Erosion and reorientation of the Sapodilla Cays,Mesoamerican Reef Belize from 1960 to 2012   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Chris Houser  Tiffany D’Ambrosio  Courtney Bouchard  William Heyman  Kellie Darbonne  Samantha Kuykendall 《自然地理学》2014,35(4):335-354

The Sapodilla Cays Marine Reserve in southern Belize includes nine low-relief sand cays that were first surveyed in 1960. The purpose of this study is to reconstruct a 52-year history of the Sapodilla Cays (1960–2012) using a combination of historical topographic surveys, satellite imagery, and additional field data collection. Results suggest that the majority of islands are eroding with some islands having lost over 70% of their area, and many have become swash aligned, which suggests limited sediment availability. The proportion of area lost on each island is related to the width of the reef platform (to the 5?m isobaths) in the direction of the reef edge, while island area is dependent on the width of the reef platform in the direction of the resultant wind. This suggests that the width of the reef platform is a primary determinant of sediment supply between storms that tend to erode the eastern shoreline of the island through refraction along the reef edge. While storm erosion tends to be concentrated along the eastern shoreline through the loss of sediment offshore, alongshore transport to the lagoon shoreline, and the transfer of sediment to the interior of the island, net shoreline retreat is greatest along the lagoon, suggesting that the relatively small winter “northers” and a lack of sediment supply from the reef lagoon are responsible for the observed erosion. Extrapolations based on contemporary loss-rates suggest that the smallest cays will disappear by 2020, while the largest cays will begin to disappear by the end of century.  相似文献   

Wave pattern induced by a moving atmospheric pressure disturbance     

《Applied Ocean Research》2015

A moving low atmospheric pressure is a main feature of tropical cyclones, which can induce a system of forced water waves and is an important factor that cause water level rise during a storm. A numerical model based on the nonlinear shallow water equations is applied to study the forced waves caused by an atmospheric pressure disturbance moving with a constant velocity over water surface. The effects of the moving speed, the spatial scale and the central pressure drop of the pressure disturbance are discussed. The results show that the wave pattern caused by a moving low-pressure is highly related with its moving speed. The wave pattern undergoes a great change as the moving speed approaches the wave velocity in shallow water. When the moving speed is less than the wave velocity, the distribution of water surface elevation is nearly the same as that of the pressure disturbance, and the maximum of the water surface elevation is located at the center of pressure. When the moving speed is larger than the wave velocity, a triangle shaped wave pattern is formed with a depression occurs in front of the pressure center, and the maximum of the water surface elevation lags behind the center of pressure. As the moving speed increases, the maximum of the water surface elevation firstly increases and then decreases, which reaches a peak when the moving speed is close to the wave velocity. The maximum of water surface elevation is approximately in proportion to the central pressure drop, and slightly affected by the spatial scale of pressure disturbance. Both the central pressure drop and the spatial scale of the pressure disturbance do not significantly affect the forced wave pattern. However, a clear difference can be noticed on the ratio of the maximum water surface elevation in moving pressure situation to that in static situation, when the moving speed is close to the wave velocity. A pressure disturbance with smaller spatial scale and smaller central pressure drop will give a larger ratio when the moving speed is close to the wave velocity.  相似文献   

Relative sea-level rise and the conterminous United States: Consequences of potential land inundation in terms of population at risk and GDP loss   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Toon Haer  Eugenia Kalnay  Michael Kearney  Henk Moll 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1627-1636

Global sea-level rise poses a significant threat not only for coastal communities as development continues but also for national economies. This paper presents estimates of how future changes in relative sea-level rise puts coastal populations at risk, as well as affect overall GDP in the conterminous United States. We use four different sea-level rise scenarios for 2010–2100: a low-end scenario (Extended Linear Trend) a second low-end scenario based on a strong mitigative global warming pathway (Global Warming Coupling 2.6), a high-end scenario based on rising radiative forcing (Global Warming Coupling 8.5) and a plausible very high-end scenario, including accelerated ice cap melting (Global Warming Coupling 8.5+). Relative sea-level rise trends for each US state are employed to obtain more reasonable rates for these areas, as long-term rates vary considerably between the US Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific coasts because of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, local subsidence and sediment compaction, and other vertical land movement. Using these trends for the four scenarios reveals that the relative sea levels predicted by century's end could range – averaged over all states – from 0.2 to 2.0 m above present levels. The estimates for the amount of land inundated vary from 26,000 to 76,000 km². Upwards of 1.8 to 7.4 million people could be at risk, and GDP could potentially decline by USD 70–289 billion. Unfortunately, there are many uncertainties associated with the impact estimates due to the limitations of the input data, especially the input elevation data. Taking this into account, even the most conservative scenario shows a significant impact for the US, emphasizing the importance of adaptation and mitigation.  相似文献   

FGOALS-g3 Model Datasets for CMIP6 Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project     

