Prediction of volumes and risk in hydrocarbon exploration: a quantification of geology     

H. J. Nijhuis 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1997,86(2):322-331

 The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited. Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios. Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996  相似文献   

Causes of Land Subsidence in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia     

Amin  Ammar  Bankher  Khalid 《Natural Hazards》1997,16(1):57-63

The occurrence of land subsidence in the Kingdom Saudi Arabia is either natural or man-made. Natural land subsidence occurs due to the development of subterranean voids by a solution of host rocks in carbonate and evaporite terrains, over many areas of Saudi Arabia. Man-induced land subsidence is either due to the removal of groundwater in the agricultural areas or to wetting of unstable soils. Therefore, earth fissures and a lowering of the ground surface in unconsolidated sediments took place in alluvial plains and volcanic vent terrains. Unstable soils include Sabkha soils and loess sediments. These types of soils occur in coastal plains, desert areas and volcanic terrains. When this soil is wetted either during agricultural activities, waste disposal or even during a rain storm, subsidence takes place due to either the removal of salts from the Sabkha soil or the rearrangement of soil particles in loess sediments.  相似文献   

Karst Hazard Assessment of Eastern Saudi Arabia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Amin  Ammar A.  Bankher  Khalid A. 《Natural Hazards》1997,15(1):21-30

Karst phenomena exist in areas in the eastern part of Saudi Arabia, forming solution features such as sinkholes, collapsed dolines and solution caverns, as a result of the chemical leaching of the carbonate and evaporite formations by percolating water. The instability of these karst phenomena could produce land subsidence problems. This paper reviews the geology of documented karstic rock units in Saudi Arabia and proposes a simple engineering classification of the solution features characteristic of limestone. Two case histories in the Dhahran area, eastern Saudi Arabia, will be used as examples for the application of a modified engineering classification.  相似文献   

不同岩溶动力系统的碳稳定同位素和地球化学特征及其意义——以我国几个典型岩溶地区为例   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

刘再华  袁道先  何师意 《地质学报》1997,71(3)

结合水化学的野外观测及室内计算,作者对桂林岩溶试验场、四川黄龙风景区和贵州乌江渡坝区3个岩溶动力系统的碳稳定同位素特征进行了分析,进而对系统的性质、系统中CO_2的来源、碳酸盐沉积过程中的碳同位素动力分馏、水化学和钙华的成因及热水钙华的~(14)C测年等地球化学问题作了探讨。结果表明,桂林岩溶试验场属于表层岩溶作用动力系统,其中的侵蚀动力主要来源于大气降水溶解土壤中的CO_2;四川黄龙风景区属于深部岩溶动力系统,侵蚀动力来自大气降水溶解幔源的CO_2;贵州乌江渡坝区岩溶系统,虽然属于表层岩溶动力系统,但其中一部分的同位素和水化学特征已受到人类活动的重大影响。  相似文献   

物探方法在岩溶勘查中的应用综述   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

刘崧 《地质科技情报》1997,16(2):85-91

简要介绍了岩溶勘察中常用物探方法的基本原理和技术，并举例说明其在岩溶地区进行水利水电工程地质勘察、岩溶地下水寻找、环境保护和溶洞探测时的有效性。  相似文献   

宁南深层岩溶地下水系统三维数值模拟   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李向全  侯新伟  张莉 《地球科学进展》2004,(Z1)

宁南“南北古脊梁”岩溶裂隙水系统的储水空间以岩溶裂隙为主,岩溶水的空间分布明显受南北向大型断裂构造控制。根据水动力场和水化学场特征,划分了3个相对独立的岩溶水子系统。通过三维数值模拟计算,确定了马渠—洪河岩溶水子系统天然资源量和可开采资源量,为本区的地下水合理开发利用提供了科学依据。  相似文献   

大同煤田岩溶地下水的水文地质特征分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

赵慧玲 《中国煤田地质》2004,16(1):26-28,35

根据大同煤田岩溶地下水化学特征资料、钻孔揭露岩溶发育的资料、以及矿井出水资料，结合岩溶地下水区域水文地质条件、岩溶地下水的水温与同位素特征，对大同煤田岩溶地下水的富水层位与找水方向作了进一步的探讨与分析。  相似文献   

天山北麓玛纳斯河流域山间洼地地下水库的形成机理与开发利用的意义     

陈旭光  陈德斌  蔡青勤 《新疆地质》2004,22(3):248-252

天山北麓玛纳斯河流域山问洼地位于低山丘陵区山前坳陷带的南部，该区褶皱、断裂、近NS向次级张性断裂与平移构造以及山间洼地的第四系沉积物发育．山区地表水流经该段入渗，加之南部中山区的侧向补给形成山间洼地地下水库．正确认识玛纳斯河流域山间洼地地下水库的形成机理并对其进行合理的开发利用，对解决玛纳斯河流域季节性缺水及枯水年缺水有重要意义．笔应用构造及地表水由山区水站至山口渠首站实测流量损失的研究成果，揭示了玛纳斯河流域山间洼地地下水库的形成及调蓄作用，并概算了补给量，为今后开发利用山间洼地地下水库水资源提供了依据．  相似文献   

电法在探测岩溶上的应用     

武斌  曾校丰 《四川地质学报》2004,24(4):251-253

通过对电法中几种常用方法的分析，说明其在岩溶探测中有效，并提出了七种确定岩溶的方法。  相似文献   

洪山泉流量动态系统分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李静 《水文地质工程地质》2004,31(2):79-82

为查明洪山泉域的开采程度,在前人研究基础上,建立了现阶段泉流量-降雨量的线性模拟模型。通过对模型的系统辨识,对系统的"慢时变"现象作出了合理解释,并发现系统在1994年以后发生了"快时变",说明开采量从1995年开始迅猛增加。同时,由多年来泉流量序列的自相关分析,发现其宏观周期到2000年基本保持不变,说明虽然第二输入(即人为开采量)对该系统的作用已不可忽略,但尚未达到足以改变其宏观频率的程度。  相似文献