Introduction to the Regional Coupled Model WRF4-LICOM: Performance and Model Intercomparison over the Western North Pacific     

Liwei ZOU  Tianjun ZHOU  Jianping TANG  Hailong LIU 《大气科学进展》2020,37(8):800-816

Regional coupled modeling is one of the frontiers of regional climate modeling, but intercomparison has not been well coordinated. In this study, a community regional climate model, WRF4, with a resolution of 15 km, was coupled with a high-resolution(0.1°) North Pacific Ocean model(LICOM_np). The performance of the regional coupled model,WRF4_LICOM, was compared to that of another regional coupled model, RegCM4_LICOM, which was a coupling of version 4 of the Regional Climate Model(RegCM4) with LICOM_np. The analysis focused on the 2005 western North Pacific summer monsoon rainfall. The results showed that the regional coupled models with either RegCM4 or WRF4 as their atmospheric model component simulated the broad features over the WNP reasonably well. Quantitative intercomparison of the regional coupled simulations exhibited different biases for different climate variables.RegCM4_LICOM exhibited smaller biases in its simulation of the averaged June–July–August SST and rainfall, while WRF4_LICOM better captured the tropical cyclone(TC) intensity, the percentage contributions of rainfall induced by TCs to the total rainfall, and the diurnal cycle of rainfall and stratiform percentages, especially over land areas. The different behaviors in rainfall simulated by the two models were partly ascribed to the behaviors in the simulated western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH). The stronger(weaker) WNPSH in WRF4_LICOM(RegCM4_LICOM) was driven by overestimated(underestimated) diabatic heating, which peaked at approximately 450 hPa over the region around the Philippines in association with different condensation–radiation processes. Coupling of WRF4 with LIOCM is a crucial step towards the development of the next generation of regional earth system models at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.  相似文献   

Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere models     

Emilia K. Jin  James L. Kinter III  B. Wang  C.-K. Park  I.-S. Kang  B. P. Kirtman  J.-S. Kug  A. Kumar  J.-J. Luo  J. Schemm  J. Shukla  T. Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(6):647-664

The overall skill of ENSO prediction in retrospective forecasts made with ten different coupled GCMs is investigated. The coupled GCM datasets of the APCC/CliPAS and DEMETER projects are used for four seasons in the common 22 years from 1980 to 2001. As a baseline, a dynamic-statistical SST forecast and persistence are compared. Our study focuses on the tropical Pacific SST, especially by analyzing the NINO34 index. In coupled models, the accuracy of the simulated variability is related to the accuracy of the simulated mean state. Almost all models have problems in simulating the mean and mean annual cycle of SST, in spite of the positive influence of realistic initial conditions. As a result, the simulation of the interannual SST variability is also far from perfect in most coupled models. With increasing lead time, this discrepancy gets worse. As one measure of forecast skill, the tier-1 multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts of NINO3.4 SST have an anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.86 at the month 6. This is higher than that of any individual model as well as both forecasts based on persistence and those made with the dynamic-statistical model. The forecast skill of individual models and the MME depends strongly on season, ENSO phase, and ENSO intensity. A stronger El Niño is better predicted. The growth phases of both the warm and cold events are better predicted than the corresponding decaying phases. ENSO-neutral periods are far worse predicted than warm or cold events. The skill of forecasts that start in February or May drops faster than that of forecasts that start in August or November. This behavior, often termed the spring predictability barrier, is in part because predictions starting from February or May contain more events in the decaying phase of ENSO.  相似文献   

Uncertainties in climate change prediction: El Niño-Southern Oscillation and monsoons     

Heiko Paeth  Anja Scholten  Petra Friederichs  Andreas Hense 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,60(3-4):265-288

The sensitivity of climate phenomena in the low latitudes to enhanced greenhouse conditions is a scientific issue of high relevance to billions of people in the poorest countries of the globe. So far, most studies dealt with individual model results. In the present analysis, we refer to 79 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from 12 different climate models under 6 different IPCC scenarios. The basic question is as to what extent various state-of-the-art climate models agree in predicting changes in the main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoon climates in South Asia and West Africa. The individual model runs are compared with observational data in order to judge whether the spatio-temporal characteristics of ENSO are well reproduced. The model experiments can be grouped into multi-model ensembles. Thus, climate change signals in the classical index time series, in the principal components and in the time series of interannual variability can be evaluated against the background of internal variability and model uncertainty.There are large differences between the individual model predictions until the end of the 21st century, especially in terms of monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The majority of the models tends to project La Niña-like anomalies in the SOI and an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation in India and West Africa. However, the response barely exceeds the level of natural variability and the systematic intermodel variations are larger than the impact of different IPCC scenarios. Nonetheless, there is one prominent climate change signal, which stands out from model variations and internal noise: All forced model experiments agree in predicting a substantial warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. This oceanic heating does not necessarily lead to a modification of ENSO towards more frequent El Niño and/or La Niña events. It simply represents a change in the background state of ENSO. Indeed, we did not find convincing multi-model evidence for a modification of the wavelet spectra in terms of ENSO or the monsoons. Some models suggest an intensification of the annual cycle but this signal is fairly model-dependent. Thus, large model uncertainty still exists with respect to the future behaviour of climate in the low latitudes. This has to be taken into account when addressing climate change signals in individual model experiments and ensembles.  相似文献   

