我国劳动力市场动态均衡分析与实证研究     

陈晓卫 《成都信息工程学院学报》2006,21(5):775-778

运用蛛网模型对劳动力市场进行动态均衡分析，给出劳动力市场均衡的条件及影响因素，利用中国劳动力市场的有关数据对其进行实证，采用时间序列分析方法对中国未来几年的劳动力市场均衡状态进行预测，并提出改善我国劳动力市场均衡状态的思路。  相似文献   

Lunar and terrestrial tidal effects on the Moon's rotational motion     

E. Bois  A. Journet 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,57(1-2):295-305

An accurate model of the rotation of the Moon, constructed by numerical integration, has been presented in a previous paper. All direct perturbations capable of producing at least 10^–4 seconds of arc on the Moon's rotational motion have been included, and the physical librations resulting from planetary effects and Earth-Moon figure-figure interactions have been presented. The present study deals with the Moon's physical librations resulting from the non-rigidities of the Moon and the Earth. The effects of the Moon's elasticity and of a lunar phase lag are analyzed. Physical librations due to lunar tides and those due to terrestrial tides are presented and described.  相似文献   

Observations and modelling of the travel time delay and leading negative phase of the 16 September 2015 Illapel,Chile tsunami     

Peitao Wang  Zhiyuan Ren  Lining Sun  Jingming Hou  Zongchen Wang  Ye Yuan  Fujiang Yu 《海洋学报(英文版)》2021,40(11):11-30

The systematic discrepancies in both tsunami arrival time and leading negative phase (LNP) were identified for the recent transoceanic tsunami on 16 September 2015 in Illapel, Chile by examining the wave characteristics from the tsunami records at 21 Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) sites and 29 coastal tide gauge stations. The results revealed systematic travel time delay of as much as 22 min (approximately 1.7％ of the total travel time) relative to the simulated long waves from the 2015 Chilean tsunami. The delay discrepancy was found to increase with travel time. It was difficult to identify the LNP from the near-shore observation system due to the strong background noise, but the initial negative phase feature became more obvious as the tsunami propagated away from the source area in the deep ocean. We determined that the LNP for the Chilean tsunami had an average duration of 33 min, which was close to the dominant period of the tsunami source. Most of the amplitude ratios to the first elevation phase were approximately 40％, with the largest equivalent to the first positive phase amplitude. We performed numerical analyses by applying the corrected long wave model, which accounted for the effects of seawater density stratification due to compressibility, self-attraction and loading (SAL) of the earth, and wave dispersion compared with observed tsunami waveforms. We attempted to accurately calculate the arrival time and LNP, and to understand how much of a role the physical mechanism played in the discrepancies for the moderate transoceanic tsunami event. The mainly focus of the study is to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of each secondary physical effect to the systematic discrepancies using the corrected shallow water model. Taking all of these effects into consideration, our results demonstrated good agreement between the observed and simulated waveforms. We can conclude that the corrected shallow water model can reduce the tsunami propagation speed and reproduce the LNP, which is observed for tsunamis that have propagated over long distances frequently. The travel time delay between the observed and corrected simulated waveforms is reduced to <8 min and the amplitude discrepancy between them was also markedly diminished. The incorporated effects amounted to approximately 78％ of the travel time delay correction, with seawater density stratification, SAL, and Boussinesq dispersion contributing approximately 39％, 21％, and 18％, respectively. The simulated results showed that the elastic loading and Boussinesq dispersion not only affected travel time but also changed the simulated waveforms for this event. In contrast, the seawater stratification only reduced the tsunami speed, whereas the earth's elasticity loading was responsible for LNP due to the depression of the seafloor surrounding additional tsunami loading at far-field stations. This study revealed that the traditional shallow water model has inherent defects in estimating tsunami arrival, and the leading negative phase of a tsunami is a typical recognizable feature of a moderately strong transoceanic tsunami. These results also support previous theory and can help to explain the observed discrepancies.  相似文献   

Responses of chemically active and naturally fractured shale under time‐dependent mechanical loading and ionic solution exposure          下载免费PDF全文

