How Accurate are Disaster Loss Data? The Case of U.S. Flood Damage     

MARY W. DOWNTON  ROGER A. PIELKE 《Natural Hazards》2005,35(2):211-228

Policy makers need accurate disaster loss data for decisions about disaster assistance, policy evaluation, and scientific research priorities. But loss estimation is difficult in a disaster situation, and initial loss estimates are seldom evaluated in comparison with actual costs. This paper uses the example of historical flood damage data in the U.S. to evaluate disaster loss data. It evaluates the accuracy of historical flood damage estimates from two federal agencies. The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) has compiled annual flood loss estimates for each state since 1955. Comparison of the NWS data with similar estimates from five state emergency management agencies reveals substantial disagreement between estimates from different sources. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) began in the 1990s to systematically collect damage estimates and cost data associated with its disaster assistance programs. Comparison of early damage estimates with actual expenditures in a California flood disaster reveals large errors in some estimates for individual counties, but no statistically significant tendency to underestimate or overestimate. Positive and negative errors tend to average out and the total damage estimate for the state approximates the final expenditures. Both comparisons indicate that damage estimates for small events or local jurisdictions often are extremely inaccurate. On the other hand, estimates aggregated over large areas or long time periods appear to be reasonably reliable; that is, this study finds that independent estimates for events with losses greater than $500 million disagree by less than 40. The paper suggests ways of interpreting and using such loss estimates to reduce the likelihood of misinterpretation.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

居住用途宗地集约利用潜力微观评价探讨——以福州市为例     

肖宝玉  张文开  章牧 《福建地理》2006,(4)

对福州市6宗典型居住用途宗地的容积率、建筑密度、人均用地面积、公共服务设施、绿地率等方面进行调查,采用模糊数学法、专家咨询法等对居住用地的集约利用潜力进行定量和定性评价,确定每宗土地的集约利用潜力等级,得出福州市居住用地总体容积率偏高、建筑密度偏大的结论,提出在今后城市居住用地规划中应当适当下调容积率或建筑密度,提高居住用地的居住质量和土地利用的经济效益等建议.  相似文献   

Reservoir Characterization of McMurray Formation by 2D Geostatistical Modeling     

Weishan Ren  Jason A. Mclennan  Oy Leuangthong  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Natural Resources Research》2006,15(2):111-117

There is a need to estimate reserve uncertainty for large lease areas. Detailed 3D models of heterogeneity are not necessarily required, but there is a need to integrate all available data into an in-situ reserve estimate with uncertainty. A 2D mapping approach is presented to appraise reserves accounting for multiple variables, multiple data sources, and uncertainty. The approach can be considered in three primary steps: (1) Bayesian updating is used to determine local distributions of uncertainty for each primary variable while integrating multiple secondary information, (2) matrix simulation is employed to jointly and simultaneously simulate multiple collocated variables to determine a derived variable such as OOIP, and (3) probability field simulation then is applied to permit joint simulation of multiple locations. This methodology permits local and global uncertainty assessment while integrating multiple sources of information. An application to the McMurray Formation in Alberta, Canada is demonstrated.  相似文献   

