Short Term and Short Range Seismicity Patterns in Different Seismic Areas of the World     

R. Console  F. Di Luccio  M. Murru  M. Imoto  G. Stavrakakis 《Natural Hazards》1999,19(2-3):107-121

The aim of this work is to quantitatively set up a simple hypothesis for occurrence of earthquakes conditioned by prior events, on the basis of a previously existing model and the use of recent instrumental observations. A simple procedure is presented in order to determine the conditional probability of pairs of events (foreshock-mainshock, mainshock-aftershock) with short time and space separation. The first event of a pair should not be an aftershock, i.e., it must not be related to a stronger previous event. The Italian earthquake catalog of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) (1975–1995, M 3.4), the earthquake catalog of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (1983–1994, M 3.0) and that of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) (1982–1994, M 3.8) were analyzed. The number of observed pairs depends on several parameters: the size of the space-time quiescence volume defining nonaftershocks, the inter event time, the minimum magnitude of the two events, and the spatial dimension of the alarm volume after the first event. The Akaike information criterion has been adopted to assess the optimum set of space-time parameters used in the definition of the pairs, assuming that the occurrence rate of subsequent events may be modeled by two Poisson processes with different rates: the higher rate refers to the space-time volume defined by the alarms and the lower one simulates earthquakes that occur in the nonalarm space-time volume. On the basis of the tests carried out on the seismic catalog of Italy, the occurrence rate of M 3.8 earthquakes followed by a M 3.8 mainshock within 10 km and 10 days (validity) is 0.459. We have observed, for all three catalogs, that the occurrence rate density for the second event of a couple (mainshock or aftershock) of magnitude M₂ subsequent to a nonaftershock of magnitude M₁ in the time range T can be modeled by the following relationship: (T, M₂) = 10^{a + b(M1 - M2)} with b varying from 0.74 (Japan) to 1.09 (Greece). The decrease of the occurrence rate in time for a mainshock after a foreshock or for large aftershocks after a mainshock, for all three databases, obeys the Omori's law with p changing from 0.94 (Italy) to 2.0 (Greece).  相似文献   

基于抗震性态的设防标准研究   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11       下载免费PDF全文

谢礼立  马玉宏 《地震学报》2002,24(2):200-209

以基于性态的抗震设计为出发点,并以我国为例,针对目前国内外抗震设防标准的若干问题和不足,提出了基于性态抗震设计的三环节抗震设防方法．将现有的设防内容改为确定结构的抗震设计类别、确定设计烈度或设计地震动参数、确定建筑的重要性等级３个方面,并分别在每一方面进行具体深入的研究,从而形成了一套完整的基于性态的抗震设防标准确定的原则、方法和框架,可以直接用来编制规范供抗震设计使用．   相似文献   

GIS公路地质环境评价研究     

王学杰  陈廷方  高德政 《上海国土资源》2006,(3):15-18

地质环境评价是公路环境评价中一项重要的内容,但公路地质环境定量化的影响评价至今报道甚少。该文根据高速公路通过区地质环境特点,提出了一套用于地质环境评价的指标体系,叙述了公路地质环境评价的基本技术流程,以地质环境评价空间图形信息和属性信息为基础建立系统数据库,利用GIS系统的空间分析能力,评价道路地质环境影响的研究思路。  相似文献   

Monthly Extended Predicting Experiments with Nonlinear Regional Prediction. Part Ⅱ： Improvement of Wave Component Prediction          下载免费PDF全文

陈伯民  纪立人  杨培才  张道民 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2006,20(3):295-305

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DOWNSCALING FORECAST OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OVER GUANGXI BASED ON BP NEURAL NETWORK MODEL     

何慧  金龙  覃志年  袁丽军 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2007,13(1):97-100