Chao Liu  Son K. Hoang  Younane N. Abousleiman 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(1):34-69

In this paper, the analytical dual‐porosity dual‐permeability poromechanics solution for saturated cylinders is extended to account for electrokinetic effects and material transverse isotropy, which simulate the responses of chemically active naturally fractured shale under time‐dependent mechanical loading and ionic solution exposure. The solution addresses the stresses, fracture pore pressure, matrix pore pressure, fluid fluxes, ion concentration evolution, and displacements due to the applied stress, pore pressure, and solute concentration difference between the sample and the circulation fluid. The presented solution will not only help validate numerical simulations but also assist in calibrating and interpreting laboratory results on dual‐porosity dual‐permeability shale. It is recommended that the analytical solutions of radial and axial displacements be used to match the corresponding laboratory‐recorded data to determine shale dual permeability and chemo‐electrical parameters including membrane coefficient, ions diffusion coefficients, and electro‐osmotic permeability.  相似文献   

生态系统服务弹性敏感性系数的合理性与决策属性探讨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

丁振民  姚顺波 《地理科学》2019,39(10):1672-1679

在经济学弹性基本概念的基础之上,采用数学推导的方式重点探讨3种生态系统服务弹性敏感性评价模型的合理性与决策属性。研究结果表明：① Kreuter敏感性系数大小始终为0~1;在极限形式下,生态系统服务价值变率函数与Kreuter敏感性系数具有相同的数学表达式与值域;所以这两种敏感性评价模型把1作为是否敏感的评价标准并不合适。生态系统服务交叉敏感性系数不符合一般意义上的“交叉敏感性”的概念,并且其计算公式不符合弹性的基本定义。② 弹性敏感性计算方式适用于随机变量间的研究,不适用于具有确定性关系的变量;生态系统服务框架下的3种弹性敏感性系数均建立在具有确定性关系的生态系统服务价值计算公式的基础之上,导致其敏感性计算结果缺乏深层次的决策属性。  相似文献   

On the linear elastic responses of the 2D bonded discrete element model     

Gao-Feng Zhao  Qiuyue Yin  Adrian R. Russell  Yingchun Li  Wei Wu  Qin Li 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(1):166-182

The bonded discrete element model (DEM) is a numerical tool that is becoming widely used when studying fracturing, fragmentation, and failure of solids in various disciplines. However, its abilities to solve elastic problems are usually overlooked. In this work, the main features of the 2D bonded DEM which influence Poisson's ratio and Young's modulus, and accuracy when solving elastic boundary value problems, are investigated. Outputs of numerical simulations using the 2D bonded DEM, the finite element method, a hyper elasticity analysis, and the distinct lattice spring model (DLSM) are compared in the investigation. It is shown that a shear interaction (local) factor and a geometric (global) factor are two essential elements for the 2D bonded DEM to reproduce a full range of Poisson's ratios. It is also found that the 2D bonded DEM might be unable to reproduce the correct displacements for elastic boundary value problems when the represented Poisson's ratio is close to 0.5 or the long-range interaction is considered. In addition, an analytical relationship between the shear stiffness ratio and the Poisson's ratio, derived from a hyper elasticity analysis and applicable to discontinuum-based models, provides good agreement with outputs from the 2D bonded DEM and DLSM. Finally, it is shown that the selection of elastic parameters used the 2D bonded DEM has a significant effect on fracturing and fragment patterns of solids.  相似文献   

