慢特征分析法在气象上的应用进展     

潘昕浓  王革丽  王鹏飞 《气象与环境科学》2016,39(1):96-101

气候系统具有非平稳特征,根本原因在于其外强迫随时间发生改变,因此外部驱动力的分析对于理解气候系统的动力学特征至关重要,而如何有效提取系统外部驱动信息是一个亟待解决的前沿科学问题。最近几年,在生物神经学领域中应用的一种提取非平稳信号中外强迫信息的方法——慢特征分析法(Slow Feature Analysis,SFA),在气象领域中也得到了初步成功的尝试,结果显示出此方法对气候系统的外强迫信息分析及有关动力学机制的探究有较好的应用前景。本文主要介绍SFA方法的理论思想及实施步骤,并通过一个理想的非平稳时间序列检验其提取外强迫信息的能力,结果证明在衰减的Logistic模型中,可利用SFA算法提取出模型中的外强迫,且与真实外强迫的相关系数可达0.99;此外,还介绍将该方法应用于Arosa臭氧时间序列,分析其提取的外强迫信息的动力学特征;并介绍了在气候时间序列建模中引入外强迫因子的预测效果。  相似文献   

南京市灰霾天气的长时间变化特征及其气候原因探讨          下载免费PDF全文

吴丹  于亚鑫  夏俊荣  龚宇麟  刘刚  李凤英  杨孟  曹双 《大气科学学报》2016,39(2):232-242

以南京市1954—2012年的逐日气象数据分析南京市灰霾天的长时间变化规律并从气候角度探讨其变化原因。南京市的霾日数近60 a来呈现明显上升趋势,从20世纪50年代的40 d/a已增加至21世纪的230 d/a左右,气象行业标准界定的霾日与人工观测的霾日长期变化趋势一致,前者在南京市具有较好的适用性。南京市雾霾混合日呈现出先增加后下降的趋势,其对应的相对湿度在不断降低,这可能是雾霾日向霾日转换,雾霾日数降低而霾日数增多的关键因素。南京地区能见度不断降低,近30 a里约下降8.4 km,霾日数与能见度相关系数高达-0.91,随着能见度的降低,灰霾天数几乎线性增加。南京地区的年平均相对湿度在1985年以后大幅降低,已从约80%下降至68%左右,湿度与霾日的相关系数为-0.72,随着湿度的降低,霾日呈上升趋势。南京年平均温度1985年后明显上升,升高了1.8℃,其中冬季上升幅度最大,夏季上升幅度最小;年均温度与霾日数呈现出明显正相关,和相对湿度呈现明显负相关,温度的升高将造成相对湿度的降低,进而造成霾日增多。南京的年平均风速1978年后不断降低,到20世纪末约降低1.5 m/s,风速与霾日呈现出显著的负相关,随着平均风速的降低,霾日数不断增多。在全球变暖的大气候背景下,南京市霾的长时间变化受到各种气候因子的影响,能见度、相对湿度、温度和风速都是重要的影响因素。  相似文献   

敦密断裂带白垩纪两期重要的变形事件   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

孙晓猛  张旭庆  何松  王璞珺  郑涵  万阔  李多姿 《岩石学报》2016,32(4):1114-1128

本文报道了敦密断裂带糜棱岩中黑云母~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar定年结果和大规模走滑-逆冲断裂的几何学、运动学特征及其形成时代,以便揭示断裂带两期变形事件的构造属性。黑龙江省密山市花岗质糜棱岩中黑云母~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar加权平均年龄为132.2±1.2Ma,它是敦密断裂带经历伸展事件的冷却年龄,也是东北亚大陆边缘在早白垩世Hauterivian期-Albian期发生强烈区域伸展作用的产物。密山市至辽宁省清原县系列大型走滑-逆冲断层和断层相关褶皱揭示出在晚白垩世晚期-末期发生右旋走滑-逆冲事件,该事件规模大,影响范围广,导致整个断裂带遭受到强烈改造,形成对冲式断裂系统。将研究区走滑-逆冲断裂与山东省郯庐断裂带中段挤压构造对比,认为郯庐断裂带北段和中段在晚白垩世末期都发生了强烈的走滑-逆冲事件,它们具有相同的构造特征和构造属性。  相似文献   

