Combined analysis of precipitation and water deficit for drought hazard assessment     

Tamara Tokarczyk  Wiwiana Szalińska 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(9):1675-1689

Abstract

The combined analysis of precipitation and water scarcity was done with the use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), developed as a monthly, two-variable SPI-SRI indicator to identify different classes of hydrometeorological conditions. Stochastic analysis of a long-term time series (1966–2005) of monthly SPI-SRI indicator values was performed using a first-order Markov chain model. This provided characteristics of regional features of drought formation, evolution and persistence, as well as tools for statistical long-term drought hazard prediction. The study was carried out on two subbasins of the Odra River (Poland) of different orography and land use: the mountainous Nysa K?odzka basin and the lowland, agricultural Prosna basin. Classification obtained with the SPI-SRI indicator was compared with the output from the NIZOWKA model that provided identification of hydrological drought events including drought duration and deficit volume. Severe and long-duration droughts corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 3 (dry meteorological and dry hydrological), while severe but short-term droughts (lasting less than 30 days) corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 4 (wet meteorological and dry hydrological). The results confirm that, in Poland, meteorologically dry conditions often shift to hydrologically dry conditions within the same month, droughts rarely last longer than 2 months and two separate drought events can be observed within the same year.  相似文献   

Wave-induced drift of large floating sheets     

K. H. Christensen  J. E. Weber 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(6):433-443

In this article we study the wave-induced drift of large, flexible shallow floating objects, referred to as sheets. When surface waves propagate through a sheet, they provide a mean stress on the sheet, resulting in a mean drift. In response, the sheet generates an Ekman current. The drift velocity of the sheet is determined by (i) the wave-induced stress, (ii) the viscous stress due to the Ekman current, and (iii) the Coriolis force. The sheet velocity and the current beneath the sheet are determined for constant and depth-varying eddy viscosities.  相似文献   

基于时间序列的InSAR相干性量级估计   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

蒋弥  丁晓利  李志伟  汪驰升  朱武  柯灵红 《地球物理学报》2013,56(3):799-811

本文提出了一种适用于InSAR数据处理的自适应相干性量级估计方法,该方法能够满足复信号随机平稳的假设前提,并兼顾运算效率与估计精度.此方法生成的相干图具有很好的分布特征,避免了影像空间分辨率的损失.提出的算法分为两个步骤:(1)根据地物后向散射特性,对时间序列SAR影像进行聚类分析,选择具有同分布的样本,保证SAR影像质地平稳条件;(2)对干涉图进行条纹频率估计,采用极大似然(ML)条纹频率估计方法去除系统相位引起的复信号非平稳性,并根据Cramer-Rao边界条件改善条纹频率的估计精度.以美国南加州洛杉矶地区的ENVISAT ASAR数据集为例,本文将新方法与现有方法进行了量化分析.结果表明,较传统方法而言,基于时间序列的相干性估计方法能够得到更可靠、精度更高、空间特征更鲜明的干涉相干图.  相似文献   

基于辛算法模拟探地雷达在复杂地电模型中的传播   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

方宏远  林皋 《地球物理学报》2013,56(2):653-659

近年来,探地雷达(GPR)凭借其快速、高效、无破损等特点,已经广泛应用于浅地层目标探测中.数值模拟是研究探地雷达电磁波在地下结构中传播规律的有效手段.辛算法是一种保持Hamilton系统总能量不变的时域数值计算方法.本文提出了基于一阶显式辛分块龙格库塔方法的探地雷达数值模拟方法.通过对比本文算法与时域有限差分方法计算结果可知,在同等计算精度下,本文算法可以节省25%的计算时间.并基于本文算法对两个复杂GPR模型进行正演模拟,得到模拟GPR探测wiggle图,这有助于更好的理解和分析实测雷达数据.  相似文献   

Locating Convection in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: A Gis-Based Analysis of Radar Reflectivities and Comparison to Lightning-Based Observations     

《自然地理学》2013,34(5):385-406

Researchers have utilized radar reflectivity returns and lightning flashes separately and together to locate convection with tropical cyclones (TCs). Most studies utilizing both datasets have examined TCs over the ocean, while landfall observations have been limited to a few TCs. This study employs a GIS to delineate regions of high radar reflectivity values within 45 landfalling TCs. The percentage of convective regions contained within each quadrant placed relative to storm motion and deep-layer vertical wind shear is calculated. These percentages are then compared to those from previous studies of quadrant-based lightning flash locations. Results indicate that the GIS-based radar analysis may be identifying TC regions that are electrically active. Both the radar- and lightning-based analyses show that convection shifts from the right to the front of the storm as forward velocity increases. Convection is located left of the shear vector when storm motion is 45-135° counterclockwise from the shear vector, and downshear when shear-minus-motion angles are 315-45°. Additionally, storms that became extratropical within 72 hours of landfall had more convection forward of the circulation center and left of the shear vector, and may produce less lightning than the remaining TCs.  相似文献   

Middle–Late Holocene Paleoclimate and Weathering History in the Norra Storfjället Mountains,Sweden: Deglacial Record and Soil Stratigraphy Applied to Neoglaciation in Lower Latitudes     

William C. Mahaney  Volli Kalm 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2013,95(2):145-158

