基于随机集合的非传统型有效波极值模型   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHANG Yi  LAM Jasmine Siu Lee 《海洋学报(英文版)》2014,33(7):125-130

The analysis and design of offshore structures necessitates the consideration of wave loads. Realistic modeling of wave loads is particularly important to ensure reliable performance of these structures. Among the available methods for the modeling of the extreme significant wave height on a statistical basis, the peak over threshold method has attracted most attention. This method employs Poisson process to character- ize time-varying properties in the parameters of an extreme value distribution. In this paper, the peak over threshold method is reviewed and extended to account for subjectivity in the modeling. The freedom in selecting the threshold and the time span to separate extremes from the original time series data is incorpo- rated as imprecision in the model. This leads to an extension from random variables to random sets in the probabilistic model for the extreme significant wave height. The extended model is also applied to different periods of the sampled data to evaluate the significance of the climatic conditions on the uncertainties of the parameters.  相似文献   

2010年6月中国南方持续性强降水过程：天气系统演变和青藏高原热力作用的影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

李雪松  罗亚丽  管兆勇 《气象学报》2014,72(3):428-446

2010年6月中国南方发生持续性强降水,其强度与2008年6月相当,超过近年来其他年份。但是,与2008年6月相比,2010年6月对流层中低层低值系统活动在青藏高原至长江中下游地区异常频繁,副热带高压(副高)位置异常偏西、强度偏强,导致低层异常风场辐合区及强降水区域相对偏北。分析2010年6月14—24日中国南方连续出现的4次持续性强降水过程,发现南亚高压、对流层中层的中纬度槽脊和西太平洋副高以及低层切变线和东移低涡是造成持续性强降水的主要天气系统。利用WRF模式对2010年6月强降水过程实施显式对流集合模拟试验,在控制试验重现观测到的地面降水和天气系统特征的基础上,在敏感性试验中将青藏高原的地表短波反照率修改为1.0,对比两组模拟试验的结果表明:控制试验中青藏高原的地表感热加热作用使得高原及其周边地区的大气温度发生变化,相应的热成风平衡调整使得对流层低层至高层大气环流和天气系统特征发生显著变化,增强了中国南方的持续性降水。200 hPa青藏高原西部形成反气旋性环流异常,东部形成气旋性环流异常,青藏高原东部南下的冷空气加强,中国南方辐散增强;500 hPa青藏高原北部的脊加强,中国东部的槽加深,副高西北侧的西南风明显增强,从青藏高原向下游传播的正涡度也显著加强;850 hPa的低涡强烈发展并逐步东移,华南沿海的西南低空急流更为强盛,导致降水区的水汽辐合、上升运动及降水强度都增强。  相似文献   

大尺度环流的年代际变化对初夏华南持续性暴雨的影响   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

刘蕾  孙颖  张蓬勃 《气象学报》2014,72(4):690-702

利用1961-2010年中国逐日降水数据和NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料集,研究了大尺度环流的年代际变化对不同频发年代华南持续性暴雨的影响。结果表明,虽然过去50年里华南持续性暴雨的发生存在两个频发时段(20世纪60年代中期到70年代中期、20世纪90年代初到2010年),其典型环流配置都表现为中高纬度冷空气和低纬度充沛水汽的配合,但不同频发时段的大尺度环流配置明显不同,这种配置使得两个频发时段的暴雨发生特点有所不同,最近20年的暴雨发生次数更多,强度更强,持续时间更长。在频发的1964-1976年,高纬度的冷空气主要来自西西伯利亚上空深厚的低槽前部,而此时南亚高压偏弱,西太平洋副热带高压偏弱、偏东,低纬度的水汽主要来自孟加拉湾印缅低压槽前,可降水量偏小,但垂直速度较大,水汽辐合较旺盛,华南上空大气环流较不稳定;在频发的1991-2010年,鄂霍次克海上空附近的高压脊活跃,高纬度冷空气主要来自高压后部,低纬度西太平洋副热带高压偏强,位置偏西,其西北侧的水汽源源不断输送到华南上空,故可降水量增多,伴随着强大的南亚高压提供的良好的高层辐散条件,华南上空垂直速度增大,水汽辐合明显,强有利的环流配置导致1991-2010年华南持续性暴雨强度更大、范围更广。因此,大气环流的年代际转型使得华南持续性暴雨发生了巨大改变,故在未来做预测时应充分考虑不同年代际环流背景场对华南持续性暴雨的重要影响。  相似文献   

粗粒土大三轴试验研究综述     

石振明  赵晓伟  彭铭 《工程地质学报》2014,22(5):792-796

自然界中广泛分布粗粒土,其具有压实密度大、良好透水性、抗剪强度高、沉降变形小、不易产生地震液化等优良的工程特性,已被广泛运用于土石坝工程建设中。本文在阅读大量参考文献的基础上概括和总结了粗粒土大三轴试验研究进展情况,包括抗剪强度、变形特性、应力-应变关系特性、试验中的若干问题,并结合已有认识,提出了笔者一些自己的思考,指出了今后关于粗粒土的研究方向。  相似文献   

A constitutive model for unsaturated soils with consideration of inter-particle bonding     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2014

The paper presents a physically-based constitutive model for unsaturated soils that considers the bonding effect of water menisci at inter-particle contacts. A bonding factor has been used to represent the magnitude of the equivalent bonding stress, defined as the bonding force per unit cross-sectional area. The average skeleton stress is employed to represent the effect of average fluid pressures within soil pores. Based on an empirical relationship between the bonding factor ζ and the ratio e/e_s (where e and e_s are void ratios at unsaturated and saturated states, respectively, at the same average skeleton stress), we propose an elasto-plastic constitutive model for isotropic stress states, and then extend this model to triaxial stress states within the framework of critical state soil mechanics. Because only one yield surface is needed in the proposed model, a relatively small number of parameters are required. Comparisons between experimental data and model results show that, in most cases, the proposed model can reasonably capture the important features of unsaturated soil behavior.  相似文献   