Oil dispersal modelling: reanalysis of the Rena oil spill using open-source modelling tools     

HFE Jones  MTS Poot  JC Mullarney  WP de Lange 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2016,50(1):10-27

ABSTRACT

Oil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach.  相似文献   

IS THE EXTREME SNOW DEPTH RECORD FOR NORDLAND,NORWAY RELIABLE?          下载免费PDF全文

WILFRED H. THEAKSTONE 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2016,98(4):313-323

A snow depth of 370 cm at Dunderlandsdalen in winter 1919–20 is the largest recorded at stations in Nordland, Norway. During the period 1895–1924, the average maximum annual value there was 150.4 cm; at other stations it ranged from 38.5 to 190.1 cm. The ratio of maxima at other stations to that at Dunderlandsdalen was particularly low in 1919–20. In Nordland generally, that winter's recorded precipitation was slightly above the 30‐year average, but at Dunderlandsdalen it exceeded the average by 34%. At all stations except Dunderlandsdalen, 26 Jan.–1 Feb. was a dry period; at Dunderlandsdalen, 51.7 mm was recorded. Only one day without snowfall was recorded at Dunderlandsdalen between early January and early February, but elsewhere there were few days with snowfall. The difference in snowfall frequency and snow depth at Dunderlandsdalen in 1919–20 from values recorded elsewhere in Nordland contrasts with the relationships in other winters between 1895 and 1924. No observations were made at Dunderlandsdalen in winter 1917–18. Two of the householders there died in 1916. A change of personnel making the observations may have been responsible for the data gap and for the anomalous 1919 data. Changes made to buildings or the recording site in 1917 or 1918 may have resulted in increased snow depths as a result of drifting. Maintaining a record of climatic extremes and their environmental consequences is important. Data must be accurate. In view of this, it would be sensible to regard the validity of the 370 cm Dunderlandsdalen maximum as doubtful.  相似文献   

Variability of levee failure mechanisms subject to heavy rainfalls,case studies in Taiwan     

Wen-Chao Huang  Hong-Wen Yu 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(4):269-279

In this study, the failure mechanisms for Chiuliao 1st Levee and Gueishan Levee in Taiwan were re-examined comprehensively considering the uncertainty of different parameters. Results have shown that for Chiuliao 1st Levee, the slope sliding failure has a higher coefficient of variation (COV). For Gueishan Levee, retaining wall sliding and overturning failure have higher values of COV instead. It can also be found that the scouring depths affect the stability of the levee significantly, therefore, a protecting system for the backfill material may be necessary to increase the stability of the levee effectively.  相似文献   

Phylogeography of the pelagic fish Seriola lalandi at different scales: confirmation of inter-ocean population structure and evaluation of southern African genetic diversity     

BL Swart  AE Bester-van der Merwe  SE Kerwath 《African Journal of Marine Science》2016,38(4):513-524

The study investigated the global and regional phylogeography of the yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi by examining genetic diversity and population genetic structure of this species at inter-and intra-ocean level and on a regional scale. DNA fragments of two mitochondrial genes, cytochrome b (Cytb) and cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and one nuclear gene, recombination activating gene 1 (RAG1), were sequenced to investigate the global-scale phylogeography of this species. The population genetic structure within the South Pacific, as well as along the South African coastline, was examined further using six microsatellite markers. Three distinct clades were identified for S. lalandi, which correspond with previously described subspecies of the North-East Pacific, North-West Pacific and the Southern Hemisphere. Within the latter, additional divergence was observed between the South Pacific and the South-East Atlantic regions. Divergence estimates were indicative of a Pacific origin for S. lalandi populations, because of Pleistocene vicariant events. Microsatellite analyses revealed overall significant genetic differentiation between South African and South Pacific samples. This corroborates recent findings on the global phylogeography of the species. No population differentiation was observed within South Africa, indicating high levels of gene flow.  相似文献   

Occurrence and Chemical Compositions of Amphiboles in Altered Dioritic Rocks of Laiwu Skarn‐Type Iron Deposit in West Shandong Area,China     

