2011年3月云南连续两次强倒春寒天气过程对比分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

尤红  周泓  白学文  李艳平 《湖北气象》2013,(2):167-175

利用常规气象观测资料和NCEP 1°×1°6 h再分析资料,对2011年3月中、下旬云南两次强倒春寒天气过程(分别简称过程Ⅰ和过程Ⅱ)进行对比分析。结果表明,两次过程的影响系统不同,其造成的地面降温原因不同;垂直上升运动的厚度和强度不同,雨雪的强度和范围大小有明显差别。中低层水汽通量的增加和水汽辐合是云南大范围强降雪的必备条件,而降水对水汽通量和水汽辐合强度的要求低于降雪。过程Ⅰ水汽辐合发展高度高于过程Ⅱ,其无论降水还是降雪的强度和范围均超过过程Ⅱ。能量锋区附近不稳定能量水平梯度越大,能量积聚越多,其触发后强烈释放,带来的天气现象也越剧烈。倒春寒发生前,过程Ⅱ云南省的位势不稳定强于过程Ⅰ;倒春寒爆发后,过程Ⅱ的雷暴范围大于过程Ⅰ。低层露点锋抬升作用可触发中层强不稳定能量释放,等露点温度(Td)线分布区域对降雨(雪)及雷暴分布具有一定的指示意义。  相似文献   

Building bridges to 2020 and beyond: the road from Bali     

HARALD WINKLER  SHAUN VORSTER 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):240-254

What would the shape of a realistic, yet ambitious, package for the climate regime after 2012 look like? How do we obtain a package deal starting in Bali but building bridges to a post-2020 climate regime? A fair, effective, flexible and inclusive package deal has to strike a core balance between development and climate imperatives (mitigation, adaptation, dealing with the impacts of response measures, technology transfer, investment and finance) to create bargaining space and establish a conceptual contract zone. Within a continuum of possible packages, two packages in the contract zone are identified: ‘multi-stage’ and ‘ambitious transitional’. The latter is ambitious, combining domestic cap-and-trade for the USA, deeper cuts for Annex B countries, and quantifiable mitigation actions by developing countries. It is transitional as a possible bridge to a more inclusive regime beyond 2020. Multi-stage is defined around mechanisms by which countries move through increasingly stringent levels of participation, and must be based upon agreed triggers. Our assessment of political dynamics is that multi-stage is not yet in the political contract zone. Key to this is the absence of a ‘trigger from the North’, in that the largest historical emitter must act earlier and most decisively. But progress will also depend on continued leadership from Annex B countries, as well as more proactive, incentivized leadership in the South. Agreeing on the transitional stage is the critical next step in the evolution of the climate regime. Negotiating any package will require an institutional space for bargaining, political leadership and trust, and a clear time-frame.  相似文献   

中国梯田撂荒程度及空间格局分异研究     

董世杰  辛良杰  李升发  谢花林  赵宇鸾  王学  李秀彬  宋恒飞  卢亚晗 《地理学报》2023,78(1):3-15

在城镇化和工业化的驱动下,中国丘陵山区耕地逐渐被边际化,耕地撂荒范围也迅速从劣质的坡耕地延展至优质的梯田,大规模梯田撂荒将会引发一系列社会和生态效应,科学评估中国山区梯田的撂荒程度及空间分布将有助于有效地应对耕地撂荒问题。本文通过全国抽样调查的方式对中国梯田的撂荒程度进行了调查,利用获取的中国329个县的560份村问卷测算了中国梯田撂荒规模,并进一步分析了梯田撂荒空间分异特征及驱动因素。结果显示：(1)全国梯田撂荒现象分布广泛,发生梯田撂荒的村庄占总调查村庄的比例为54%,撂荒面积占梯田总面积的比例达到9.79%;(2)梯田撂荒程度呈现“南高北低”的特征,南方丘陵山区较为严重,尤以长江中下游地区为最;(3)梯田撂荒的主要因素可归结为农业劳动力外出务工、梯田耕作机械化程度、灌溉条件、耕作交通条件等。减缓梯田撂荒,应因区精准施策,提高梯田区机械化水平等措施具有普适性,针对质量较差的梯田,可有序“退耕”,对于质量较好的梯田,可采用调整种植结构、加强农业基础设施建设、鼓励流转与规模经营等方式。  相似文献   

