Efficient risk assessment of lifeline networks under spatially correlated ground motions using selective recursive decomposition algorithm     

Hyun-Woo Lim  Junho Song 《地震工程与结构动力学》2012,41(13):1861-1882

For effective hazard mitigation planning and prompt-but-prudent post-disaster responses, it is essential to evaluate the reliability of infrastructure networks accurately and efficiently. A nonsimulation-based algorithm, termed as a recursive decomposition algorithm (RDA), was recently proposed to identify disjoint cut sets and link sets and to compute the network reliability. This paper introduces a ‘selective’ RDA, which preferentially identifies critical disjoint cut sets and link sets to calculate the probabilities of network disconnection events with a significantly reduced number of identified sets. To this end, the original RDA is improved by replacing the shortest path algorithm with an algorithm that identifies the most reliable path, and by using a graph decomposition scheme based on the probabilities associated with the subgraphs. The critical sets identified by the algorithm are also used to compute conditional probability-based importance measures that quantify the relative importance of network components by their contributions to network disconnection events. This paper also introduces a risk assessment framework for lifeline networks based on the use of the selective RDA, which can consider both interevent and intraevent uncertainties of spatially correlated ground motions. The risk assessment framework and the selective RDA are demonstrated by a hypothetical network example, and the gas and water transmission networks of Shelby County in Tennessee, USA. The examples show that the proposed framework and the selective RDA greatly improve efficiency of risk assessment of complex lifeline networks, which are characterized by a large number of components, complex network topology, and statistical dependence between component failures. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The response of braided planform configuration to flow variations,bed reworking and vegetation: the case of the Tagliamento River,Italy     

Matilde Welber  Walter Bertoldi  Marco Tubino 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2012,37(5):572-582

Morphological features of braided rivers (bars, channels and pools) experience major changes in area, shape and spatial distribution as a response to (i) the pulsation of discharge during a flood and (ii) the bed evolution induced by floods. In this work, at‐a‐station relationships between water level and planform configuration were investigated on the Tagliamento River, a large gravel‐bed braided river in northeast Italy, over a 2‐year study period comprising three bankfull events and several small‐to‐medium floods. The analysis was performed on two 1‐km‐long reaches, characterized by different riparian vegetation cover. Ground‐based images with an hourly temporal resolution were acquired using software‐controlled, digital cameras. Bars, channels, pools and vegetated patches were manually digitized on more than 100 rectified images. Sequences of constant‐level images spanning the study period were used to quantify the impact of floods on the stability of at‐a‐station relationships and on the turnover rate of water bodies. The analysis shows that wetted area increased almost linearly with water level in both reaches. The average number of branches per cross‐section peaked at intermediate flow levels, increasing from 2 at low flow up to 6–7. The number of branches displayed the largest fluctuations over time, with significant changes produced also by moderate floods. Turnover rates were high in both reaches, with more than 30% of wetted areas at low flow converting into bare gravel in less than 2 months. Vegetation colonization was found to limit the mobility of the low flow channels over time by concentrating the flow in fewer, deeper anabranches. The number of channels per cross‐section was 30–40% less in the vegetated reach and the proportion of low flow water bodies in the same position after 12 months increased from 3% to 14%. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

汶川地震强地面运动模拟   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

常莹  周红  俞言祥 《地震学报》2012,34(2):224-234

基于确定性震源模型的方法主要用于计算低频(11 Hz)地震动常用经验格林函数法或随机方法,对低频地震动模拟不够准确．本文在确定性震源模型方法基础上,尝试采用分解给定的震源模型的方法来模拟宽频带(0.1——10 Hz)强地面运动,即采用分级离散断层面和分解断层面破裂单元上升时间的方法,增加震源时间函数中的高频信号,从而避免了对地震记录丰富程度和准确性的依赖．文中模拟计算了汶川MS8.0地震在8个地震观测台的地震动,将模拟结果和观测记录进行了加速度时程曲线和傅里叶振幅谱的对比分析．对比结果显示,模拟估计的地震动峰值加速度和持续时间与观测记录的数据基本在plusmn;50%的精度范围内相同,傅里叶振幅谱显示模拟结果有得到10 Hz左右的高频成分. 四川盆地中的台站模拟结果高频衰减比观测记录要快,原因是模拟过程没有考虑场地效应.对强地震动模拟还是要综合考虑震源、传播路径和场地的影响．研究结果表明,此改变震源输入的确定性方法可应用于模拟近断层宽频强地面运动．   相似文献   

Effects of rainfall on soil moisture and water movement in a subalpine dark coniferous forest in southwestern China   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Qing Xu  Shirong Liu  Xianchong Wan  Chunqian Jiang  Xianfang Song  Jingxin Wang 《水文研究》2012,26(25):3800-3809

Water content and movement in soil profile and hydrogen isotope composition (δD) of soil water, rainwater, and groundwater were examined in a subalpine dark coniferous forest in the Wolong National Nature Reserve in Sichuan, China, following rainfall events in 2003–2004. Light rainfall increased water content in the litter and at soil depth of 0–80 cm, but the increased soil water was lost in several days. Heavy rainfall increased soil water content up to 85% at depths of 0–40 cm. Following the light rainfall in early spring, the δD of water from the litter, humus, illuvial, and material layers decreased first and then gradually reached the pre‐rainfall level. In summer, light rainfall reached the litter humus, and illuvial layer, but did not hit the material layer. Heavy rainfall affected δD of water in all layers. The δD of soil interflow slightly fluctuated with rainfall events. The δD of shallow groundwater did not differ significantly among all rainfall events. Light rainfall altered the shape of δD profile curve of water in the upper layer of soil, whereas heavy rainfall greatly affected the shape of δD profile curve of water in all soil layers. Following the heavy rainfall, preferential flow initially occurred through macropores, decayed plant roots, and rocks at different depths of soil profile. With continuing rainfall, the litter and surface soil were nearly saturated or fully saturated, and infiltration became homogeneous and plug‐like. Forest soil water, particularly in deeper soil profile, was slightly affected by rainfall and, thus, can be a source of water supply for regional needs, particularly during dry seasons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Characterization of hydraulic suitability of Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis) spawning habitat in the Yangtze River   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yuankun Wang  Ziqiang Xia  Dong Wang 《水文研究》2012,26(23):3489-3498

