数值天气预报业务模式现状与展望   总被引：36，自引：5，他引：31  

陈德辉  薛纪善 《气象学报》2004,62(5):623-633

20 0 4年是数值天气预报理论提出 10 0周年 ,同时也是数值天气预报业务化应用 5 0周年。经过百年的发展历程 ,数值天气预报学科有了飞跃的发展。特别是最近 10多年来 ,大气科学以及地球科学的研究进展 ,高速度、大容量的巨型计算机及网络系统的快速发展 ,更加快了数值天气预报的发展步伐。文中从模式动力框架、物理过程参数化、模式程序软件等方面对数值天气预报业务模式现状进行了简要综述 ,对存在的问题进行了探讨 ,并对数值天气预报业务模式的未来发展作了展望。当前数值天气预报业务模式发展的特点有 :(1) 2 0世纪 90年代中期以来 ,各国的全球和区域模式水平和垂直分辨率都有明显提高 ,且模式物理过程也同步进行改进 ;数值预报业务模式已进入了大规模并行计算的阶段 ;(2 )主要发达国家和中国都正在致力于研发各自的新业务数值预报模式———非静力 (多尺度 )一体化模式或非静力中尺度模式 ,部分国家的新一代天气 气候一体化数值模式已业务运行 ;(3)业务数值预报模式正在朝着不断完善的方向发展。随着模式分辨率的提高 ,云物理过程、陆面过程和湍流过程、考虑坡度 -坡向因子的辐射过程等在模式中的参数化方案 ,以及模式垂直坐标的选择越来越受重视 ,这些物理过程的描述成为业务数值模式改进的重点和  相似文献   

Simultaneous optimization of the performance of flotation circuits and their simplification using the jumping gene adaptations of genetic algorithm-II: More complex problems     

Chandan Guria  Mohan Varma  Surya P. Mehrotra  Santosh K. Gupta 《International Journal of Mineral Processing》2006

The binary-coded elitist non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm with the modified jumping gene operator (NSGA-II-mJG) is used to obtain global optimal solutions of flotation circuits. Several single-objective and multi-objective optimization problems are solved using the interconnecting cell linkage parameters (fraction flow rates) and the mean cell residence times as the decision variables. In the single-objective problem, the overall recovery of the concentrate stream is maximized for a desired grade of the concentrate. Two two-objective optimization problems are then solved. In one, the number of non-linking streams and the overall recovery of the concentrate are maximized simultaneously. This gives several simple circuits in a systematic manner with only marginally lower recoveries. In the other two-objective optimization problem, the overall recovery of the concentrate is maximized while the total cell volume is minimized. A three-objective problem (maximization of the overall recovery of the concentrate, maximization of the number of non-linking streams and minimization of the total cell volume) is then solved. All the problems constrain the grade of the product to lie at a fixed value. Finally, a complex and computationally intensive four-objective optimization problem is solved. The solution of several practical optimization problems in this study helps develop useful insights into the optimal solutions.  相似文献   

Reduced-order optimal control of water flooding using proper orthogonal decomposition   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jorn F. M. van Doren  Renato Markovinović  Jan-Dirk Jansen 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(1):137-158

Model-based optimal control of water flooding generally involves multiple reservoir simulations, which makes it into a time-consuming process. Furthermore, if the optimization is combined with inversion, i.e., with updating of the reservoir model using production data, some form of regularization is required to cope with the ill-posedness of the inversion problem. A potential way to address these issues is through the use of proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), also known as principal component analysis, Karhunen–Loève decomposition or the method of empirical orthogonal functions. POD is a model reduction technique to generate low-order models using ‘snapshots’ from a forward simulation with the original high-order model. In this work, we addressed the scope to speed up optimization of water-flooding a heterogeneous reservoir with multiple injectors and producers. We used an adjoint-based optimal control methodology that requires multiple passes of forward simulation of the reservoir model and backward simulation of an adjoint system of equations. We developed a nested approach in which POD was first used to reduce the state space dimensions of both the forward model and the adjoint system. After obtaining an optimized injection and production strategy using the reduced-order system, we verified the results using the original, high-order model. If necessary, we repeated the optimization cycle using new reduced-order systems based on snapshots from the verification run. We tested the methodology on a reservoir model with 4050 states (2025 pressures, 2025 saturations) and an adjoint model of 4050 states (Lagrange multipliers). We obtained reduced-order models with 20–100 states only, which produced almost identical optimized flooding strategies as compared to those obtained using the high-order models. The maximum achieved reduction in computing time was 35%.  相似文献   

Numerical simulations of the bi-level and branched structure of intracloud lightning flashes   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

