Unpacking ecosystem service bundles: Towards predictive mapping of synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services     

《Global Environmental Change》2017

Multiple ecosystem services (ES) can respond similarly to social and ecological factors to form bundles. Identifying key social-ecological variables and understanding how they co-vary to produce these consistent sets of ES may ultimately allow the prediction and modelling of ES bundles, and thus, help us understand critical synergies and trade-offs across landscapes. Such an understanding is essential for informing better management of multi-functional landscapes and minimising costly trade-offs. However, the relative importance of different social and biophysical drivers of ES bundles in different types of social-ecological systems remains unclear. As such, a bottom-up understanding of the determinants of ES bundles is a critical research gap in ES and sustainability science.Here, we evaluate the current methods used in ES bundle science and synthesize these into four steps that capture the plurality of methods used to examine predictors of ES bundles. We then apply these four steps to a cross-study comparison (North and South French Alps) of relationships between social-ecological variables and ES bundles, as it is widely advocated that cross-study comparisons are necessary for achieving a general understanding of predictors of ES associations. We use the results of this case study to assess the strengths and limitations of current approaches for understanding distributions of ES bundles. We conclude that inconsistency of spatial scale remains the primary barrier for understanding and predicting ES bundles. We suggest a hypothesis-driven approach is required to predict relationships between ES, and we outline the research required for such an understanding to emerge.  相似文献   

Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply: Implications of agricultural management and dietary choices     

《Global Environmental Change》2017

Human activities use more than half of accessible freshwater, above all for agriculture. Most approaches for reconciling water conservation with feeding a growing population focus on the cropping sector. However, livestock production is pivotal to agricultural resource use, due to its low resource-use efficiency upstream in the food supply chain. Using a global modelling approach, we quantify the current and future contribution of livestock production, under different demand- and supply-side scenarios, to the consumption of “green” precipitation water infiltrated into the soil and “blue” freshwater withdrawn from rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Currently, cropland feed production accounts for 38% of crop water consumption and grazing involves 29% of total agricultural water consumption (9990 km³ yr⁻¹). Our analysis shows that changes in diets and livestock productivity have substantial implications for future consumption of agricultural blue water (19–36% increase compared to current levels) and green water (26–69% increase), but they can, at best, slow down trends of rising water requirements for decades to come. However, moderate productivity reductions in highly intensive livestock systems are possible without aggravating water scarcity. Productivity gains in developing regions decrease total agricultural water consumption, but lead to expansion of irrigated agriculture, due to the shift from grassland/green water to cropland/blue water resources. While the magnitude of the livestock water footprint gives cause for concern, neither dietary choices nor changes in livestock productivity will solve the water challenge of future food supply, unless accompanied by dedicated water protection policies.  相似文献   

Past and future carbon sequestration benefits of China’s grain for green program     

《Global Environmental Change》2017

Carbon sequestration through ecological restoration programs is an increasingly important option to reduce the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. China’s Grain for Green Program (GGP) is likely the largest centrally organized land-use change program in human history and yet its carbon sequestration benefit has yet to be systematically assessed. Here we used seven empirical/statistical equations of forest biomass carbon sequestration and five soil carbon change models to estimate the total and decadal carbon sequestration potentials of the GGP during 1999–2050, including changes in four carbon pools: aboveground biomass, roots, forest floor and soil organic carbon. The results showed that the total carbon stock in the GGP-affected areas was 682 Tg C in 2010 and the accumulative carbon sink estimates induced by the GGP would be 1697, 2635, 3438 and 4115 Tg C for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, respectively. Overall, the carbon sequestration capacity of the GGP can offset about 3%–5% of China’s annual carbon emissions (calculated using 2010 emissions) and about 1% of the global carbon emissions. Afforestation by the GGP contributed about 25% of biomass carbon sinks in global carbon sequestration in 2000–2010. The results suggest that large-scale ecological restoration programs such as afforestation and reforestation could help to enhance global carbon sinks, which may shed new light on the carbon sequestration benefits of such programs in China and also in other regions.  相似文献   

Geologically constrained changes to landforms caused by human activities in the 20th century: A case study from Fukuoka Prefecture,Japan     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2017