Yaqi WANG  Zipeng YU  Pengfei LIN  Hailong LIU  Jiangbo JIN  Lijuan LI  Yanli TANG  Li DONG  Kangjun CHEN  Yiwen LI  Qian YANG  Mengrong DING  Yao MENG  Bowen ZHAO  Jilin WEI  Jinfeng MA  Zhikuo SUN 《大气科学进展》2020,37(10):1093-1101

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project(FAFMIP) is an endorsed Model Intercomparison Project in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6). The goal of FAFMIP is to investigate the spread in the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model projections of ocean climate change forced by increased CO_2, including the uncertainties in the simulations of ocean heat uptake, global mean sea level rise due to ocean thermal expansion and dynamic sea level change due to ocean circulation and density changes. The FAFMIP experiments have already been conducted with the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model, gridpoint version 3.0(FGOALS-g3). The model datasets have been submitted to the Earth System Grid Federation(ESGF) node. Here, the details of the experiments,the output variables and some baseline results are presented. Compared with the preliminary results of other models, the evolutions of global mean variables can be reproduced well by FGOALS-g3. The simulations of spatial patterns are also consistent with those of other models in most regions except the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean, indicating large uncertainties in the regional sea level projections of these two regions.  相似文献   

台风大风低矮房屋易损性及智能网格预报的应用     

杨绚  张立生  杨琨  王铸 《气象》2020,46(3):429-440

低矮房屋是受台风影响最为严重的房屋类型之一。从建筑构件可靠性的角度,利用蒙特卡洛方法模拟典型双坡屋面小青瓦砖木结构的低矮房屋(以下简称为"低矮房屋")不同构件对风速的易损性曲线,低矮房屋不同构件的大风易损性为:侧边屋檐迎风屋面屋脊侧边墙角背风屋面。从而构建了台风大风对低矮房屋倒损概率模型,量化风灾对低矮房屋的风险。利用全球灯光数据(DMSP/OLS)对地面粗糙度进行分类,分析不同地面粗糙度低矮房屋易损性的差异。基于我国精细化智能网格预报产品,预估了2017年13号台风天鸽低矮房屋风险等级,并与实际灾情进行检验。结果表明,该模型的预估结果与实际灾情在广东中西部较为吻合,但在广东东部沿海地区产生了一定范围的空报,可能是智能网格风速预报产品在台风东侧风速偏大所导致,其预估结果的TS评分为0.28,空报率为0.62,漏报率为0.48,模型能够在一定程度上预估风灾对低矮房屋的倒损风险。  相似文献   

不同光强下长茎葡萄蕨藻(Caulerpa lentillifera)直立枝和匍匐枝的光生理特征及其对升温的响应     

史晓寒  邹定辉  何泉  李刚 《热带海洋学报》2022,41(5):150-160

海洋绿藻长茎葡萄蕨藻(Caulerpa lentillifera, 又名海葡萄)因具有较高经济和生态价值而备受关注, 光照和温度变化均会改变长茎葡萄蕨藻生理代谢, 最终影响其经济价值和生态功能。文章比较研究不同生长光强下(40、80、120和160 µmol·photons·m^-2·s^-1)长茎葡萄蕨藻不同部位, 即直立枝和匍匐枝的生理和生化特征, 以及其对升温(+3℃、+6℃和+9℃)的响应。结果显示, 光强由40升至120µmol·photons·m^-2·s^-1时对长茎葡萄蕨藻相对生长率(RGR)的影响不显著, 但是光强升至160µmol·photons·m^-2·s^-1时可使RGR降低49%。弱光下(40µmol·photons·m^-2·s^-1)直立枝的叶绿素(Chl a)和类胡萝卜素(Car)含量为匍匐枝的1.52和1.49倍; 直立枝的Chl a和Car含量随生长光强升高而降低, 匍匐枝随光强升高而升高, 二者蛋白含量则均随光强升高而先升高后降低。弱光下直立枝的净光合放氧速率(P_n)和呼吸速率(R_d)分别为匍匐枝的2倍和70%, 但是二者的最大光化学效率(F_V/F_M)差异不显著。光强升高提高直立枝和匍匐枝的P_n和R_d, 但对二者F_V/F_M的影响不显著。同时, 弱光下直立枝的超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)活性比匍匐枝低20%, 二者过氧化氢酶(CAT)活性差异不显著; 光强升高提高直立枝和匍匐枝的SOD活性, 降低CAT活性。研究还发现, 直立枝和匍匐枝的P_n随温度升高而降低, 但前者的降低程度即光合速率随升温的变化率随光强升高而降低, 后者的则随光强升高而升高, 可见温度升高在弱光下对长茎葡萄蕨藻直立枝的负面影响更大, 在强光下则对匍匐枝的负面影响更大。  相似文献   

