新疆地震预报研究     

朱令人 《内陆地震》1993,7(2):90-105

新疆的地震预报是1970年开始的。二十多年来在“边观测、边研究、边预报”、“多路探索、多兵种联合作战”、“走综合预报之路”的方针指导下取得了长足的进展。建设了43个地震台站,投入189套仪器,建成了遍布全疆的地震无线通讯网,开展了历史地震调查和地震烈度区划工作,建立健全了地震会商预报制度,进行了多方面的地震预报研究。实际地震预报统计分析表明,扣除自然发震概率之后,趋势预报的成功率约0.3,短临预报的成功率约0.1。在前兆台网控制范围内取得了一些震例,说明地震确实是有前兆的,但又是非常复杂的。地震预报作为科学难题还有漫长的路要走。作者简要地讨论了地震观测的间接性和地震异常的离散性、难以区别的地震异常和地壳变动异常、建立在复杂现象基础上的地震前兆以及地震的混沌性对地震预报的影响等科学问题。  相似文献   

Energy efficiency evaluation,technology gap ratio,and determinants of energy productivity change in developed and developing G20 economies: DEA super-SBM and MLI approaches     

《Gondwana Research》2024

This study employed Slack-based measure (SBM), Meta-frontier analysis, and Malmquist–Luenberger index (MLI) approaches to measure energy efficiency (EE), production technology heterogeneity, and energy productivity variation and its main determinants in developed and developing G20 countries for the period 1995–2020. The study's findings are: (i) Average EE for G20 countries is 0.8577, but still has an improvement potential of 14.23 percent. (ii) Developed countries have a higher average EE than developing (0.8927 > 0.8290). Results further revealed that energy efficiency scores in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, France, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the US, the UK, and Korea are>1. (iii) Technology gap ratio (TGR) value in developed countries is higher than in developing (0.9869 > 0.6801), indicating that developed countries have advanced energy technologies superiority. The average MLI is less than one, showing a decline in energy productivity mainly due to a decline in technical efficiency, as EC < TC. (iv) Developed G20 countries get 0.64 percent aggregate growth in energy productivity as their MLI score is 1.0064, mainly due to technological growth (TC = 1.0161). Developing G20 countries, on the other hand, witnessed a decline in their energy productivity during 1995–2020, as MLI = 0.9925 > 1, designating that, on average, there is a 0.75 % decline in MLI.  相似文献   

On　the　physical　model　of　earthquake　precursor　fields　and　the　mechanism　of　precursors＇timespace　distribution──origin　and　evidences　of　the　strong　body　earthquake──generating　model     

梅世蓉 《地震学报(英文版)》1995,(3)

Ｏｎｔｈｅｐｈｙｓｉｃａｌｍｏｄｅｌｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｐｒｅｃｕｒｓｏｒｆｉｅｌｄｓａｎｄｔｈｅｍｅｃｈａｎｉｓｍｏｆｐｒｅｃｕｒｓｏｒｓ＇ｔｉｍｅｓｐａｃｅｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎ──ｏｒｉｇｉｎａｎｄｅｖｉｄｅｎｃｅｓｏｆ　ｔｈｅｓｔｒｏｎ...  相似文献   

中国三个大地震的震源参数及讨论   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

卓钰如 Kanam.  H 《地球物理学报》1990,33(4):489-496

大地震的震源机制及地震矩、应力降等参数,不(又对认识地震的破裂过程,而且对预报强地面运动都是非常重要的。一些文章对板内地震应力降的特点、地震矩与高频源谱的关系及区域特征的讨论,使我们可直接由长周期体波或面波得出的地震矩M₀估计出不同地区中大地震的高频源谱,以供强地面运动预报参考。 由于对发生在中国板内的1976年11月6日盐源地震（M_s=6.5）和1976年11月15日宁河地震（M_s=6.3）的震源参数还没有详尽的报道;另外,对1973年7月14日  相似文献   