《Resource Geology》2018,68(4):425-445

The Laiwu Fe deposit is the largest skarn‐type deposit in West Shandong in China, with an estimated reserve of 290 Mt of iron ore. Here, we investigate the occurrence and chemical composition of amphiboles in altered dioritic rocks of this deposit. Three generations of amphibole group minerals were identified in these rocks. The first type (Type 1) is a hornblende with a generally euhedral crystal shape, 150–500 μm in size, and dominantly occurs in the host monzonite. The second type (Type 2) of hornblende occurs as fine grains (<100 μm) or concentric rims, less than 50 μm in thickness, around the Type 1 hornblende. The third type (Type 3) of amphibole is anhedral actinolite occurring along the boundary or the cracks of the Type 1 or 2 hornblende grains. The Type 1 hornblende has higher FeO (12.5–15.6 wt.%) and lower MgO contents (11.2–14.6 wt.%) than the Type 2 hornblende, which has an FeO content ranging from 8.8 to 10.5 wt.% and MgO content ranging from 14.2 to 17.1 wt.%. The Type 3 actinolite shows the lowest FeO (4.6–6.4 wt.%) and highest MgO (19.8–21.2 wt.%) contents. We infer that the Type 2 hornblende formed from Fe‐rich hydrothermal fluids released during rapid upwelling of the crystallizing magma. The fluids were relatively reduced and enriched in Fe. The Type 3 actinolite formed by coupled dissolution and reprecipitation, and its formation is one of the features denoting Fe‐enrichment events. Our study of these types of amphibole provides insights into the ore formation process.  相似文献   

辽南新元古代桥头组海相冰碛沉积事件     

田德欣  卢崇海  蔡新明  王彬娜  徐耸  王强  卢思桥 《世界地质》2018,37(4):1092-1100

通过对辽南瓦房店市岳山地区详细的野外地质调查,在桥头组中首次发现两处冰筏坠石冰碛沉积现象。坠石大小不等,均呈椭球倒锥状,磨圆较好,岩性分别为灰褐色细粒石英砂岩和黄褐色铁质胶结细粒石英砂岩,寄主围岩岩性为黄绿色粉砂质页岩且环绕坠石沉积,两者岩性差别较大,界线清晰。另外在桥头组中采集的碎屑锆石最小~(206)Pb/~(238)U年龄为662±16 Ma(~(207)Pb/~(206)Pb年龄为884±28 Ma),可以推断桥头组形成晚于800 Ma,应为新元古代中晚期沉积产物。根据以上证据及层序学资料,笔者把辽宁地区出露的桥头组、长岭子组(康家组)厘定为辽宁地区第二次冰碛事件,形成时代确定为新元古代中北方世(南华世)。  相似文献   

广西桂林凉风洞秋冬季滴水和沉积物氧同位素对极端降水的记录研究     

吴夏  潘谋成  曹建华  朱晓燕  张美良 《地球学报》2018,39(1):53-61

近年来,全球环境变化导致的极端气候事件的发生频率剧增,引起了国内外学者的广泛关注。由于器测记录时间较短,因此需要通过精确连续记录古气候变化的石笋来解译极端气候事件的规律。本文针对桂林凉风洞2015年9月至2016年1月的大气降水、洞穴滴水和现代沉积物的氧同位素组成进行了高分辨率的监测。监测结果揭示了由于秋冬水汽源的改变,导致桂林地区大气降水δD、δ~(18)O同位素值显示逐渐偏正的季节性变化,并且建立了该区域大气降水线为:δD=8.8δ~(18)O+16.38。由于大气降水作为凉风洞水源补给唯一来源,使得洞穴滴水的δ~(18)O继承大气降水的δ~(18)O所蕴含的环境信息,进而记录在洞穴现代沉积物中。但是受到洞穴顶部岩溶表层带的平滑或者均一化的作用,使得洞穴滴水的δ~(18)O同位素值要偏正于大气降水的δ~(18)O同位素值。在极端降水信号输入岩溶表层带后由于存在不同的水文地球化学过程,从而导致洞穴沉积物对其极端降水事件的响应时间存在不同,并且在δ~(18)O同位素值也存在明显差异。因此,系统监测洞穴滴水、沉积物δ~(18)O同位素对外界环境信息的响应过程,能为量化或精确解译石笋δ~(18)O同位素记录所指代的古气候环境信息提供基础。  相似文献