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151.
lvaro Gonzlez Miguel Vzquez-Prada Javier B. Gmez Amalio F. Pacheco 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):319
Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data. 相似文献
152.
The evaluation of seismic site response in the urban area of Catania was tackled by selecting test areas having peculiar lithological
and structural features, potentially favourable to large local amplifications of ground motion. The two selected areas are
located in the historical downtown and in the northern part of Catania where the presence of a fault is evident. Site response
was evaluated using spectral ratio technique taking the horizontal- to-vertical component ratio of ambient noise. Inferences
from microtremor measurements are compared with results from synthetic accelerograms and response spectra computed at all
drillings available for this area. Such method is particularly suitable in urban areas where the nature of the outcropping
geological units is masked by city growth and anthropic intervention on the surface geology. The microtremor H/V spectral
ratios evaluated at soft sites located within the downtown profile tend to be smaller than that usually reported in the literature
for such soils. A tendency for amplifications to peaks near 2 Hz is observed only in some sites located on recent alluvial
deposits. Evidences for amplifications of site effects (frequency range 4–8 Hz) were observed in the sampling sites located
on the fault, with a rapid decrease of spectral amplitude just a few tenths of metres away from the discontinuity. Numerical
simulations evidenced the importance of geolithological features at depth levels even greater than 20–30 m. Besides this,
the results strongly confirm the importance of the subsurface geological conditions, in the estimate of seismic hazard at
urban scale. 相似文献
153.
Faisal Hossain 《Natural Hazards》2006,37(3):263-276
The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring
system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks
for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics,
which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the
financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for
measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements.
This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement,
GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system
for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone
developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify
the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty
due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered
by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion
is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction.
A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective
validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This
proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises
to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer. 相似文献
154.
Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity. 相似文献
155.
Substantial damage to water supply systems, including water delivery pipelines, water treatment plants, reservoirs, and water
storage tanks, was reported after the 1999 Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake. This paper first summarizes the damage survey and then
presents the results of seismic fragility analysis for underground pipelines. Construction blueprints of the water delivery
pipelines and repair work orders of 11 townships and cities in the disastrous area were digitized into a Geographical Information
System (GIS) for analysis and assessment. With the aid of the GIS system, we found that PVC pipes made up 86% of water delivery
pipelines while steel, cast iron, ductile iron, PE and others took the rest. Therefore, this paper focuses on the fragility
analysis of PVC pipes. Three different methods were applied to derive the fragility relations between the PVC water pipes
having nominal diameters (approximately inner diameters) greater than or equal to 65 mm and earthquake intensity parameters
such as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The results were then examined with those of other countries. The
discrepancy between our results and the empirical equation used by HAZUS, an earthquake loss estimation software developed
by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was not significant. 相似文献
156.
Assessing the Vibrational Frequencies of the Cathedral of Cologne (Germany) by Means of Ambient Seismic Noise Analysis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Andreas Fäcke Stefano Parolai Sandra M. Richwalski Lothar Stempniewski 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):229-236
Ambient seismic noise measurements were conducted inside the Cathedral of Cologne (Germany) for assessing its frequencies
of vibration and for checking whether these occur in the range where soil amplification is expected. If this is the case,
damages may increase in case of an earthquake due to an increased structural response of the building. Analysis of the ratio
between the horizontal and vertical components of the spectra recorded at stations located inside the building as well as
the ratio between the corresponding components of the spectra recorded simultaneously inside the building and at a reference
station placed in the basement of the cathedral indicated several modes of vibration. Facilitated by these results an assessment
of the seismic vulnerability was attempted for a 2D ground motion scenario using the finite element method. 相似文献
157.
The area of Serravalle, sited in the northern part of the town of Vittorio Veneto (TV), NE Italy, has been the target of a
seismic microzonation campaign. 10 seismic stations have been deployed for a 7 months period to record in continuous mode.
Three stations were installed on bedrock outcrops and seven on sedimentary sites with variable cover thickness. Spectral analyses
have been performed on the collected data-set using the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT, e.g. Andrews, 1986). In particular,
spectral ratios have been calculated for each station relatively to the average of the three reference, bedrock sites. The
spectral ratios provide quantitative estimates of the seismic motion amplifications which occur in each of the monitored sites.
Two sites show high values of amplification, 5 times larger than signal amplitude at the reference sites, in correspondence
of well discernible peak frequencies of 5 Hz. Results for the other stations show smaller amounts of site amplification spreading
over a broad range of frequencies. Sites where the highest amplifications were recorded all lie on the left bank of the Meschio
River and in areas farther away from its outlet into the plain correlating with the presence of thick layers of Quaternary
deposits. 相似文献
158.
A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified Mw magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations
for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is
performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying
the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84%
fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s2 for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s2) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s2) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I0 = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps
show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about
1.5 m/s2), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s2) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s2) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s2 and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and
50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen. 相似文献
159.
160.