西北地区煤炭资源及开发潜力   总被引：1，自引：5，他引：1  

陈守建  王永  伍跃中  王战  张维吉 《西北地质》2006,39(4):40-56

西北地区蕴藏着十分丰富的煤炭资源,占我国煤炭资源预测总量的76.46%。含煤盆地主要有鄂尔多斯、准噶尔、吐哈、塔北等。其中,鄂尔多斯煤盆地是具有稳定克拉通基底,沉积了石炭一二叠纪华北型海陆交互相含煤地层和三叠一侏罗纪内陆河流一湖泊型陆相含煤地层的双纪巨型含煤盆地;准噶尔煤盆地、吐哈煤盆地、塔北煤盆地是具有稳定陆块基底的侏罗纪内陆湖泊含煤盆地;伊犁煤盆地、尤尔都斯煤盆地、焉誉煤盆地和库米什煤盆地是具有天山华力西期摺皱带基底的山间断陷(坳陷)型含煤盆地;走廊煤盆地群是具有祁连加里东褶皱带基底的山间断陷(坳陷)型含煤盆地.阿拉善地块、柴达木地块晚古生代和中生代亦具备成煤的古地理条件,目前已在柴达木地块北缘和阿拉善地块南缘发现了小型煤盆地群。地块主体为沙漠覆盖,勘探程度低,可作为西北地区煤炭资源的后备潜力区块。 据国家煤炭工业局1998年统计,西北地区煤炭资源保有储量为4035.35X10~8t,其中生产井和在建井保有储量为752.24X10~8t。尚未利用的精查储量为187.69X10~8 t,可供进一步勘探的详查储量为510. 51 X 108 t >普查和找煤储量为2550.91X108t,煤炭资源储量丰富。我国2002年煤炭消费达到13.69XlO~8t. 2003年17.36X10~8t, 2004年达19X10~8t,而西北地区煤产量在全国所占比例甚小,根据中国煤炭工业协会对2004年1月统计,全国煤矿合计原煤产量为11170.75X10~4t,其中西北地区为1585.17X10~4t(内蒙古按全区产量的2/3计算),只占14.19%,西北地区煤炭资源开发潜力巨大。  相似文献   

对比地震记录信噪比的几种估算方法   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

牛聪  詹毅  李辉峰 《物探化探计算技术》2006,28(1):5-9

估算地震记录信噪比的三种方法有SVD法、统计平均分析法和频率域估算法。利用理论模型分别对它们进行对比评价,得出当地震记录有效信号的水平相关性比较好时,三种方法都可以得到较理想的结果;但当地震记录有效信号为非水平时,三种方法均存在不同的问题。在此基础上提出了相关时移法,该方法考虑了地震记录道间有效信号的相位变化,比起其它方法来更能得出好的结果。  相似文献   

A methodology using GIS, aerial photos and remote sensing for loss estimation and flood vulnerability analysis in the Supersano-Ruffano-Nociglia Graben, southern Italy   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

F. Forte  R. O. Strobl  L. Pennetta 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(4):581-594

The impact of calamitous meteoric events and their interaction with the geological and geomorphological environment represent a current problem of the Supersano-Ruffano-Nociglia Graben in southern Italy. Indeed, severe floods take place on a frequent basis not only in autumn and winter, but in summer also. These calamities are not only triggered by exceptional events, but are also amplified by peculiar geological and morpho-structural characteristics of the Graben. Flooding often affects vast agricultural areas and consequently, water-scooping machines cannot remove the rainwater. These events cause warnings and emergency states, involving people as well as socio–economic goods. This study represents an application of a vanguard technique for loss estimation and flood vulnerability analysis, integrating a geographic information system (GIS) with aerial photos and remote sensing methods. The analysis results clearly show that the Graben area is potentially at greatest flood vulnerability, while along the Horsts the flood vulnerability is lower.  相似文献   

Estimation of groundwater recharge using water balance coupled with base-flow-record estimation and stable-base-flow analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Cheng-Haw Lee  Wei-Ping Chen  Ru-Huang Lee 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(1):73-82

In this paper, the long-term mean annual groundwater recharge of Taiwan is estimated with the help of a water-balance approach coupled with the base-flow-record estimation and stable-base-flow analysis. Long-term mean annual groundwater recharge was derived by determining the product of estimated long-term mean annual runoff (the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration) and the base-flow index (BFI). The BFI was calculated from daily streamflow data obtained from streamflow gauging stations in Taiwan. Mapping was achieved by using geographic information systems (GIS) and geostatistics. The presented approach does not require complex hydrogeologic modeling or detailed knowledge of soil characteristics, vegetation cover, or land-use practices. Contours of the resulting long-term mean annual P, BFI, runoff, groundwater recharge, and recharge rates fields are well matched with the topographical distribution of Taiwan, which extends from mountain range toward the alluvial plains of the island. The total groundwater recharge of Taiwan obtained by the employed method is about 18 billion tons per year.An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

