortcomings, especially in generating the distribution of storm events. The objectives of this study were to improve point rainfall disaggregation using a new magnitude category rainfall disaggregation approach. The procedure is introduced using a coupled disaggregation approach (Hyetos and cascade) for multisite rainfall disaggregation. The new procedure was tested with ten long‐term precipitation data sets of central Germany using summer and winter precipitation to determine seasonal variability. Results showed that dividing the rainfall amount into four daily rainfall magnitude categories (1–10, 11–25, 26–50, >50 mm) improves the simulation of high rainfall intensity (convective rainfall). The Hyetos model category approach (Hyetos_Cat) with seasonal variation performs representative to observed hourly rainfall compared with without categories on each month. The mean absolute percentage accuracy of standard deviation for hourly rainfall is 89.7% in winter and 95.6% in summer. The proposed magnitude category method applied with the coupled Hyetos_Cat–cascade approach reproduces successfully the statistical behaviour of local 10‐min rainfall intensities in terms of intermittency as well as variability. The root mean square error performance statistics for disaggregated 10‐min rainfall depth ranges from 0.20 to 2.38 mm for summer and from 0.12 to 2.82 mm for the winter season in all categories. The coupled stochastic approach preserves the statistical self‐similarity and intermittency at each magnitude category with a relatively low computational burden. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Severe soil erosion during a 3‐day exceptional rainfall event: combining modelling and field data for a fallow cereal field          下载免费PDF全文

Manuel López‐Vicente  Laura Quijano  Leticia Gaspar  Leticia Palazón  Ana Navas 《水文研究》2015,29(10):2358-2372

Exceptional rainfall events cause significant losses of soil, although few studies have addressed the validation of model predictions at field scale during severe erosive episodes. In this study, we evaluate the predictive ability of the enhanced Soil Erosion and Redistribution Tool (SERT‐2014) model for mapping and quantifying soil erosion during the exceptional rainfall event (~235 mm) that affected the Central Spanish Pyrenees in October 2012. The capacity of the simulation model is evaluated in a fallow cereal field (1.9 ha) at a high spatial scale (1 × 1 m). Validation was performed with field‐quantified rates of soil loss in the rills and ephemeral gullies and also with a detailed map of soil redistribution. The SERT‐2014 model was run for the six rainfall sub‐events that made up the exceptional event, simulating the different hydrological responses of soils with maximum runoff depths ranging between 40 and 1017 mm. Predicted average and maximum soil erosion was 11 and 117 Mg ha^?1 event^?1, respectively. Total soil loss and sediment yield to the La Reina gully amounted to 16.3 and 9.0 Mg event^?1. These rates are in agreement with field estimations of soil loss of 20.0 Mg event^?1. Most soil loss (86%) occurred during the first sub‐event. Although soil accumulation was overestimated in the first sub‐event because of the large amount of detached soil, the enhanced SERT‐2014 model successfully predicted the different spatial patterns and values of soil redistribution for each sub‐event. Further research should focus on stream transport capacity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A methodology for regionalizing 3‐D effective porosity at watershed scale in crystalline aquifers          下载免费PDF全文

Benoît Dewandel  Yvan Caballero  Jérôme Perrin  Alexandre Boisson  Fabrice Dazin  Sylvain Ferrant  Subash Chandra  Jean‐Christophe Maréchal 《水文研究》2017,31(12):2277-2295

An innovative approach for regionalizing the 3‐D effective porosity field is presented and applied to two large, overexploited, and deeply weathered crystalline aquifers located in southern India. The method derives from earlier work on regionalizing a 2‐D effective porosity field in that part of an aquifer where the water table fluctuates, which is now extended over the entire aquifer using a 3‐D approach. A method based on geological and geophysical surveys has also been developed for mapping the weathering profile layers (saprolite and fractured layers). The method for regionalizing 3‐D effective porosity combines water table fluctuation and groundwater budget techniques at various cell sizes with the use of satellite‐based data (for groundwater abstraction), the structure of the weathering profile, and geostatistical techniques. The approach is presented in detail for the Kudaliar watershed (983 km²) and tested on the 730 km² Anantapur watershed. At watershed scale, the effective porosity of the aquifer ranges from 0.5% to 2% in Kudaliar and between 0.3% and 1% in Anantapur, which agrees with earlier works. Results show that (a) depending on the geology and on the structure of the weathering profile, the vertical distribution of effective porosity can be very different and that the fractured layers in crystalline aquifers are not necessarily characterized by a rapid decrease in effective porosity and (b) that the lateral variations in effective porosity can be larger than the vertical ones. These variations suggest that within a same weathering profile, the density of open fractures and/or degree of weathering in the fractured zone may significantly vary from a place to another. The proposed method provides information on the spatial distribution of effective porosity that is of prime interest in terms of flux and contaminant transport in crystalline aquifers. Implications for mapping groundwater storage and scarcity are also discussed, which should help in improving groundwater resource management strategies.  相似文献   

