台湾地形对台风Meranti(1010)经过海峡地区时迅速增强的影响研究   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

薛霖  李英  许映龙  王蕾  戴高菊 《大气科学》2015,39(4):789-801

台风在趋近大陆过程中强度一般衰减, 但Meranti(1010)北上进入台湾海峡过程中却迅速加强, 且在登陆福建时达到最强。采用中国气象局台风资料、NCEP GFS 0.5°×0.5°再分析资料及台湾雷达资料, 结合中尺度数值模式WRF(The Weather Research and Forecasting Model)开展台湾地形敏感性试验, 研究Meranti进入台湾海峡过程中的结构变化及迅速加强机理。结果表明:台湾地形是Meranti迅速加强的一个重要影响因子。Meranti北上过程中, 一方面通过台湾岛地形分流作用及其背风坡效应在台湾海峡内诱生中尺度涡旋, 形成正负相间的涡度分布, 激发出与台风相关的扰动波列。地形强迫抬升及扰动波列可加强垂直运动和积云对流, 有利于台风对流发展。另一方面, 台湾地形还通过改变环境气流使台风高空辐散场加强, 环境风垂直切变减小, 形成有利于台风发展的环流背景。比较不同高度台湾地形试验中台风动能收支发现, 台湾地形激发的扰动波列和积云对流增强了次网格尺度系统与台风间能量的交换, 成为Meranti登陆前迅速加强的主要动能源。  相似文献   

福建省热带气旋暴雨突然增幅特征分析     

蔡义勇  王宏  郑秋萍 《湖北气象》2015,34(1)

利用2007—2013年福建省区域自动站和基本气象站小时降水观测资料,确定精细时空尺度上热带气旋暴雨突然增幅的阈值标准,分析暴雨突然增幅的时空分布特征及其与同期热带气旋之间的关系。结果表明:满足1 h、3 h和6 h暴雨突然增幅的热带气旋个例数随时间分辨率的降低而明显减少;3 h突增个例数主要出现在6—10月,且个例数和突增次数年分布总体呈上升趋势,突增次数日变化呈现"三峰型",高值区位于17—20时;暴雨突然增幅的热带气旋大多数在福建中南部沿海登陆,且不同的热带气旋中,强度较弱时发生突增次数较多,极值最大;暴雨突然增幅大多数发生在热带气旋登陆后24 h、距中心400 km内、西南方向,与登陆路径有关。对比分析了热带气旋登陆福建前后暴雨突然增幅的特征,发现登陆中部的热带气旋个数最多、暴雨突增次数也最多;热带气旋登陆后暴雨突增次数明显比登陆前多。  相似文献   

南印度洋热带气旋快速增强事件气候特征及其年际变率     

汪浩  王静  郑佳喻 《热带海洋学报》2022,41(1):94-105

利用美国联合台风预警中心的热带气旋最佳路径数据集、美国国家海洋和大气管理局的扩展重构海表温度数据、全球海洋数据同化系统的温度、盐度数据及美国国家环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心的再分析资料, 分析了1981—2019年南印度洋热带气旋快速增强事件的气候特征和年际变率。结果表明, 南印度洋热带气旋快速增强事件产生频率呈现单峰分布, 主要产生在每年的12月至次年4月。南印度洋热带气旋增强事件的产生位置呈带状分布, 其中3个高值中心分别位于马达加斯加岛东北海域、南印度洋中部海域和澳大利亚西北海域, 这主要是由于热带气旋热潜和垂直风切变两个大尺度环境变量决定的。年际变率方面, 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动对南印度洋热带气旋增强事件产生频率的调制作用是不对称的, 厄尔尼诺年与拉尼娜年南印度洋热带气旋快速增强事件均减少, 但使其减少的物理机制不同。厄尔尼诺年, 热带气旋快速增强事件减少主要是较高的垂直风切变造成的; 拉尼娜年, 热带气旋快速增强事件减少主要是由于热带气旋热潜的降低, 而海表温度、垂直风切变和相对湿度也存在一定贡献。  相似文献   

Does smallholder maize intensification reduce deforestation? Evidence from Zambia     

