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A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters. 相似文献
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The distribution and geochemical composition of suspended-particulate matter (SPM) in the East China Sea (ECS) were investigated
during the summer period of high continental runoff to elucidate SPM sources, distribution and cross-shelf transport. The
spatial variability of SPM distribution (0.3–6.5 mg l−1) and geochemical composition (POC, Al, Si, Fe, Mn, Ca, Mg and K) in the ECS was pronounced during summer when the continental
fluxes of freshwater and terrestrial materials were highest during the year. Under the influences of Changjiang runoff, Kuroshio
intrusion, surface production and bottom resuspension, the distribution generally showed strong gradients decreasing seaward
for both biogenic and lithogenic materials. Particulate organic carbon was enriched in surface water (mean ∼18%) due to the
influence of biological productivity, and was diluted by resuspended and/or laterally-transported materials in bottom water
(mean 9.4%). The abundance of lithogenic elements (Al, Si, Fe, Mn) increased toward the bottom, and the distribution correlations
were highly significant. Particulate CaCO3 distribution provided evidence that the SPM of the bottom water in the northern part of the study area was likely mixed with
sediments originally derived from Huanghe. A distinct benthic nepheloid layer (BNL) was present in all seaward transects of
the ECS shelf. Sediment resuspension may be caused by tidal fluctuation and other forcing and be regarded as the principal
agent in the formation of BNL. This BNL was likely responsible for the transport of biogenic and lithogenic particles across
or along the ECS shelf. Total inventories of SPM, POC and PN are 46, 2.8 and 0.4 Tg, respectively, measured over the total
area of 0.45 × 106 km2 of the ECS shelf. Their mean residence times are about 27, 13 and 11 days, respectively. The inventory of SPM in the water
column was higher in the northernmost and southernmost transects and lower in the middle transects, reflecting the influences
of terrestrial inputs from Changjiang and/or resuspended materials from Huanghe deposits in the north and perhaps from Minjiang
and/or Taiwan’s rivers in the south. The distribution and transport patterns of SPM and geochemical elements strongly indicate
that continental sources and cross-shelf transport modulate ECS particulate matter in summer. 相似文献
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Lale BALAS 《中国海洋工程》2001,(4):565-578
The circulation pattern and the pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay are simulated by the developed three-dimensional baroclinic model. The Marmaris Bay is located at the Mediterranean Sea coast of Turkey. Since the sp ring tidal range is typically 20- 30 cm, the dominant forcing for the circulation and water exchange is due to the wind action. In the Marmaris Bay, there is sea outfall discharging directly into the bay. and that threats the bay water quality significantly. The current patterns in the vicinity of the outfall have been observed by tracking drogues which are moved by currents at different water depths. In the simulations of pollutant transport, the coliforms-counts is used as the tracer. The model provides realistic predictions for the circulation and pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay. The transport model component predictions well agree with the results of a laboratory model study. 相似文献
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Evaluating fishery impacts using metrics of community structure 总被引:8,自引:14,他引:8
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贡湖及其相关水域风生流模拟研究 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
在太湖风生流的数值模拟研究的基础上,设计模拟贡湖及其相关水域风生流的套网格数值模式。应用该模式研究不同风情下,梅梁湖,太湖主体湖水对贡湖的影响。 相似文献