Localised Uniform Conditioning (LUC): A New Approach for Direct Modelling of Small Blocks     

Marat. Z. Abzalov 《Mathematical Geology》2006,38(4):393-411

Recoverable mineralisation at a given mining selectivity is traditionally modelled from sparse data grids by non-linear geostatistical techniques such as Uniform Conditioning. This method estimates the tonnage and grade of mineralisation which can be extracted as small selective minable blocks from large blocks (panels), whose grade is modelled by Ordinary Kriging. Uniform Conditioning technique estimates the proportions of recoverable mineralisation in each panel without specifying the actual locations of the economically extractable blocks. This inability to predict a spatial location of the recoverable mineralisation is a major disadvantage of the conventional Uniform Conditioning method. A new approach, called Localised Uniform Conditioning, has been developed to overcome this limitation. This method applies the grade–tonnage relationships modelled by the Uniform Conditioning technique to the spatial grade distribution patterns approximated by direct kriging of the small blocks from the sparse data grid. This approach estimates localised selective mining units grades conforming to the proper grade–tonnage curves obtained by the Uniform Conditioning method as well as maintaining the relative spatial grade distribution pattern indicated by the directly kriged small block grades. The advantage of this approach is essentially dependent upon the data available for ranking the small blocks within a panel in increasing order of their grade. Ordinary Kriging of the small blocks can be used for their ranking providing the kriged estimates produce a meaningful indication of the relative grade pattern. Where the data is sparse and not close to a panel, or their distribution is characterised by a strong short-range variability, the advantages of using the Localised Uniform Conditioning approach are more limited.  相似文献   

New Indices for Characterizing Spatial Models of Ore Deposits by the Use of a Sensitivity Vector and an Influence Factor     

Katsuaki Koike  Setsuro Matsuda 《Mathematical Geology》2006,38(5):541-564

Precise spatial estimation of ore grades and impurity contents from sample data limited in amount and location is indispensable to metallic and nonmetallic resource exploration. One of the advantages of using geostatistics for this purpose is that it can incorporate multivariate data into spatial estimation of one variable. However, there are two weak points concerning technical and post-processing problems. First is the difficulty in application to geologic data in which spatial correlations are not clear because of intrinsic nonlinear behavior. Second is the absence of indices to interpret the mechanisms and factors which govern the spatial distribution. To address these problems, a spatial method of modeling based on a feedforward neural network, SLANS, which recognizes the relationship between the data value and location by considering supplementary attributes such as lithology and biostratigraphy, and a sensitivity analysis using this network were developed. These methods were applied to two case studies, genetic mechanisms of kuroko deposits and quality assessment of a limestone mine. The first case study is a spatial analysis of principal metals of kuroko deposits (volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits) in the Hokuroku district, northern Japan. It was clarified that upward and downward sensitivity vectors were distinguished near the deposits inside and outside the tectonic basin, respectively. Sensitivity analysis for the second case study showed a strong effect of crystalline limestone on the important impurity, P₂O₅ contents. Hydrothermal alteration, which could cause leaching and secondary concentration of phosphorus, is considered to have produced this effect.  相似文献   

确定实时序贯平差自适应因子取值范围的方法   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

黄贤源  隋立芬 《测绘科学技术学报》2006,23(5):325-327

自适应序贯平差过程中,自适应因子的不同取值可以调节模型参数的先验信息和观测信息在平差过程中的利用程度,从而使未知参数的平差值接近真值.但是自适应因子取值过大或者过小都有可能使平差结果超出后验方差估计的范围,这样平差结果虽然接近真值但是却没有现实意义和实用价值.根据后验方差估计的原理,提出了利用后验方差估计确定序贯平差中自适应因子的取值范围;并给出了相应的计算步骤.通过计算实例证明该方法不仅具有实时序贯平差平衡观测值与参数先验值的功能,而且使计算结果具有实际意义.  相似文献