天山南麓雷暴日短期预报研究     

柳志慧  王式功  尚可政  孔德兵  赵文婧  王昀 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2016,10(2):43-49

利用阿克苏及邻近地区12个气象站1980—2013年雷暴资料,以及同期高空资料,统计了各站年均雷暴日数,对发生区域雷暴天气的环流形势进行分类,归纳出各型的入型指标。通过逐步回归法,建立阿克苏及邻近地区区域雷暴概率回归预报模型,并对2013年进行试预报。结果表明:(1)阿克苏及邻近地区区域雷暴的影响系统主要分为4类:巴湖低槽型、急流型、西北气流型和温度槽型。(2)对2002—2012年5—9月(共1683 d)历史资料进行判别,满足入型条件的样本数为876 d,消空率为48%;对2013年5—9月(共153 d)历史资料进行判别,入型样本数为80 d,消空率为48%。(3)对2002—2012年5—9月所有入型样本进行回代检验,平均准确率为72.0%(平均TS评分为30.1%);对2013年5—9月所有入型样本进行试预报,平均准确率为63.2%(平均TS评分为28.2%)。  相似文献   

SAR图像海岸线检测的区域距离正则化几何主动轮廓模型   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

姜大伟  范剑超  黄凤荣 《测绘学报》2016,45(9):1096-1103

合成孔径雷达(SAR)卫星遥感图像可以极大地提高全国海岸线覆盖频率,然而受到海洋波浪所引起的随机海水表面粗糙度的影响,海岸目标与海水背景边界易混淆不清,因此本文提出了基于区域距离正则化几何主动轮廓模型(RDRGAC),引入距离正则项,解决重复初始化水平集函数为符号距离函数的问题,提高了算法收敛速度。此外,将区域面积项系数与SAR图像等效视数(ENL)建立非线性拟合关系,实现RDRGAC模型根据不同SAR遥感图像的自适应调整,改善海岸线自动提取精度。通过河北省北戴河和大连市金州湾SAR数据海岸线提取对比试验,验证了所提方法的有效性。  相似文献   

回归-Elman网络在矿坝变形预测中的应用     

王祖顺  韩吉德  王春青 《测绘工程》2016,25(1):39-42

金矿开展矿坝的变形监测工作,引入多层递阶回归分析模型,有较高的预测精度,但方法较繁琐,计算较复杂。由于变形数据可分离成趋势项与随机项,趋势项可用多元线性回归良好地拟合;随机项的预测,文中采用Elman网络建模计算,最后利用矿坝的实测高程位移数据进行验证,并与多层递阶回归进行比较。结果表明:回归-Elman网络模型比多层递阶回归的预测精度更高,效果更好,且方法简洁实用性强。  相似文献   

加权Logistic回归模型在火山岩型铜矿预测中的应用:以宁芜盆地中段为例          下载免费PDF全文

赵增玉  陈火根  潘懋  贾根  李向前  徐士银  郭刚  张祥云 《高校地质学报》2016,22(1):105

文中探讨了加权Logistic回归模型在宁芜盆地中段火山岩型铜矿预测中的应用。首先,结合研究区的成矿地质背景,提取地质体、构造、围岩蚀变三大类证据因子;其次,分析各证据因子与铜矿点之间的空间关系,认为姑山旋回、娘娘山旋回火山机构控制了本区火山岩型铜矿的空间分布,根据计算结果,选取与火山岩型铜矿密切相关的龙王山组、姑山组地层,姑山旋回粗面斑岩、娘娘山旋回二长斑岩、NW向构造1.5 km缓冲区、NE向构造1.3 km缓冲区、EW向构造4.5 km缓冲区、硅化、褐铁矿化、黄铜矿化等作为模型自变量;最后采用加权Logistic回归模型进行成矿概率计算,并结合成矿地质背景,圈定四个成矿远景区,分别为P1、P2、P3、P4,其中P1、P2、P3呈北东向展布,主要受娘娘山和姑山火山机构控制,P4为东西向分布,主要受龙王山火山机构控制,在这些预测区中,均存在已发现的铜矿体,说明预测可信度较高。  相似文献   

新疆喀喇昆仑山地区泥盆纪地层划分与特征          下载免费PDF全文

郭建强  王照亮  何小敏 《中国地质》2016,(3):987-999

在新疆西昆仑地区1∶5万区域地质调查中,对分布于喀喇昆仑山地层区中的泥盆纪地层,开展剖面测量和区域填图,系统收集其岩性岩相、岩石组合、分布特征、接触关系、生物化石、基本层序等资料,并展开了多重地层划分与对比研究。研究表明区内泥盆纪地层由中下统大王顶组,中统黄羊滩组、落石沟组和上统天神达坂组组成,各组之间均为整合接触关系,除天神达坂组未获生物化石外,其他层位均获有丰富的古生物化石。其中新建大王顶组和黄羊滩组2个岩石地层单位,以及腕足类3个、珊瑚类1个、菊石类1个、三叶虫类1个,共计6个生物地层单位。全面系统厘定和完善了区内泥盆纪的岩石地层序列、生物地层序列和年代地层序列,黄羊滩组是重要的铜矿和石膏矿赋矿层位。从而极大地提高了喀喇昆仑山地区泥盆纪地层研究程度,也为本区地质构造演化和成矿规律分析提供了必要地史资料。  相似文献   

