中国南方6省1月份降水和极端低温的分布特征     

吴香华  牛生杰  祁莉  许潇锋  张曦 《南京气象学院学报》2009,32(6)

采用中国南方湖南、湖北、贵州、广西、江西和安徽6省近50 a 1月份降水和气温资料,运用正交函数分解法和SYM8小波分析了它们的时空分布特征,并对极端低温的区域均值进行了广义极值模型拟合,同时研究了降水与气温的相关性.结果表明,该地区1月份降水量主要有全区域分布型和南北分布型,极端低温主要有全区域分布型、南北分布型和东西分布型.1月份降水量的全区域总和以及南北部差值都有先增后减的趋势.全区域的极端低温缓慢增长,南北部的差值先减后增,东西部的差值在1975年以前递增,随后几乎趋于稳定.6省1月份极端低温区域均值服从Weibull分布,在95%置信水平下,预测50 a一遇和100 a一遇的极小值达-6.78 ℃和-7.41 ℃.1月份降水量与极端低温的相关不显著,与平均气温在局部地区为负相关.  相似文献   

导线覆冰极值的概率分布模拟及其应用试验   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

江志红  刘冬  刘渝  熊海星  鞠晓慧 《南京气象学院学报》2010,33(4):385-394

利用南方地区多个气象站和电力部门观冰站的导线覆冰逐日冰厚资料,将广义极值分布和广义帕雷托分布引入导线覆冰的概率模型研究中,通过超门限覆冰次数的泊松分布拟合检验,结合H ill图解,提出了基于超门限峰值法门限值的确定方法;对两种分布在导线覆冰极值模型拟合的适用性研究表明,广义帕雷托分布对各站覆冰冰厚极值的拟合精度最高;重现期冰厚极值估计随样本长度的变化分析表明,广义帕雷托分布模型极值估计的稳定性比广义极值分布强,一般样本容量达到25 a左右时,广义帕雷托分布重现期冰厚极值的估计趋于稳定,可以作为短序列下估计导线覆冰极值的较好方法。  相似文献   

基于5分钟雷达资料降水估测模型的比较          下载免费PDF全文

LIU Yong-He  ZHANG Wan-Chang  SHAO Yue-Hong  ZHANG Jing-Ying 《大气和海洋科学快报》2009,2(6):327-332

For the Z-R relationship in radar-based rainfall estimation, the distribution of corresponding R values for a given Z value （or the corresponding Z value for a given R value） may be highly skewed. However, the traditional power-law model is physically deduced and fitted under the normal-distribution presumption of radar wave echoes associated with a rain rate value, and it may not be very appropriate. Considering this problem, the authors devised several generalized linear models with different forms and distribution presumptions to represent the Z-R relationship. Radar-reflectivity scans observed by a CINRAD/SC Doppler radar and 5-minute rainfall accumulation recorded by 10 ground gauges were used to fit these models. All data used in this study were collected during some large rainfalls of the period from 2005 to 2007. The radar and all gauges were installed in the catchment of the Yishu River, a branch of the Huaihe River in China. Three models based on normal distribution and a dBZ presumption of gamma distribution were fitted using maximum-likelihood techniques, which were resolved by genetic algorithms. Comparisons of estimated maximized likelihoods based on assumptions of gamma and normal distribution showed that all generalized linear models （GLMs） of presumed gamma distribution were better fitted than GLMs based on normal distribution. In a comparison of maximum-likelihood, the differences between these three models were small. Three error statistics were used to assess the agreement between radar estimated rainfall and gauge rainfall： relative bias （B）, root mean square error （RMSE）, and correlation coefficient （r）. The results showed that no one model was excellent in all criteria. On the whole, the GLM-based models gave smaller relative bias than the traditional power-law model. It is suggested that validations conducted in many previous works should have been made against a specific criterion but overlooked others.  相似文献   

江淮地区梅雨的新定义及其气候特征   总被引：19，自引：4，他引：15  

胡娅敏  丁一汇  廖菲 《大气科学》2008,32(1):101-112

用Cressman客观分析方法得到我国1954～2005年0.5°×0.5°的逐日降水格点资料,并定义了一个新的江淮地区的 “广义梅雨评定标准”,研究了包括长江中下游地区和淮河流域地区的整个江淮地区（28°N～34°N,110°E～122°E）梅雨期降水的气候特征。结果表明:江淮梅雨有显著的年际和年代际变化特征,主要存在2～3年、6～8年、 12～15年和18～20年的周期变化,2～3年的显著周期主要集中在20世纪70年代末以后。江淮地区梅雨在1965年前后、70年代末～80年代初和90年代初发生了三次显著的气候跃变。最后,从季风气流的水汽输送和副热带高压及阻塞高压的稳定维持三个方面讨论了江淮梅雨丰梅年和弱梅年时大气环流的异常特征。  相似文献   

How deep can forest vegetation cover extend their hydrological reinforcing contribution?          下载免费PDF全文

Elyas Hayati  Ehsan Abdi  Mohsen Mohseni Saravi  John L. Nieber  Baris Majnounian  Giovanni B. Chirico 《水文研究》2018,32(16):2570-2583