The effective stress concept and the evaluation of changes in pore air pressure under jacketed isotropic compression tests for dry sand based on the 2‐phase porous theory          下载免费PDF全文

Sayuri Kimoto  Fusao Oka  Yasuhiro Morimoto 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(18):1894-1907

The effective stress concept for solid‐fluid 2‐phase media was revisited in this work. In particular, the effects of the compressibility of both the pore fluid and the soil particles were studied under 3 different conditions, i.e., undrained, drained, and unjacketed conditions based on a Biot‐type theory for 2‐phase porous media. It was confirmed that Terzaghi effective stress holds at the moment when soil grains are assumed to be incompressible and when the compressibility of the pore fluid is small enough compared to that of the soil skeleton. Then, isotropic compression tests for dry sand under undrained conditions were conducted within the triaxial apparatus in which the changes in the pore air pressure could be measured. The ratio of the increment in the cell pressure to the increment in the pore air pressure, m, corresponds to the inverse of the B value by Bishop and was obtained during the step loading of the cell pressure. In addition, the m values were evaluated by comparing them with theoretically obtained values based on the solid‐fluid 2‐phase mixture theory. The experimental m values were close to the theoretical values, as they were in the range of approximately 40 to 185, depending on the cell pressure. Finally, it was found that the soil material with a highly compressible pore fluid, such as air, must be analyzed with the multi‐phase porous mixture theory. However, Terzaghi effective stress is practically applicable when the compressibilities of both the soil particles and the pore fluid are small enough compared to that of the soil skeleton.  相似文献   

A long‐term study of stable isotopes as tracers of processes governing water flow and quality in a lowland river basin: the upper Thames,UK          下载免费PDF全文

W. George Darling  Michael J. Bowes 《水文研究》2016,30(13):2178-2195

A long‐term study of O, H and C stable isotopes has been undertaken on river waters across the 7000‐km² upper Thames lowland river basin in the southern UK. During the period, flow conditions ranged from drought to flood. A 10‐year monthly record (2003–2012) of the main River Thames showed a maximum variation of 3‰ (δ¹⁸O) and 20‰ (δ²H), although interannual average values varied little around a mean of –6.5‰ (δ¹⁸O) and –44‰ (δ²H). A δ²H/δ¹⁸O slope of 5.3 suggested a degree of evaporative enrichment, consistent with derivation from local rainfall with a weighted mean of –7.2‰ (δ¹⁸O) and –48‰ (δ²H) for the period. A tendency towards isotopic depletion of the river with increasing flow rate was noted, but at very high flows (>100 m³/s), a reversion to the mean was interpreted as the displacement of bank storage by rising groundwater levels (corroborated by measurements of specific electrical conductivity). A shorter quarterly study (October 2011–April 2013) of isotope variations in 15 tributaries with varying geology revealed different responses to evaporation, with a well‐correlated inverse relationship between Δ¹⁸O and baseflow index for most of the rivers. A comparison with aquifer waters in the basin showed that even at low flow, rivers rarely consist solely of isotopically unmodified groundwater. Long‐term monitoring (2003–2007) of carbon stable isotopes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the Thames revealed a complex interplay between respiration, photosynthesis and evasion, but with a mean interannual δ¹³C‐DIC value of –14.8 ± 0.5‰, exchange with atmospheric carbon could be ruled out. Quarterly monitoring of the tributaries (October 2011–April 2013) indicated that in addition to the aforementioned factors, river flow variations and catchment characteristics were likely to affect δ¹³C‐DIC. Comparison with basin groundwaters of different alkalinity and δ¹³C‐DIC values showed that the origin of river baseflow is usually obscured. The findings show that long‐term monitoring of environmental tracers can help to improve the understanding of how lowland river catchments function. Copyright © NERC 2015. Hydrological Processes © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献