印度半岛对亚洲夏季风进程影响的数值研究   总被引：8，自引：5，他引：8  

徐海明  何金海  董敏 《热带气象学报》2001,17(2):117-124

利用ＣＣＭ３模拟了印度半岛对亚洲热带夏季风进程的影响，结果表明，印度半岛对亚洲热带夏季风的建立进程起了非常重要的作用，本文还就印度半岛对亚洲夏季风进程影响的机理进行了讨论。  相似文献   

Calculation of the structural properties of asymmetrical nuclear matter     

Gholam Hossein Bordbar  Hamideh Nadgaran 《天体物理学报》2012,(3):345-358

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Physical origin of multi-wavelength emission of GRB 100418A and implications for its progenitor     

Lan-Wei Jia  Xue-Feng Wu  Hou-Jun Lti  Shu-Jin Hou  En-Wei Liang 《天体物理学报》2012,(4):411-418

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The new RS CVn binary V1034 Her revisited and the orbital period—activity relation of short-period RS CVn binaries using photometric distortion amplitude     

Li-Yun Zhang 《天体物理学报》2012,(4):433-442

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Analyse statistique des séquences sèches dans un bassin du nord de la Tunisie / Statistical analysis of dry events in a northern Tunisian basin     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):442-455

Abstract

A comparative statistical study of dry events during the rainy season is presented. In particular, we carried out statistical processing of the daily records of raingauges in the downstream basin of Lake Ichkeul, in the north of Tunisia. The climate is characterized by a rainy season lasting from the autumn until spring. The Poisson distribution was applied to describe the number of rainfall events, and negative binomial distribution was applied for the length of the dry events, in the rainy season. Since rainfall events are shorter, their duration follows a geometrical distribution, as theoretically required. For planning purposes, the longest seasonal dry spells associated with the various statistical recurrence periods are derived on the basis of the fitted GEV functions. A hydrological year starts at the beginning of the first rainfall event of a given season. The length of hydrological year is determined by the time interval between the start dates of two subsequent rainy seasons. The beginning of the hydrological year occurs on average toward mid-September, but the probability of it occurring before 15 September exceeds 40%. Spatial analysis of dry events is also done. A significant fraction of the dry events occurred for at least two stations simultaneously. Furthermore, 4.5% of the dry events have been observed at all three stations. The analysis of the dry events gives an alternative method to examine the dry spell phenomenon.  相似文献   

PUBLICATIONS OF THE IAHS     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):365-370

Abstract

Gauging stations where the stage—discharge relationship is affected by hysteresis due to unsteady flow represent a challenge in hydrometry. In such situations, the standard hydrometric practice of fitting a single-valued rating curve to the available stage—discharge measurements is inappropriate. As a solution to this problem, this study provides a method based on the Jones formula and nonlinear regression, which requires no further data beyond the available stage—discharge measurements, given that either the stages before and after each measurement are known along with the duration of each measurement, or a stage hydrograph is available. The regression model based on the Jones formula rating curve is developed by applying the monoclinal rising wave approximation and the generalized friction law for uniform flow, along with simplifying assumptions about the hydraulic and geometric properties of the river channel in conjunction with the gauging station. Methods for obtaining the nonlinear least-squares rating-curve estimates, while factoring in approximated uncertainty, are discussed. The broad practical applicability and appropriateness of the method are demonstrated by applying the model to: (a) an accurate, comprehensive and detailed database from a hydropower-generated highly dynamic flow in the Chattahoochee River, Georgia, USA; and (b) data from gauging stations in two large rivers in the USA affected by hysteresis. It is also shown that the model is especially suitable for post-modelling hydraulic and statistical validation and assessment.  相似文献   

A METHOD OF ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM / Méthode pour l'évaluation de la probabilité de l'occurrence des équivalents neige-eau au Royaume Uni     

MERVYN C. JACKSON 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):127-142

Abstract

A simple guide (shown in the appendix) is produced, which enables a water manager or engineer to make an estimate of statistics of water equivalent of snow cover for return periods between 5 and 100 years for most places in the United Kingdom. This paper describes how the guide was produced using many different sources of data. The methods described here will be of help to both meteorologists and hydrologists in temperate countries with similar snow questions.  相似文献