Interannual variability of the sea surface salinity and its related freshwater flux in the tropical Pacific: A comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6          下载免费PDF全文

Hai Zhi  Yu Huang  Pengfei Lin  Shiwei Shi  Meng Dong 《大气和海洋科学快报》2022,15(4):100190

This paper assesses the interannual variabilities of simulated sea surface salinity (SSS) and freshwater flux (FWF) in the tropical Pacific from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The authors focus on comparing the simulated SSS and FWF responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from two generations of models developed by the same group. The results show that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models can perform well in simulating the spatial distributions of the SSS and FWF responses associated with ENSO, as well as their relationship. It is found that most CMIP6 models have improved in simulating the geographical distribution of the SSS and FWF interannual variability in the tropical Pacific compared to CMIP5 models. In particular, CMIP6 models have corrected the underestimation of the spatial relationship of the FWF and SSS variability with ENSO in the central-western Pacific. In addition, CMIP6 models outperform CMIP5 models in simulating the FWF interannual variability (spatial distribution and intensity) in the tropical Pacific. However, as a whole, CMIP6 models do not show improved skill scores for SSS interannual variability, which is due to their overestimation of the intensity in some models. Large uncertainties exist in simulating the interannual variability of SSS among CMIP5 and CMIP6 models and some improvements with respect to physical processes are needed.摘要通过比较CMIP5和CMIP6来自同一个单位两代模式模拟, 表明CMIP5和CMIP6均能较好地模拟出热带太平洋的海表盐度 (SSS) 和淡水通量 (FWF) 对ENSO响应的分布及其响应间的关系. 与CMIP5模式相比, 大部份CMIP6模式模拟的SSS和FWF年际变化分布均呈现改进, 特别是纠正了较低的中西太平洋SSS和FWF变化的空间关系. 但是, 整体上, CMIP6模式模拟的SSS年际变化技巧没有提高, 与SSS年际变率的强度被高估有关. CMIP5和CMIP6模式模拟SSS的年际变化还存在较大的不确定性, 在物理方面需要改进.  相似文献   

Measurement of gaseous HNO3 over the Atlantic Ocean     

T. H. Papenbrock  F. Stuhl  K. P. Müller  J. Rudolph 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1992,15(3-4):369-379

A latitudinal profile (30° W, from 30° N to 30° S) of mixing ratios of nitric acid and particulate nitrate was determined on the Atlantic Ocean during the Polarstern cruise ANT VII/1 from Bremerhaven, Germany, to Rio Grande, Brazil. The detection of HNO₃ was performed simultaneously by laser-photolysis fragment-fluorescence (LPFF) and by nylon filter packs. The detection limit was about 30 pptv for a signal accumulation time of 1 h for LPFF and about 5 pptv for the filters at a collection time of 4 h. In general, the mixing ratios of HNO₃ in the Northern Hemisphere were found to be significantly higher than those in the Southern Hemisphere. The Atlantic background concentrations frequently varied between 80 pptv and the detection limit. Larger deviations from this trend were found for the more northern latitudes and for episodes like crossings of exhaust plumes from ships or from continental pollutions sources.  相似文献   

Multi‐model ensemble prediction of terrestrial evapotranspiration across north China using Bayesian model averaging          下载免费PDF全文

Gaofeng Zhu  Xin Li  Kun Zhang  Zhenyu Ding  Tuo Han  Jinzhu Ma  Chunlin Huang  Jianhua He  Ting Ma 《水文研究》2016,30(16):2861-2879

