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1.
Bayesian analysis of stage–fall–discharge models for gauging stations affected by variable backwater
Parsimonious stage–fall–discharge rating curve models for gauging stations subject to backwater complications are developed from simple hydraulic theory. The rating curve models are compounded in order to allow for possible shifts in the hydraulics when variable backwater becomes effective. The models provide a prior scientific understanding through the relationship between the rating curve parameters and the hydraulic properties of the channel section under study. This characteristic enables prior distributions for the rating curve parameters to be easily elicited according to site‐specific information and the magnitude of well‐known hydraulic quantities. Posterior results from three Norwegian and one American twin‐gauge stations affected by variable backwater are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The case studies demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian rating curve assessment is appropriate for developing rating procedures for gauging stations that are subject to variable backwater. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
M. Ali Kokpinar A. Burcu Altan-Sakarya S. Yurdagul Kumcu Mustafa Gogus 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(12):2189-2203
AbstractAnalyses of data from reservoir surveys and sediment rating curves are compared to predict sediment yield in three large reservoir watershed areas in Turkey. Sediment yield data were derived from reservoir sedimentation rates and suspended sediment measurements at gauging stations. The survey data were analysed to provide the volume estimates of sediment, the time-averaged sediment deposition rates, the long-term average annual loss rates in the reservoir storage capacity, and the long-term sediment yield of the corresponding watershed areas. Four regression methods, including linear and nonlinear cases, were applied to rating curves obtained from gauging stations. Application of the efficiency test to a power function form of a rating curve with nonlinear regression yielded the highest efficiency values. Based on the analysis of the sediment rating curves, sediment load fluxes were calculated by using average daily discharge data at each gauging station. Comparison of these two sediment yield values for each reservoir showed that the sediment yields from the suspended sediment measurements, SYGS, are 0.99 to 3.54 times less than those obtained from the reservoir surveys, SYRS. The results from the reservoir surveys indicate that all three reservoirs investigated have lost significant storage capacity due to high sedimentation rates. 相似文献
3.
Trond Reitan Asgeir Petersen-Øverleir 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(5):627-642
This study explores Bayesian methods for handling compound stage–discharge relationships, a problem which arises in many natural
rivers. It is assumed: (1) the stage–discharge relationship in each rating curve segment is a power-law with a location parameter,
or zero-plane displacement; (2) the segment transitions are abrupt and continuous; and (3) multiplicative measurement errors
are of equal variance. The rating curve fitting procedure is then formulated as a piecewise regression problem where the number
of segments and the associated changepoints are assumed unknown. Procedures are developed for describing both global and site-specific
prior distributions for all rating curve parameters, including the changepoints. Estimation and uncertainty analysis is evaluated
using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) techniques. The first model explored accounts for parameter and model uncertainties
in the interpolated area, i.e. within the range of available stage–discharge measurements. A second model is constructed in
an attempt to include the uncertainty in extrapolation, which is necessary when the rating curve is used to estimate discharges
beyond the highest or lowest measurement. This is done by assuming that the rate of changepoints both inside and outside the
measured area follows a Poisson process. The theory is applied to actual data from Norwegian gauging stations. The MCMC solutions
give results that appear sensible and useful for inferential purposes, though the latter model needs further efforts in order
to obtain a more efficient simulation scheme. 相似文献
4.