Hydrodynamic flow fields affect the ecological processes such as the water diversity and the distribution of organisms. Understanding the hydrodynamic and ecological processes is critical for the restoration and protection of especially fragile ecological habitats in river systems. This study uses turbulent flow to characterize the ecological behaviour of Chinese Sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis) in the Yangtze River. The Delft3D‐Flow model, which is first validated with field‐measured data, is used to simulate the flow field within spawning habitats of Chinese Sturgeon, downstream of Gezhouba Dam. The model‐simulated turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and its distribution pattern are then used to characterize the hydraulic environment of the fish's spawning habitat. For the spawning habitat, downstream of Gezhouba Dam, the lower limit of TKE for the Chinese Sturgeon egg mass field is 0.025 m²/s², which occurs at a velocity less than 1.7 m/s. Chinese Sturgeon prefers habitats with TKE range of 0.010 ~ 0.015 m²/s² for resting. This suggests that discharge regimes provide the basis for ecological regulation of the Three Gorges Reservoir and the scientific reference for river management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

破坏性地震的应急通信需求与应用初探   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵恒  白仙富  张方浩  苗云西  陈征山 《地震研究》2012,35(1):139-144

通过分析MS5～6、MS7～8及MS8以上地震案例造成的地面通信受损规律,剖析不同震级地震应急通信的主体通讯业务,针对目前地震行业的通信技术系统现状,探讨了地震应急通信开展方式。  相似文献   

震后城市地震动场快速评估方法——以福州盆地为例     

丁海平  卜超鹏  杨朝辉 《地震工程与工程振动》2012,32(1):11-15

震后灾情的快速获取是灾后应急的基础,传统的方法是根据现场调查结果决定应急方案。受灾程度的分布常以烈度分布图描述,而烈度又与加速度峰值密切相关。本文提出了一种震后地震动场分布快速评估的方法。该方法将主要依据灾区基岩台站的实时强震记录(无强震记录也行)和该地区的加速度衰减关系,再结合该地区各类场地的地震动放大因子,则可快速估计该地区地震动场分布,从而确定灾情,为政府的应急决策提供依据。  相似文献   

地下结构抗震计算地基弹簧系数取值方法研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

李英民  王璐  刘阳冰  刘立平 《地震工程与工程振动》2012,32(1):106-113

荷载-结构模型是地下结构抗震计算中常采用的模型,模型中地基弹簧系数的确定是关键。为了简便、可靠地计算地基弹簧系数,在已有基床系数计算公式的基础上,建立了地基弹簧系数的经验计算公式,以有限元分析结果为数据基础,对公式的系数进行拟合,将公式拓展用于成层土体。选取算例验证了建议公式的合理性和准确性,分别采用建议公式、日本抗震准则公式以及有限元法计算了某地铁区间站结构的地基弹簧系数,并对在此基础上计算所得的地震作用下结构的内力进行了对比分析。  相似文献   

江南古陆变质基底地层年代的修正和武陵运动构造意义   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

高林志  丁孝忠  张传恒  陆松年  刘燕学  庞维华 《火山地质与矿产》2012,(2):71-76

江南古陆变质基底的研究中,最突出的基础地质问题依然是地层年代的精确标定。地层年代标定涉及到成矿地层的划分和对比及其构造演化的时限,也直接影响层控矿床找矿中涉及的基础地质问题。在最新的中国地层年表中,前寒武纪地层对比和构造背景解释已发生重大变化。本文依据扬子块体和华夏块体新元古代地层中最新的系列锆石U—Pb测年结果,初步揭示“江南古陆”变质基底地层火山事件和分布范围。结合全球格林威尔造山运动基本特征,对江南古陆变质基底地层年代的修正将有利于重新厘定江南造山带的成矿背景,提供层控矿床基础年代地层资料,为新的矿产资源大调查服务。  相似文献   

南海北部东沙运动的构造特征及动力学机制探讨   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

赵淑娟  吴时国  施和生  董冬冬  陈端新  王莹 《地球物理学进展》2012,27(3):1008-1019

南海北部陆缘在南海扩张结束后发生了一次重要的构造运动—东沙运动.因前人对其研究较少,目前对其发生时间、影响范围和形成机制等都存在较大的争议.通过对东沙海区及其邻区新近纪地层二维、三维地震资料的详细解释,确定了东沙运动发生在晚中新世晚期,并在晚中新世末/早上新世初(5.5Ma)停止活动.东沙运动主要波及东沙隆起和潮汕坳陷地区,构造上主要表现为断块升降,其中隆起区沉积物遭受剥蚀,造成中新世及部分上新世地层的缺失.这次运动还形成了大量次级的NW-NWW向张性、张扭性断裂,构造运动整体上具有东强西弱的特点.东沙运动可能与新近纪以来菲律宾海板块持续向NWW方向运动导致的吕宋岛弧与欧亚大陆在9～6Ma期间开始发生的弧陆碰撞有关.同时,由于南海向马尼拉海沟下的俯冲及洋壳的冷却沉降作用,南海北部陆缘处于拉张环境,岩浆底侵到下地壳底部形成高速层,破坏了该区域的地壳均衡,从而造成上部地壳的隆升.  相似文献