TAN Yongbo  TAO Shanchang  ZHU Baoyou  MA Ming  LU Weitao 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2006,49(6):661-672

Intracloud (IC) lightning is used to mean those lightning flashes which channels do not strike the ground. It is an important scientific problem to inves-tigate the IC flash features and the discharge physics.Measurements from the electric field change arrange-ment[1,2] and VHF radiation events[3,4] have provided ample evidence that IC flashes have branches with substantial horizontal extents. The VHF interferomet-662 Science in China: Series D Earth Sciences ric observations[5] also s…  相似文献   

Numerical Simulations of the Physical Process for Hailstone Growth     

FANG Wen  ZHENG Guoguang  HU Zhijin 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2005,19(1):93-101

1. IntroductionTheoretical and experimental studies on the phys-ical processes of hail growth (Schumann, 1938; Lud-lan, 1958; List, 1963) showed that its growth rate andstructural characteristics depend on the heat and masstransfers; its dynamic characteristics determine hail-stone's movement and stay in clouds and damage doneto ground bodies, actually controlling the growth in-side clouds. As we know, the heat transfers affectsdirectly hailstone's wet growth, melting and evapo-ration. In the…  相似文献   

Cellular modelling in fluvial geomorphology     

Andrew P. Nicholas 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2005,30(5):645-649

This paper outlines the principles of cellular modelling in fluvial geomorphology and addresses issues of model formulation and validation in the context of numerical modelling more generally. In doing so it seeks to highlight the prospects for using cellular approaches to develop an improved understanding of both rivers and models. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Multiobjective optimization for performance‐based seismic design of steel moment frame structures     

Min Liu  Scott A. Burns  Y. K. Wen 《地震工程与结构动力学》2005,34(3):289-306

The performance‐based seismic design of steel special moment‐resisting frame (SMRF) structures is formulated as a multiobjective optimization problem, in which conflicting design criteria that respectively reflect the present capital investment and the future seismic risk are treated simultaneously as separate objectives other than stringent constraints. Specifically, the initial construction expenses are accounted for by the steel material weight as well as by the number of different standard steel section types, the latter roughly quantifying the degree of design complexity related additional construction cost; the seismic risk is considered in terms of maximum interstory drift demands at two hazard levels with exceedance probabilities being 50% and 2% in 50 years, respectively. The present formulation allows structural engineers to find an optimized design solution by explicitly striving for a desirable compromise between the initial investment and seismic performance. Member sizing for code‐compliant design of a planar five‐story four‐bay SMRF is presented as an application example using the proposed procedure that is automated by a multiobjective genetic algorithm. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

三峡库区坡地资源优化利用模式与途径   总被引：12，自引：1，他引：12  

廖和平  邓旭升  卢艳霞 《山地学报》2005,23(2):197-202

三峡库区土地资源以山丘地为主,耕地又以坡旱地为主。其中>2 5°的陡坡耕地为2 6 7×10 4hm2 ,占库区耕地总量的18.2 %。研究表明,三峡库区粮食产量的5 6 %来自坡耕地,同时库区泥沙量的6 6 %也来自坡耕地。三峡大坝蓄水,移民后靠安置,对坡耕地利用的压力更大。坡地资源的优化利用,在库区农业生产、移民安置,以及生态环境建设方面都具有重要的意义和价值。基于土地资源优化利用原理和生态设计的理念,提出库区土地资源优化利用应突出生态效益、经济主导、产业协调、区域特色等4种模式,并针对当前库区土地资源利用中的主要问题,提出了相应的优化利用途径和对策  相似文献   

边坡位移监测的若干技术问题   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

丁继新 《水文地质工程地质》2007,34(5):110-114

本文探讨了影响边坡位移监测精度的若干主要技术问题,认为只有选择恰当的地表位移监测基准,并对监测方案、监测站的布设和监测周期的设计等技术问题进行优化,才能满足边坡变形监测的要求。因此本文在此基础上,建议使用多种监测手段,建立立体监测系统,同时监测地表和地下位移,有助于全面反映边坡的变形破坏情况,从而为边坡的稳定性分析和滑坡预测预报提供科学依据。  相似文献   

无限终端线性二次调节器最优输出反馈律     

张雷  曾蓉 《成都理工学院学报》2007,34(6):653-656

线性二次调节器问题在现代控制理论中占有重要地位。该文针对状态调节器最优反馈律结构复杂、不便工程实现等问题，着重讨论了无限终端带有输出方程的状态调节器的最优输出反馈律，还跟踪讨论了无限终端输出调节器的最优反馈律。所得结论可降低调节器的复杂程度，便于工程实现。  相似文献