Using high‐quality dataset from 12 flux towers in north China, the performance of four evapotranspiration (ET) models and the multi‐model ensemble approaches including the simple averaging (SA) and Bayesian model average (BMA) were systematically evaluated in this study. The four models were the single‐layer Penman–Monteith (P–M) model, the two‐layer Shuttleworthe–Wallace (S–W) model, the advection–aridity (A–A) model, and a modified Priestley–Taylor (PT‐JPL). Based on the mean value of Taylor skill (S) and the regression slope between measured and simulated ET values across all sites, the order of overall performance of the individual models from the best to the worst were: S–W (0.88, 0.87), PT‐JPL (0.80, 1.17), P–M (0.63, 1.73) and A–A (0.60, 1.68) [statistics stated as (Taylor skill, regression slope)]. Here, all models used the same values of parameters, LAI and fractional vegetation cover as well as the forcing meteorological data. Thus, the differences in model performance were mainly attributed to errors in model structure. To the ensemble approach, the BMA method has the advantage of generating more skillful and reliable predictions than the SA scheme. However, successful implementation of BMA requires accurate estimates of its parameters, and some degradation in performance were observed when the BMA parameters generated from the training period were used for the validation period. Thus, it is necessary to explore the seasonal variations of the BMA parameters according the different growth stages. Finally, the optimal conditional density function of half‐hourly ET approximated well by the double‐exponential distribution. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A new temperature based method to separate rain and snow   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Stefan W. Kienzle 《水文研究》2008,22(26):5067-5085

This paper presents the development and testing of a new method to estimate daily snowfall from precipitation and associated temperature records. The new method requires two variables; the threshold mean daily air temperature at which 50% of precipitation is considered snow, and the temperature range within which mixed precipitation can occur. Sensitivity analyses using 15 climate stations across south‐western Alberta, Canada, and ranging from prairie to alpine regions investigates the sensitivity of those two variables on mean annual snowfall (MAS), the coefficient of determination, and the MAS‐weighted coefficient of determination. Existing methods, including the static threshold method, one linear transition method used by Quick and Pipes, and the Leavesley method employed in the PRMS hydrological modelling system are compared with the new method, using a total of 963 years of daily data from the 15 climate stations used for the sensitivity analyses. Four different approaches to using the two input variables (threshold temperature and range) were tested and statistically compared: mean annual variables based on the 15 stations, mean annual variables for each station, mean monthly variables for each station, and a sine curve representing seasonal variation of the variables. In almost all cases the proposed new method resulted in higher MAS‐weighted coefficients of determination, and, on average, they were significantly different from those of other methods. The paper concludes with a decision tree to help decide which method and approach to apply under a variety of data availabilities. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Intercomparison of Himawari-8 AHI-FSA with MODIS and VIIRS active fire products   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Chathura Wickramasinghe  Luke Wallace  Karin Reinke  Simon Jones 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2020,13(4):457-473

ABSTRACT

The AHI-FSA (Advanced Himawari Imager - Fire Surveillance Algorithm) is a recently developed algorithm designed to support wildfire surveillance and mapping using the geostationary Himawari-8 satellite. At present, the AHI-FSA algorithm has only been tested on a number of case study fires in Western Australia. Initial results demonstrate potential as a wildfire surveillance algorithm providing high frequency (every 10 minutes), multi-resolution fire-line detections. This paper intercompares AHI-FSA across the Northern Territory of Australia (1.4 million km²) over a ten-day period with the well-established fire products from LEO (Low Earth Orbiting) satellites: MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite). This paper also discusses the difficulties and solutions when comparing high temporal frequency fire products with existing low temporal resolution LEO satellite products. The results indicate that the multi-resolution approach developed for AHI-FSA is successful in mapping fire activity at 500?m. When compared to the MODIS, daily AHI-FSA omission error was only 7%. High temporal frequency data also results in AHI-FSA observing fires, at times, three hours before the MODIS overpass with much-enhanced detail on fire movement.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal intercomparison of four global burned area products     

Michael L. Humber  Luigi Boschetti  Louis Giglio  Christopher O. Justice 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2019,12(4):460-484

We characterize the agreement and disagreement of four publically available burned products (Fire CCI, Copernicus Burnt Area, MODIS MCD45A1, and MODIS MCD64A1) at a finer spatial and temporal scale than previous assessments using a grid of three-dimensional cells defined both in space and in time. Our analysis, conducted using seven years of data (2005–2011), shows that estimates of burned area vary greatly between products in terms of total area burned, the location of burning, and the timing of the burning. We use regional and monthly units for analysis to provide insight into the variation between products that can be lost when considering products yearly and/or globally. Comparison with independent, contemporaneous MODIS active fire observations provides one indication of which products most reasonably capture the burning regime. Our results have implications for the use of global burned area products in fire ecology, management and emissions applications.  相似文献   

Sea experiments of the Underway Conductivity-Temperature-Depth prototype made in China     

Xiangzhou Song  Hui Li  Xiaopei Lin  Xueen Chen  Xinshun Guo  Jiwei Tian 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2009,8(4):409-415

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