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151.
Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
152.
Improvement of Nakamura technique by singular spectrum analysis 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
Roberto Carniel Fausto Barazza Paolo Pascolo 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2006,26(1):55-63
In this work we investigate the application of the Singular Spectrum Analysis to improve Nakamura Technique. The SSA has a wide and multidisciplinary range of applications; it allows a time series to be decomposed into different components, e.g. the signal itself, as well as various noise components, which can be subsequently removed from the data. Removal of the minor component of the data can lead to significant improvements in the identification of the system. In this paper the use of SSA Technique allows to optimize the signal to noise ratio before computing the classical Nakamura spectral ratios. A number of typical applications are also presented. 相似文献
153.
青岛市崂山区地质灾害气象预报预警 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
本文基于地质灾害递进分析理论与方法,进行了崂山区地质灾害气象预报预警探讨。崂山区地质灾害及隐患点发育的类型主要是滑坡、崩塌和泥石流。据调查,区内地质灾害及隐患点83处,其中已发生灾害17处,新的灾害隐患66处。崂山区地质灾害基础因子主要是地形坡度、地质构造、地面高程、岩体、植被、水系和坡形,诱发因:于主要是大气降水、人类工程活动和地震。大气降水是变化频繁的敏感因子。通过分析崂山区日降水量、持续累计降水量与地质环境条件、地质灾害发生频率、发生时间的关系,结合国内其他地区的分析结论,初步选定崂山区地质灾害预报预警降水量临界值,在此基础上建立了崂山区地质灾害预报预警信息系统,并以图形和表格两种形式在网上对外发布成功。通过回访调查,预报基本准确,服务效果明显,在很大程度上减轻和避免了灾害损失,有效地保护了人民生命财产的安全,促进了经济、社会的持续、稳定、健康发展。 相似文献
154.
155.
国内外气溶胶观测网络发展进展及相关科学计划 总被引:16,自引:6,他引:16
气溶胶是气候变化研究中的一个极大的不确定性因素,国内外在此方面开展了大量的观测和科学研究。本文首先对当前全球两大气溶胶观测网络,世界气象组织(WMO)的全球大气观测计划(GAW)和气溶胶自动观测网(AERONET)的组织、规模、设备、数据和气溶胶网络的规范作了介绍,并对近年来国际上的重大气溶胶科学计划的目标、实验方法、步骤作了介绍,说明观测网络的重要性。在此基础上对中国气溶胶观测网络的地位做了分析,并指出其在正在开展的中国气溶胶科学研究中的重要性。 相似文献
156.
157.
John Douglas Didier Bertil Agathe Roullé Pascal Dominique Philippe Jousset 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(3):271-299
Strong-motion networks have been operating in the Caribbean region since the 1970s, however, until the mid-1990s only a few analogue stations were operational and the quantity of data recorded was very low. Since the mid-1990s, digital accelerometric networks have been established on islands within the region. At present there are thought to be about 160 stations operating in this region with a handful on Cuba, 65 on the French Antilles (mainly Guadeloupe and Martinique), eight on Jamaica, 78 on Puerto Rico (plus others on adjacent islands) and four on Trinidad.After briefly summarising the available data from the Caribbean islands, this article is mainly concerned with analysing the data that has been recorded by the networks operating on the French Antilles in terms of their distribution with respect to magnitude, source-to-site distance, focal depth and event type; site effects at certain stations; and also with respect to their predictability by ground motion estimation equations developed using data from different regions of the world. More than 300 good quality triaxial acceleration time-histories have been recorded on Guadeloupe and Martinique at a large number of stations from earthquakes with magnitudes larger than 4.8, however, most of the records are from considerable source-to-site distances. From the data available it is found that many of the commonly-used ground motion estimation equations for shallow crustal earthquakes poorly estimate the observed ground motions on the two islands; ground motions on Guadeloupe and Martinique have smaller amplitudes and are more variable than expected. This difference could be due to regional dependence of ground motions because of, for example, differing tectonics or crustal structures or because the ground motions so far recorded are, in general, from smaller earthquakes and greater distances than the range of applicability of the investigated equations. 相似文献
158.
Juan Carlos Bergmann 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,119(1):171-179
Precision measurements indicate that the stability capping of the neutral planetary boundary layer (PBL) that leads to a reduced
PBL height is caused by the very stable upper part of the PBL, rather than by an overlying inversion. Radiative processes
related to liquid water in boundary-layer clouds seem to play the key role for the formation of the stable upper PBL. The
famous Leipzig Profile – generally considered as an example of a neutral PBL – has been included in Hess’s analysis because
its PBL height is considerably lower than the ca. 3000 m to be expected by numerical models in truly neutral conditions. An
analysis of the original observations reveals that the Leipzig PBL was stable and that it can be consistently treated as a
‘normal’ stable PBL with a height of ca. 700 m. A further finding is that the super-geostrophic PBL wind speed maxima predicted
by almost all models are not observed in near-steady-state conditions. For the ‘ranking’ of analytical models versus numerical
models, the comparisons with measurements show that the analytical models perform comparably well and even partially better
than the numerical models. 相似文献
159.
Saturation of the Large Aperture Scintillometer 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
W. Kohsiek W. M. L. Meijninger H. A. R. Debruin F. Beyrich 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,121(1):111-126
The saturation aspects of a large aperture (0.3 m) scintillometer operating over a 10-km path were investigated. Measurements were made over mainly forested, hilly terrain with typical maximum sensible heat fluxes of 300–400 W m −2, and over flat terrain with mainly grass, and typical maximum heat fluxes of 100–150 W m−2. Scintillometer-based fluxes were compared with eddy-correlation observations. Two different schemes for calculating the reduction of scintillation caused by saturation were applied: one based on the work of Hill and Clifford, the other based on Frehlich and Ochs. Without saturation correction, the scintillation fluxes were lower than the eddy-correlation fluxes; the saturation correction according to Frehlich and Ochs increased the scintillometer fluxes to an unrealistic level. Correcting the fluxes after the theory of the Hill and Clifford gave satisfying results 相似文献
160.