The ‘ultimate objective’ of the framework convention on climate change requires a new approach in climate change research     

Robert J. Swart  Pier Vellinga 《Climatic change》1994,26(4):343-349

In the Framework Convention on Climate Change an ultimate objective is formulated that calls for stabilization of the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that would allow ecosystems to adapt naturally, safeguard food supply and enable sustainable development to proceed in a sustainable manner. This paper addresses the possible contribution of science to translate this rather vague and ambiguous objective into more practicable terms. We propose a regionalized, risk-based six-step approach that couples an analysis of ecosystem vulnerability to the results of simulations of climate change. An ultimate objective level could be determined in terms of stabilized concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The level and timing of this stabilization would be determined by a political appreciation of associated risks for managed and unmanaged ecosystems. These risks would be assessed by region in an internationally coordinated scientific effort, followed by a global synthesis.  相似文献   

The role of bathymetry and directional wave conditions on observed crescentic bar dynamics     

Rinse L. de Swart  Francesca Ribas  Gonzalo Simarro  Jorge Guillén  Daniel Calvete 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(15):3252-3270

Nearshore sandbars are important features in the surf zone of many beaches because they strongly influence the mean circulation and evolving morphology. Due to variations in wave conditions, sandbars can experience cross-shore migration and vary in shape from alongshore uniform (shore-parallel) to alongshore rhythmic (crescentic). Sandbar dynamics have been studied extensively, but existing observational studies usually do not quantify the processes leading to crescentic bar formation and straightening. This study analyses the dynamics of crescentic bar events at the fetch-limited beach of Castelldefels (northwestern Mediterranean Sea, Spain) using 7.5 years of hourly time-exposure video images and detailed wave conditions. The results show that, despite the generally calm wave conditions, the sandbars were very dynamic in the cross-shore and longshore directions. They often migrated rapidly offshore during storms (up to 70 m in one day) and more slowly onshore during post-storm conditions. Crescentic bars were often present at the study site (48% of the time), but only when the sandbar was at least 10 m from the shoreline. They displayed a large variability in wavelengths (100–700 m), alongshore migration speeds (0–50 m/day) and cross-shore amplitudes (5–20 m). Wavelengths increased for larger bar–shoreline distances and the alongshore migration speeds were strongly correlated with the alongshore component of the radiation stresses. Crescentic patterns typically developed during low–medium energetic waves with limited obliquity ( $\theta \lesssim 20$° at 10 m depth), while bar straightening occurred during medium–high energetic waves with strong oblique angles of incidence ( $\theta \gtrsim 15$°). Overall, this study provides further proof for the important role of wave direction in crescentic bar dynamics and highlights the strong dependence of crescentic bar development on the initial bathymetric configuration.  相似文献   

Editorial     

Paul Carling  Peter Swart 《Sedimentology》2006,53(5):943-944

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Non-linear channel–shoal dynamics in long tidal embayments     

G. P. Schramkowski  H. M. Schuttelaars  H. E. de Swart 《Ocean Dynamics》2004,54(3-4):399-407

The dynamics of finite-amplitude bed forms in a tidal channel is studied with the use of an idealized morphodynamic model. The latter is based on depth-averaged equations for the tidal flow over a sandy bottom. The model considers phenomena on spatial scales of the order of the tidal excursion length. Transport of sediment mainly takes place as suspended load. The reference state of this model is characterized by a spatially uniform M₂ tidal current over a fixed horizontal bed. The temporal evolution of deviations from this reference state is governed by amplitude equations: these are a set of non-linear equations that describe the temporal evolution of bed forms. These equations are used to obtain new morphodynamic equilibria which may be either static or time-periodic. Several of these bottom profiles show strong similarity with the tidal bars that are observed in natural estuaries. The dependence of the equilibrium solutions on the value of bottom friction and channel width is investigated systematically. For narrow channels (width small compared to the tidal excursion length) stable static equilibria exist if bottom friction is slightly larger than r_cr. For channel widths more comparable to the tidal excursion length, multiple stable steady states may exist for bottom friction parameter values below r_cr. Regardless of channel width, stable time-periodic equilibria seem to emerge as the bottom friction is increased.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg  相似文献   