D.J. Booker 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2010,35(7):828-841
Coefficients describing at‐a‐station power‐law relationships between discharge and width were calculated by applying multilevel models to field data collected during routine hydrological monitoring at 326 gauging stations across New Zealand. These hydraulic geometry coefficients were then estimated for each of these stations using standard stepwise multiple‐linear regression models. Analysis was carried out to quantify how the relationship between width and discharge changed in relation to several available explanatory variables. All coefficients describing the at‐a‐station hydraulic geometry were found to have statistically significant relationships with catchment area. Statistically significant relationships between each of the coefficients were also found with the addition of catchment climate as an explanatory variable. Further statistically significant relationships were found when station elevation and channel slope, as well as hydrological source of flow and landcover of the upstream catchment were added to the explanatory variables. The level of confidence that can be associated with estimates of width at ungauged sites, and sites with limited data availability, was then assessed by comparing model predictions with independent paired data on observed width and discharge from 197 sites. When compared against these independent data, model predictions of width were improved with the addition of predictor variables of the hydraulic geometry coefficients. The greatest improvements were made when climate was added to catchment area as predictor variables. Minor improvements were made when all available information was used to predict width at these independent sites. Although the analysis was purely empirical, results describing relationships between hydraulic geometry coefficients and catchment characteristics corresponded well with knowledge of the processes controlling at‐a‐station hydraulic geometry of river width. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Analysis of flow-sediment rating curve hysteresis based on flow and sediment travel time estimations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A flow-sediment rating curve is used to describe the relation between flow discharge and suspended-sediment concentration for a specific location. Five types of flow-sediment rating curves - single-valued line, clockwise loop, counterclockwise loop, single-valued line plus loop, and figure eight - were found to rely on the flow and available sediment arriving at the measuring site. In this study, equations for flow and sediment travel time were derived according to soil, rainfall, and watershed geomorphologic characteristics. The hysteresis of the rating curve was related to the travel times by a series of numerical tests. Field data collected from the Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed, Mississippi, United States were used to verify the proposed rating curve hysteresis analysis. The results indicate that when the flow travel time is more extended than the sediment travel time, the rating curve shows a clockwise loop. A counterclockwise loop in the rating curve shows that the flow travel time is less extended than the sediment travel time. If the flow travel time exceeds the sediment travel time in specific runoff states and is less than the sediment travel time in other runoff states, then a single line plus a loop rating curve or a figure-eight rating curve is observed. The criterion for the model parameters to obtain equalization of the flow and sediment travel times was derived, which can identify the type of flow-sediment rating curve in a specific watershed. 相似文献
6.
Hilary McMillan Jim Freer Florian Pappenberger Tobias Krueger Martyn Clark 《水文研究》2010,24(10):1270-1284
In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
The efficacy of in‐stream nephelometric turbidometry as a surrogate for total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations was evaluated for use in low turbidity (<50 NTU) subalpine watersheds at Lake Tahoe, California–Nevada, USA. Continuous turbidity records for the 1999, 2000 and 2001 snowmelt seasons and data from water quality samples (1982–2000) were examined to determine watershed sediment delivery dynamics. Strong correlations were found between turbidity and both TSS and TP concentration. The strong correlation indicates that turbidity can serve as a good surrogate for direct measurement in these watersheds. The watersheds displayed clockwise hysteresis: sediment flushing and depletion, on daily, seasonal and decadal time‐scales. The hysteresis curves had strong concave shapes, indicating a sensitive response to peak flow. A pronounced seasonal trend was observed for the ratio of suspended sediment concentration (SSC)/discharge over time, indicating early season flushing of available sediment. Significant linear relationships (p < 0·05) were found for 12 of 17 years. Comparison of annual sediment rating curve coefficients indicated smaller coefficients during high sediment loading years and in the years following. The smaller coefficients are evidence of sediment depletion during high flow years. The effect of hysteresis on monitoring methods was illustrated by comparing turbidity estimates of TSS load with sediment rating curve estimates of SSC. After accounting for differences in SSC/TSS methods of analysis, daily loads calculated with turbidity methods were 58–98% of rating curve estimates for the spring snowmelt seasons of 1999–2001. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Kerrie M. Tomkins 《水文研究》2014,28(3):464-481
Discharge time series' are one of the core data sets used in hydrological investigations. Errors in the data mainly occur through uncertainty in gauging (measurement uncertainty) and uncertainty in determination of the stage–discharge relationship (rating curve uncertainty). Thirty‐six flow gauges from the Namoi River catchment, Australia, were examined to explore how rating curve uncertainty affects gauge reliability and uncertainty of observed flow records. The analysis focused on the deviations in gaugings from the rating curves because standard (statistical) uncertainty methods could not be applied. Deviations of greater/lesser than 10% were considered significant to allow for a measurement uncertainty threshold of 10%, determined from quality coding of gaugings and operational procedures. The deviations in gaugings were compared against various factors to examine trends and identify major controls, including stage height, date, month, rating table, gauging frequency and quality, catchment area and type of control. The analysis gave important insights into data quality and the reliability of each gauge, which had previously not been recognized. These included identification of more/less reliable periods of record, which varied widely between gauges, and identification of more/less reliable parts of the hydrograph. Most gauges showed significant deviations at low stages, affecting the determination of low flows. This was independent of the type of gauge control, with many gauges experiencing problems in the stability of the rating curve, likely as a result of sediment flux. The deviations in gaugings also have widespread application in modelling, for example, informing suitable calibration periods and defining error distributions. This paper demonstrates the value and importance of undertaking qualitative analyses of observed records. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
