Interevent Time Distribution in Seismicity: A Theoretical Approach     

G. Molchan 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(6-7):1135-1150

This paper presents an analysis of the distribution of the time τ between two consecutive events in a stationary point process. The study is motivated by the discovery of unified scaling laws for τ for the case of seismic events. We demonstrate that these laws cannot exist simultaneously in a seismogenic area. Under very natural assumptions we show that if, after rescaling to ensure Eτ =1, the interevent time has a universal distribution F, then F must be exponential. In other words, Corral’s unified scaling law cannot exist in the whole range of time. In the framework of a general cluster model we discuss the parameterization of an empirical unified law and the physical meaning of the parameters involved. An erratum to this article is available at .  相似文献   

A Possible Detection of the 26 December 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands Earthquake with Solution Products of the International GNSS Service   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. Kouba 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2005,49(4):463-483

The main goal of this work is to critically review the IGS solution products and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) in order to demonstrate their potential to contribute to studies of large earthquakes such as the one that devastated Southeast Asia on December 26th, 2004. In view of a possible detection of the Mw 9.0 Sumatra-Andaman Islands Earthquake of December 26, 2004, position solutions, ranging from intervals of years to one second, of four International GNSS Service (IGS) stations within 3000 km of the epicenter were examined. The IGS combined, cumulative solution product (IGS04P51), consisting of epoch and station velocity solutions and based on data spans of several years prior to the earthquake, was used as a reference. Four IGS combined weekly position solutions (igs04P1301-4), two weeks before and after the earthquake, were utilized for the weekly solution resolution. PPP static and kinematic solutions with IGS Final combined orbits and clocks were used for the mean daily and instantaneous 5-min and 1-sec epoch solutions, respectively. The most significant changes, detected by both weekly and daily solutions occurred in longitude. The nearest IGS station ntus, about 1000 km east of the epicenter, moved westward about 15 mm, while the more distant Indian station iisc (∼ 2300 km NW from the epicenter), shifted about 15 mm eastward. In spite of position errors caused by interpolation of the 5-min IGS clocks, the 1-sec solutions, based on separate data sets, available only for two stations (iisc, dgar), still showed seismic surface waves, in particular at the Indian station iisc. Precise daily IGS combined polar motion and length-of-day products, after correcting for the atmospheric effects, also likely detected, statistically significant, anomalistic excitations on December 26, 2004 that could be caused by this great earthquake.  相似文献   

SEDIMENT TRANSPORT, DELTA GROWTH AND SEDIMENTATION IN LAKE NIGARDSVATN, NORWAY     

GUNNAR ØSTREM  NILS HAAKENSEN  HANS CHR. OLSEN 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2005,87(1):243-258

ABSTRACT. The retreat of Nigardsbreen, an outlet glacier from the ice-cap Jostedalsbreen in south-central Norway, from its largest extent during the Little Ice Age, uncovered a proglacial lake during 1936–1967. This lake, Nigardsvatn, has been studied since 1968 in order to obtain data on solid material carried by the meltwater stream from the glacier, both in suspension and as bottom load. Between 70 and 85% of the suspended sediment has been deposited on the lake bottom, forming annual varves. The coarse material has been deposited in a delta, the formation of which started in 1968. Its growth, and hence the volume of total annual bottom load, has been surveyed annually for the past 36 years. In 1969 the entire bottom load was collected by building a fence-like net across the river. Material >3 cm was caught by this net, and formed approximately half the amount of suspended sediment transport during the same three-week period. Annual average deposition on the delta was 11800×10³ kg for the period 1968–2003. This is almost the same amount as carried in suspension from the glacier on an annual mean basis for the 36-year period. If conditions remain constant, the lake will be completely filled in about 500 years. The glacier erosion is calculated to be 0.3 mm/a.  相似文献   

沉降-时间曲线呈“S”型的证明及其应用——从土体本构关系   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

梅国雄  宰金珉  殷宗泽  赵维炳 《岩土力学》2005,(Z1)