Discrete modeling of strain accumulation in granular soils under low amplitude cyclic loading     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2014

An advanced understanding of the strain accumulation phenomenon in granular soils subjected to low amplitude cyclic loading with relatively high frequency is needed to enhance the ability to predict the settlement of granular soils induced by vibrations. In the current study, the discrete element method is used to study this phenomenon. A loose and a medium dense sample composed of a relatively large number of spheres are considered. A series of stress controlled cyclic triaxial tests with different excitation amplitudes and frequencies is performed on these samples at different static stress states. The response of these samples at the macroscopic and microscopic scales is analyzed. The sample density, the cyclic stress amplitude and the static stress state importantly affect strain accumulation. However, the cyclic excitation frequency has a small effect on strain accumulation. At the microscopic scale, frictional sliding occurring at a few contacts continuously dissipates energy and the fraction of these contacts varies periodically during cyclic loading. The coordination number of these samples increases slightly as strain accumulates. However, the anisotropy remains almost constant during low amplitude cyclic excitation. A qualitatively good agreement between numerical and experimental results is found.  相似文献   

基于机器学习模型的区域土壤重金属空间预测精度比较研究     

金昭  吕建树 《地理研究》2022,41(6):1731-1747

为识别区域土壤重金属的空间变异特征并厘清其影响因素,本研究构建了多元线性回归（MLR）、弹性网络回归（ENR）、随机森林（RF）、随机梯度提升（SGB）、堆叠（stacking）集成模型、反向传播神经网络（BP-ANN）、基于模型平均的神经网络集成（avNNet）、线性核支持向量机（SVM-L）和高斯核支持向量机（SVM-R）共九种机器学习模型,利用山东省中部土壤重金属（Cd、Cu、Hg、Pb和Zn）和环境辅助变量数据,开展区域土壤重金属空间预测精度比较研究。结果表明：RF对五种重金属空间预测的决定系数（R²）介于0.263~0.448之间,平均绝对误差（MAE）和均方根误差（RMSE）分别小于8.408和10.636,预测值/实际值（P/O）均接近于1,对五种重金属的预测效果均较为理想,是研究区土壤重金属空间预测的最优模型;SVM-R整体预测性能仅次于RF,各项精度评价指标均相对稳健,可作为备选模型;其余七种模型的预测性能均明显低于RF和SVM-R。RF的空间预测结果显示,研究区五种重金属呈现出相似的空间分布格局,含量均由研究区东北部向西南部递减,包括东北部、北部和南部3个高值区,且高值区与当地工业–交通密集区的分布格局一致,反映出人类活动是研究区土壤重金属空间分异的主要影响因素。本研究可为区域土壤污染调查、评价和管控提供科学参考。  相似文献   

Using modified state surface approach to select parameter values in the Barcelona basic model     

Xiong Zhang  Ming Xiao 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(12):1847-1866

The Barcelona basic model (BBM) successfully explained many key features of unsaturated soils and received extensive acceptance. It is also one of the few elastoplastic constitutive models for unsaturated soils that have been implemented within finite element codes and applied to the analysis of real boundary value problems. The BBM was proposed in incremental forms according to theories of soil plasticity in which individual aspects of the isotropic virgin behavior are controlled by multiple parameters, whereas at the same time, a single parameter controls more than one aspect of soil behavior. Although a variety of methods have been recently developed for calibrating model parameters for elastoplastic soil models, at present, there are no well‐established, simple, and objective methods for selecting parameter values in the BBM from laboratory tests. This has been one of the major obstacles to the dissemination of this constitutive model beyond the research context. This article presents an optimization approach especially developed for simple and objective identification of material parameters in the BBM. This is achieved by combining a modified state surface approach, recently proposed to model the elastoplastic behavior of unsaturated soils under isotropic stress conditions, with the Newton or quasi‐Newton method to simultaneously determine the five parameters governing isotropic virgin behavior in the BBM. The comparison between results using the proposed method and an existing method for the same laboratory tests was discussed from which the simplicity and objectivity of the proposed method were evaluated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of the FEBEX multi‐barrier system including thermoplasticity of unsaturated bentonite     

Fabrice Dupray  Bertrand François  Lyesse Laloui 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(4):399-422

Deep geological repository involving a multibarrier system constitutes one of the most promising options for isolating high‐level radioactive waste from the human environment. To certify the efficiency of waste isolation, it is essential to understand the behaviour of confining geomaterial under a variety of environmental conditions. To this end, results from a near‐to‐real experiment, the full‐scale engineered barriers in situ experiment, are studied by means of a thermo–hydro–mechanical finite element approach, including a consistent thermoplastic constitutive model for unsaturated soils. Laboratory tests are simulated to calibrate model parameters. The results of the numerical simulations are compared with sensor measurements and show the ability of the model to reproduce the main behavioural features of the system. The influence of the hysteretic and temperature‐dependent retention of water on the mechanical response is exhibited. Finally, those results are interpreted in the light of thermoplasticity of unsaturated soils, which reveals the highly coupled and non‐linear characters of the processes encountered. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Flood seasonality‐based regionalization methods: a data‐based comparison     

Ali Sarhadi  Reza Modarres 《水文研究》2011,25(23):3613-3624

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