Variables fields such as enstrophy, meridional-wind and zonal-wind variables are derived from monthly 500 hPa geopotential height anomalous fields. In this work, we select original predictors from monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields and their variables in June of 1958 - 2001, and determine comprehensive predictors by conducting empirical orthogonal function (EOF) respectively with the original predictors. A downscaling forecast model based on the back propagation (BP) neural network is built by use of the comprehensive predictors to predict the monthly precipitation in June over Guangxi with the monthly dynamic extended range forecast products. For comparison, we also build another BP neural network model with the same predictands by using the former comprehensive predictors selected from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields in May to December of 1957 - 2000 and January to April of 1958 - 2001. The two models are tested and results show that the precision of superposition of the downscaling model is better than that of the one based on former comprehensive predictors, but the prediction accuracy of the downscaling model depends on the output of monthly dynamic extended range forecast.  相似文献   

修正的莫尔-库仑理论的解析和验证     

石寒 《岩土力学》2007,28(7):1491-1494

根据主应力可分解为静水应力和偏应力,以及它们在应力莫尔圆和变形方面的相关性,推导出修正的莫尔-库仑理论的数学表达式。从理论上解决了库仑理论和莫尔理论存在的许多缺陷,特别是中间主应力对材料抗剪强度的影响。它的四参数准则的计算结果与一些混凝土的试验数据相当吻合。  相似文献   

煤炭资源勘查规范的进步与发展——新型煤炭资源地质勘查法规体系的构建思维     

李献水  陈平 《中国煤田地质》2007,19(1):1-3,86

在贯彻执行我国现行有关煤炭资源勘查规范及相关规定的基础上，对国际国内煤炭地质勘查阶段划分进行了对比，论述了建国以来中国煤炭地质勘查规范的主要技术内涵，对加强贯彻新规范，促进标准化体系建设和适应社会主义市场经济体制改革进行了探讨。  相似文献   

三峡引水工程秦巴段输水隧洞稳定性分析     

李东林吴树仁  韩金良刘景儒 《地质通报》2007,26(3):321-326

三峡引水工程秦巴段隧洞总长占线路总长的80%。为了分析隧洞施工及运营中可能发生的工程地质问题,在地质调查、地应力测量和岩石力学参数测试的基础上,利用Ansys有限元软件对引水工程北部不同深度、不同截面形态的隧洞围岩的应力重分布情况进行了模拟计算,得到了圆形隧洞、城门形隧洞和马蹄形隧洞围岩的应力分布结果。利用Hoek-Brown强度准则,得到了隧洞围岩的强度/应力比值,进而对不同深度、不同截面形态的隧洞围岩的稳定性进行了分析。初步认为:隧洞埋深小于1000m时,应优先考虑圆形隧洞和马蹄形隧洞;埋深大于1000m时,应优先考虑城门形隧洞。这项研究成果为引水工程深埋隧洞的设计提供了参考依据。  相似文献   

南海夏季风爆发早晚的越赤道气流特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

覃志年  金龙何慧 《广西气象》2007,28(3):8-11

根据国家气候中心提供的南海夏季风爆发期典型偏早（1966、1972、1996、2000、2001年）和偏晚年份（1970、1973、1987、1989、1991年）,利用ECMW F再分析1-5月逐日经向风资料,计算5个通道越赤道气流和越赤道乞流总量的距平值;探讨越赤道气流与南海夏季风爆发早晚的关系与特征。为预测南海夏季风爆发早晚提供判据。  相似文献   

动力延伸预报产品在广西月降水预报中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

何慧金龙  覃志年陈见 《应用气象学报》2007,18(5):727-731

利用1958—2005年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和2003—2005年国家气候中心的动力延伸预报产品, 运用自然正交函数展开 (EOF) 求取预报关键区内的空间特征向量及其时间系数, 结合相似离度方法查找与预报月份相似的个例, 进而作出广西月降水量预报。独立样本试验证明, 利用动力延伸预报产品制作的区域月降水预报比利用前期实况高度距平场相关区域制作的预报效果更好。  相似文献