从土体本构关系出发,严格证明了在线性加载或近似线性加载情况下(这和岩土工程实际加载相类似),沉降-时间曲线呈“S”型,并由此建立了新的沉降-时间预测模型,工程应用证明了该模型的合理性。  相似文献   

Proof of settlement-time curve appearing “S” shape with ramp load and its application base on stress-strain relationship   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

MEI Guo-xiong  ZAI Jin-min  YIN Zong-ze  ZHAO Wei-bing 《岩土力学》2005,26(Z1):21-24

Based on stress-strain relationship of soil, the proof is made for that s-t curve appears “S” shape when the load is increased linearly, which is similar to construction process. A new model of forecasting the relation of settlement-time is presented. Case history shows the rationality of the method.  相似文献   

Temporal and spatial variations in water flow and sediment load in Narmada River Basin, India: natural and man-made factors   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Harish Gupta  G. J. Chakrapani 《Environmental Geology》2005,48(4-5):579-589

The Narmada River flows through the Deccan volcanics and transports water and sediments to the adjacent Arabian Sea. In a first-ever attempt, spatial and temporal (annual, seasonal, monthly and daily) variations in water discharge and sediment loads of Narmada River and its tributaries and the probable causes for these variations are discussed. The study has been carried out with data from twenty-two years of daily water discharge at nineteen locations and sediment concentrations data at fourteen locations in the entire Narmada River Basin. Water flow in the river is a major factor influencing sediment loads in the river. The monsoon season, which accounts for 85 to 95% of total annual rainfall in the basin, is the main source of water flow in the river. Almost 85 to 98% of annual sediment loads in the river are transported during the monsoon season (June to November). The average annual sediment flux to the Arabian Sea at Garudeshwar (farthest downstream location) is 34.29×10⁶ t year⁻¹ with a water discharge of 23.57 km³ year⁻¹. These numbers are the latest and revised estimates for Narmada River. Water flow in the river is influenced by rainfall, catchment area and groundwater inputs, whereas rainfall intensity, geology/soil characteristics of the catchment area and presence of reservoirs/dams play a major role in sediment discharge. The largest dam in the basin, namely Sardar Sarovar Dam, traps almost 60–80% of sediments carried by the river before it reaches the Arabian Sea.  相似文献   

Snow loads on wire mesh and cable net rockfall slope protection systems     

Shanzhi Shu  Thomas C. Badger 《Engineering Geology》2005,81(1):15-31

Snow load on mesh systems is complicated by many factors. This paper presents field instrumentation data on snow load variation with temperature, snowfall and snow depth on a mesh system. It was found that snow load pattern on mesh systems changed with temperature even without variation in snow depth. It reached its maximum value when the temperature rose just above freezing to melt the interface. The field data was used to formulate appropriate snow load models for the various conditions of temperature in the field. The snow load models were used to study the performance of a number of mesh systems in North America and estimate the interface friction that was prevalent for the different surface conditions.  相似文献   

Implicit integration under mixed controls of a breakage model for unsaturated crushable soils          下载免费PDF全文

Yida Zhang  Giuseppe Buscarnera 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(6):887-918

This paper discusses a series of stress point algorithms for a breakage model for unsaturated granular soils. Such model is characterized by highly nonlinear coupling terms introduced by breakage‐dependent hydro‐mechanical energy potentials. To integrate accurately and efficiently its constitutive equations, specific algorithms have been formulated using a backward Euler scheme. In particular, because implementation and verification of unsaturated soil models often require the use of mixed controls, the incorporation of various hydro‐mechanical conditions has been tackled. First, it is shown that the degree of saturation can be replaced with suction in the constitutive equations through a partial Legendre transformation of the energy potentials, thus changing the thermomechanical state variables and enabling a straightforward implementation of a different control mode. Then, to accommodate more complex control scenarios without redefining the energy potentials, a hybrid strategy has been used, combining the return mapping scheme with linearized constraints. It is shown that this linearization strategy guarantees similar levels of accuracy compared with a conventional strain–suction‐controlled implicit integration. In addition, it is shown that the use of linearized constraints offers the possibility to use the same framework to integrate a variety of control conditions (e.g., net stress and/or water‐content control). The convergence profiles indicate that both schemes preserve the advantages of implicit integration, that is, asymptotic quadratic convergence and unconditional stability. Finally, the performance of the two implicit schemes has been compared with that of an explicit algorithm with automatic sub‐stepping and error control, showing that for the selected breakage model, implicit integration leads to a significant reduction of the computational cost. Such features support the use of the proposed hybrid scheme also in other modeling contexts, especially when strongly nonlinear models have to be implemented and/or validated by using non‐standard hydro‐mechanical control conditions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Development of a soil moisture‐based distributed hydrologic model for determining hydrologically based critical source areas          下载免费PDF全文

