Spatial data for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment: An overview   总被引：30，自引：0，他引：30  

Cees J. van Westen  Enrique Castellanos  Sekhar L. Kuriakose 《Engineering Geology》2008,102(3-4):112

The aim of this paper is to discuss a number of issues related to the use of spatial information for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The paper centers around the types of spatial data needed for each of these components, and the methods for obtaining them. A number of concepts are illustrated using an extensive spatial data set for the city of Tegucigalpa in Honduras. The paper intends to supplement the information given in the “Guidelines for Landslide Susceptibility, Hazard and Risk Zoning for Land Use Planning” by the Joint ISSMGE, ISRM and IAEG Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes (JTC-1). The last few decades have shown a very fast development in the application of digital tools such as Geographic Information Systems, Digital Image Processing, Digital Photogrammetry and Global Positioning Systems. Landslide inventory databases are becoming available to more countries and several are now also available through the internet. A comprehensive landslide inventory is a must in order to be able to quantify both landslide hazard and risk. With respect to the environmental factors used in landslide hazard assessment, there is a tendency to utilize those data layers that are easily obtainable from Digital Elevation Models and satellite imagery, whereas less emphasis is on those data layers that require detailed field investigations. A review is given of the trends in collecting spatial information on environmental factors with a focus on Digital Elevation Models, geology and soils, geomorphology, land use and elements at risk.  相似文献   

A new method of estimating the ratio between in situ rock stresses and tectonics based on empirical and probabilistic analyses   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

L.I. Gonzlez de Vallejo  T. Hijazo 《Engineering Geology》2008,101(3-4):185-194

This paper describes a new procedure for assessing the ratio between in situ stresses in rock masses by means of K (K = σ_H / σ_v, being σ_H and σ_v principal stress) and tectonics for purposes of engineering geology and rock mechanics. The method combines the use of the logic decision tree and the empirical relationship between the Tectonic Stress Index, TSI, and a series of K in situ values obtained from an extensive database. The decision tree considers geological and geophysical factors affecting stress magnitudes both on the regional and local scale. The TSI index is defined by geological and geomechanical parameters. The method proposed provides an assessment of the magnitude of horizontal stresses of tectonic origin. Results for several regions of Europe are presented and the possible applications of the procedure are discussed.  相似文献   

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?     

Jens-Uwe Klügel   《Earth》2008,88(1-2):1-32

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.  相似文献   

Global Correlations of Ocean Ridge Basalt Chemistry with Axial Depth: a New Perspective   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Niu  Yaoling; O'Hara  Michael J. 《Journal of Petrology》2008,49(4):633-664