Human activity has been recognized to be an important geomorphic agent, and the resulting changes to landforms and land cover are regarded as a global problem. Although there has been much research into the relationships between geomorphic processes and types of land use such as agriculture, mining, and urbanization, it is important to clarify spatiotemporal human impacts on topography on a regional scale when predicting future changes in land cover.This study examined changes in land use to clarify the distribution and impact of anthropogenic changes to landforms, as well as the influence of geology on the extent of these changes. In a case study from Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan, changes in land use over the last century were analyzed using a geographic information system (GIS). The study area, which covers approximately 4930 km², has experienced urban development since 1950 and has a current population of over 5 million. Land use data were prepared using paper-based early editions of topographic maps. Subsequently, the distribution of anthropogenic landforms was evaluated by comparing landforms with regional geological data.GIS analysis using our prepared land use data, landform data, and regional geological data has clarified the following characteristics of the study area. (1) Land uses prior to 1950 were constrained by topographic relief. After 1950, land use was characterized by urban sprawl. Urban areas expanded and contained both higher elevations and steeper slopes at their margins. The relationships between land uses and landforms during this urbanization are unclear. (2) The area of urban land increased in the geological regions with Paleogene sedimentary rocks (PSD) and Mesozoic granitic rocks (GR) during the 20th century. The largest coal mining area in Japan was located in the PSD geological regions, and ancient iron working was common in the GR geological regions, particularly during the 7th century. This result indicates that the land use distribution, especially urban areas in sloping terrain, is related to the regional geology. (3) Deforestation related to land use resulted in steeper terrain in forest land in the PSD and GR geological regions. These changes to landforms in forest areas occurred as a result of rapid urban sprawl and have created many new boundaries between forest areas with steeper slopes and urban areas with gentler slopes. This phenomenon may have caused an increase in the frequency of sediment-related disasters.This case study indicates that predictions of anthropogenic changes to landform, which are important for the assessment of global climate change and natural hazards, must clarify the relationships between land uses, landforms, and regional geology.  相似文献   

Four decades of urban sprawl and population growth in Teresina,Brazil     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2017

The expansion of medium-sized cities in Brazil has increased significantly since the 80–90's decades. In that period, most of the urbanization process was represented by the agglomeration of the population in the major metropolitan areas such as São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Nowadays, the rural-urban movement in Brazil is predominantly affecting cities with less than 1 million inhabitants, located particularly in the Center-West and in the Semiarid Northeast regions. The city of Teresina, the capital and largest city of the Brazilian state of Piauí, is one example that has shown an accelerated process of urban development. In this context, this paper seeks to discuss the urban sprawl of Teresina over the last four decades (1974–2014), associating its trends of urban expansion and population growth with their social and environmental implications. The results of our work indicate that urban sprawl in Teresina has been continuous over the years and getting faster in the 2010–2014 period. High demographic density areas are located mostly in peripheral zones, where the low-income population dominates. The population density varies across the city, and it is far from the standard proposed by the urban legislation. Thus, urbanization in Teresina is characterized by the sprawl of its municipal boundaries, intra-urban densification and verticalization, and an increase in population, especially in areas of low-income neighborhoods.  相似文献   

Linked to Landscape: Assessing Urbanization in Germany through Landscape and Economic Factors     

Rose Keller  Colin Vance 《The Professional geographer》2017,69(3):424-437

The ongoing encroachment of urban land into natural landscapes has resulted in the degradation of ecosystems throughout Europe. Understanding why the share of urban land has increased is important for managing urban growth and maintaining ecosystem services. We estimate a model of landscape change that integrates geospatial and socioeconomic data in a spatial autoregressive model to explain the variance in urban growth observed in Germany between 2000 and 2006. In doing so, we test several determinants of urbanization identified by theoretical frameworks from landscape ecology and economics, including landscape pattern and transit infrastructure. The results show that despite planning guidelines and policies to promote dense development, urban growth has been extensive. Regions with a high degree of fragmented land and the prevalence of environmental amenities are characterized by particularly strong growth, pointing to challenges in crafting landscape policies that balance economic development with environmental conservation.  相似文献   

气候变化对北方农牧交错带界线变迁影响的定量探测方法研究   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