构筑中部地区高质量协调发展的新格局     

朱翔  何甜  戚伟  张国友  周国华  贺艳华 《地理学报》2022,77(12):3194-3202

中部地区地处中国内陆腹地,承东启西、连南接北,在全国经济发展中处于非常重要的枢纽地位。中部地区崛起取得显著成效,但内部发展不平衡不充分问题依然突出,如何在新时代推动中部地区高质量崛起,构筑区域协调发展新格局,是当前中国亟待解决的现实问题。第24届中国科协年会中部地区协调发展论坛就此进行专题研讨,普遍认为：区域协调发展是新时代国家战略导向,空间规划和产业布局要尊重自然与经济规律,国家战略规划布局应从主体功能区“差异化”向“差异化+系统化”转型。中部地区要以“两横三纵”城市化格局为骨架,积极融入国家区域重大战略;发挥城市群对中部地区的鼎托作用,推动长江中游城市群协同发展,强化武汉都市圈、长株潭都市圈、南昌都市圈等核心支撑作用;发挥比较优势,推进农业、能源、电力、工程机械、装备制造等传统优势产业高质量发展;注重生态环境保护,加强长江中游城市群水安全管理;补齐农业短板,推动乡村振兴,形成城乡统筹、城乡融合发展的新局面。  相似文献   

毛乌素沙地东缘中全新世以来环境变化及其对文明演化的影响初探北大核心CSCD     

柳欣滢  金明  杨帆  马亚鹏  刘慧  孙小云  夏敦胜 《中国沙漠》2022,42(5):92-100

毛乌素沙地全新世风成沉积为探讨气候变化与文明演化之间的关系提供了可能。本文通过对毛乌素沙地东缘全新世中晚期寨山剖面沉积物的磁学参数、色度、CaCO含量和粒度进行分析,重建了该区域环境变化历史,并初步探讨了环境变化对文明演化的影响。结果表明:该区域6 800-1 500 cal a BP分别经历了一次气候暖湿期(6 800-5 500 cal a BP)、一次气候相对暖干期(5 500-4 000 cal a BP)和一次气候相对暖湿期(4 000-1 500 cal a BP)。毛乌素沙地东缘仰韶文化(6 800-5 500 cal a BP)的大扩张与气候暖湿期具有一致性,遗址数量增加;仰韶晚期和龙山时期(5 500-4 000 cal a BP)气候变化频繁,文化复杂多样,期间经历了仰韶文明的衰落和龙山文化的扩张,遗址数量逐渐增加;青铜铁器时代和秦汉时期(4 000-1 500 cal a BP)各民族文化融合发展,人口活动频繁,经济文化都得到较好的发展,遗址不断增加,且数量较大。研究结果指示文明兴衰受环境演化影响,两者在时间上有较好的一致性,但短时期内文明演化对气候变化的响应有滞后性。  相似文献   

长江口海平面上升预测及其对滨海湿地影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

易思  谭金凯  李梦雅  梁鑫鑫  王军 《气候变化研究进展》2017,13(6):598-605

选择吴淞站和吕四站2个验潮站数据,通过统计学方法进行长江口海平面上升预测,从而构建了一套长江口地区较完备的海平面上升情景库：以2013年为基准年份,其最佳预测值的范围在2030年、2050年、2100年分别为50~217 mm,118~430 mm,256~1215 mm。以此情景库为基础,探究海平面上升变化对长江口滨海湿地的影响,结果表明：随着海平面上升值的增加,长江口滨海湿地的面积不断减少;在基于验潮站数据作趋势外推得到的情景下,湿地面积减少较平缓,而在考虑全球变暖背景的情景下,湿地面积减少迅速;且不论在何种情景下,时间尺度越大,湿地减少的面积越大。  相似文献   

Yangtze Delta, China: Taihu lake-level variation since the 1950s, response to sea-level rise and human impact   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Z. Y. Chen  Z. H. Wang 《Environmental Geology》1999,37(4):333-339

 Hydrological records collected from water gauge stations since the 1950s demonstrate that the Taihu lake level is rising. The average rate of the lake-level rise is 0.4–1.1 mm/year during the non-flood season, resulting directly from a rise in sea level. High rates of 3.0–5.0 mm/year of rise are even recorded during the wet season. This indicates increasing human activities such as reclamation, sluicing and embanking, which significantly hinder the expulsion of extra lake water to the coast shortly after a rainfall. Generally, the lake level of the western inlet is higher than that of the eastern outlet. However, the lake-level difference between the west and east has been diminished annually from ∼10–15 cm in the 1950s to <3 cm at the present time. During non-flood seasons, the lake-level difference even appears to be reversed, indicating a retrogression of the lake flow from east to west. It is predicted that the Taihu drainage basin will lose much of its natural water-expelling ability in the next 50 years as the sea level continues to rise, and retrogression will likely occur during the flood season in the near future. Received: 13 March 1998 · Accepted: 21 July 1998  相似文献