Sisi Li  Margaret Gitau  David Bosch  Bernard A. Engel  Liang Zhang  Yun Du 《水文研究》2017,31(20):3543-3557

A simple grid cell‐based distributed hydrologic model was developed to provide spatial information on hydrologic components for determining hydrologically based critical source areas. The model represents the critical process (soil moisture variation) to run‐off generation accounting for both local and global water balance. In this way, it simulates both infiltration excess run‐off and saturation excess run‐off. The model was tested by multisite and multivariable evaluation on the 50‐km² Little River Experimental Watershed I in Georgia, U.S. and 2 smaller nested subwatersheds. Water balance, hydrograph, and soil moisture were simulated and compared to observed data. For streamflow calibration, the daily Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.78 at the watershed outlet and 0.56 and 0.75 at the 2 nested subwatersheds. For the validation period, the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.79 at the watershed outlet and 0.85 and 0.83 at the 2 subwatersheds. The per cent bias was less than 15% for all sites. For soil moisture, the model also predicted the rising and declining trends at 4 of the 5 measurement sites. The spatial distribution of surface run‐off simulated by the model was mainly controlled by local characteristics (precipitation, soil properties, and land cover) on dry days and by global watershed characteristics (relative position within the watershed and hydrologic connectivity) on wet days when saturation excess run‐off was simulated. The spatial details of run‐off generation and travel time along flow paths provided by the model are helpful for watershed managers to further identify critical source areas of non‐point source pollution and develop best management practices.  相似文献   

A new magnitude category disaggregation approach for temporal high‐resolution rainfall intensities          下载免费PDF全文

Muhammad Rehan Anis  Michael Rode 《水文研究》2015,29(6):1119-1128

Simulation of quick runoff components such as surface runoff and associated soil erosion requires temporal high‐resolution rainfall intensities. However, these data are often not available because such measurements are costly and time consuming. Current rainfall disaggregation methods have shortcomings, especially in generating the distribution of storm events. The objectives of this study were to improve point rainfall disaggregation using a new magnitude category rainfall disaggregation approach. The procedure is introduced using a coupled disaggregation approach (Hyetos and cascade) for multisite rainfall disaggregation. The new procedure was tested with ten long‐term precipitation data sets of central Germany using summer and winter precipitation to determine seasonal variability. Results showed that dividing the rainfall amount into four daily rainfall magnitude categories (1–10, 11–25, 26–50, >50 mm) improves the simulation of high rainfall intensity (convective rainfall). The Hyetos model category approach (Hyetos_Cat) with seasonal variation performs representative to observed hourly rainfall compared with without categories on each month. The mean absolute percentage accuracy of standard deviation for hourly rainfall is 89.7% in winter and 95.6% in summer. The proposed magnitude category method applied with the coupled Hyetos_Cat–cascade approach reproduces successfully the statistical behaviour of local 10‐min rainfall intensities in terms of intermittency as well as variability. The root mean square error performance statistics for disaggregated 10‐min rainfall depth ranges from 0.20 to 2.38 mm for summer and from 0.12 to 2.82 mm for the winter season in all categories. The coupled stochastic approach preserves the statistical self‐similarity and intermittency at each magnitude category with a relatively low computational burden. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献