Large eddy simulation of hydrocyclone—prediction of air-core diameter and shape     

M. Narasimha  Mathew Brennan  P.N. Holtham 《International Journal of Mineral Processing》2006

Hydrocyclones are widely used in the mining and chemical industries. An attempt has been made in this study, to develop a CFD (computational fluid dynamics) model, which is capable of predicting the flow patterns inside the hydrocyclone, including accurate prediction of flow split as well as the size of the air-core. The flow velocities and air-core diameters are predicted by DRSM (differential Reynolds stress model) and LES (large eddy simulations) models were compared to experimental results. The predicted water splits and air-core diameter with LES and RSM turbulence models along with VOF (volume of fluid) model for the air phase, through the outlets for various inlet pressures were also analyzed. The LES turbulence model led to an improved turbulence field prediction and thereby to more accurate prediction of pressure and velocity fields. This improvement was distinctive for the axial profile of pressure, indicating that air-core development is principally a transport effect rather than a pressure effect.  相似文献   

Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Huai-zhong Yu  Zheng-kang Shen  Yong-ge Wan  Qing-yong Zhu  Xiang-chu Yin   《Tectonophysics》2006,428(1-4):87-94

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.  相似文献   

Variability in Early Amazonian Tharsis stress state based on wrinkle ridges and strike-slip faulting     

Chris H. Okubo  Richard A. Schultz   《Journal of Structural Geology》2006,28(12):2169

We present evidence for a decrease in the magnitude of Tharsis-circumferential compressive stress during the Late Hesperian to the Middle Amazonian based on chronologic changes in the predominant style of faulting in southern Amazonis Planitia. Using high-resolution MOLA topography, we identify a population of strike-slip faults that exhibit Middle Amazonian-aged displacements of regional chrono-stratigraphic units. These strike-slip faults are adjacent to an older population of previously documented Late Hesperian-aged thrust faults (wrinkle ridges). Along-strike orientations of these thrust and strike-slip faults reveal the Tharsis-radial stress to be the area's most compressive remote principal stress and that this stress orientation and magnitude persisted throughout the Late Hesperian to the Middle Amazonian. We show that the change in the predominant style of faulting from thrust faulting to strike-slip faulting during this time requires a decrease of the Tharsis-circumferential compressive stress to a magnitude less than lithostatic load, with negligible change in stress orientation.  相似文献   

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»     

V.G. Kossobokov   《Tectonophysics》2006,413(1-2):25

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.  相似文献   

Seismic activity associated with the subducting motion of the Philippine Sea plate beneath the Kanto district, Japan   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Sadaki Hori 《Tectonophysics》2006,417(1-2):85

The Pacific plate and the Philippine Sea plate overlap and subduct underneath the Kanto region, central Japan, causing complex seismic activities in the upper mantle. In this research, we used a map selection tool with a graphic display to create a data set for earthquakes caused by the subducting motion of the Philippine Sea plate that are easily determined. As a result, we determined that there are at least four earthquake groups present in the upper mantle above the Pacific plate. Major seismic activity (Group 1) has been observed throughout the Kanto region and is considered to originate in the uppermost part of mantle in the subducted Philippine Sea plate, judging from the formation of the focal region and comparison with the 3D structure of seismic velocity. The focal mechanism of these earthquakes is characterized by the down-dip compression. A second earthquake layer characterized by down-dip extension (Group 2), below the earthquakes in this group, is also noted. The focal region for those earthquakes is considered to be located at the lower part of the slab mantle, and the Pacific plate located directly below is considered to influence the activity. Earthquakes located at the shallowest part (Group 3) form a few clusters distributed directly above the Group 1 focal region. Judging from the characteristics of later phases in these earthquakes and comparing against the 3D structure of seismic velocity, the focal regions for the earthquakes are considered to be located near the upper surface of the slab. Another earthquake group (Group 4) originates further below Group 2; it is difficult to consider these earthquakes within a single slab. The seismic activities representing the upper area of the Philippine Sea plate are Group 3. This paper proposes a slab geometry model that is substantially different from conventional models by strictly differentiating the groups.  相似文献   

我国地质找矿取心（样）钻探设备现状及提高效能的分析研究          下载免费PDF全文

张永勤 《探矿工程》2006,33(8):45-50

概述了我国地质找矿钻探市场现状及前景，分析研究了地质取样钻探传统的立轴钻机及全液压动力头钻机的优缺点及综合效能，针对国家提出加强地质工作的形势及中国的实际状况，提出了完善和改进我国现有钻探设备、提高我国地质找矿取样钻探效率、降低能耗及成本的观点及建议。  相似文献