Flow dynamics in a bedrock-influenced river system, the Sabie River, South Africa, have been found to be significantly different from those in temperate alluvial systems. The lack of lateral water connectivity leads to multiple bedrock distributaries with varying water surface elevations across a cross-section. Distributary activation is dependent on upstream breaching of bedrock barriers between distributaries by rising discharge. Where measurement of individual stage–discharge relationships in each distributary was not possible, a ‘Multiple Stage’ model was developed to predict hydraulic conditions in each distributary, using a single measured rating curve and knowledge of individual distributary water surface elevations at a low flow. Use of the ‘Multiple Stage’ model has enabled realistic prediction of channel geometry and hydraulic variables, that accounts for the different stages found in bedrock-influenced sections, yet is not prohibitively data intensive. Predicted ‘Multiple Stage’ results for maximum depth and velocity demonstrate the vast improvement on modelling flow dynamics, when compared to the conventional assumption of a single stage representing the whole cross-section. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Hysteresis represents a loop in a rating curve and is a phenomenon which closely resembles that occurring in stress–strain curves used for studying the elastic properties of solid substances in engineering mechanics. Earlier hysteresis‐based studies used for defining floodwave propagation in open channels have qualitatively shown that hysteresis is an index of energy loss during floodwave propagation. Using the concept of elasticity, this paper introduces a new term called flow strain (defined as the ratio of change in discharge to the initial discharge) for investigating hysteresis. The usefulness of this new term is evaluated with use of four dam‐break studies. The study reveals that:
- 1 flow strain is a function of three wave speeds, Seddon speed, Lagrange speed, and elastic speed;
- 2 a single linear reservoir concept frequently used in flood routing is a specific variant of the Seddon speed formula;
- 3 the non‐linear storage–discharge relationship, widely used in overland flow modelling, is a variant of the kinematic wave representation;
- 4 the discharge ordinates on the recession part of a hydrograph follow a simple first‐order autoregressive form;
- 5 the hysteresis, phase difference and logarithmic decrement all define attenuation and are indices of energy loss during floodwave propagation.
11.
Marcus Nathanson Jason W. Kean Thomas J. Grabs Jan Seibert Hjalmar Laudon Steve W. Lyon 《水文研究》2012,26(9):1427-1434
Accurate stream discharge measurements are important for many hydrological studies. In remote locations, however, it is often difficult to obtain stream flow information because of the difficulty in making the discharge measurements necessary to define stage‐discharge relationships (rating curves). This study investigates the feasibility of defining rating curves by using a fluid mechanics‐based model constrained with topographic data from an airborne LiDAR scanning. The study was carried out for an 8m‐wide channel in the boreal landscape of northern Sweden. LiDAR data were used to define channel geometry above a low flow water surface along the 90‐m surveyed reach. The channel topography below the water surface was estimated using the simple assumption of a flat streambed. The roughness for the modelled reach was back calculated from a single measurment of discharge. The topographic and roughness information was then used to model a rating curve. To isolate the potential influence of the flat bed assumption, a ‘hybrid model’ rating curve was developed on the basis of data combined from the LiDAR scan and a detailed ground survey. Whereas this hybrid model rating curve was in agreement with the direct measurements of discharge, the LiDAR model rating curve was equally in agreement with the medium and high flow measurements based on confidence intervals calculated from the direct measurements. The discrepancy between the LiDAR model rating curve and the low flow measurements was likely due to reduced roughness associated with unresolved submerged bed topography. Scanning during periods of low flow can help minimize this deficiency. These results suggest that combined ground surveys and LiDAR scans or multifrequency LiDAR scans that see ‘below’ the water surface (bathymetric LiDAR) could be useful in generating data needed to run such a fluid mechanics‐based model. This opens a realm of possibility to remotely sense and monitor stream flows in channels in remote locations. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
One of the most important problems in hydrology is the establishment of rating curves. The statistical tools that are commonly used for river stage‐discharge relationships are regression and curve fitting. However, these techniques are not adequate in view of the complexity of the problems involved. Three different neural network techniques, i. e., multi‐layer perceptron neural network with Levenberg‐Marquardt and quasi‐Newton algorithms and radial basis neural networks, are used for the development of river stage‐discharge relationships by constructing nonlinear relationships between stage and discharge. Daily stage and flow data from three stations, Yamula, Tuzkoy and Sogutluhan, on the Kizilirmak River in Turkey were used. Regression techniques are also applied to the same data. Different input combinations including the previous stages and discharges are used. The models' results are compared using three criteria, i. e., root mean square errors, mean absolute error and the determination coefficient. The results of the comparison reveal that the neural network techniques are much more suitable for setting up stage‐discharge relationships than the regression techniques. Among the neural network methods, the radial basis neural network is found to be slightly better than the others. 相似文献
13.