A model for grain-size sorting over tidal sand ridges     

M. Walgreen  H.E. de Swart  D. Calvete 《Ocean Dynamics》2004,54(3-4):374-384

A model was developed and analyzed to quantify the effect of graded sediment on the formation of tidal sand ridges. Field data reveal coarse (fine) sediment at the crests (in the troughs), but often phase shifts between the mean grain-size distribution and the bottom topography occur. Following earlier work, this study is based on a linear stability analysis of a basic state with respect to small bottom perturbations. The basic state describes an alongshore tidal current on a coastal shelf. Sediment is transported as bed load and dynamic hiding effects are accounted for. A one-layer model for the bed evolution is used and two grain size classes (fine and coarse sand) are considered. Results indicate an increase in growth and migration rates of tidal sand ridges for a bimodal mixture, whilst the wavelength of the ridges remains unchanged. A symmetrical externally forced tidal current results in a grain-size distribution which is in phase with the ridges. Incorporation of an additional external M₄ tidal constituent or a steady current results in a phase shift between the grain-size distribution and ridge topography. These results show a general agreement with observations. The physical mechanism responsible for the observed grain-size distribution over the ridges is also discussed.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg  相似文献   

Phylogeography of the pelagic fish Seriola lalandi at different scales: confirmation of inter-ocean population structure and evaluation of southern African genetic diversity     

BL Swart  AE Bester-van der Merwe  SE Kerwath 《African Journal of Marine Science》2016,38(4):513-524

The study investigated the global and regional phylogeography of the yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi by examining genetic diversity and population genetic structure of this species at inter-and intra-ocean level and on a regional scale. DNA fragments of two mitochondrial genes, cytochrome b (Cytb) and cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and one nuclear gene, recombination activating gene 1 (RAG1), were sequenced to investigate the global-scale phylogeography of this species. The population genetic structure within the South Pacific, as well as along the South African coastline, was examined further using six microsatellite markers. Three distinct clades were identified for S. lalandi, which correspond with previously described subspecies of the North-East Pacific, North-West Pacific and the Southern Hemisphere. Within the latter, additional divergence was observed between the South Pacific and the South-East Atlantic regions. Divergence estimates were indicative of a Pacific origin for S. lalandi populations, because of Pleistocene vicariant events. Microsatellite analyses revealed overall significant genetic differentiation between South African and South Pacific samples. This corroborates recent findings on the global phylogeography of the species. No population differentiation was observed within South Africa, indicating high levels of gene flow.  相似文献   

Europe adapts to climate change: Comparing National Adaptation Strategies     

G. Robbert Biesbroek  Rob J. Swart  Timothy R. Carter  Caroline Cowan  Thomas Henrichs  Hanna Mela  Michael D. Morecroft  Daniela Rey 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(3):440-450

For the last two decades, European climate policy has focused almost exclusively on mitigation of climate change. It was only well after the turn of the century, with impacts of climate change increasingly being observed, that adaptation was added to the policy agenda and EU Member States started to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). This paper reviews seven National Adaptation Strategies that were either formally adopted or under development by Member States at the end of 2008. The strategies are analysed under the following six themes. Firstly, the factors motivating and facilitating the development of a national adaptation strategy. Secondly, the scientific and technical support needed for the development and implementation of such a strategy. Thirdly, the role of the strategy in information, communication and awareness-raising of the adaptation issue. Fourthly, new or existing forms of multi-level governance to implement the proposed actions. Fifthly, how the strategy addresses integration and coordination with other policy domains. Finally, how the strategy suggests the implementation and how the strategy is evaluated. The paper notes that the role of National Adaptation Strategies in the wider governance of adaptation differs between countries but clearly benchmarks a new political commitment to adaptation at national policy levels. However, we also find that in most cases approaches for implementing and evaluating the strategies are yet to be defined. The paper concludes that even though the strategies show great resemblance in terms of topics, methods and approaches, there are many institutional challenges, including multi-level governance and policy integration issues, which can act as considerable barriers in future policy implementation.  相似文献   

