排序方式： 共有52条查询结果，搜索用时 265 毫秒
21.
利用时间序列分析预报电离层TEC 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
以IGS发布的电离层总电子含量(total electron content,TEC)数据为样本,利用时间序列分析进行预报。将TEC时间序列分解为趋势项、周期项和随机项的组合,并利用相关系数和偏相关系数确定模型阶数。对IGS提供的2008年TEC数据进行预报分析,结果表明,采用时间序列分析能达到较高精度,预报7 d时的平均相对精度为87.75%,预报精度大于60%的预报值占所有预报值的95%以上,预报精度大于85%的预报值占所有预报值的72.6%,95.3%的预报残差小于±3 TECU。 相似文献
22.
我国城市土地供给预警与控制探讨 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
本文研究目的是利用数学模型定量化地监控城市土地供给与计划管理,达到城市土地市场供求均衡和用地结构优化,以及节约与集约利用土地的管理目标,实现城市土地利用可持续发展。研究方法采用文献资料法和模型模拟法。提出了我国城市土地供给预警与供给控制的理论和技术方法。 相似文献
23.
24.
Joy Sanyal Priyanka Dasgupta Shinjiro Kanae 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2020,41(2):284-298
Dam-related downstream adjustments of riverbeds are normally investigated by analysing the trend in sediment supply and high flow events during the pre- and post-dam periods. The required data for existing predictive models is not measured at river gauges, which limits the application of these tools. We derived the frequency of sediment-transporting streamflow events (T*) and upstream sediment supply (S*) in the pre- and post-dam periods with widely available gauged records and predicted changes in the downstream riverbed by adapting an existing model. Ten gauging stations in the Godavari River Basin, India, located downstream of dams, were chosen as study sites. Annually surveyed cross-sections at each site validated the accuracy of the predicted dam-related downstream changes. Then, a regression equation (R2 = 0.75) was established between T*/S* (independent variable) and changes in the downstream bed elevation (dependent variable) for the Godavari Basin. We recommended that similar local empirical equations be formulated for larger river basins. Models of large-scale rainfall-runoff and sediment transport processes that can account for the influence of dams, such as the Soil & Water Assessment Tool, can be paired with the proposed regression equation to estimate dam-related downstream erosion and deposition with globally available data. 相似文献
25.
略论统计分析方法的灵活运用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
统计分析是统计工作参与企业管理和提供领导决策最有成效的手段之一。统计分析有指数因素分析法和回归预测分析法。通过对统计数字和统计资料进行全面系统的分析．以揭示经济现象的本质和规律性，对提高企业管理水平和企业的经济效益，具有重要作用。 相似文献
26.
杭州城市供水85%取自钱塘江河口段,取水水质在枯水大潮期都不同程度地受到盐水入侵的威胁,分析钱塘江河口盐水入侵时空变化及研制二维数值预测模型对保障城市供水安全十分必要。根据钱塘江河口段实测水文氯度资料,分析了强潮作用下盐水入侵的时空变化特征;据此构建考虑斜压作用的二维水流、盐度输移的耦合数学模型,计算格式采用守恒性较好的有限体积法;在模型验证的基础上,数值分析了径流和潮汐对钱塘江河口段盐水入侵的影响,结果表明河口段的盐水入侵明显地受径流和潮汐的影响,据此可通过增大上游新安江水库的下泄流量抑制盐水入侵上溯以减小取水口氯度及超标时间,确保用水安全。 相似文献
27.
Two adjacent subcatchments on soils with very strong texture contrast between the A soil horizons (sandy loam texture) and B soil horizons (clay texture) in the Adelaide Hills, South Australia were instrumented to collect overland and subsurface flow from dairy pasture. Subcatchments were defined by exclusion drains in the upper reaches and stainless steel barriers at the lower boundary. Water samples were analysed for 20 different chemical fractions. Chemical loads were examined in order to determine relationships among simple empirical event and site characteristics, and between chemical fractions. All but five of the chemical fractions could be separated into one of two clear groups using a statistical technique based on the magnitude of simple correlation coefficients. The two groups consisted of either dissolved or particulate fractions. The clear separation into these groups is consistent with the majority of chemical fractions moving from pasture by one of only two processes. Simple empirical variables in a multiple regression explained a high proportion of variation in chemical loads in runoff water. These findings may have major implications in the modelling and prediction of chemical loads in runoff from agricultural catchments and the setting of environmental limits, in simplifying chemical loss predictions by adding a nutrient loss module to runoff volume predictions. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
28.
为了验证固化剂GX08加固杭州海湖相软土的效果及考察有机质对水泥固化的不利影响,对固化土的强度特性进行了试验研究。结果表明,有机质的添加会显著阻碍固化土强度的增长,而固化剂GX08能有效增强固化土的强度;固化土强度与有机质含量存在二次函数关系,与水泥掺量呈线性关系,与固化剂GX08掺量和龄期都以对数函数的形式相关;将总灰水比C/W用于固化土强度模型的建立,通过对试验数据的分析与整理,建立了同时考虑固化土中有机质含量、水泥掺量、固化剂掺量和龄期影响的固化土综合强度预测模型。最后对模型进行了推广使用,验证了模型的适用性。 相似文献
29.
在四川盆地通南巴构造带,首先以井芯、录井资料和钻井泥浆比重资料为约束条件,利用泥岩段声波测井资料建立区域“正常压实趋势线”;然后用精细速度处理获得的地震层速度剖面减去区域“正常压实趋势线”建立速度差值剖面,速度差值剖面上的异常低速带定性指示了地层超压范围;再采用速度一压力变换技术,建立压力系数剖面,定量分析地层超压,地层压力计算结果与实际钻井采用的泥浆比重较好吻合,说明利用地球物理资料、钻井资料及地质资料不但可以定性识别超压地层,而且可以定量预测地层压力;对不同压力封存箱的认识有助于分析地层含油气性延展方向,指导下一步勘探部署。 相似文献
30.
利用神经网络预测煤层底板突水 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
本文利用神经网络对已知样本进行学习。旨在预测煤层底板突水，取得了较好效果，为煤层底板突水预测提供了一条新途径。 相似文献