The petrological parameters Na₈ and Fe₈, which are Na₂O andFeO contents in mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) melts correctedfor fractionation effects to MgO = 8 wt%, have been widely usedas indicators of the extent and pressure of mantle melting beneathocean ridges. We find that these parameters are unreliable.Fe₈ is used to compute the mantle solidus depth (P_o) and temperature(T_o), and it is the values and range of Fe₈ that have led tothe notion that mantle potential temperature variation of T_P= 250 K is required to explain the global ocean ridge systematics.This interpreted T_P = 250 K range applies to ocean ridges awayfrom ‘hotspots’. We find no convincing evidencethat calculated values for P_o, T_o, and T_P using Fe₈ have anysignificance. We correct for fractionation effect to Mg^# = 0·72,which reveals mostly signals of mantle processes because meltswith Mg^# = 0·72 are in equilibrium with mantle olivineof Fo_89·6 (vs evolved olivine of Fo_{88·1–79·6}in equilibrium with melts of Fe₈). To reveal first-order MORBchemical systematics as a function of ridge axial depth, weaverage out possible effects of spreading rate variation, local-scalemantle source heterogeneity, melting region geometry variation,and dynamic topography on regional and segment scales by usingactual sample depths, regardless of geographical location, withineach of 22 ridge depth intervals of 250 m on a global scale.These depth-interval averages give Fe₇₂ = 7·5–8·5,which would give T_P = 41 K (vs 250 K based on Fe₈) beneathglobal ocean ridges. The lack of Fe₇₂–Si₇₂ and Si₇₂–ridgedepth correlations provides no evidence that MORB melts preservepressure signatures as a function of ridge axial depth. We thusfind no convincing evidence for T_P > 50 K beneath globalocean ridges. The averages have also revealed significantcorrelations of MORB chemistry (e.g. Ti₇₂, Al₇₂, Fe₇₂,Mg₇₂, Ca₇₂, Na₇₂ and Ca₇₂/Al₇₂) with ridge axial depth. Thechemistry–depth correlation points to an intrinsic linkbetween the two. That is, the 5 km global ridge axial reliefand MORB chemistry both result from a common cause: subsolidusmantle compositional variation (vs T_P), which determines themineralogy, lithology and density variations that (1) isostaticallycompensate the 5 km ocean ridge relief and (2) determine thefirst-order MORB compositional variation on a global scale.A progressively more enriched (or less depleted) fertileperidotite source (i.e. high Al₂O₃ and Na₂O, and low CaO/Al₂O₃)beneath deep ridges ensures a greater amount of modal garnet(high Al₂O₃) and higher jadeite/diopside ratios in clinopyroxene(high Na₂O and Al₂O₃, and lower CaO), making a denser mantle,and thus deeper ridges. The dense fertile mantle beneath deepridges retards the rate and restricts the amplitude of the upwelling,reduces the rate and extent of decompression melting, givesway to conductive cooling to a deep level, forces melting tostop at such a deep level, leads to a short melting column,and thus produces less melt and probably a thin magmatic crustrelative to the less dense (more refractory) fertile mantlebeneath shallow ridges. Compositions of primitive MORB meltsresult from the combination of two different, but geneticallyrelated processes: (1) mantle source inheritance and (2) meltingprocess enhancement. The subsolidus mantle compositional variationneeded to explain MORB chemistry and ridge axial depth variationrequires a deep isostatic compensation depth, probably in thetransition zone. Therefore, although ocean ridges are of shalloworigin, their working is largely controlled by deep processesas well as the effect of plate spreading rate variation at shallowlevels. KEY WORDS: mid-ocean ridges; mantle melting; magma differentiation; petrogenesis; MORB chemistry variation; ridge depth variation; global correlations; mantle compositional variation; mantle source density variation; mantle potential temperature variation; isostatic compensation  相似文献   

Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939     

Gregory P. Marchildon  Suren Kulshreshtha  Elaine Wheaton  Dave Sauchyn 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(3):391-411

Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought. These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover, these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective institutional adaptation.  相似文献   

CO2地质埋存渗漏风险及补救对策   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

许志刚  陈代钊  曾荣树 《地质论评》2008,54(3):373-386

目前,将CO2埋存于地下深部地质构造（如油气藏、煤层、地下含水层及岩溶盐腔）的减排方案能有效地减缓温室效应而备受关注。无论什么储集体,我们都希望CO2在地下埋存的时间越长越好。然而,对于一项具体工程的实施,必然存在一些客观和主观因素造成CO2渗漏,比如废弃井的不完善或不合理处理、地层断裂系统和水动力系统以及地震所造成的渗漏等等。存在渗漏就可能会对周围人和生态环境造成危害。因此,进行CO2地质埋存的风险评估是相当有必要的,是我们能长期有效安全地进行该项减排方案必不可少的基础和保证。本文即想从建立一套完整的风险评估、管理和监测体系的角度并以加拿大Weyburn油田为例,深入分析CO2地质埋存中可能存在的渗漏风险和途径,建立CO2渗漏风险评估机制,并针对具体的渗漏可能性提出相应的补救对策,为全球范围内,尤其对我国刚刚开展CO2地质埋存研究工作提供一些有益的思路。  相似文献   

Implementing low-cost landslide risk reduction: a pilot study in unplanned housing areas of the Caribbean     

Malcolm Anderson  Liz Holcombe  Rob Flory  Jean-Philippe Renaud 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):297-315