史文娇  刘奕婷  石晓丽 《地理学报》2017,72(3):407-419

气候对北方农牧交错带界线变迁的定量影响是目前生态脆弱敏感区对气候变化响应领域的研究热点问题。前人已在气候变化对农牧交错带界线的定性影响方面有较为深刻的认识,但仍缺乏在时间和空间上对气候贡献率进行有针对性的定量辨识。本文利用1970年以来长时间序列的国家气象站点数据和土地利用遥感解译数据,分别提取了基于气候要素和土地利用的20世纪70年代、80年代、90年代和21世纪前10年4个时期的北方农牧交错带界线,通过垂直和水平方向变动探测方法（FishNet）和界线变迁方向变动探测方法（DSAS）对气候界线与土地利用界线的时空变化进行探测,定量分析了不同时期气候对农牧交错带界线变迁影响的贡献率。结果表明,气候与土地利用界线空间分布格局及气候贡献率在不同时期、不同区域差异较大,在西北地区变幅最小,东北地区变幅最大。在大兴安岭东南缘农田控制水源涵养生态功能区西北段以及内蒙古高原东南缘农、林、牧业生态—生产功能区西北段,气候与土地利用界线空间耦合关系最为密切,在该地区基于FishNet方法下水平方向上气候贡献率达10.7%~44.4%,垂直方向上达4.7%~55.9%;基于DSAS方法下气候贡献率为1.1%~16.8%。两种方法探测结果大部分趋于一致,但DSAS方法精度高,适用于小范围精确探测;FishNet方法更简单,适用于精度要求不高、快速直观的统计分析。本研究可为北方农牧交错带内农牧业生产适应气候变化、合理开发土地生产潜力、保护农牧交错带区内生态环境提供科学依据和指导。  相似文献   

Integrating the system dynamic and cellular automata models to predict land use and land cover change     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2016

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) is a widely researched topic in related studies. A number of models have been established to simulate LULCC patterns. However, the integration of the system dynamic (SD) and the cellular automata (CA) model have been rarely employed in LULCC simulations, although it allows for combining the advantages of each approach and therefore improving the simulation accuracy. In this study, we integrated an SD model and a CA model to predict LULCC under three future development scenarios in Northern Shanxi province of China, a typical agro-pastoral transitional zone. The results indicated that our integrated approach represented the impacts of natural and socioeconomic factors on LULCC well, and could accurately simulate the magnitude and spatial pattern of LULCC. The modeling scenarios illustrated that different development pathways would lead to various LULCC patterns. This study demonstrated the advantages of the integration approach for simulating LULCC and suggests that LULCC is affected to a large degree by natural and socioeconomic factors.  相似文献   

SRTM约束的无地面控制立体影像区域网平差   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

周平  唐新明  曹宁  王霞  李国元  张恒 《测绘学报》2016,45(11):1318-1327

针对SRTM(shuttle radar topography mission)数据在平坦地形或局部区域的高程精度远远高于其标称精度的特点,研究设计了一种无地面控制条件下利用SRTM作为高程约束的立体区域网平差方法。通过构建一个较大范围区域网并匹配密集连接点,将SRTM作为连接点物方高程初值,并在平差解算过程中确保分布于地形平坦区域(根据经验,在该类区域SRTM精度较高)的连接点的物方高程严格趋近SRTM高程,最终实现大范围区域内影像高程精度的整体提升。通过以覆盖湖北省全境的资源三号卫星三线阵立体影像作为试验影像的试验验证表明,采用该平差方案,在无地面控制点条件下资源三号立体影像的高程中误差从7.2m提升到2.0m,其中地形平坦区域高程中误差1.44m,山地区域高程中误差3.0m,达到了我国1∶25 000比例尺测图应用的高程精度要求。  相似文献   

土地资源遥感应用研究进展   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

张增祥  汪潇  温庆可  赵晓丽  刘芳  左丽君  胡顺光  徐进勇  易玲  刘斌 《遥感学报》2016,20(5):1243-1258

遥感数据与土地资源在时空特性方面具有高度的一致性,土地资源研究长期是遥感应用的主要领域之一。过去数十年来,国内外开展了大量的土地资源与环境遥感应用研究,遥感技术为土地资源研究提供了丰富的信息源和实现手段,拓展了土地资源的研究内容,强化了土地资源的研究程度。随着遥感技术的发展和应用研究的深入,针对日益多样化的实际需求,创新研究方法,加强与传统学科的有机结合,在提取系列化专题信息基础上,开展不同时空尺度的综合性分析与评估,切实满足全球变化研究和实现区域可持续发展的需要,仍然是土地资源遥感应用研究应该关注的主要发展方向。  相似文献