The retreat record of the Stabre Glacier into the Norra Storfjället mountains, after separation from the massive Tärnaån Glacier at some undetermined time in the Atlantic Chron, is documented by recessional moraines in the foreland. While poorly constrained by radiometric dating, the age of the middle group of moraines averages out to less than 4000 cal ¹⁴C yr BP, the older moraine group probably of Late Atlantic age, with the youngest deposits of Little Ice Age (LIA). Soils/paleosols range from Entisols (youngest) and Inceptisols (middle group) to mature Spodosols (outer group), existing either as single‐story profiles or within pedostratigraphic columns, buried pedons either surfaced with weathered glacial or mass wasted deposits. Some profiles exhibit convoluted properties which could place them in the Cryosolic order. The physico‐mineral‐chemical properties of soils/paleosols in recessional deposits across this sequence provide weathering indices over the mid to Late Holocene in the Swedish sub‐Arctic climate. It is likely the middle group of deposits represents stillstand of the retreating glacier offset by climatic deterioration with the onset of Early Neoglacial climate which altered the glacial mass balance, at least until termination of the LIA. Correlation to other alpine areas in the middle and tropical latitudes with similar records is attempted and discussed. While the Stabre Glacier disappeared after the LIA, the nearby Tärna Glacier remains extant on the land surface, a presumed result of slight elevation differences between the two cirques which affects storm tracks and resultant variations in glacial mass balances.  相似文献   

利用船测数据以及Landsat-7 ETM+影像评估南极海冰区AMSR-E海冰密集度   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

席颖  孙波  李鑫 《遥感学报》2013,17(3):514-526

利用第26次中国南极科学考察期间收集的海冰密集度船基观测资料以及由Landsat-7 ETM+得到的海冰密集度来验证AMSR-E南极海冰区海冰密集度产品的精度。AMSR-E海冰密集度与船基目视观测的海冰密集度存在着一定的线性关系(R²=0.816), 但两者匹配得并不是很好。与ETM+海冰密集度相比,AMSR-E数据趋向于低估海冰密集度,在25景晴空条件下的ETM+影像中,平均海冰密集度偏差(AMSR-E海冰密集度-ETM+海冰密集度)从-5.33%到-21.5%,而相应的均方根误差RMSE (Root Mean Squared Errors)从13.7%到33.8%。依据Landsat-7 ETM+ 海冰分类,AMSR-E数据海冰密集度最大的误差产生于新冰区。  相似文献   

反射率因子和径向速度共同约束反演多普勒雷达风场   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

韩丰  魏鸣  李南  常亚楠 《遥感学报》2013,17(3):578-589

多普勒雷达可以提供降水回波区的风场信息。为了充分运用雷达资料分析中小尺度天气过程,本文假设反射率因子在短时间内的运动满足拉格朗日守恒,提出了采用连续两次的反射率因子回波和径向速度数据共同约束的方法来反演风场,在反演过程中避免了对径向速度的分布进行假设。针对连续两个时次之间反射率回波运动中产生的不同程度的误差做了模拟风场试验,结果表明,当回波运动随机误差不超过40%时,反演结果较为可靠。另外,本文还利用此风场反演方法进行两次中尺度天气过程的实例分析。结果表明,该方法反演的风场与实际风场结构相符,具有一定的应用价值。  相似文献   

天气雷达站址选择的有效地理视距分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

高飞 《测绘科学》2013,38(3):203-204

本文在详细介绍了雷达遮蔽角图和雷达等射束高度图的制作原理和方法的基础上,分析了天气雷达的有效地理视距,开发了天气雷达有效地理视距分析系统。该系统能自动绘制雷达遮蔽角图和等射束高度图,并能对天气雷达候选站址的有效地理视距进行分析,这能为寻求天气雷达最佳候选站址带来方便。  相似文献   

Characteristics of Radar Echo Parameters and Microphysical Structure Simulation of a Short-Time Heavy Precipitation Supercell     

赵桂香  王一颉  连志鸾 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(4):388-404

By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1o×1o reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper presents the structural characteristics and physical processes of a short-time heavy precipitation supercell that occurred in the squall line process in Shanxi Province on 24 June 2020. The results show that this squall line event occurred in front of a surface cold front, combined with infiltration of low-level cold air and continuous increase of near-surface humidity in the afternoon. The surface mesoscale convergence line and mesoscale dew point front contributed to the development and systemization of the squall line by a large degree. The short-time extremely heavy precipitation in Pingshun County was caused by the development of a supercell from thunderstorm cells on the front side of the squall line. The characteristics of sharp increase in vertical integral liquid water content, persistent increase in reflectivity factor and continuous rise in the echo top height appeared about 23 min earlier than the severe precipitation, which has qualitative indicating significance for the nowcasting of short-time heavy precipitation. A quantitative analysis of the radar echo parameters suggests that the “sudden drop”of FV40 was a precursor signal of cells’coalescence and rapid development to the mature stage. The areal change of the echo core at the 6 km height was highly subject to the merging and developing of cells, the rapid change of hydrometeor particles in clouds and the precipitation intensity. Changes in the cross-sectional area of convective cells at different heights can indirectly reflect the changes of liquid particles and ice particles in clouds, which is indicatively meaningful for predicting the coalescing and developing-to-maturing of cells and heavy precipitation 30-45 min earlier. A comprehensive echo parameter prediction model constructed by the random forest principle can predict the magnitude of short-time heavy precipitation 40-50 min in advance. Numerical simulation reveals that large amounts of water vapor existed in the near-surface atmosphere, and that the cells rapidly obtained moisture from the ambient atmosphere and developed rapidly through maternal feeding. The cold cloud zone was narrow, upright and had a high stretch height. The upward motion in clouds was strong and deep, and very rich in liquid water content. The graupel particles had a large vertical distribution range, the coexistence area of graupel and snow was large, the height of raindrops was close to the surface with a wide horizontal scale, and the precipitation efficiency was high. These may be the important elements responsible for the occurrence of the short-time heavy precipitation that exceeded historical extreme values. On the basis of the above analyses, a comprehensive parameter (CP) prediction model is worked out, which can estimate the developing trend of supercells and the intensity of short-time heavy precipitation about 1 h in advance.  相似文献