Landslides pose a serious physical and environmental threat to vulnerable communities living in areas of unplanned housing on steep slopes in the Caribbean. Some of these communities have, in the past, had to be relocated, at costs of millions of dollars, because of major slides triggered by tropical storm rainfall. Even so, evidence shows that: (1) risk reduction is a marginal activity; (2) there has been minimal uptake of hazard maps and vulnerability assessments and (3) there is little on-the-ground delivery of construction for risk reduction. This article directly addresses these issues by developing a low-cost approach to the identification of the potential pore pressure changes that trigger such slides we seek to address these three commentaries directly. A complex 45–60° slope site in St Lucia, West Indies was selected as a pilot for a modelling approach that uses numerical models (FLAC and CHASM) to verify the need for surface water management to effectively reduce landslide risk. Following the model confirmation, a series of drains were designed and constructed at the site. Post-construction evidence indicates the methodology to be sound, in that the site was stable in subsequent 1-in-1 to 1-in-4 year rainfall events. A critical feature of the approach is that it is community-based from data acquisition through to community members participating in construction.  相似文献   

渤海新近系浅水三角洲沉积体系与大型油气田勘探   总被引：32，自引：8，他引：24  

朱伟林  李建平  周心怀  郭永华 《沉积学报》2008,26(4):575-582

新近纪渤海具有构造稳定、沉降缓慢、湖泊水域范围大、内部无分割、地形平缓、坡度小等特点,广泛发育浅水三角洲,从而形成渤海海域新近系良好的储盖组合和优越的油气成藏条件。浅水三角洲砂岩储层由于受河流作用的控制,砂体具有明显的方向性,存在明显的分叉现象,与曲流河相比,砂体连通性较好,砂体等厚图呈典型的朵叶状。湖相厚层泥岩普遍发育,与浅水三角洲砂体组成多套垂向优质储盖组合。浅水三角洲发育于渤海新近纪至今处于生烃的峰期主力富烃凹陷的有利区带,新构造运动造成新近纪以来凹陷主力源岩生烃峰期与新构造运动的同步耦合,为渤海大型浅水三角洲成因的优质储层油气成藏创造了优越条件,可以形成大型油气田。因此,重视并充分挖掘渤海浅水三角洲储层类型油气藏的勘探潜力将是追求浅层优质油藏、进一步增储上产的方向所在。  相似文献   

饱和粉砂不稳定性的试验研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

符新军  赵仲辉 《岩土力学》2008,29(2):381-385

通过对净砂和级配良好粉砂(含10 %粉土)进行一系列三轴固结不排水试验（CU）,研究了粉土、孔隙比和围压对饱和粉砂不稳定性的影响。试验结果表明,净砂与粉砂在不排水剪切条件下均会出现应变软化现象（即不稳定性）。同一围压下脆性指数(IB)随孔隙比增加,但不稳定线的应力比随孔隙比增加而减小。引用等效粒间孔隙比(ege)后,净砂和粉砂在ege-ln p?平面上拥有基本相同的临界状态线。在临界状态理论及等效粒间孔隙比的基础上,提出在同一修正状态参数(?ge)下净砂和级配良好粉砂有相似的不稳定性。  相似文献   

埃达克岩研究的回顾和前瞻   总被引：15，自引：1，他引：14       下载免费PDF全文

张旗 《中国地质》2008,35(1):32-39

文中回顾了中国埃达克岩研究的进展,讨论了中国埃达克岩文献为什么多的原因,归纳了我们取得的成绩及存在的问题,探讨了埃达克岩目前面临的问题和今后研究的方向。笔者认为,中国埃达克岩的研究正处于方兴未艾的阶段,是现阶段国际埃达克岩研究的焦点和中心之一。尽管发表的文章不少,但是研究水平总体不高。在埃达克岩研究中,有大量的问题等待我们去回答,有众多的现象等待我们去解释。中国东部中生代C型埃达克岩的成因、中国东部高原、埃达克岩与青藏高原抬升的关系以及C型埃达克岩与成矿的关系等,应当是今后重点需要关注的问题。  相似文献