《Global Environmental Change》2020

Increasing food production to meet growing demand while reducing tropical deforestation is a critical sustainability challenge. This is especially true in sub-Saharan Africa, which faces serious food insecurity issues and where smallholder farming is the main driver of forest conversion. Competing theories imply opposite predictions as to whether deforestation increases or decreases with smallholder agricultural intensification, which can improve food security by increasing crop yields per area cultivated. This research provides new empirical evidence on the association between deforestation and smallholders’ use of modern inputs, in particular inorganic fertilizer on maize and improved maize seeds, using Zambia as a case study. We analyze this association nationwide in a spatially disaggregated manner at the lowest administrative level using machine learning-based small area estimation, which makes use of detailed nationally representative surveys on smallholder farm households for 2011 and 2014, and census data to statistically predict modern inputs use country-wide for 2011, when average maize yields were 1.28 tons/ha. Then, we evaluate the association between improved maize seed and fertilizer inputs and subsequent deforestation, while controlling for key geospatial covariates. The results support the land-sparing hypothesis, finding that smallholder farmers’ use of improved maize seed is negatively associated with deforestation on non-acidic (pH ≥ 5.5) soils, an effect that is enhanced by complementary inorganic fertilizer use. Fertilizer use on its own, however, is weakly associated with increased deforestation. Sustainable intensification via use of improved seeds on adequately fertile soils and improving soil health appears compatible with reducing both deforestation and food insecurity.  相似文献   

Estimating the global potential of water harvesting from successful case studies     

《Global Environmental Change》2020

Water harvesting has been widely applied in different social-ecological contexts, proving to be a valuable approach to sustainable intensification of agriculture. Global estimates of the potential of water harvesting are generally based on purely biophysical assessments and mostly neglect the socioeconomic dimension of agriculture. This neglect becomes a critical factor for the feasibility and effectiveness of policy and funding efforts to mainstream this practice. This study uses archetype analysis to systematically identify social-ecological regions worldwide based on >160 successful cases of local water harvesting implementation. We delineate six archetypal regions which capture the specific social-ecological conditions of the case studies. The archetypes cover 19% of current global croplands with hotspots in large portions of East Africa and Southeast Asia. We estimate that the adoption of water harvesting in these cropland areas can increase crop production up to 60–100% in Uganda, Burundi, Tanzania and India. The results of this study can complement conventional biophysical analysis on the potential of these practices and guide policy development at global and regional scales. The methodological approach can be also replicated at finer scales to guide the improvement of rainfed agricultural.  相似文献   

东风和西风切变环境下西北太平洋热带气旋快速增强特征的对比   总被引：8，自引：6，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王伟  余锦华 《大气科学学报》2013,36(3):337-345

利用1980-2009年美国联合台风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC)整编的热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TC)最佳路径资料,定义西北太平洋TC 24 h强度变化达到总体样本96%累积概率的变化值,即35 kn作为TC快速增强的阈值。根据NCEP/NCAR资料将200~850 hPa之间 TC所处的环境纬向风切变(wind shear,WS)划分为东风切变(east wind shear,EWS)和西风切变(west wind shear,WWS)。对比了EWS和WWS环境下快速增强热带气旋(rapid intensification tropical cyclones,RITC)的统计和大尺度环境合成场特征,结果表明,近70%的TC快速增强发生在东风切变环境下。TC快速增强概率最高的月份在9月,初始强度区间为[65,75) kn。大的EWS下,850 hPa有来自南海地区的西南气流为RITC输送充沛水汽,500 hPa、200 hPa高压势力强但脊线位置偏北,RITC流出层温度低于-79 ℃,垂直结构上底层的辐合与高层的辐散也相对较强。大WWS下,850 hPa的水汽主要为来自西北太平洋的东南气流,500 hPa副热带高压断裂为几个分散的中心,200 hPa辐散相对较弱,RITC合成位置位于副热带高压西北侧的西风气流,流出层温度约-76 ℃。  相似文献   

变性台风Winnie(9711)环流中的锋生现象   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

李英  陈联寿  雷小途 《大气科学》2008,32(3):629-639

基于T106一日四次1.125°×1.125°格点资料, 采用非地转湿Ｑ矢量对登陆台风Winnie(9711)变性加强过程中环流内的锋生现象进行诊断分析。结果表明, Winnie变性加强与其环流内的中尺度锋生过程密切相关, 其低层环流中可发现包围台风中心的环状锋生现象。其中, 北侧锋带与西侧锋带在结构、性质上有所不同, 北侧锋具有暖锋特征, 而西侧锋具有冷锋特点。台风残余低压环流中心位于两条锋带的交汇处, 其变性加强过程类似于一个温带气旋在地面锋上的发展过程。Winnie变性加强过程中, 北侧暖锋锋生强, 锋面次级环流明显, 降水区主要出现在该锋带附近。西侧冷锋锋生弱, 无明显锋面次级环流, 降水不明显。强锋生区首先在台风上空高层产生, 随后增强下传, 加强了低层锋生过程。中低层锋生强度以及锋上垂直运动与凝结潜热作用有密切关系。  相似文献   

Paleoclimatic changes in southern Africa during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation: evidence from ODP Leg 175 Site 1085     