The hydrologic regime of the Tiber River basin in central Italy has been impacted considerably in the last decades by intensive anthropic activities, and hydraulic works in particular (e.g. hydropower reservoirs, land use modification). In the Tiber River the wash load, in particular, plays an important role in sediment transport, and the knowledge of this hydrological variable is very important for the evaluation of medium-long-term dynamic of shoreline, and the evaluation of reservoir landfill. The Ripetta flow gauge, located in downtown Rome, has been continuously monitoring the daily discharge for decades, while daily sediment load measurements are available only for short terms.In this research, the yearly sediment rate is simulated using a simple stochastic model based on the evaluation of sediment rating curves. The sediment rating curve, i.e. the average relation between discharge and suspended sediment concentration for a specific location, is estimated using a power law model. The fitting curve, obtained by regression analysis, lacks the physical characterization of the phenomenon, often represented by the empirical evidences of erosion severity and the erosional power of river. Model results provide useful insights on the impact of recent hydraulic works on the sediment transport regime. 相似文献
14.
RENZO ROSSO 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):137-149
ABSTRACT A linear approach is presented for analysing flood discharge series affected by measurement errors which are random in nature. A general model based upon the conditional probability concept is introduced to represent random errors and to analyse their effect on flood estimates. Flood predictions provided by quantiles are shown to be positively biased when performed from a sample of measured discharge. Though for design purposes such an effect is conservative, this bias cannot be neglected if the peak discharges are determined from stage measurements by means of the extrapolated tail of the rating curve for the gauging station concerned. Monte Carlo experiments, which have been carried out to analyse small sample effects, have finally shown that the use of the method of maximum likelihood is able to reduce the bias due to measurement errors in discharge data. 相似文献
15.
Multiple segmented rating curves have been proposed to better capture the variability of the physical and hydraulic characteristics of river–floodplain systems. We evaluate the accuracy of one- and two-segmented rating curves by exploiting a large and unique database of direct measurements of stage and discharge data in more than 200 Swedish catchments. Such a comparison is made by explicitly accounting for the potential impact of measurement uncertainty. This study shows that two-segmented rating curves did not fit the data significantly better, nor did they generate fewer errors than one-segmented rating curves. Two-segmented rating curves were found to be slightly beneficial for low flow when there were strong indications of segmentation, but predicted the rating relationship worse in cases of weak indication of segmentation. Other factors were found to have a larger impact on rating curve errors, such as the uncertainty of the discharge measurements and the type of regression method. 相似文献
16.