An experimental campaign was set up to quantify the contribution of evapotranspiration fluxes on hillslope hydrology and stability for different forest vegetation cover types. Three adjacent hillslopes, respectively, covered by hardwood, softwood, and grass were instrumented with nine access tubes each to monitor soil water dynamics at the three depths of 30, 60, and 100 cm, using a PR2/6 profile probe (Delta‐T Devices Ltd) for about 6 months including wet periods. Soil was drier under softwood and wetter under grass at all the three depths during most of the monitoring period. Matric suction derived via the soil moisture measurements was more responsive to changes in the atmospheric conditions and also recovered faster at the 30 cm depth. Results showed no significant differences between mean matric suction under hardwood (101.6 kPa) with that under either softwood or grass cover. However, a significant difference was found between mean matric suction under softwood (137.5 kPa) and grass (84.3 kPa). Results revealed that, during the wettest period, the hydrological effects from all three vegetation covers were substantial at the 30 cm depth, whereas the contribution from grass cover at 60 cm (2.0 kPa) and 100 cm (1.1 kPa) depths and from hardwood trees at 100 cm depth (1.2 kPa) was negligible. It is surmised that potential instability would have occurred at these larger depths along hillslopes where shallow hillslope failures are most likely to occur in the region. The hydrological effects from softwood trees, 8.1 and 3.9 kPa, were significant as the corresponding factor of safety values showed stable conditions at both depths of 60 and 100 cm, respectively. Therefore, the considerable hydrological reinforcing effects from softwood trees to the 100 cm depth suggest that a hillslope stability analysis would show that hillslopes with softwood trees will be stable even during the wet season.  相似文献   

浙江省三疣梭子蟹产量波动及潜在影响因素分析     

胡荧斌  徐美佳  王天姿  何毓钦  王迎宾 《海洋科学》2019,43(2):69-73

依据2000—2015年浙江省三疣梭子蟹(Portunustrituberculatus)渔获量的数据,以及影响渔获量的因素(管理类因素、环境类因素和营养关系类因素等共11个因子),使用广义加性模型(GAM)对各类因素对三疣梭子蟹渔获量的影响进行了分析。结果显示,赤潮面积、捕捞努力量和放流数量对三疣梭子蟹渔获量影响显著(P0.01)。3个因子的累积解释比率达98.3%,其中,赤潮的解释比率最大,达到47.2%,捕捞努力量的解释比率为37.8%,放流数量的解释比率为13.3%。三疣梭子蟹渔获量随着赤潮面积增加有所减少,随着捕捞努力量的加大有迅速增加的趋势,与放流尾数呈现正相关趋势。三疣梭子蟹渔获量的波动受诸多因素的影响。今后需开展更深入的研究,找到可能影响三疣梭子蟹渔获量的其他关键因素。  相似文献   

An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)     

Roberta Padulano  Alfredo Reder  Guido Rianna 《水文研究》2019,33(14):2020-2036

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.  相似文献   

山东南部近海秋季长蛇鲻相对资源量的分布及其影响因素     

刘逸文  张崇良  昝肖肖  孙铭  徐宾铎  薛莹  任一平 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2020,50(4):45-53

为探究长蛇鲻(Saurida elongate)的生态习性和分布规律,并为长蛇鲻资源的合理利用与养护提供科学依据,本文根据2016年秋季在山东南部近海进行的渔业资源与环境调查数据,分析了该海域长蛇鲻的分布特征,研究长蛇鲻成体、幼体的分布差异,并利用广义可加模型(GAM)研究其分布与生物因子和环境因子的关系。结果表明,长蛇鲻成体与幼体的分布存在差异,成体分布范围广,幼体主要分布在30 m等深线及以浅水域。GAM模型的结果表明,饵料生物、底层水温、水深和底层盐度是影响长蛇鲻相对资源量分布的主要因子。成体、幼体的分布与影响因子的关系差异极显著(P<0.01)。长蛇鲻成体的相对资源量随饵料生物和底层水温的增加表现为先上升后下降的趋势,而幼体呈现一致上升趋势;成体和幼体的相对资源量随水深增加均呈下降趋势;幼体相对资源量随底层盐度增加有明显上升趋势,而盐度对成体的影响不显著。本研究认为山东南部近海是长蛇鲻的重要栖息地,水温和盐度是成体和幼体分布差异的可能原因。  相似文献   

Comparative Analysis of the Generalized Omega Equation and Generalized Vertical Motion Equation     

Baofeng JIAO  Lingkun RAN  Na LI  Ren CAI  Tao QU  Yushu ZHOU 《大气科学进展》2023,40(5):856-873

Research on vertical motion in mesoscale systems is an extraordinarily challenging effort. Allowing for fewer assumptions, a new form of generalized vertical motion equation and a generalized Omega equation are derived in the Cartesian coordinate system(nonhydrostatic equilibrium) and the isobaric coordinate system(hydrostatic equilibrium),respectively. The terms on the right-hand side of the equations, which comprise the Q vector, are composed of three factors:dynamic, thermodynamic, and mass. ...  相似文献   

Applications of generalized additive model (GAM) to satellite-derived variables and fishery data for prediction of fishery resources distributions in the Arabian Sea   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

H. U. Solanki  Dhyey Bhatpuria  Prakash Chauhan 《国际地球制图》2017,32(1):30-43

This study aims to illustrate how remotely sensed oceanic variables and fishing operations data can be used to predict suitable habitat of fishery resources in Geographic Information System. We used sea surface height anomaly (SSHa), sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll concentration (CC), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and fishing depth as predictor variables. Fishery data of Indian squid (Loligo spp.) and catfish (Tachysurus spp.) for study period (1998–2004) were segregated randomly to create training and validation. Catch was normalized into Catch per unit Effort (kg h^?1). Generalized additive modelling was performed on training data and then tested on validation data. Suitable ranges of SST, CC, SSHa and PAR for different species distributions were derived and integrated to predict their spatial distributions. Results indicated good match between predicted and actual catch. Monthly probability maps of predicted habitat areas coincide with high catch of the particular month for the study period.  相似文献