B. A. Christensen  J. L. Kalbas  M. Maslin  R. W. Murray 《Marine Geology》2002,180(1-4):117-131

Pliocene age sediments from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 175, Site 1085-A and B in the Cape Basin were analyzed to investigate the impact of the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (INHG) on the South Atlantic Benguela Current system from 4 to 2 Ma. Proxies for productivity (concentrations and mass accumulation rates of total organic carbon, carbon to nitrogen ratios, percent calcium carbonate, and percent biogenic silica) as well as weight percent sand (a proxy for preservation or winnowing) peak at 3.2, 3.0, 2.4, and 2.25 Ma. Normative calculations of allied trace and major elemental determinations indicate synchronous increases in productivity peaks, as well as high concentrations and accumulations of terrigenous sediments. Coeval increases in hemipelagic sedimentation and productivity indicators could be the result of enhanced eolian sedimentation resulting from strengthened winds, leading to elevated rates of upwelling and enhanced productivity. However, rapid burial, as indicated by high sedimentation rates, could also enhance preservation. The very high concentrations (>30%) and accumulations (up to 60 g/cm²/kyr) limit the likelihood that eolian sedimentation was the only transport mechanism, invoking an additional fluvial source. Rapid burial by either eolian or fluvial transport links these intervals of enhanced preservation and productivity with continental climate changes resulting from (1) increased winds and/or dust availability due to higher aridity in the Namibia/northern South Africa region; (2) lowered sea-level related to increased ice volume; (3) increased sediment load due to wetter conditions in the continental interior; or (4) some combination. Peaks at 3.2, 2.4 and 2.25 Ma are coincident with maximum precession, suggesting a link between hemipelagic sedimentation and enhanced monsoonal circulation over southern Africa. The Site 1085 sedimentary record during the INHG seems to be controlled by low-latitude processes linked to precession rather than hig-latitude processes.  相似文献   

Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

We explore how smallholder agricultural systems in the Kenyan highlands might intensify and/or diversify in the future under a range of socio-economic scenarios. Data from approximately 3000 households were analyzed and farming systems characterized. Plausible socio-economic scenarios of how Kenya might evolve, and their potential impacts on the agricultural sector, were developed with a range of stakeholders. We study how different types of farming systems might increase or diminish in importance under different scenarios using a land-use model sensitive to prices, opportunity cost of land and labour, and other variables. We then use a household model to determine the types of enterprises in which different types of households might engage under different socio-economic conditions. Trajectories of intensification, diversification, and stagnation for different farming systems are identified. Diversification with cash crops is found to be a key intensification strategy as farm size decreases and labour costs increase. Dairy expansion, while important for some trajectories, is mostly viable when land available is not a constraint, mainly due to the need for planting fodders at the expense of cropland areas. We discuss the results in relation to induced innovation theories of intensification. We outline how the methodology employed could be used for integrating global and regional change assessments with local-level studies on farming options, adaptation to global change, and upscaling of social, environmental and economic impacts of agricultural development investments and interventions.  相似文献   

Cultivated land change in the Belt and Road Initiative region   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Di Chen  Qiangyi Yu  Qiong Hu  Mingtao Xiang  Qingbo Zhou  Wenbin Wu 《地理学报(英文版)》2018,28(11):1580-1594

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)–a development strategy proposed by China – provides unprecedented opportunities for multi-dimensional communication and cooperation across Asia, Africa and Europe. In this study, we analyse the spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land in the BRI countries (64 in total) to better understand the land use status of China along with its periphery for targeting specific collaboration. We apply FAO statistics and GlobeLand30 (the world’s finest land cover data at a 30-m resolution), and develop three indicator groups (namely quantity, conversion, and utilization degree) for the analysis. The results show that cultivated land area in the BRI region increased 3.73×10⁴ km² between 2000 and 2010. The increased cultivated land was mainly found in Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, while the decreased cultivated land was mostly concentrated in China. Russia ranks first with an increase of 1.59×10⁴ km² cultivated land area, followed by Hungary (0.66×10⁴ km²) and India (0.57×104 km2). China decreased 1.95×10⁴ km² cultivated land area, followed by Bangladesh (–0.22×10⁴ km²) and Thailand (–0.22×10⁴ km²). Cultivated land was mainly transferred to/from forest, grassland, artificial surfaces and bare land, and transfer types in different regions have different characteristics: while large amount of cultivated land in China was converted to artificial surfaces, considerable forest was converted to cultivated land in Southeast Asia. The increase of multi-cropping index dominated the region except the Central and Eastern Europe, while the increase of fragmentation index was prevailing in the region except for a few South Asian countries. Our results indicate that the negative consequence of cultivated land loss in China might be underestimated by the domestic- focused studies, as none of its close neighbours experienced such obvious cultivated land losses. Nevertheless, the increased cultivated land area in Southeast Asia and the extensive cultivated land use in Ukraine and Russia imply that the regional food production would be greatly improved if China’ “Go Out policy” would help those countries to intensify their cultivated land use.  相似文献