The measurement of river discharge is necessary for understanding many water‐related issues. Traditionally, river discharge is estimated by measuring water stage and converting the measurement to discharge by using a stage–discharge rating curve. Our proposed method for the first time couples the measurement of water‐surface width with river width–stage and stage–discharge rating curves by using very high‐resolution satellite data. We used it to estimate the discharge in the Yangtze (Changjiang) River as a case study. The discharges estimated at four stations from five QuickBird‐2 images matched the ground observation data very well, demonstrating that the proposed approach can be regarded as ancillary to traditional field measurement methods or other remote methods to estimate river discharge. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
River discharge values, estimated using a rating curve, are subject to both random and epistemic errors. We present a new likelihood function, the ‘Voting Point’ likelihood that accounts for both error types and enables generation of multiple possible multisegment power‐law rating curve samples that aim to represent the total uncertainty. The rating curve samples can be used for subsequent discharge analysis that needs total uncertainty estimation, e.g. regionalisation studies or calculation of hydrological signatures. We demonstrate the method using four catchments with diverse rating curve error characteristics, where epistemic uncertainty sources include weed growth, scour and redeposition of the bed gravels in a braided river, and unconfined high flows. The results show that typically, the posterior rating curve distributions include all of the gauging points and succeed in representing the spread of discharge values caused by epistemic rating errors. We aim to provide a useful method for hydrology practitioners to assess rating curve, and hence discharge, uncertainty that is easily applicable to a wide range of catchments and does not require prior specification of the particular types and causes of epistemic error at the gauged location. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Abstract Researchers have used various physical, chemical, or topographic features to define estuaries, based on the needs of their particular subject. The principal features of estuaries are the tides that influence their water stages; thus, the boundaries of an estuary can be determined based on whether the water stage is subject to tidal influence. However, the water stage is also influenced by the upstream river discharge. A hydrograph of water stage will therefore include both non-stationary and nonlinear features. Here, we use the Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT), which allows us to process such non-stationary and nonlinear signals, to decompose the water-stage hydrographs recorded at different gauging stations in an estuary into their intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and residuals. We then analyse the relationships between the frequencies of IMFs and known tidal components. A frequency correlation indicates that the water stage of the station is subject to tidal influences and is located within the estuary. The spatial distribution of the stations that are subject to tidal influences can then be used to define the estuary boundaries. We used data from gauging stations in the estuary region of Taiwan's Tanshui River to assess the feasibility of using the HHT to define an estuary. The results show that the HHT is a dependable and easy method for determining the boundaries of an estuary. Citation Chen, Y.-C., Kao, S.-P., and Chiang, H.-W., 2013. Defining an estuary using the Hilbert-Huang transform. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 841–853. 相似文献
19.
This work proposes two modelling frameworks for diagnosing temporal variations in nonlinear rating curves that describe suspended sediment–discharge relationships. A variant of the weighted regression on time, discharge, and season model is proposed and is compared against dynamic nonlinear modelling, a newly developed nonlinear time series filter based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Both approaches estimate a time series of rating curve parameters, with uncertainty, that can be used to diagnose variability in the sediment–discharge relationship over time. We evaluate the models with a variety of synthetic scenarios to highlight their ability to estimate signals of known rating curve change. Results reveal important bias‐variance trade‐offs unique to each approach, and in general, suggest that dynamic nonlinear modelling is better suited for rapid rating curve changes, whereas the weighted regression on time, discharge, and season variant more precisely estimates slow change. The techniques are then applied in two case studies in the Upper Hudson and Mohawk Rivers in New York. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of dynamic rating curves for the management of water quality in riverine and estuary systems. 相似文献
20.
Sediment rating curves are commonly used to estimate the suspended sediment load in rivers and streams under the assumption of a constant relation between discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) over time. However, temporal variation in the sediment supply of a watershed results in shifts in this relation by increasing variability and by introducing nonlinearities in the form of hysteresis or a path‐dependent relation. In this study, we used a mixed‐effects linear model to estimate an average SSC–Q relation for different periods of time within the hydrologic cycle while accounting for seasonality and hysteresis. We tested the performance of the mixed‐effects model against the standard rating curve, represented by a generalized least squares regression, by comparing observed and predicted sediment loads for a test case on the Chilliwack River, British Columbia, Canada. In our analyses, the mixed‐effects model reflected more accurate patterns of interpolated SSC from Q data than the rating curve, especially for the low‐flow summer months when the SSC–Q relation is less clear. Akaike information criterion scores were lower for the mixed‐effects model than for the standard model, and the mixed‐effects model explained nearly twice as much variance as the standard model (52% vs 27%). The improved performance was achieved by accounting for variability in the SSC–Q relation within each month and across years for the same month using fixed and random effects, respectively, a characteristic disregarded in the sediment rating curve. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献