强壮前沟藻(Amphidinium carterae Hulbert)在多重逆境条件下的生长和生理响应     

张珍妮  姜玥璐  李曼璐  魏鹏骥 《海洋与湖沼》2016,47(5):982-989

尽管单一逆境条件对浮游植物产生的影响已被广泛重视,然而对于多重逆境条件对藻细胞生长生理的研究仍有空白。本研究通过测定强壮前沟藻(Amphidinium carterae Hulbert)光密度(OD750)、叶绿素a含量(chl a)、光合作用效率(F_v/F_m)、碳氮比(C/N)等多个生理指标,分析其在9种环境下(常温光照、低温和低温黑暗三种物理环境,结合全营养、缺氮、缺磷三种营养状态)对多重逆境的生长和生理响应。研究结果表明,在多重逆境条件下,单一物理逆境因素(低温或黑暗)较氮限制或磷限制对藻细胞生长和生理的不利影响更为显著。营养限制并同低温环境双重作用对生物量和碳氮比产生显著性影响(P0.01)。此外,低温和黑暗条件耦合作用下,SYTOX Green染色强度处于较低水平,chl a稳定、F_v/F_m有所升高,强壮前沟藻在逆境环境下作为群体的衰亡得以缓解。  相似文献   

Interactive discovery of sequential patterns in time series of wind data     

Norhakim Yusof  Raul Zurita-Milla  Menno-Jan Kraak  Bas Retsios 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(8):1486-1506

Wind speed and direction vary over space and time due to the interactions between different pressures and temperature gradients within the atmospheric layers. Near the earth’s surface, these interactions are modulated by topography and artificial structures. Hence, characterizing wind behaviour over large areas and long periods is a complex but essential task for various energy-related applications. In this study, we present a novel approach to discover wind patterns by integrating sequential pattern mining and interactive visualization techniques. The approach relies on the use of the Linear time Closed pattern Miner sequence algorithm in conjunction with a time sliding window that allows the discovery of all sequential patterns present in the data. These patterns are then visualized using integrated 2D and 3D coordinated multiple views and visually explored to gain insight into the characteristics of the wind from a spatial, temporal and attribute (type of wind pattern) point of view. This proposed approach is used to analyse 10 years of hourly wind speed and direction data for 29 weather stations in the Netherlands. The results show that there are 15 main sequential patterns in the data. The spatial task shows that weather stations located in the same region do not necessarily experience similar wind pattern. For within the selected time interval, similar wind patterns can be observed in different stations and in the same station at different times of occurrence. The attribute task discovered that the repetitive occurrences of chosen pattern indicate as regular wind behaviour at different weather stations that persisted continuously over time. The results of these tasks show that the proposed interactive discovery facilitates the understanding of wind dynamics in space and time.  相似文献   

A new assessment model for evacuation vulnerability in urban areas     

Xiaoyi Ma  Ci Song  Chenghu Zhou 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(12):2401-2420

In the high-speed urbanization process of China, the urban population has been increasing significantly, leading to a high-density aggregation of population. However, the sharp increase in population density has not produced commensurate improvements in the road networks. On the contrary, the population increase induced a serious evacuation vulnerability, which cities experience during various hazards and catastrophic events. Therefore, research on evacuation vulnerability is important to urban planning. To assess the evacuation vulnerability, the optimal and worst scenarios should be considered because all possible evacuation plans occur between these extremes. However, most previous evacuation vulnerability studies are based on the worst-case scenario, only providing an upper bound of a potential evacuation assessment. To provide a more comprehensive theoretical basis for decision-makers to understand the consequences caused by all possible evacuations, this paper proposes an optimal evacuation vulnerability assessment model that provides the lower bound on potential evacuation difficulties. The model is solved by a stepwise spreading algorithm based on Graph Theory. Subsequently, to evaluate the effectiveness of the model, the study adopts the model to assess the evacuation capability of different road network topologies. A comparison with previous research was performed. The model was demonstrated in an application to the South Luogu Alley of Beijing, China. The significance of this paper is that the combination of our model with previous research may provide a more complete theoretical basis for an evacuation vulnerability assessment.  相似文献   

基于多元对应分析的国家地质公园综合价值及分类   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘佳  姚华军  高伟  冯春涛  李闵 《地质通报》2016,35(5):842-849

目前地质公园的分类难以针对具有多重价值属性的各类地质公园提出行之有效的分类管理模式。提出基于综合价值的国家地质公园分类模式,建立了国家地质公园综合价值评价指标,通过问卷调查与小组讨论获取了35个国家地质公园的量化综合价值评价指标数据,应用多元对应分析对量化数据进行统计处理,最后将35个国家地质公园分为禀赋型地质公园、生态型地质公园、成熟型地质公园、均衡型地质公园和发展型地质公园五大类,为国家地质公园分类管理提供依据。  相似文献   

长春地区粉质黏土导热系数与其物性参数相关性研究     

姚仁  杜立志  吕守航  沈明燮 《世界地质》2018,37(3):976-981

为研究导热系数与影响因素之间的相关关系,建立导热系数的推算公式,以长春地区粉质黏土为研究对象,对原状土样的导热系数与其物理参数之间的相关性进行回归分析。制作9个重塑土样,测其相关的参数值,以验证回归方程的适用性。结果表明,回归分析建立导热系数与2个物理参数之间的关系式不成立;考虑天然密度、含水率和孔隙度为自变量,其分别对应的相关性系数T检验显著值(Sig)都0. 05,复决定系数为0. 886,建立的回归方程成立,自变量能准确解释因变量的变化,且含水率与导热系数呈负相关,天然密度和孔隙度呈正相关。重塑土样相关参数代入回归方程得到的导热系数值与实验实测值之间相对误差低于4%,验证了该回归方程的普遍性和适用性。  相似文献