辽宁盖县梁屯—矿洞沟碱性正长岩杂岩体的U—Pb和Sm—Nd年龄及其地质意义   总被引：17，自引：14，他引：17  

蔡剑辉  阎国翰  牟保磊  许保良  邵宏翔  许荣华 《岩石学报》2002,18(3):349-354

辽宁梁屯 -矿洞沟杂岩体主要由辉石正长岩、霓辉正长岩和霓辉角闪正长岩等碱性岩石组成 ,具有全岩 Rb- Sr等时线年龄 186 6± 115 Ma和 ISr=0 .70 4 9的同位素特征 ,是我国目前报道的最古老的碱性正长岩类。本文报道了该岩体的锆石U- Pb和全岩 Sm- Nd同位素测试资料 ,获得了锆石 U- Pb同位素年龄为 185 7± 2 0 Ma、Sm- Nd等时年龄为 1787± 180 Ma、εNd(t) =- 4 .8～ - 5 .0的数据。它们反映出该杂岩体形成年龄的上限为 185 7± 2 0 Ma、下限不小于 1787± 180 Ma,来源于富集地幔物质。基于这些数据并结合区域地质资料分析 ,作者提出了华北地台北缘古元古宙存在有富集地幔储库 ,以及辽河群主体形成于 190 0 Ma以前的认识  相似文献   

A METHOD FOR THE IDENTIFICATION AND ELIMINATION OF CONTAMINATION DURING CARBON ISOTOPIC ANALYSES OF EXTRATERRESTRIAL SAMPLES     

P.K. Swart  M.M. Grady  C.T. Pillinger 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1983,18(2):137-154

The study of carbon abundance and isotopic composition in extraterrestrial samples is fraught with problems related to contamination in the terrestrial environment and during sample handling. A stepped combustion method is described which demonstrates that progress can be made towards resolving the indigenous species from contamination which for the most part burns at low temperature (< 425 ± 25 ±C). The proposed method is not applicable to samples which have indigenous phases burning at low temperatures e.g. the C1 and C2 carbonaceous chondrites. A number of examples where its application is possible are given. Even meteorites collected immediately after their fall, such as Allende, contain a proportion of extraneous carbon which has deleterious effects on any bulk estimate of isotopic composition. “Falls” which have spent a considerable time in museum collections and “finds” (other than Antarctic samples) can be considered as grossly contaminated. Bulk isotope and carbon abundance measurements in the literature for most samples having less than 1 wt% C are thus of questionable value. Antarctic samples have much less contamination of an organic nature but all seem to contain a weathering component which can be easily recognised and hence disregarded in estimates of bulk composition. Stepped combustion, applied to an Apollo 11 lunar soil which has not been specially stored and which now contains, due to contamination, nearly twice as much carbon as when originally collected, can still afford data closely resembling those obtained from the sample when it was first returned to Earth.  相似文献   

大兴安岭中南段中生代成矿物质的深部来源与背景   总被引：19，自引：3，他引：16  

邵济安  牟保磊  朱慧忠  张履桥 《岩石学报》2010,26(3):649-656

大兴安岭是我国北方一个重要的多金属成矿带。本文从成矿的物质来源和构造作用两方面讨论大兴安岭的成矿系统。Sr、Nd、O、Pb同位素的研究显示大兴安岭成矿物质的深部来源,大兴安岭晚中生代壳幔混熔花岗质岩石组成及其构造环境的研究,表明它们是在板内非造山的伸展环境下形成的A型花岗岩。与南岭花岗岩及其成矿作用的对比研究,将加深对大兴安岭中生代成矿特征的认识。深部构造特征也进一步印证了大兴安岭的成岩-成矿的背景。  相似文献