新疆地震预报研究     

朱令人 《内陆地震》1993,7(2):90-105

新疆的地震预报是1970年开始的。二十多年来在“边观测、边研究、边预报”、“多路探索、多兵种联合作战”、“走综合预报之路”的方针指导下取得了长足的进展。建设了43个地震台站,投入189套仪器,建成了遍布全疆的地震无线通讯网,开展了历史地震调查和地震烈度区划工作,建立健全了地震会商预报制度,进行了多方面的地震预报研究。实际地震预报统计分析表明,扣除自然发震概率之后,趋势预报的成功率约0.3,短临预报的成功率约0.1。在前兆台网控制范围内取得了一些震例,说明地震确实是有前兆的,但又是非常复杂的。地震预报作为科学难题还有漫长的路要走。作者简要地讨论了地震观测的间接性和地震异常的离散性、难以区别的地震异常和地壳变动异常、建立在复杂现象基础上的地震前兆以及地震的混沌性对地震预报的影响等科学问题。  相似文献   

科技管理兼盈——纪念程裕淇院士诞辰110周年     

耿元生 《地质学报》2022,96(9):2955-2966

程裕淇院士是我国著名的变质岩石学家、矿床学家和前寒武纪地质学家。中国科学院学部委员(院士)，中国人民政治协商会议第四届、第五届全国委员会委员，第六届、第七届全国政协常务委员会委员。程裕淇先生开拓了我国变质岩研究领域，提出了矿床成矿系列理论，发展了我国前寒武纪地质学。他在管理上积极推进地质行业的对外开放，促进国际合作交流，为建立中央直属的野战军队伍建言献策；在政协多次提案，推动了我国矿产资源法的立法和实施。  相似文献   

地震短临综合预报方法的研究     

李文英  平建军 《华北地震科学》1995,13(3):36-43

本文在《中国震例》资料基础上,详细分析了华北地区１７次中强以上地震前的短临异常,得到华北地区中强以上地震短临异常的三个综合特征,在归纳出短临异常综合特征的基础上,提出了两个判定孕震过程、前兆异常由中期向短期过渡的定量的综合标志。据中期异常的追踪分析和短临异常综合分析相结合的原则,定义并计算了综合预报指标Ｓ值,以此值作为是否发生中强以上地震的判据。本文的重点是在分析短临异常综合特征的基础上,结合实用  相似文献   

关于地震预报科学思路,方法论及难点的思考   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

陈立德 《地震研究》1992,15(2):186-192

中国地震预报的科学思路为整体观指导下的异常群体阶段性追踪预报模式。在方法论方面强调了宏观唯象方法的重要性,认为利用地震学、地球物理、地壳形变和地球化学等资料,采用统计识别的方法来寻找地震前兆、进行三要素预报是解决孕震过程这类复杂系统的较好方法。同时指出,地震成因、震源孕育物理力学过程、前兆成因机制、临震阶段起主宰作用的变量等是地震预报的难关所在。临震阶段潮汐力、气压、降水等这些平时视为干扰因素的变化,可能成为发震的触发调制因素。从而增加了前兆的复杂性,在排除干扰时应特别注意。  相似文献   

“煤特征指数”与矿井瓦斯危险类型的关系     

张世平 《煤田地质与勘探》1992,20(6):36-39

矿井瓦斯危险程度与煤层中瓦斯赋存状况及其泄出方式有关,并取决于多种地质条件和采掘工艺。其中,煤特征条件特别重要。本文分析了湖南省的5种矿井瓦斯危险类型以及相应的煤特征条件,提出了“煤特征指数(I_c)”这一概念。I_c是一项评价矿井瓦斯危险程度的综合指标。研究表明,矿井瓦斯危险愈严重,则其I_c值愈高。应用该项成果预测了16对矿井的瓦斯危险类型,取得了满意的效果。  相似文献   

System for normalization of a hamiltonian function based on lie series     

Krzysztof Gozdziewski  Andrzej J. Maciejewski 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1990,49(1):1-10

A software system for normalization of a Hamiltonian function is described. A few examples of its applications are given. It is written in PASCAL and runs on an IBM XT/AT with 640 KB memory.  相似文献   

Comparison of structural and least-squares lines for estimating geologic relations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Garnett P. Williams  Brent M. Troutman 《Mathematical Geology》1990,22(8):1027-1049

Two different goals in fitting straight lines to data are to estimate a true linear relation (physical law) and to predict values of the dependent variable with the smallest possible error. Regarding the first goal, a Monte Carlo study indicated that the structural-analysis (SA) method of fitting straight lines to data is superior to the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method for estimating true straight-line relations. Number of data points, slope and intercept of the true relation, and variances of the errors associated with the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables influence the degree of agreement. For example, differences between the two line-fitting methods decrease as error in X becomes small relative to error in Y. Regarding the second goal—predicting the dependent variable—OLS is better than SA. Again, the difference diminishes as X takes on less error relative to Y. With respect to estimation of slope and intercept and prediction of Y, agreement between Monte Carlo results and large-sample theory was very good for sample sizes of 100, and fair to good for sample sizes of 20. The procedures and error measures are illustrated with two geologic examples.  相似文献   

FS方法及其在综合多项震兆中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

范洪顺  王碧泉 《地球物理学报》1990,33(3):297-307

本文提出了一种模式识别方法--FS方法.该方法的特征取为某些论域上的模糊子集.先以每三个原始特征组成子分类器的特征集,“训练”这些分类器,然后对子分类器进行筛选,最后用筛选出的子分类器的“软”分类结果的加权平均作为判别函数,形成总的分类决策.将FS方法应用于综合多项震兆,并进行了一系列控制试验,还与地震学中几种常用的方法进行了对比试验.结果表明,FS方法是稳定和有效的.  相似文献   

Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Huai-zhong Yu  Zheng-kang Shen  Yong-ge Wan  Qing-yong Zhu  Xiang-chu Yin   《Tectonophysics》2006,428(1-4):87-94

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.  相似文献   

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»     

V.G. Kossobokov   《Tectonophysics》2006,413(1-2):25

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.  相似文献