气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

刘剑宇  张强  陈喜  顾西辉 《地理学报》2016,71(11):1875-1885

利用中国372个水文站月径流数据（1960-2000年）及41个水文站年径流数据（2001-2014年）,采用基于Budyko假设的水热耦合平衡方程,构建气候变化和人类活动对径流变化影响定量评估模型,在Penman-Monteith潜在蒸发分析基础上,进一步分析气象因子对径流变化的弹性系数,量化气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明：① 中国北方地区流域径流变化对各气象因子弹性系数明显大于中国南方地区。就全国而言,径流变化对各因子的弹性系数为：降水>土地利用/土地覆盖变化（LUCC）>相对湿度>太阳辐射>最高气温>风速>最低气温;② 1980-2000年,气候变化总体上有利于增加中国年径流量,而降水对年径流量增加的贡献最为显著;③ 1980-2000年,中国南方流域中,气候变化对年径流变化的影响以增加作用为主,而北方流域,以减少年径流作用为主。对中国大多数流域径流变化而言,人类活动的影响主要以减少年径流量为主。2001-2014年,气候变化以减少径流量为主,人类活动对径流变化的影响程度明显增强,气候变化与人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为53.5%、46.5%。该研究对气候变化与人类活动影响下,中国水资源规划管理、防灾减灾及保障水资源安全具有重要理论与现实意义。  相似文献   

Interaction between a circular opening and fractures originating from its boundary in a piecewise homogeneous plane     

S. G. Mogilevskaya  L. Rothenburg  M. B. Dusseault 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2000,24(12):947-970

The complex variables boundary element method (CVBEM) is used to study interaction between a circular opening and fractures originating from its boundary in a piecewise homogeneous plane. A new complex hypersingular equation for piecewise homogeneous media with a circular opening is obtained. The equation is solved using the CVBEM technique with circular and straight boundary elements and polynomial approximations (with square root asymptotics for crack tip elements) for the unknown functions. The algorithm is verified through comparison with known semi‐analytical and numerical solutions that involve interaction between a circular opening and specific systems of cracks or other openings. New numerical results concerning the interaction of the circular opening with the cracks and circular inclusions are presented. The method is applied to an important problem in the petroleum industry: modelling propagation of hydraulic fractures in the vicinity of a borehole. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

天山北坡西部雪岭云杉海拔梯度生态弹性变化          下载免费PDF全文

喻树龙  郭冬  姜盛夏  张同文  范煜婷  张瑞波  秦莉  尚华明  张合理  苟晓霞  刘可祥 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2024,18(5)

基于天山北坡西部温泉哈夏林区间隔100m海拔高度采集的雪岭云杉梯度样本的断面积生长量资料,分析该区域树木生态弹性变化。干旱事件是区域生态弹性最主要的干扰因子,高温事件也是干扰因子之一。干扰因子的强度会造成生态弹性梯度特征的变化。在极端干旱年份,哈夏林区梯度生长弹性特征最显著,即中高海拔为强抵抗力和弱恢复力,而低海拔则呈相反态势,并出现生长衰退现象。中旱事件时不同海拔均为强抵抗力和较强的恢复力。高温年份低海拔呈现弱抵抗力和弱恢复力。在发生持续干旱时,不同海拔高度的树木生长均受到遏制,但低海拔衰退强度大于高海拔区域,高海拔区域树木对干旱的适应能力要强于中低海拔。  相似文献   

Streamflow elasticity,in a context of climate change,in arid Andean watersheds of north-central Chile     

Cristián Barrera  Jorge Núñez Cobo  Maxime Souvignet  Jorge Oyarzún 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(10):1707-1719

ABSTRACT

Based on a future temperature increase of 0.5°C and precipitation decrease of 25%, the climate elasticity of streamflow to precipitation and temperature changes in 12 Andean watersheds of the Coquimbo Region, north-central Chile, was assessed. Also, the possible relationships between this elasticity and specific physiographic characteristics of the watersheds (area, average elevation, slope distribution, terrain roughness, slope orientation, vegetation cover) were studied. Climate elasticity of streamflow ranged between 0 and 2.8. Watersheds presenting higher elevations, with a fairly well-balanced distribution of slope exposure tend to exhibit lower elasticity, which could be explained by the contribution of snowfall to the hydrological regime, more significant in those watersheds. Results should be considered when downscaling climate model projections at the basin scale in mountain settings. Finally, uncertainties in the approach, given by factors such as streamflow seasonality, data availability and representativeness and watershed characteristics, and therefore the scope of the results, are discussed.  相似文献